Intrinsic value of MDU Resources Group - MDU

Previous Close

$26.44

  Intrinsic Value

$10.69

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-60%

Previous close

$26.44

 
Intrinsic value

$10.69

 
Up/down potential

-60%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MDU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,532
  4,636
  4,756
  4,889
  5,038
  5,200
  5,377
  5,569
  5,776
  5,997
  6,234
  6,487
  6,757
  7,043
  7,347
  7,669
  8,010
  8,370
  8,751
  9,153
  9,577
  10,025
  10,496
  10,993
  11,517
  12,068
  12,648
  13,258
  13,900
  14,575
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,082
  4,175
  4,280
  4,399
  4,530
  4,675
  4,832
  5,002
  5,185
  5,381
  5,528
  5,752
  5,991
  6,245
  6,515
  6,800
  7,102
  7,422
  7,759
  8,116
  8,492
  8,889
  9,307
  9,748
  10,212
  10,700
  11,215
  11,756
  12,325
  12,924
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,082
  4,175
  4,280
  4,399
  4,530
  4,675
  4,832
  5,002
  5,185
  5,381
  5,528
  5,752
  5,991
  6,245
  6,515
  6,800
  7,102
  7,422
  7,759
  8,116
  8,492
  8,889
  9,307
  9,748
  10,212
  10,700
  11,215
  11,756
  12,325
  12,924
Operating income, $m
  450
  462
  475
  490
  507
  526
  546
  567
  591
  616
  706
  735
  766
  798
  832
  869
  908
  948
  992
  1,037
  1,085
  1,136
  1,189
  1,246
  1,305
  1,367
  1,433
  1,502
  1,575
  1,651
EBITDA, $m
  710
  727
  745
  766
  790
  815
  843
  873
  905
  940
  977
  1,017
  1,059
  1,104
  1,152
  1,202
  1,255
  1,312
  1,372
  1,435
  1,501
  1,571
  1,645
  1,723
  1,805
  1,892
  1,982
  2,078
  2,179
  2,285
Interest expense (income), $m
  88
  93
  97
  102
  108
  114
  121
  129
  137
  146
  156
  167
  178
  190
  203
  216
  231
  246
  262
  280
  298
  317
  337
  358
  381
  404
  429
  455
  483
  512
  542
Earnings before tax, $m
  357
  365
  373
  383
  393
  405
  417
  430
  444
  460
  540
  557
  576
  595
  616
  638
  661
  686
  712
  739
  768
  799
  831
  865
  901
  938
  978
  1,019
  1,063
  1,109
Tax expense, $m
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  113
  116
  120
  124
  146
  150
  155
  161
  166
  172
  179
  185
  192
  200
  207
  216
  224
  234
  243
  253
  264
  275
  287
  299
Net income, $m
  261
  266
  272
  279
  287
  295
  304
  314
  324
  336
  394
  407
  420
  434
  450
  466
  483
  501
  520
  540
  561
  583
  607
  631
  658
  685
  714
  744
  776
  810

