Intrinsic value of ManTech International Cl A - MANT

Previous Close

$56.90

  Intrinsic Value

$23.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-59%

Previous close

$56.90

 
Intrinsic value

$23.43

 
Up/down potential

-59%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MANT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.70
  17.33
  16.10
  14.99
  13.99
  13.09
  12.28
  11.55
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.28
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
Revenue, $m
  2,038
  2,391
  2,776
  3,192
  3,639
  4,115
  4,621
  5,154
  5,716
  6,305
  6,922
  7,565
  8,236
  8,935
  9,662
  10,417
  11,203
  12,019
  12,867
  13,748
  14,665
  15,618
  16,609
  17,642
  18,716
  19,836
  21,004
  22,221
  23,492
  24,818
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,888
  2,193
  2,525
  2,885
  3,270
  3,681
  4,118
  4,579
  5,064
  5,573
  5,977
  6,533
  7,112
  7,716
  8,343
  8,996
  9,674
  10,378
  11,111
  11,872
  12,663
  13,486
  14,343
  15,234
  16,162
  17,129
  18,137
  19,188
  20,285
  21,431
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,898
  2,203
  2,536
  2,896
  3,281
  3,692
  4,130
  4,591
  5,076
  5,585
  5,990
  6,546
  7,125
  7,730
  8,357
  9,010
  9,688
  10,393
  11,126
  11,887
  12,679
  13,502
  14,359
  15,251
  16,179
  17,147
  18,155
  19,206
  20,304
  21,450
Operating income, $m
  140
  188
  240
  297
  358
  422
  491
  564
  640
  720
  932
  1,020
  1,111
  1,206
  1,305
  1,408
  1,515
  1,626
  1,741
  1,861
  1,986
  2,115
  2,250
  2,391
  2,537
  2,690
  2,849
  3,014
  3,187
  3,368
EBITDA, $m
  293
  345
  402
  464
  530
  601
  676
  755
  838
  925
  1,017
  1,112
  1,212
  1,316
  1,423
  1,535
  1,652
  1,773
  1,899
  2,030
  2,166
  2,307
  2,454
  2,607
  2,767
  2,933
  3,106
  3,287
  3,476
  3,672
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  3
  9
  17
  25
  33
  43
  53
  63
  74
  86
  98
  111
  124
  138
  153
  168
  184
  200
  217
  235
  253
  272
  292
  313
  334
  356
  380
  404
  429
  456
Earnings before tax, $m
  137
  179
  224
  272
  324
  380
  438
  501
  566
  634
  834
  909
  986
  1,068
  1,152
  1,240
  1,331
  1,426
  1,524
  1,626
  1,733
  1,843
  1,959
  2,078
  2,203
  2,333
  2,469
  2,611
  2,758
  2,912
Tax expense, $m
  37
  48
  60
  73
  88
  103
  118
  135
  153
  171
  225
  245
  266
  288
  311
  335
  359
  385
  411
  439
  468
  498
  529
  561
  595
  630
  667
  705
  745
  786
Net income, $m
  100
  130
  163
  199
  237
  277
  320
  365
  413
  463
  609
  663
  720
  779
  841
  905
  971
  1,041
  1,112
  1,187
  1,265
  1,346
  1,430
  1,517
  1,608
  1,703
  1,802
  1,906
  2,013
  2,126

