Intrinsic value of ManTech International Corporation - MANT

Previous Close

$64.32

  Intrinsic Value

$33.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-48%

Previous close

$64.32

 
Intrinsic value

$33.38

 
Up/down potential

-48%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MANT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.50
  7.25
  7.02
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
Revenue, $m
  2,106
  2,259
  2,417
  2,582
  2,754
  2,932
  3,118
  3,311
  3,512
  3,721
  3,940
  4,168
  4,406
  4,654
  4,913
  5,184
  5,467
  5,764
  6,073
  6,398
  6,737
  7,092
  7,464
  7,854
  8,262
  8,690
  9,139
  9,609
  10,102
  10,619
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,966
  2,099
  2,238
  2,382
  2,532
  2,688
  2,850
  3,019
  3,194
  3,378
  3,443
  3,642
  3,850
  4,067
  4,293
  4,530
  4,777
  5,036
  5,307
  5,590
  5,887
  6,197
  6,522
  6,863
  7,220
  7,594
  7,985
  8,396
  8,827
  9,279
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,974
  2,107
  2,247
  2,391
  2,541
  2,697
  2,859
  3,029
  3,204
  3,388
  3,453
  3,652
  3,861
  4,078
  4,304
  4,541
  4,789
  5,048
  5,319
  5,602
  5,900
  6,210
  6,535
  6,876
  7,234
  7,608
  7,999
  8,411
  8,842
  9,294
Operating income, $m
  132
  151
  171
  191
  213
  235
  258
  283
  308
  334
  487
  516
  545
  577
  609
  643
  679
  716
  754
  795
  838
  882
  929
  978
  1,029
  1,083
  1,139
  1,198
  1,260
  1,325
EBITDA, $m
  287
  308
  330
  353
  377
  402
  428
  454
  482
  512
  542
  574
  607
  641
  677
  715
  755
  796
  839
  884
  931
  981
  1,033
  1,087
  1,144
  1,204
  1,266
  1,332
  1,400
  1,473
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  5
  9
  13
  17
  21
  26
  30
  35
  40
  46
  51
  57
  63
  69
  76
  83
  90
  98
  106
  114
  123
  132
  141
  151
  161
  172
  184
  196
  208
Earnings before tax, $m
  131
  146
  162
  179
  196
  214
  233
  252
  272
  294
  441
  464
  488
  513
  540
  567
  596
  625
  657
  689
  724
  760
  797
  837
  878
  921
  967
  1,014
  1,064
  1,117
Tax expense, $m
  35
  40
  44
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  79
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  287
  302
Net income, $m
  96
  107
  118
  131
  143
  156
  170
  184
  199
  214
  322
  339
  356
  375
  394
  414
  435
  457
  479
  503
  528
  555
  582
  611
  641
  673
  706
  741
  777
  815

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,939
  2,080
  2,226
  2,378
  2,536
  2,700
  2,871
  3,049
  3,234
  3,427
  3,628
  3,838
  4,057
  4,285
  4,524
  4,774
  5,035
  5,307
  5,593
  5,891
  6,203
  6,531
  6,873
  7,232
  7,608
  8,002
  8,415
  8,848
  9,302
  9,778
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,939
  2,080
  2,226
  2,378
  2,536
  2,700
  2,871
  3,049
  3,234
  3,427
  3,628
  3,838
  4,057
  4,285
  4,524
  4,774
  5,035
  5,307
  5,593
  5,891
  6,203
  6,531
  6,873
  7,232
  7,608
  8,002
  8,415
  8,848
  9,302
  9,778
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
Average production assets, $m
  735
  788
  844
  901
  961
  1,023
  1,088
  1,155
  1,226
  1,299
  1,375
  1,455
  1,538
  1,624
  1,715
  1,809
  1,908
  2,012
  2,120
  2,233
  2,351
  2,475
  2,605
  2,741
  2,884
  3,033
  3,190
  3,354
  3,526
  3,706
Working capital, $m
  206
  221
  237
  253
  270
  287
  306
  324
  344
  365
  386
  408
  432
  456
  482
  508
  536
  565
  595
  627
  660
  695
  732
  770
  810
  852
  896
  942
  990
  1,041
Total debt, $m
  37
  69
  101
  135
  170
  207
  245
  285
  326
  369
  414
  461
  509
  560
  614
  669
  728
  788
  852
  919
  988
  1,061
  1,138
  1,218
  1,301
  1,389
  1,481
  1,578
  1,679
  1,785
Total liabilities, $m
  432
  464
  496
  530
  565
  602
  640
  680
  721
  764
  809
  856
  905
  956
  1,009
  1,065
  1,123
  1,184
  1,247
  1,314
  1,383
  1,456
  1,533
  1,613
  1,697
  1,784
  1,877
  1,973
  2,074
  2,181
Total equity, $m
  1,507
  1,616
  1,729
  1,847
  1,970
  2,098
  2,231
  2,369
  2,513
  2,663
  2,819
  2,982
  3,152
  3,330
  3,515
  3,709
  3,912
  4,124
  4,345
  4,577
  4,820
  5,074
  5,341
  5,619
  5,912
  6,218
  6,539
  6,875
  7,228
  7,598
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,939
  2,080
  2,225
  2,377
  2,535
  2,700
  2,871
  3,049
  3,234
  3,427
  3,628
  3,838
  4,057
  4,286
  4,524
  4,774
  5,035
  5,308
  5,592
  5,891
  6,203
  6,530
  6,874
  7,232
  7,609
  8,002
  8,416
  8,848
  9,302
  9,779
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.040
  0.060
  0.070
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777
  0.777

