Intrinsic value of MCBC Holdings - MCFT

Previous Close

$22.41

  Intrinsic Value

$22.44

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

0%

Previous close

$22.41

 
Intrinsic value

$22.44

 
Up/down potential

0%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MCFT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.15
  9.40
  8.96
  8.56
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
Revenue, $m
  229
  251
  273
  296
  321
  346
  372
  400
  428
  457
  488
  520
  553
  588
  624
  661
  700
  741
  783
  828
  874
  922
  973
  1,026
  1,081
  1,139
  1,200
  1,263
  1,329
  1,399
  1,472
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  225
  245
  266
  287
  310
  333
  357
  383
  409
  436
  461
  491
  521
  553
  586
  621
  657
  695
  734
  775
  818
  863
  910
  959
  1,010
  1,064
  1,120
  1,179
  1,241
  1,305
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  195
  225
  245
  266
  287
  310
  333
  357
  383
  409
  436
  461
  491
  521
  553
  586
  621
  657
  695
  734
  775
  818
  863
  910
  959
  1,010
  1,064
  1,120
  1,179
  1,241
  1,305
Operating income, $m
  34
  25
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  59
  63
  66
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
EBITDA, $m
  37
  30
  33
  36
  38
  41
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  136
  144
  151
  159
  168
  176
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
Earnings before tax, $m
  31
  24
  26
  29
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
Tax expense, $m
  11
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Net income, $m
  20
  17
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  98
  103
  109

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  83
  86
  94
  102
  111
  119
  128
  138
  148
  158
  168
  179
  191
  203
  215
  228
  242
  256
  270
  286
  302
  318
  336
  354
  373
  393
  414
  436
  459
  483
  508
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  79
  86
  94
  102
  111
  119
  128
  138
  148
  158
  168
  179
  191
  203
  215
  228
  242
  256
  270
  286
  302
  318
  336
  354
  373
  393
  414
  436
  459
  483
  508
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.899
  2.919
  2.904
  2.902
  2.892
  2.908
  2.906
  2.899
  2.892
  2.892
  2.905
  2.905
  2.895
  2.897
  2.902
  2.899
  2.893
  2.895
  2.900
  2.895
  2.894
  2.899
  2.896
  2.898
  2.898
  2.898
  2.899
  2.897
  2.895
  2.896
  2.898
Average production assets, $m
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  114
  121
  127
  134
  142
  149
  157
  166
  174
  183
  193
  203
Working capital, $m
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
Total debt, $m
  34
  36
  43
  50
  57
  64
  72
  80
  88
  97
  106
  115
  125
  135
  145
  156
  168
  180
  192
  205
  219
  233
  248
  263
  279
  296
  314
  332
  352
  372
  393
Total liabilities, $m
  72
  73
  80
  87
  94
  101
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
  152
  162
  172
  182
  193
  205
  217
  229
  242
  256
  270
  285
  300
  316
  333
  351
  369
  389
  409
  430
Total equity, $m
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  84
  86
  94
  103
  111
  119
  129
  138
  147
  158
  169
  179
  191
  203
  215
  228
  242
  256
  270
  285
  302
  318
  336
  354
  373
  393
  414
  435
  459
  482
  507
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.833
  2.760
  2.990
  3.200
  3.380
  3.540
  3.680
  3.810
  3.930
  4.040
  4.130
  4.220
  4.300
  4.380
  4.450
  4.510
  4.570
  4.630
  4.680
  4.730
  4.770
  4.810
  4.850
  4.890
  4.930
  4.960
  4.990
  5.020
  5.050
  5.070
  5.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.101
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  20
  17
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  98
  103
  109
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
Funds from operations, $m
  23
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  26
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
Free cash flow, $m
  22
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -18
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -18
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -20
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  99
  105
  110
  116
  121
Discount rate, %
 
