Intrinsic value of Meredith - MDP

Previous Close

$66.55

  Intrinsic Value

$35.68

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-46%

Previous close

$66.55

 
Intrinsic value

$35.68

 
Up/down potential

-46%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MDP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.82
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,713
  1,747
  1,787
  1,833
  1,885
  1,942
  2,005
  2,073
  2,147
  2,227
  2,312
  2,403
  2,501
  2,605
  2,715
  2,832
  2,957
  3,088
  3,227
  3,374
  3,529
  3,692
  3,865
  4,047
  4,238
  4,440
  4,652
  4,876
  5,111
  5,359
  5,619
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,607
  1,642
  1,682
  1,727
  1,777
  1,831
  1,890
  1,954
  2,024
  2,098
  2,086
  2,171
  2,261
  2,357
  2,459
  2,566
  2,680
  2,801
  2,929
  3,063
  3,205
  3,355
  3,513
  3,679
  3,854
  4,038
  4,233
  4,437
  4,652
  4,878
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,404
  1,607
  1,642
  1,682
  1,727
  1,777
  1,831
  1,890
  1,954
  2,024
  2,098
  2,086
  2,171
  2,261
  2,357
  2,459
  2,566
  2,680
  2,801
  2,929
  3,063
  3,205
  3,355
  3,513
  3,679
  3,854
  4,038
  4,233
  4,437
  4,652
  4,878
Operating income, $m
  309
  140
  145
  151
  158
  166
  174
  183
  193
  203
  214
  317
  330
  344
  358
  374
  390
  407
  426
  445
  466
  487
  510
  534
  559
  586
  614
  643
  674
  707
  741
EBITDA, $m
  363
  269
  275
  283
  290
  299
  309
  319
  331
  343
  356
  370
  385
  401
  418
  437
  456
  476
  497
  520
  544
  569
  596
  624
  653
  684
  717
  751
  788
  826
  866
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  142
  151
Earnings before tax, $m
  290
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  173
  273
  282
  293
  304
  315
  327
  340
  354
  369
  384
  400
  417
  435
  454
  474
  495
  517
  540
  565
  590
Tax expense, $m
  101
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
Net income, $m
  189
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  199
  206
  214
  222
  230
  239
  248
  259
  269
  280
  292
  305
  318
  331
  346
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,730
  2,760
  2,824
  2,896
  2,978
  3,068
  3,167
  3,275
  3,392
  3,518
  3,653
  3,797
  3,951
  4,115
  4,290
  4,475
  4,671
  4,878
  5,098
  5,330
  5,575
  5,833
  6,105
  6,393
  6,695
  7,014
  7,350
  7,703
  8,075
  8,466
  8,877
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,708
  2,760
  2,824
  2,896
  2,978
  3,068
  3,167
  3,275
  3,392
  3,518
  3,653
  3,797
  3,951
  4,115
  4,290
  4,475
  4,671
  4,878
  5,098
  5,330
  5,575
  5,833
  6,105
  6,393
  6,695
  7,014
  7,350
  7,703
  8,075
  8,466
  8,877
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
  0.633
Average production assets, $m
  1,139
  1,162
  1,189
  1,219
  1,253
  1,291
  1,333
  1,379
  1,428
  1,481
  1,538
  1,598
  1,663
  1,732
  1,806
  1,884
  1,966
  2,053
  2,146
  2,243
  2,347
  2,455
  2,570
  2,691
  2,818
  2,953
  3,094
  3,242
  3,399
  3,564
  3,737
Working capital, $m
  45
  87
  89
  92
  94
  97
  100
  104
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  169
  176
  185
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
Total debt, $m
  698
  708
  749
  794
  846
  903
  966
  1,034
  1,108
  1,187
  1,272
  1,364
  1,461
  1,565
  1,675
  1,792
  1,916
  2,047
  2,186
  2,332
  2,487
  2,650
  2,823
  3,004
  3,195
  3,397
  3,609
  3,832
  4,067
  4,314
  4,574
Total liabilities, $m
  1,734
  1,744
  1,785
  1,830
  1,882
  1,939
  2,002
  2,070
  2,144
  2,223
  2,308
  2,400
  2,497
  2,601
  2,711
  2,828
  2,952
  3,083
  3,222
  3,368
  3,523
  3,686
  3,859
  4,040
  4,231
  4,433
  4,645
  4,868
  5,103
  5,350
  5,610
Total equity, $m
  996
  1,016
  1,039
  1,066
  1,096
  1,129
  1,166
  1,205
  1,248
  1,294
  1,344
  1,397
  1,454
  1,514
  1,579
  1,647
  1,719
  1,795
  1,876
  1,961
  2,051
  2,147
  2,247
  2,353
  2,464
  2,581
  2,705
  2,835
  2,971
  3,115
  3,267
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,730
  2,760
  2,824
  2,896
  2,978
  3,068
  3,168
  3,275
  3,392
  3,517
  3,652
  3,797
  3,951
  4,115
  4,290
  4,475
  4,671
  4,878
  5,098
  5,329
  5,574
  5,833
  6,106
  6,393
  6,695
  7,014
  7,350
  7,703
  8,074
  8,465
  8,877
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.701
  0.700
  0.720
  0.750
  0.770
  0.800
  0.830
  0.860
  0.890
  0.920
  0.950
  0.980
  1.000
  1.030
  1.060
  1.090
  1.110
  1.140
  1.170
  1.190
  1.210
  1.230
  1.260
  1.280
  1.300
  1.320
  1.330
  1.350
  1.370
  1.380
  1.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.360
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  189
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  199
  206
  214
  222
  230
  239
  248
  259
  269
  280
  292
  305
  318
  331
  346
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  54
  129
  130
  131
  132
  134
  135
  137
  138
  140
  142
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
Funds from operations, $m
  156
  214
  218
  223
  228
  233
  239
  245
  252
  260
  268
  252
  262
  271
  282
  293
  305
  317
  330
  344
  359
  374
  390
  407
  425
  444
  464
  486
  508
  531
  556
Change in working capital, $m
  -63
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Cash from operations, $m
  219
  213
  216
  220
  225
  230
  236
  242
  249
  256
  264
  248
  257
  266
  276
  287
  298
  310
  323
  337
  351
  366
  382
  398
  416
  434
  454
  474
  496
  519
  543
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
New CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -156
  -165
  -173
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -118
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -252
  -264
  -278
  -292
Free cash flow, $m
  101
  151
  151
  150
  150
  150
  151
  152
  154
  155
  158
  136
  138
  142
  145
  149
  153
  157
  162
  167
  173
  179
  185
  192
  199
  206
  214
  223
  231
  241
  251
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  6
  32
  40
  46
  51
  57
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  182
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
  260
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -12
  32
  40
  46
  51
  57
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  182
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
  260
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  89
  184
  191
  196
  202
  207
  214
  220
  227
  235
  243
  227
  236
  245
  255
  266
  277
  289
  301
  314
  328
  342
  357
  373
  390
  408
  426
  446
  466
  488
  511
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -107
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  164
  167
  169
  172
  174
  177
  181
  184
  189
  193
  174
  179
  185
  191
  198
  205
  212
  220
  229
  238
  247
  257
  268
  279
  290
  303
  316
  330
  344
  359
Discount rate, %
 
