Intrinsic value of Meredith - MDP

Previous Close

$51.95

  Intrinsic Value

$48.56

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-7%

Previous close

$51.95

 
Intrinsic value

$48.56

 
Up/down potential

-7%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of MDP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.90
  4.01
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.47
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.83
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
Revenue, $m
  1,780
  1,851
  1,927
  2,008
  2,094
  2,185
  2,282
  2,384
  2,492
  2,606
  2,726
  2,853
  2,987
  3,128
  3,276
  3,432
  3,597
  3,770
  3,953
  4,144
  4,346
  4,558
  4,781
  5,015
  5,262
  5,521
  5,793
  6,079
  6,379
  6,695
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,632
  1,690
  1,751
  1,817
  1,887
  1,960
  2,039
  2,121
  2,209
  2,301
  2,209
  2,312
  2,421
  2,535
  2,655
  2,782
  2,915
  3,056
  3,204
  3,359
  3,522
  3,694
  3,875
  4,065
  4,265
  4,475
  4,695
  4,927
  5,170
  5,426
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,632
  1,690
  1,751
  1,817
  1,887
  1,960
  2,039
  2,121
  2,209
  2,301
  2,209
  2,312
  2,421
  2,535
  2,655
  2,782
  2,915
  3,056
  3,204
  3,359
  3,522
  3,694
  3,875
  4,065
  4,265
  4,475
  4,695
  4,927
  5,170
  5,426
Operating income, $m
  148
  162
  176
  191
  208
  225
  243
  262
  283
  304
  517
  541
  566
  593
  621
  650
  682
  714
  749
  785
  824
  864
  906
  950
  997
  1,046
  1,098
  1,152
  1,209
  1,269
EBITDA, $m
  549
  571
  595
  620
  646
  674
  704
  736
  769
  804
  841
  880
  922
  965
  1,011
  1,059
  1,110
  1,164
  1,220
  1,279
  1,341
  1,407
  1,475
  1,548
  1,624
  1,704
  1,788
  1,876
  1,969
  2,066
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  38
  41
  45
  49
  54
  58
  63
  69
  74
  80
  86
  93
  100
  107
  115
  123
  132
  140
  150
  160
  170
  181
  193
  205
  218
  231
  246
  260
  276
  292
Earnings before tax, $m
  110
  120
  131
  142
  154
  166
  180
  194
  209
  224
  430
  448
  466
  486
  506
  528
  550
  574
  599
  625
  653
  682
  713
  745
  779
  815
  852
  892
  933
  976
Tax expense, $m
  30
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  61
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  142
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  193
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
Net income, $m
  81
  88
  95
  104
  112
  121
  131
  141
  152
  164
  314
  327
  340
  354
  369
  385
  402
  419
  437
  457
  477
  498
  521
  544
  569
  595
  622
  651
  681
  713

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,834
  2,948
  3,069
  3,198
  3,334
  3,480
  3,633
  3,796
  3,968
  4,149
  4,341
  4,543
  4,756
  4,980
  5,217
  5,466
  5,728
  6,004
  6,294
  6,599
  6,920
  7,258
  7,613
  7,986
  8,379
  8,791
  9,224
  9,680
  10,158
  10,661
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,834
  2,948
  3,069
  3,198
  3,334
  3,480
  3,633
  3,796
  3,968
  4,149
  4,341
  4,543
  4,756
  4,980
  5,217
  5,466
  5,728
  6,004
  6,294
  6,599
  6,920
  7,258
  7,613
  7,986
  8,379
  8,791
  9,224
  9,680
  10,158
  10,661
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
  0.628
Average production assets, $m
  2,120
  2,205
  2,295
  2,392
  2,494
  2,603
  2,717
  2,839
  2,968
  3,103
  3,247
  3,398
  3,557
  3,725
  3,902
  4,088
  4,284
  4,490
  4,708
  4,936
  5,176
  5,429
  5,694
  5,973
  6,267
  6,575
  6,899
  7,240
  7,598
  7,974
Working capital, $m
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
Total debt, $m
  764
  836
  913
  995
  1,082
  1,174
  1,272
  1,375
  1,484
  1,599
  1,721
  1,849
  1,984
  2,127
  2,277
  2,435
  2,602
  2,777
  2,961
  3,155
  3,359
  3,573
  3,799
  4,036
  4,285
  4,547
  4,822
  5,111
  5,415
  5,734
Total liabilities, $m
  1,800
  1,872
  1,949
  2,031
  2,117
  2,210
  2,307
  2,410
  2,519
  2,635
  2,756
  2,885
  3,020
  3,162
  3,313
  3,471
  3,637
  3,812
  3,997
  4,191
  4,394
  4,609
  4,834
  5,071
  5,320
  5,582
  5,857
  6,147
  6,450
  6,769
Total equity, $m
  1,034
  1,076
  1,120
  1,167
  1,217
  1,270
  1,326
  1,385
  1,448
  1,514
  1,584
  1,658
  1,736
  1,818
  1,904
  1,995
  2,091
  2,191
  2,297
  2,409
  2,526
  2,649
  2,779
  2,915
  3,058
  3,209
  3,367
  3,533
  3,708
  3,891
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,834
  2,948
  3,069
  3,198
  3,334
  3,480
  3,633
  3,795
  3,967
  4,149
  4,340
  4,543
  4,756
  4,980
  5,217
  5,466
  5,728
  6,003
  6,294
  6,600
  6,920
  7,258
  7,613
  7,986
  8,378
  8,791
  9,224
  9,680
  10,158
  10,660
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.740
  0.780
  0.820
  0.850
  0.890
  0.920
  0.960
  0.990
  1.020
  1.060
  1.090
  1.120
  1.140
  1.170
  1.200
  1.220
  1.240
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.370
  1.380
  1.400
  1.420
  1.430
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365
  0.365