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,465
  6,614
  6,784
  6,975
  7,186
  7,418
  7,671
  7,944
  8,239
  8,555
  8,894
  9,255
  9,639
  10,047
  10,481
  10,940
  11,426
  11,940
  12,484
  13,057
  13,662
  14,301
  14,973
  15,682
  16,429
  17,215
  18,042
  18,913
  19,829
  20,792
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,465
  6,614
  6,784
  6,975
  7,186
  7,418
  7,671
  7,944
  8,239
  8,555
  8,894
  9,255
  9,639
  10,047
  10,481
  10,940
  11,426
  11,940
  12,484
  13,057
  13,662
  14,301
  14,973
  15,682
  16,429
  17,215
  18,042
  18,913
  19,829
  20,792
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
Average production assets, $m
  4,410
  4,511
  4,627
  4,757
  4,902
  5,060
  5,232
  5,419
  5,620
  5,835
  6,066
  6,312
  6,574
  6,853
  7,149
  7,462
  7,793
  8,144
  8,515
  8,906
  9,319
  9,754
  10,213
  10,696
  11,206
  11,742
  12,306
  12,900
  13,525
  14,182
Working capital, $m
  381
  389
  399
  411
  423
  437
  452
  468
  485
  504
  524
  545
  568
  592
  617
  644
  673
  703
  735
  769
  804
  842
  882
  923
  967
  1,014
  1,062
  1,114
  1,168
  1,224
Total debt, $m
  1,798
  1,890
  1,995
  2,113
  2,243
  2,386
  2,542
  2,711
  2,893
  3,088
  3,297
  3,519
  3,756
  4,008
  4,276
  4,559
  4,859
  5,176
  5,512
  5,865
  6,239
  6,633
  7,048
  7,485
  7,946
  8,431
  8,941
  9,479
  10,044
  10,638
Total liabilities, $m
  3,989
  4,081
  4,186
  4,304
  4,434
  4,577
  4,733
  4,902
  5,084
  5,279
  5,487
  5,710
  5,947
  6,199
  6,467
  6,750
  7,050
  7,367
  7,702
  8,056
  8,430
  8,824
  9,239
  9,676
  10,137
  10,622
  11,132
  11,669
  12,234
  12,829
Total equity, $m
  2,476
  2,533
  2,598
  2,671
  2,752
  2,841
  2,938
  3,043
  3,156
  3,277
  3,406
  3,544
  3,692
  3,848
  4,014
  4,190
  4,376
  4,573
  4,781
  5,001
  5,233
  5,477
  5,735
  6,006
  6,292
  6,593
  6,910
  7,244
  7,594
  7,963
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,465
  6,614
  6,784
  6,975
  7,186
  7,418
  7,671
  7,945
  8,240
  8,556
  8,893
  9,254
  9,639
  10,047
  10,481
  10,940
  11,426
  11,940
  12,483
  13,057
  13,663
  14,301
  14,974
  15,682
  16,429
  17,215
  18,042
  18,913
  19,828
  20,792
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.730
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.820
  0.840
  0.870
  0.890
  0.920
  0.940
  0.970
  0.990
  1.020
  1.040
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.210
  1.230
  1.250
  1.260
  1.280
  1.290
  1.310
  1.320
  1.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  261
  266
  272
  279
  287
  295
  304
  314
  324
  336
  394
  407
  420
  434
  450
  466
  483
  501
  520
  540
  561
  583
  607
  631
  658
  685
  714
  744
  776
  810
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  260
  265
  270
  276
  282
  289
  297
  305
  314
  324
  271
  282
  293
  306
  319
  333
  348
  364
  380
  398
  416
  435
  456
  478
  500
  524
  549
  576
  604
  633
Funds from operations, $m
  521
  531
  543
  555
  569
  585
  601
  619
  639
  660
  665
  688
  714
  740
  769
  799
  831
  864
  900
  937
  977
  1,019
  1,063
  1,109
  1,158
  1,209
  1,263
  1,320
  1,380
  1,443
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
Cash from operations, $m
  514
  522
  533
  544
  557
  571
  587
  603
  622
  641
  645
  667
  691
  716
  743
  772
  802
  834
  868
  904
  941
  981
  1,023
  1,067
  1,114
  1,163
  1,214
  1,269
  1,326
  1,386
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -193
  -197
  -201
  -207
  -212
  -219
  -226
  -234
  -242
  -251
  -261
  -271
  -282
  -293
  -306
  -319
  -333
  -348
  -364
  -380
  -398
  -416
  -435
  -456
  -478
  -500
  -524
  -549
  -576
  -604
New CAPEX, $m
  -86
  -101
  -116
  -130
  -144
  -158
  -172
  -187
  -201
  -216
  -231
  -246
  -262
  -279
  -296
  -313
  -332
  -351
  -371
  -391
  -413
  -435
  -459
  -483
  -509
  -536
  -564
  -594
  -625
  -657
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -279
  -298
  -317
  -337
  -356
  -377
  -398
  -421
  -443
  -467
  -492
  -517
  -544
  -572
  -602
  -632
  -665
  -699
  -735
  -771
  -811
  -851
  -894
  -939
  -987
  -1,036
  -1,088
  -1,143
  -1,201
  -1,261
Free cash flow, $m
  235
  224
  215
  207
  200
  194
  188
  183
  179
  175
  154
  150
  147
  144
  142
  139
  137
  135
  134
  132
  131
  130
  129
  128
  127
  126
  126
  126
  125
  125
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  84
  92
  105
  118
  130
  143
  156
  169
  182
  195
  209
  223
  237
  252
  267
  283
  300
  317
  335
  354
  373
  394
  415
  437
  461
  485
  510
  537
  565
  594
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  84
  92
  105
  118
  130
  143
  156
  169
  182
  195
  209
  223
  237
  252
  267
  283
  300
  317
  335
  354
  373
  394
  415
  437
  461
  485
  510
  537
  565
  594
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  318
  316
  320
  325
  331
  337
  344
  352
  360
  370
  362
  373
  384
  396
  409
  423
  437
  453
  469
  486
  504
  524
  544
  565
  588
  611
  636
  663
  690
  720
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -47
  -57
  -65
  -73
  -81
  -89
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -121
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -208
  -220
  -232
  -244
  -258
  -271
  -286
  -301
  -317
  -333
  -351
  -369
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  271
  259
  255
  252
  250
  248
  247
  247
  248
  249
  233
  235
  237
  240
  243
  247
  251
  256
  261
  266
  273
  279
  286
  294
  302
  310
  320
  329
  340
  351
Discount rate, %
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.52
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  254
  227
  207
  189
  171
  154
  138
  123
  108
  95
  77
  66
  56
  48
  40
  32
  26
  21
  16
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