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  96
  107
  118
  131
  143
  156
  170
  184
  199
  214
  322
  339
  356
  375
  394
  414
  435
  457
  479
  503
  528
  555
  582
  611
  641
  673
  706
  741
  777
  815
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  155
  157
  159
  162
  164
  167
  169
  172
  175
  178
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  140
  148
Funds from operations, $m
  251
  264
  278
  292
  307
  323
  339
  356
  374
  392
  377
  397
  418
  439
  462
  486
  511
  537
  564
  592
  622
  653
  686
  720
  756
  793
  833
  874
  917
  963
Change in working capital, $m
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
Cash from operations, $m
  236
  249
  262
  276
  290
  305
  321
  337
  354
  371
  356
  375
  394
  415
  437
  459
  483
  508
  533
  561
  589
  618
  649
  682
  716
  752
  789
  828
  869
  912
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -140
New CAPEX, $m
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -106
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -264
  -278
  -291
  -306
  -320
Free cash flow, $m
  157
  166
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215
  226
  238
  249
  228
  240
  253
  267
  282
  296
  312
  328
  345
  363
  381
  401
  421
  442
  464
  487
  512
  537
  563
  591
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  40
  33
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  197
  200
  208
  219
  230
  241
  253
  266
  279
  292
  272
  287
  302
  318
  335
  352
  370
  389
  409
  429
  451
  474
  497
  522
  548
  575
  604
  633
  665
  697
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -106
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -306
  -321
  -336
  -353
  -370
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  91
  91
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  135
  142
  116
  124
  132
  141
  149
  158
  168
  177
  187
  198
  208
  219
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
  328
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  87
  83
  82
  83
  83
  83
  82
  80
  78
  75
  55
  53
  50
  47
  44
  40
  36
  33
  29
  25
  22
  18
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.6
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5
  99.5

ManTech International Corporation provides technologies and solutions for national security programs for the intelligence community; the departments of Defense, State, Homeland Security, Health and Human Services, Veteran Affairs and Justice, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI); the space community, and other the United States Government customers. It delivers an array of information technology (IT) and technical services solutions. Its solutions and services include cybersecurity; software and systems development; enterprise IT; multi-disciplined intelligence; command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance; program protection and mission assurance; systems engineering; supply chain management and logistics; test and evaluation; training, and management consulting. It supports programs of national significance, such as military readiness and wellness, terrorist threat detection, information security and border protection.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ManTech International Corporation (MANT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 44.5
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 26
Price to Free Cash Flow 29
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 91
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 4.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Operating Margin 5.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Net Profit Margin 3.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 37.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Payout Ratio 57.1%

MANT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MANT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1959 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ManTech International Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of ManTech International Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MANT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MANT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ManTech International Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ManTech International Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MANT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $8 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MANT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 12.4% for ManTech International Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ManTech International Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MANT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MANT are equal to 34.9%.

Life of production assets of 25.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ManTech International Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MANT is equal to 9.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1401.194 million for ManTech International Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.798 million for ManTech International Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ManTech International Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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