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,071
  2,430
  2,821
  3,244
  3,698
  4,182
  4,696
  5,238
  5,809
  6,408
  7,034
  7,688
  8,370
  9,080
  9,819
  10,587
  11,385
  12,214
  13,076
  13,972
  14,903
  15,872
  16,880
  17,928
  19,021
  20,159
  21,345
  22,583
  23,874
  25,221
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,071
  2,430
  2,821
  3,244
  3,698
  4,182
  4,696
  5,238
  5,809
  6,408
  7,034
  7,688
  8,370
  9,080
  9,819
  10,587
  11,385
  12,214
  13,076
  13,972
  14,903
  15,872
  16,880
  17,928
  19,021
  20,159
  21,345
  22,583
  23,874
  25,221
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
  0.984
Average production assets, $m
  750
  880
  1,022
  1,175
  1,339
  1,514
  1,700
  1,897
  2,104
  2,320
  2,547
  2,784
  3,031
  3,288
  3,556
  3,834
  4,123
  4,423
  4,735
  5,059
  5,397
  5,747
  6,112
  6,492
  6,888
  7,300
  7,729
  8,177
  8,645
  9,133
Working capital, $m
  153
  179
  208
  239
  273
  309
  347
  387
  429
  473
  519
  567
  618
  670
  725
  781
  840
  901
  965
  1,031
  1,100
  1,171
  1,246
  1,323
  1,404
  1,488
  1,575
  1,667
  1,762
  1,861
Total debt, $m
  106
  188
  278
  376
  480
  591
  710
  834
  966
  1,103
  1,247
  1,398
  1,555
  1,718
  1,888
  2,064
  2,248
  2,439
  2,637
  2,843
  3,057
  3,280
  3,512
  3,753
  4,004
  4,266
  4,539
  4,824
  5,120
  5,430
Total liabilities, $m
  476
  559
  649
  746
  851
  962
  1,080
  1,205
  1,336
  1,474
  1,618
  1,768
  1,925
  2,088
  2,258
  2,435
  2,619
  2,809
  3,008
  3,214
  3,428
  3,651
  3,882
  4,124
  4,375
  4,637
  4,909
  5,194
  5,491
  5,801
Total equity, $m
  1,595
  1,871
  2,172
  2,498
  2,847
  3,220
  3,616
  4,033
  4,473
  4,934
  5,416
  5,920
  6,445
  6,992
  7,561
  8,152
  8,766
  9,405
  10,069
  10,758
  11,476
  12,221
  12,997
  13,805
  14,646
  15,522
  16,436
  17,389
  18,383
  19,420
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,071
  2,430
  2,821
  3,244
  3,698
  4,182
  4,696
  5,238
  5,809
  6,408
  7,034
  7,688
  8,370
  9,080
  9,819
  10,587
  11,385
  12,214
  13,077
  13,972
  14,904
  15,872
  16,879
  17,929
  19,021
  20,159
  21,345
  22,583
  23,874
  25,221
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.070
  0.100
  0.130
  0.150
  0.170
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770
  0.770

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  100
  130
  163
  199
  237
  277
  320
  365
  413
  463
  609
  663
  720
  779
  841
  905
  971
  1,041
  1,112
  1,187
  1,265
  1,346
  1,430
  1,517
  1,608
  1,703
  1,802
  1,906
  2,013
  2,126
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  153
  157
  162
  167
  173
  178
  185
  191
  198
  205
  85
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  137
  147
  158
  169
  180
  192
  204
  216
  230
  243
  258
  273
  288
  304
Funds from operations, $m
  253
  288
  325
  366
  409
  456
  505
  557
  611
  668
  694
  756
  821
  889
  959
  1,033
  1,109
  1,188
  1,270
  1,356
  1,445
  1,537
  1,633
  1,734
  1,838
  1,947
  2,060
  2,178
  2,302
  2,430
Change in working capital, $m
  24
  26
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
Cash from operations, $m
  229
  261
  296
  334
  376
  420
  467
  516
  569
  624
  647
  708
  771
  837
  905
  976
  1,050
  1,127
  1,207
  1,290
  1,376
  1,466
  1,559
  1,656
  1,757
  1,863
  1,972
  2,087
  2,206
  2,331
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -45
  -50
  -57
  -63
  -70
  -77
  -85
  -93
  -101
  -110
  -119
  -128
  -137
  -147
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -192
  -204
  -216
  -230
  -243
  -258
  -273
  -288
New CAPEX, $m
  -118
  -130
  -142
  -153
  -164
  -175
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -278
  -289
  -300
  -312
  -324
  -337
  -351
  -365
  -380
  -396
  -412
  -430
  -448
  -468
  -488
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -139
  -155
  -171
  -187
  -203
  -220
  -236
  -253
  -270
  -287
  -304
  -322
  -340
  -358
  -377
  -397
  -417
  -437
  -459
  -482
  -506
  -531
  -557
  -584
  -612
  -642
  -673
  -706
  -741
  -776
Free cash flow, $m
  90
  106
  125
  147
  172
  200
  230
  263
  299
  337
  343
  386
  431
  478
  528
  579
  633
  689
  747
  808
  870
  935
  1,003
  1,073
  1,145
  1,221
  1,300
  1,381
  1,466
  1,555
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  75
  83
  90
  97
  104
  111
  118
  125
  131
  138
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  297
  310
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  152
  146
  138
  127
  113
  96
  75
  52
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  227
  229
  228
  224
  217
  207
  193
  177
  157
  138
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  297
  310
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  317
  335
  353
  372
  389
  407
  424
  440
  457
  475
  487
  536
  588
  642
  698
  756
  817
  880
  945
  1,014
  1,084
  1,158
  1,234
  1,314
  1,397
  1,483
  1,572
  1,666
  1,763
  1,865
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -252
  -276
  -301
  -326
  -349
  -373
  -395
  -418
  -440
  -461
  -482
  -504
  -525
  -547
  -569
  -591
  -615
  -639
  -664
  -690
  -717
  -746
  -776
  -808
  -841
  -876
  -914
  -953
  -994
  -1,038
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  65
  58
  52
  46
  40
  34
  28
  23
  17
  14
  5
  33
  63
  95
  129
  165
  202
  241
  282
  324
  367
  412
  458
  506
  556
  606
  659
  713
  769
  827
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  62
  53
  45
  38
  31
  25
  19
  14
  10
  7
  2
  14
  24
  32
  38
  42
  44
  44
  43
  41
  38
  34
  30
  26
  22
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  90.6
  83.5
  78.2
  74.2
  71.2
  69.1
  67.6
  66.7
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3
  66.3

