Intrinsic value of ManTech International Cl A - MANT

Previous Close

$46.19

  Intrinsic Value

$43.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-6%

  Value-price divergence*

+39%

Previous close

$46.19

 
Intrinsic value

$43.39

 
Up/down potential

-6%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+39%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MANT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.35
  3.20
  3.38
  3.54
  3.69
  3.82
  3.94
  4.04
  4.14
  4.23
  4.30
  4.37
  4.44
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  1,602
  1,653
  1,709
  1,770
  1,835
  1,905
  1,980
  2,060
  2,145
  2,236
  2,332
  2,434
  2,542
  2,656
  2,777
  2,904
  3,039
  3,181
  3,330
  3,488
  3,654
  3,828
  4,012
  4,206
  4,409
  4,623
  4,848
  5,085
  5,334
  5,596
  5,871
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,460
  1,506
  1,556
  1,610
  1,668
  1,730
  1,796
  1,866
  1,941
  2,020
  2,009
  2,098
  2,192
  2,292
  2,397
  2,508
  2,625
  2,748
  2,878
  3,015
  3,160
  3,311
  3,471
  3,639
  3,816
  4,002
  4,197
  4,402
  4,618
  4,845
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  174
  178
  182
  187
  192
  196
  201
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,511
  1,558
  1,607
  1,659
  1,716
  1,777
  1,841
  1,910
  1,983
  2,061
  2,143
  2,135
  2,227
  2,324
  2,428
  2,536
  2,651
  2,771
  2,898
  3,031
  3,172
  3,321
  3,476
  3,640
  3,813
  3,994
  4,184
  4,384
  4,594
  4,814
  5,046
Operating income, $m
  91
  95
  102
  110
  119
  129
  139
  150
  162
  175
  189
  299
  315
  332
  349
  368
  388
  410
  432
  456
  481
  507
  536
  565
  597
  630
  664
  701
  740
  781
  824
EBITDA, $m
  121
  196
  204
  212
  221
  231
  242
  253
  266
  279
  293
  308
  324
  341
  360
  379
  399
  421
  444
  469
  494
  521
  550
  581
  613
  647
  682
  720
  760
  802
  846
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
Earnings before tax, $m
  90
  95
  102
  109
  118
  127
  137
  147
  159
  171
  184
  294
  308
  324
  341
  359
  378
  398
  420
  442
  466
  492
  518
  546
  576
  608
  641
  676
  713
  752
  793
Tax expense, $m
  34
  26
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  183
  193
  203
  214
Net income, $m
  56
  69
  74
  80
  86
  93
  100
  107
  116
  125
  134
  214
  225
  237
  249
  262
  276
  291
  306
  323
  340
  359
  378
  399
  421
  444
  468
  494
  521
  549
  579

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,598
  1,582
  1,636
  1,693
  1,756
  1,823
  1,895
  1,971
  2,053
  2,140
  2,232
  2,329
  2,433
  2,542
  2,657
  2,779
  2,908
  3,044
  3,187
  3,337
  3,496
  3,663
  3,839
  4,025
  4,219
  4,424
  4,640
  4,866
  5,105
  5,355
  5,618
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,533
  1,582
  1,636
  1,693
  1,756
  1,823
  1,895
  1,971
  2,053
  2,140
  2,232
  2,329
  2,433
  2,542
  2,657
  2,779
  2,908
  3,044
  3,187
  3,337
  3,496
  3,663
  3,839
  4,025
  4,219
  4,424
  4,640
  4,866
  5,105
  5,355
  5,618
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
  1.045
Average production assets, $m
  177
  182
  188
  195
  202
  210
  218
  227
  236
  246
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  334
  350
  366
  384
  402
  421
  441
  463
  485
  509
  533
  559
  587
  616
  646
Working capital, $m
  229
  169
  174
  181
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  248
  259
  271
  283
  296
  310
  324
  340
  356
  373
  390
  409
  429
  450
  472
  495
  519
  544
  571
  599
Total debt, $m
  0
  11
  23
  37
  51
  67
  84
  101
  120
  140
  162
  184
  208
  234
  261
  289
  319
  350
  383
  418
  455
  494
  535
  578
  623
  670
  720
  773
  828
  886
  947
Total liabilities, $m
  357
  367
  379
  393
  407
  423
  440
  457
  476
  496
  518
  540
  564
  590
  617
  645
  675
  706
  739
  774
  811
  850
  891
  934
  979
  1,026
  1,076
  1,129
  1,184
  1,242
  1,303
Total equity, $m
  1,242
  1,215
  1,256
  1,301
  1,349
  1,400
  1,455
  1,514
  1,577
  1,643
  1,714
  1,789
  1,868
  1,952
  2,041
  2,135
  2,233
  2,338
  2,447
  2,563
  2,685
  2,813
  2,949
  3,091
  3,240
  3,398
  3,563
  3,737
  3,920
  4,113
  4,315
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,599
  1,582
  1,635
  1,694
  1,756
  1,823
  1,895
  1,971
  2,053
  2,139
  2,232
  2,329
  2,432
  2,542
  2,658
  2,780
  2,908
  3,044
  3,186
  3,337
  3,496
  3,663
  3,840
  4,025
  4,219
  4,424
  4,639
  4,866
  5,104
  5,355
  5,618
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768
  0.768