MDU Resources Group, Inc. is engaged in regulated energy delivery and construction materials and services business. The Company's businesses segments are electric, natural gas distribution, pipeline and midstream, construction materials and contracting, and construction services. The electric segment generates, transmits and distributes electricity. The natural gas distribution segment distributes natural gas. The pipeline and midstream segment provides natural gas transportation, underground storage, processing and gathering services, as well as oil gathering. The construction materials and contracting segment mines aggregates and markets crushed stone, sand, gravel and related construction materials, including ready-mixed concrete, asphalt, liquid asphalt and other value-added products. The construction services segment provides utility construction services in constructing and maintaining electric and communication lines, and external lighting and traffic signalization.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MDU Resources Group (MDU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 80.7
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 69.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -27.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 75.4%
Total Debt to Equity 77.3%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Return On Total Capital 1.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Return On Equity 2.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.3%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 15.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Operating Margin 9.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Net Profit Margin 1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.2%
Effective Tax Rate 28.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.7%
Payout Ratio 229.7%

MDU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MDU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4443.351 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MDU Resources Group. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of MDU Resources Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MDU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.5%, whose default value for MDU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MDU Resources Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MDU Resources Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MDU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MDU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for MDU Resources Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MDU Resources Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MDU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MDU are equal to 97.3%.

Life of production assets of 22.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MDU Resources Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MDU is equal to 8.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2429.043 million for MDU Resources Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 196.018 million for MDU Resources Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MDU Resources Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ MDU Resources: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Oct-31-18 06:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ MDU Resources Group Acquires Sweetman Const. Co.   [Oct-04-18 08:45AM  PR Newswire]
▶ MDU Resources Group Inc (NYSE:MDU): Ex-Dividend Is In 4 Days   [Sep-07-18 07:29AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ MDU Resources: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-31-18 06:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ MDU Resources Group Acquires Tri-City Paving, Inc.   [Jun-04-18 08:25AM  PR Newswire]
▶ MDU Resources Announces Director Holaday's Retirement   [May-08-18 05:03PM  PR Newswire]
▶ MDU Resources: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 05:13AM  Associated Press]
▶ March Top Dividend Payers   [Mar-09-18 08:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ MDU Resources Announces Webcast of Analyst Seminar   [Mar-07-18 11:55AM  PR Newswire]
▶ MDU Resources posts 4Q profit   [Feb-06-18 07:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ MDU Resources misses 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-02-17 05:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ MDU Resources Reports Higher Third Quarter Earnings   [Nov-01-17 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ MDU Resources Names Hastings CEO of Pipeline Business   [Oct-10-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Ferrellgas hires former Fortune 500 CFO   [Sep-22-17 01:25PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Four Utility Buys In A High-Priced Sector   [Sep-18-17 03:53PM  Forbes]

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