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  81
  88
  95
  104
  112
  121
  131
  141
  152
  164
  314
  327
  340
  354
  369
  385
  402
  419
  437
  457
  477
  498
  521
  544
  569
  595
  622
  651
  681
  713
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  401
  410
  419
  428
  439
  450
  461
  473
  486
  500
  325
  340
  356
  372
  390
  409
  428
  449
  471
  494
  518
  543
  569
  597
  627
  658
  690
  724
  760
  797
Funds from operations, $m
  482
  498
  514
  532
  551
  571
  592
  615
  638
  663
  639
  667
  696
  727
  760
  794
  830
  868
  908
  950
  994
  1,041
  1,090
  1,141
  1,196
  1,252
  1,312
  1,375
  1,441
  1,510
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  484
  499
  516
  534
  553
  573
  595
  617
  641
  666
  642
  670
  699
  731
  763
  798
  834
  873
  913
  955
  1,000
  1,047
  1,096
  1,148
  1,202
  1,259
  1,319
  1,382
  1,449
  1,518
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -230
  -239
  -249
  -260
  -272
  -284
  -297
  -310
  -325
  -340
  -356
  -372
  -390
  -409
  -428
  -449
  -471
  -494
  -518
  -543
  -569
  -597
  -627
  -658
  -690
  -724
  -760
New CAPEX, $m
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -324
  -341
  -358
  -376
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -284
  -297
  -311
  -326
  -341
  -358
  -375
  -394
  -413
  -433
  -453
  -476
  -499
  -524
  -549
  -576
  -605
  -634
  -666
  -699
  -734
  -771
  -809
  -848
  -890
  -935
  -982
  -1,031
  -1,082
  -1,136
Free cash flow, $m
  200
  202
  205
  208
  212
  215
  220
  224
  229
  234
  188
  194
  200
  207
  214
  222
  229
  238
  247
  256
  266
  276
  287
  299
  311
  324
  338
  352
  367
  383
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  66
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  122
  128
  135
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  214
  225
  237
  249
  262
  275
  289
  304
  319
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  66
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  122
  128
  135
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  214
  225
  237
  249
  262
  275
  289
  304
  319
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  266
  275
  282
  290
  299
  308
  317
  327
  338
  349
  310
  322
  336
  350
  364
  380
  396
  413
  431
  450
  470
  491
  513
  536
  560
  586
  613
  641
  671
  702
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -183
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
Cash available for distribution, $m
  227
  233
  238
  243
  249
  255
  261
  268
  275
  283
  240
  249
  258
  268
  278
  289
  300
  312
  325
  338
  353
  368
  383
  400
  417
  435
  455
  475
  496
  518
Discount rate, %
  6.20
  6.51
  6.84
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.04
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.30
  25.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  214
  205
  195
  184
  173
  161
  149
  137
  125
  113
  83
  74
  65
  57
  49
  42
  35
  29
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Meredith Corporation is a diversified media company. The Company is focused primarily on the home and family marketplace. The Company operates through two segments: Local Media and National Media. As of June 30, 2016, the Company's Local Media segment includes 16 owned television stations, one managed television station and related digital and mobile media operations. Its National Media segment includes magazine publishing, custom content and customer relationship marketing, digital and mobile media, brand licensing, database-related activities, and other related operations. Its National Media segment focuses on the food, home, parenthood, and health markets and is a publisher of magazines serving women. As of June 30, 2016, the Company's owned television stations consist of seven CBS affiliates, five FOX affiliates, two MyNetworkTV affiliates, one NBC affiliate, one ABC affiliate and one independent station. The National Media segment also focuses on run-of-press display advertising.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Meredith (MDP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.2
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 63.8%
Total Debt to Equity 70.1%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Total Capital 11.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Equity 20.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.4%
EBITDA Margin 21.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.2%
Operating Margin 18%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Net Profit Margin 11%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Effective Tax Rate 34.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.5%
Payout Ratio 48.7%

MDP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MDP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1713 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Meredith. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Meredith. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MDP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.2%, whose default value for MDP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Meredith, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Meredith.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MDP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MDP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Meredith.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Meredith. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MDP stock is equal to 0.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MDP are equal to 119.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Meredith operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MDP is equal to -2.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $996 million for Meredith - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45 million for Meredith is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Meredith at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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