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  56
  69
  74
  80
  86
  93
  100
  107
  116
  125
  134
  214
  225
  237
  249
  262
  276
  291
  306
  323
  340
  359
  378
  399
  421
  444
  468
  494
  521
  549
  579
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  102
  102
  102
  102
  103
  103
  103
  103
  104
  104
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Funds from operations, $m
  85
  171
  176
  182
  188
  195
  203
  211
  219
  229
  238
  223
  235
  247
  259
  273
  287
  302
  319
  336
  354
  373
  393
  414
  437
  461
  486
  512
  540
  569
  601
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Cash from operations, $m
  96
  166
  170
  176
  182
  188
  195
  202
  211
  219
  229
  213
  224
  235
  247
  260
  274
  288
  303
  320
  337
  355
  374
  395
  416
  439
  463
  488
  515
  543
  572
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -72
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
Free cash flow, $m
  24
  155
  158
  163
  168
  174
  180
  186
  194
  201
  210
  193
  203
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  275
  290
  306
  322
  340
  359
  378
  399
  421
  444
  469
  494
  522
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  32
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  56
  166
  171
  176
  182
  189
  196
  204
  213
  222
  231
  216
  227
  238
  251
  264
  278
  293
  308
  325
  343
  361
  381
  402
  423
  447
  471
  497
  524
  553
  583
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -58
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  193
  130
  132
  134
  138
  141
  145
  150
  155
  161
  141
  147
  154
  162
  170
  179
  189
  199
  209
  221
  233
  246
  259
  274
  289
  306
  323
  341
  360
  381
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  185
  119
  115
  111
  107
  102
  98
  94
  89
  84
  67
  63
  59
  54
  50
  46
  41
  37
  32
  28
  24
  20
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ManTech International Corporation provides technologies and solutions for national security programs for the intelligence community; the departments of Defense, State, Homeland Security, Health and Human Services, Veteran Affairs and Justice, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI); the space community, and other the United States Government customers. It delivers an array of information technology (IT) and technical services solutions. Its solutions and services include cybersecurity; software and systems development; enterprise IT; multi-disciplined intelligence; command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance; program protection and mission assurance; systems engineering; supply chain management and logistics; test and evaluation; training, and management consulting. It supports programs of national significance, such as military readiness and wellness, terrorist threat detection, information security and border protection.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ManTech International Cl A (MANT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 91
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 4.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Operating Margin 5.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Net Profit Margin 3.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 37.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Payout Ratio 57.1%

MANT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MANT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1602 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ManTech International Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ManTech International Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MANT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MANT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ManTech International Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ManTech International Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MANT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $96 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MANT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ManTech International Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ManTech International Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MANT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MANT are equal to 11%.

Life of production assets of 37.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ManTech International Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MANT is equal to 10.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1242 million for ManTech International Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.175 million for ManTech International Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ManTech International Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ManTech Completes the Acquisition of InfoZen   [Oct-02-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ManTech International snaps up InfoZen in $180M perfect storm   [02:52PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ManTech to Acquire InfoZen   [09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Symantec CEO on Ransomware Attacks, Recent Acquisitions   [Aug-30-17 07:49PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ ManTech beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-04-17 01:56AM  Associated Press]
▶ ManTech Wins $200 Million DARPA STO Multi-Year IDIQ Award   [Aug-01-17 08:14AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 5 Dependable Tech Stocks in a Volatile Industry   [Jun-15-17 03:32PM  Zacks]
▶ The 3 Best Dividend Stocks in Cybersecurity   [May-16-17 04:42PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ManTech beats Street 1Q forecasts   [May-03-17 05:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ These Greater Washington companies may be most affected by Trump's tax reform   [Apr-26-17 03:39PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ManTech meets 4Q profit forecasts   [05:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ ManTech Acquires Edaptive Systems   [Dec-19-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Selling Mantech International Corp (MANT)   [Dec-12-16 01:10PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of MANT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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