  4.50
  4.73
  4.96
  5.21
  5.47
  5.74
  6.03
  6.33
  6.65
  6.98
  7.33
  7.70
  8.08
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.82
  10.31
  10.83
  11.37
  11.94
  12.54
  13.16
  13.82
  14.51
  15.24
  16.00
  16.80
  17.64
  18.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  23
  24
  24
  24
  24
  24
  24
  23
  23
  22
  21
  20
  18
  17
  16
  14
  13
  11
  10
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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MCBC Holdings, Inc. (MCBC) is a holding company. The Company is a designer and manufacturer of inboard tournament ski boats and V-drive runabouts under the MasterCraft brand. The Company operates through two segments: MasterCraft and Hydra-Sports. The MasterCraft product brand consists of recreational performance boats primarily used for water skiing, wakeboarding and wake surfing, and general recreational boating. The Company distributes the MasterCraft product brand through its dealer network. The Company manufactures a range of Hydra-Sports recreational fishing boats. It also leases a parts warehouse in the United Kingdom to expedite service, primarily to dealers and customers in the European Union. Its MasterCraft-branded portfolio includes Star Series, XSeries and NXT boats. In addition, MCBC offers various accessories, including trailers and aftermarket parts. The Company operates primarily through its subsidiaries, MasterCraft Boat Company, LLC and MCBC Hydra Boats, LLC.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MCBC Holdings (MCFT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.9
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 34.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 19
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 250%
Total Debt to Equity 283.3%
Interest Coverage 17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 25.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Return On Total Capital 44.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.1%
Return On Equity 1000%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 311.3%
Asset Turnover 2.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.3%
EBITDA Margin 15.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Operating Margin 14.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Effective Tax Rate 35.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

MCFT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MCFT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $229 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MCBC Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of MCBC Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MCFT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.5%, whose default value for MCFT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MCBC Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MCBC Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MCFT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MCFT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for MCBC Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MCBC Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MCFT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MCFT are equal to 13.8%.

Life of production assets of 20.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MCBC Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MCFT is equal to -6.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $12 million for MCBC Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.637 million for MCBC Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MCBC Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
MBUU Malibu Boats C 29.50 46.23  buy
MPX Marine Product 15.01 9.41  sell
BC Brunswick 55.59 102.17  str.buy
TWIN Twin Disc 26.35 2.59  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for November 24th   [Nov-24-17 08:43AM  Zacks]
▶ MCBC Holdings misses 1Q profit forecasts   [Nov-09-17 04:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ MCBC Holdings Names New President of NauticStar   [Oct-13-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ MasterCraft Joins American Boatbuilders Association   [Oct-11-17 12:57PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ When Should You Sell MCBC Holdings Inc (MCFT)?   [Oct-03-17 02:36PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Is It Time To Buy MCBC Holdings Inc (MCFT)?   [09:56AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ MCBC Holdings tops Street 4Q forecasts   [Sep-07-17 09:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ MasterCraft Announces New 2018 Boat Features   [Jul-05-17 01:49PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MCBC Holdings, Inc. : May 16, 2017   [May-16-17 12:55PM  Capital Cube]
▶ MCBC Holdings misses Street 3Q forecasts   [05:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ MasterCraft and Malibu Settle Patent Litigation   [May-02-17 05:34PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ MCBC Holdings misses Street 2Q forecasts   [Feb-09-17 06:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ MasterCrafts New XT21 Ushers in New Era of Crossover Legacy   [Jan-10-17 01:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ MCBC Holdings, Inc. Announces Pricing of Secondary Offering   [Dec-16-16 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is USA Technologies, Inc. (USAT) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-12-16 05:54PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Is MCBC Holdings Inc (MCFT) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-11-16 06:11PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Is MCBC Holdings Inc (MCFT) a Good Stock to Buy?   [06:11PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ MCBC Holdings, Inc. Announces Pricing of Follow-on Offering   [Sep-14-16 06:58PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of MCFT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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