ManTech International Corporation provides technologies and solutions for national security programs for the intelligence community; the departments of Defense, State, Homeland Security, Health and Human Services, Veteran Affairs and Justice, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI); the space community, and other the United States Government customers. It delivers an array of information technology (IT) and technical services solutions. Its solutions and services include cybersecurity; software and systems development; enterprise IT; multi-disciplined intelligence; command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance; program protection and mission assurance; systems engineering; supply chain management and logistics; test and evaluation; training, and management consulting. It supports programs of national significance, such as military readiness and wellness, terrorist threat detection, information security and border protection.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ManTech International Cl A (MANT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 39.4
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 91
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 4.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Operating Margin 5.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Net Profit Margin 3.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 37.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Payout Ratio 57.1%

MANT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MANT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1717.018 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ManTech International Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of ManTech International Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MANT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MANT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ManTech International Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ManTech International Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MANT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $10 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MANT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.9% for ManTech International Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ManTech International Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MANT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MANT are equal to 36.8%.

Life of production assets of 36.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ManTech International Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MANT is equal to 7.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1342.974 million for ManTech International Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.556 million for ManTech International Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ManTech International Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ ManTech: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:04AM  Associated Press]
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▶ Ex-GDIT exec lands at ManTech   [Sep-27-18 02:59PM  American City Business Journals]
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▶ ManTech: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Former CSRA chief exec joins Carlyle Group   [Jun-28-18 02:43PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ManTech taps new leader for national security, federal civilian and health IT business   [Jun-12-18 11:44AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Is the Pentagon taking over security clearances a good idea?   [Jun-04-18 02:48PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 5 Defense Stocks to Tap US-North Korea Denuclearization Row   [May-17-18 03:10PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Why Googles Pentagon mutiny should worry government contractors   [May-11-18 01:59PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ManTech: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 05:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ 4 Cyber-Security Stocks in Focus Post Expedia-Orbitz Hack   [Mar-26-18 09:35AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ ManTech Earns CMMI® Maturity Level 4 for Development   [Mar-14-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 4 Things ManTech Wants Investors To Know   [Feb-26-18 11:32AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ManTech tops 4Q profit forecasts   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ ManTech Wins $133 Million Contract With U.S. Army INSCOM   [Jan-30-18 10:05AM  GlobeNewswire]

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