Intrinsic value of MediWound Ltd. - MDWD

Previous Close

$3.71

  Intrinsic Value

$0.08

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$3.71

 
Intrinsic value

$0.08

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MDWD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  3
  5
  7
  11
  15
  21
  28
  37
  47
  60
  74
  90
  109
  130
  153
  178
  204
  233
  264
  297
  332
  369
  407
  447
  489
  533
  578
  626
  675
  726
Variable operating expenses, $m
  45
  69
  103
  150
  211
  290
  390
  512
  658
  832
  1,033
  1,262
  1,522
  1,810
  2,129
  2,476
  2,852
  3,257
  3,688
  4,147
  4,631
  5,142
  5,677
  6,238
  6,823
  7,434
  8,070
  8,731
  9,419
  10,134
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  45
  69
  103
  150
  211
  290
  390
  512
  658
  832
  1,033
  1,262
  1,522
  1,810
  2,129
  2,476
  2,852
  3,257
  3,688
  4,147
  4,631
  5,142
  5,677
  6,238
  6,823
  7,434
  8,070
  8,731
  9,419
  10,134
Operating income, $m
  -42
  -64
  -96
  -139
  -196
  -270
  -362
  -475
  -611
  -772
  -959
  -1,172
  -1,413
  -1,681
  -1,976
  -2,299
  -2,648
  -3,023
  -3,424
  -3,849
  -4,299
  -4,773
  -5,270
  -5,791
  -6,334
  -6,901
  -7,491
  -8,105
  -8,744
  -9,408
EBITDA, $m
  -41
  -63
  -94
  -137
  -193
  -265
  -356
  -468
  -602
  -760
  -944
  -1,154
  -1,391
  -1,655
  -1,946
  -2,264
  -2,608
  -2,978
  -3,372
  -3,791
  -4,235
  -4,701
  -5,191
  -5,703
  -6,239
  -6,797
  -7,378
  -7,983
  -8,612
  -9,266
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  10
  14
  18
  22
  28
  34
  41
  48
  56
  65
  75
  85
  96
  107
  119
  132
  145
  159
  173
  188
  204
  220
Earnings before tax, $m
  -42
  -63
  -96
  -140
  -198
  -273
  -367
  -482
  -621
  -786
  -976
  -1,194
  -1,440
  -1,715
  -2,017
  -2,347
  -2,704
  -3,088
  -3,499
  -3,934
  -4,395
  -4,880
  -5,389
  -5,922
  -6,479
  -7,060
  -7,664
  -8,294
  -8,948
  -9,628
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -42
  -63
  -96
  -140
  -198
  -273
  -367
  -482
  -621
  -786
  -976
  -1,194
  -1,440
  -1,715
  -2,017
  -2,347
  -2,704
  -3,088
  -3,499
  -3,934
  -4,395
  -4,880
  -5,389
  -5,922
  -6,479
  -7,060
  -7,664
  -8,294
  -8,948
  -9,628