  5.80
  6.09
  6.39
  6.71
  7.05
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.48
  12.06
  12.66
  13.29
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.81
  18.71
  19.64
  20.62
  21.65
  22.74
  23.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  155
  149
  141
  132
  124
  115
  107
  98
  90
  82
  64
  58
  51
  45
  39
  33
  28
  23
  19
  15
  12
  10
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Meredith Corporation is a diversified media company. The Company is focused primarily on the home and family marketplace. The Company operates through two segments: Local Media and National Media. As of June 30, 2016, the Company's Local Media segment includes 16 owned television stations, one managed television station and related digital and mobile media operations. Its National Media segment includes magazine publishing, custom content and customer relationship marketing, digital and mobile media, brand licensing, database-related activities, and other related operations. Its National Media segment focuses on the food, home, parenthood, and health markets and is a publisher of magazines serving women. As of June 30, 2016, the Company's owned television stations consist of seven CBS affiliates, five FOX affiliates, two MyNetworkTV affiliates, one NBC affiliate, one ABC affiliate and one independent station. The National Media segment also focuses on run-of-press display advertising.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Meredith (MDP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.7
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 63.8%
Total Debt to Equity 70.1%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Total Capital 11.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Equity 20.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.4%
EBITDA Margin 21.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.2%
Operating Margin 18%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Net Profit Margin 11%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Effective Tax Rate 34.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.5%
Payout Ratio 48.7%

MDP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MDP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1713 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Meredith. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Meredith. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MDP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.8%, whose default value for MDP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Meredith, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Meredith.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MDP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MDP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Meredith.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Meredith. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MDP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MDP are equal to 66.5%.

Life of production assets of 37.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Meredith operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MDP is equal to 5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $996 million for Meredith - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45.269 million for Meredith is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Meredith at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ She helps Allrecipes readers find new favorites   [Dec-29-17 09:35AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Meredith Corp. : December 15, 2017   [Dec-15-17 01:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ MongoDB reports 3Q loss   [Dec-12-17 06:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ Meredith CEO Says No Decisions Yet on Time Inc. Assets   [Dec-05-17 06:28PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ Barron's On Why Bitcoin Has Stormed Wall Street   [Dec-02-17 01:29PM  Benzinga]
▶ Why Time Inc. and Meredith Soared Last Month   [Dec-01-17 04:53PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Company News For Nov 28, 2017   [08:37AM  Zacks]
▶ Asian shares mostly lower after sluggish Wall Street session   [Nov-27-17 10:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Meredith bought Time Inc   [07:23PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Business Highlights   [05:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ Wall Street High on Cyber Monday   [05:11PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [05:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Meredith buying Time Inc. for about $1.8 billion   [02:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Time, Inc. Shares Popped Today   [11:54AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Time Inc. sold in $2.8B deal financed by Koch Brothers   [10:45AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Major Birmingham employer to be sold   [09:42AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Time Wasn't on Its Side   [08:49AM  Bloomberg]
▶ [$$] Meredith Agrees to Buy Time Inc. for $1.85 Billion   [Nov-26-17 11:52PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Meredith Agrees to Buy Time Inc.   [06:44PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Media industry squeeze   [Nov-17-17 01:35PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Report: Time Inc. in merger talks with Meredith   [Nov-16-17 06:20PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of MDP
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