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  22
  33
  50
  72
  102
  141
  189
  248
  319
  403
  500
  611
  737
  877
  1,031
  1,199
  1,382
  1,577
  1,786
  2,008
  2,243
  2,490
  2,750
  3,021
  3,305
  3,601
  3,909
  4,229
  4,562
  4,909
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  22
  33
  50
  72
  102
  141
  189
  248
  319
  403
  500
  611
  737
  877
  1,031
  1,199
  1,382
  1,577
  1,786
  2,008
  2,243
  2,490
  2,750
  3,021
  3,305
  3,601
  3,909
  4,229
  4,562
  4,909
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.136
  0.152
  0.140
  0.153
  0.147
  0.149
  0.148
  0.149
  0.147
  0.149
  0.148
  0.147
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
  0.148
Average production assets, $m
  3
  5
  7
  10
  15
  20
  27
  36
  46
  58
  72
  88
  106
  127
  149
  173
  200
  228
  258
  290
  324
  360
  397
  436
  477
  520
  565
  611
  659
  709
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
Total debt, $m
  -15
  -4
  10
  31
  58
  92
  135
  189
  252
  328
  416
  516
  629
  755
  893
  1,045
  1,209
  1,385
  1,573
  1,773
  1,984
  2,207
  2,440
  2,685
  2,940
  3,206
  3,483
  3,772
  4,072
  4,383
Total liabilities, $m
  19
  30
  45
  65
  92
  127
  170
  223
  287
  362
  450
  550
  663
  789
  928
  1,079
  1,243
  1,420
  1,608
  1,808
  2,019
  2,241
  2,475
  2,719
  2,974
  3,241
  3,518
  3,806
  4,106
  4,418
Total equity, $m
  2
  3
  5
  7
  10
  14
  19
  25
  32
  40
  50
  61
  74
  88
  103
  120
  138
  158
  179
  201
  224
  249
  275
  302
  330
  360
  391
  423
  456
  491
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  21
  33
  50
  72
  102
  141
  189
  248
  319
  402
  500
  611
  737
  877
  1,031
  1,199
  1,381
  1,578
  1,787
  2,009
  2,243
  2,490
  2,750
  3,021
  3,304
  3,601
  3,909
  4,229
  4,562
  4,909
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -6.960
  -1.330
  2.090
  4.240
  5.630
  6.550
  7.170
  7.610
  7.920
  8.140
  8.310
  8.440
  8.530
  8.610
  8.670
  8.710
  8.750
  8.780
  8.810
  8.830
  8.850
  8.860
  8.870
  8.890
  8.900
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.920
  8.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -42
  -63
  -96
  -140
  -198
  -273
  -367
  -482
  -621
  -786
  -976
  -1,194
  -1,440
  -1,715
  -2,017
  -2,347
  -2,704
  -3,088
  -3,499
  -3,934
  -4,395
  -4,880
  -5,389
  -5,922
  -6,479
  -7,060
  -7,664
  -8,294
  -8,948
  -9,628
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  12
  14
  18
  21
  25
  30
  35
  40
  46
  52
  58
  65
  72
  79
  87
  95
  104
  113
  122
  132
  142
Funds from operations, $m
  -41
  -62
  -94
  -137
  -195
  -269
  -361
  -475
  -612
  -774
  -962
  -1,177
  -1,419
  -1,689
  -1,987
  -2,312
  -2,664
  -3,043
  -3,447
  -3,876
  -4,330
  -4,808
  -5,310
  -5,835
  -6,384
  -6,956
  -7,552
  -8,171
  -8,816
  -9,486
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -41
  -62
  -94
  -137
  -195
  -269
  -361
  -475
  -612
  -774
  -962
  -1,177
  -1,419
  -1,689
  -1,987
  -2,313
  -2,665
  -3,043
  -3,447
  -3,877
  -4,331
  -4,809
  -5,310
  -5,835
  -6,384
  -6,956
  -7,552
  -8,172
  -8,816
  -9,486
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -14
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -87
  -95
  -104
  -113
  -122
  -132
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -30
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -68
  -76
  -84
  -92
  -101
  -109
  -118
  -128
  -138
  -148
  -159
  -170
  -182
Free cash flow, $m
  -42
  -65
  -97
  -142
  -201
  -277
  -372
  -489
  -630
  -795
  -988
  -1,207
  -1,455
  -1,731
  -2,035
  -2,367
  -2,726
  -3,111
  -3,523
  -3,960
  -4,423
  -4,909
  -5,420
  -5,954
  -6,512
  -7,094
  -7,700
  -8,331
  -8,987
  -9,668
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  11
  15
  20
  27
  34
  43
  53
  64
  75
  88
  100
  113
  126
  139
  151
  164
  176
  188
  200
  211
  222
  233
  244
  255
  266
  277
  288
  300
  312
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  65
  64
  97
  142
  201
  277
  372
  488
  629
  794
  986
  1,205
  1,453
  1,729
  2,032
  2,364
  2,723
  3,108
  3,520
  3,957
  4,419
  4,905
  5,415
  5,950
  6,508
  7,089
  7,695
  8,326
  8,981
  9,662
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  50
  75
  112
  162
  228
  311
  415
  541
  693
  869
  1,074
  1,305
  1,566
  1,855
  2,171
  2,515
  2,887
  3,284
  3,708
  4,157
  4,630
  5,127
  5,648
  6,194
  6,763
  7,355
  7,972
  8,614
  9,281
  9,974
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  11
  15
  20
  26
  34
  43
  52
  63
  74
  86
  98
  111
  124
  136
  149
  161
  173
  185
  196
  207
  218
  229
  240
  250
  261
  272
  283
  294
  306
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -65
  -64
  -97
  -142
  -201
  -277
  -372
  -488
  -629
  -794
  -986
  -1,205
  -1,453
  -1,729
  -2,032
  -2,364
  -2,723
  -3,108
  -3,520
  -3,957
  -4,419
  -4,905
  -5,415
  -5,950
  -6,508
  -7,089
  -7,695
  -8,326
  -8,981
  -9,662
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -27
  -54
  -83
  -122
  -174
  -243
  -329
  -436
  -566
  -720
  -900
  -1,107
  -1,342
  -1,605
  -1,896
  -2,215
  -2,562
  -2,935
  -3,335
  -3,761
  -4,211
  -4,687
  -5,186
  -5,710
  -6,257
  -6,828
  -7,423
  -8,043
  -8,687
  -9,356
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -26
  -49
  -72
  -100
  -135
  -176
  -222
  -272
  -325
  -377
  -427
  -472
  -510
  -539
  -557
  -563
  -557
  -541
  -513
  -478
  -436
  -389
  -340
  -291
  -243
  -199
  -159
  -124
  -95
  -70
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  12.6
  3.2
  0.8
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

MediWound Ltd. is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on developing, manufacturing and commercializing therapeutics products in the fields of severe burns, chronic and other hard-to-heal wounds, connective tissue disorders and other indications. The Company's product, NexoBrid, is indicated for the removal of dead or damaged tissue, known as eschar, in adults with deep partial- and full-thickness thermal burns, also referred to as severe burns. The Company sells NexoBrid in Europe and Israel. NexoBrid is a topically-applied product that removes eschar in four hours without harming the surrounding healthy tissues. Its product, EscharEx, is a topical biological drug, which is being developed for debridement of chronic and other hard-to-heal wounds. NexoBrid and EscharEx are based on its proteolytic enzyme technology. The Company is also developing an injectable product based on its proteolytic enzyme technology for connective tissue pathologies and indications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MediWound Ltd. (MDWD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.3
Price to Sales 40.7
Price to Book 10.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -42.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -40.8%
Return On Total Capital -122.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -118.2%
Return On Equity -122.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -118.2%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -50%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -83.3%
EBITDA Margin -900%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1000%
Operating Margin -1000%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1033.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -950%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1050%
Net Profit Margin -950%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1050%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

MDWD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MDWD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MediWound Ltd.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of MediWound Ltd.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MDWD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MDWD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MediWound Ltd., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MediWound Ltd..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MDWD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 1400%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MDWD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for MediWound Ltd..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MediWound Ltd.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MDWD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MDWD are equal to 97.6%.

Life of production assets of 4.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MediWound Ltd. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MDWD is equal to 0.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $9.62 million for MediWound Ltd. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.178 million for MediWound Ltd. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MediWound Ltd. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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