Intrinsic value of Medifast - MED

Previous Close

$171.25

  Intrinsic Value

$111.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-35%

Previous close

$171.25

 
Intrinsic value

$111.46

 
Up/down potential

-35%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MED stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
Revenue, $m
  332
  363
  396
  430
  465
  502
  540
  579
  621
  663
  708
  754
  802
  852
  905
  959
  1,016
  1,075
  1,136
  1,201
  1,268
  1,338
  1,411
  1,488
  1,568
  1,652
  1,740
  1,832
  1,928
  2,029
Variable operating expenses, $m
  175
  191
  209
  226
  245
  264
  284
  305
  327
  350
  373
  397
  423
  449
  477
  505
  535
  566
  599
  633
  668
  705
  744
  784
  827
  871
  917
  966
  1,016
  1,069
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  107
  110
  112
  115
  117
  120
  122
  125
  128
  131
  133
  136
  139
  142
  146
  149
  152
  155
  159
  162
  166
  169
  173
  177
  181
  185
  189
  193
  197
  202
Total operating expenses, $m
  282
  301
  321
  341
  362
  384
  406
  430
  455
  481
  506
  533
  562
  591
  623
  654
  687
  721
  758
  795
  834
  874
  917
  961
  1,008
  1,056
  1,106
  1,159
  1,213
  1,271
Operating income, $m
  50
  62
  75
  89
  103
  118
  133
  149
  166
  183
  201
  220
  240
  261
  282
  305
  328
  353
  379
  406
  434
  463
  494
  527
  561
  597
  634
  673
  715
  758
EBITDA, $m
  52
  64
  78
  91
  106
  121
  136
  153
  170
  188
  206
  225
  245
  266
  288
  311
  335
  360
  386
  413
  442
  472
  503
  536
  571
  607
  645
  685
  727
  771
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  50
  62
  75
  88
  102
  117
  132
  147
  164
  181
  199
  218
  237
  257
  279
  301
  324
  348
  374
  400
  428
  457
  487
  519
  553
  588
  625
  664
  705
  747
Tax expense, $m
  13
  17
  20
  24
  28
  31
  36
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  123
  132
  140
  149
  159
  169
  179
  190
  202
Net income, $m
  36
  45
  54
  64
  74
  85
  96
  108
  120
  132
  145
  159
  173
  188
  203
  220
  236
  254
  273
  292
  312
  334
  356
  379
  404
  429
  456
  485
  514
  545

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  93
  101
  111
  120
  130
  140
  151
  162
  173
  185
  198
  211
  224
  238
  253
  268
  284
  300
  317
  335
  354
  374
  394
  416
  438
  462
  486
  512
  539
  567
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  93
  101
  111
  120
  130
  140
  151
  162
  173
  185
  198
  211
  224
  238
  253
  268
  284
  300
  317
  335
  354
  374
  394
  416
  438
  462
  486
  512
  539
  567
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.570
  3.594
  3.568
  3.583
  3.577
  3.586
  3.576
  3.574
  3.590
  3.584
  3.576
  3.573
  3.580
  3.580
  3.577
  3.578
  3.577
  3.583
  3.584
  3.585
  3.582
  3.578
  3.581
  3.577
  3.580
  3.576
  3.580
  3.578
  3.577
  3.578
Average production assets, $m
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
  123
  130
Working capital, $m
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
Total debt, $m
  4
  8
  12
  16
  21
  25
  30
  35
  40
  45
  51
  56
  62
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  112
  120
  129
  138
  147
  157
  168
  178
  190
  202
  214
Total liabilities, $m
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  215
  227
  239
  251
Total equity, $m
  52
  56
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  197
  208
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
  316
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  93
  101
  111
  120
  130
  140
  151
  162
  174
  185
  198
  210
  224
  238
  253
  268
  284
  300
  318
  336
  354
  374
  395
  416
  438
  461
  486
  512
  539
  567
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.080
  0.140
  0.200
  0.240
  0.280
  0.320
  0.360
  0.390
  0.410
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  36
  45
  54
  64
  74
  85
  96
  108
  120
  132
  145
  159
  173
  188
  203
  220
  236
  254
  273
  292
  312
  334
  356
  379
  404
  429
  456
  485
  514
  545
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Funds from operations, $m
  38
  47
  57
  67
  77
  88
  100
  111
  124
  136
  150
  164
  178
  193
  209
  226
  243
  261
  280
  300
  320
  342
  365
  389
  414
  440
  467
  496
  527
  558
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  40
  49
  59
  69
  79
  90
  102
  114
  126
  139
  152
  166
  181
  196
  212
  229
  246
  265
  284
  304
  324
  346
  369
  393
  418
  445
  473
  502
  532
  564
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
Free cash flow, $m
  36
  45
  55
  64
  74
  85
  96
  108
  120
  132
  145
  159
  173
  188
  203
  220
  237
  254
  273
  292
  312
  334
  356
  379
  404
  429
  456
  485
  514
  546
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  40
  49
  59
  68
  79
  90
  101
  113
  125
  138
  151
  165
  179
  194
  210
  226
  244
  262
  280
  300
  321
  342
  365
  389
  414
  440
  467
  496
  526
  558
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Cash available for distribution, $m
  98
  44
  54
  63
  73
  84
  95
  106
  118
  131
  144
  157
  172
  186
  202
  218
  235
  252
  271
  290
  310
  331
  354
  377
  401
  427
  454
  482
  511
  542
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  94
  40
  47
  52
  57
  61
  64
  67
  68
  69
  68
  67
  65
  63
  59
  55
  51
  46
  42
  37
  32
  28
  23
  19
  16
  12
  10
  7
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Medifast, Inc. produces, distributes and sells weight loss, weight management, and healthy living products, and other consumable health and nutritional products. The Company’s product lines include weight loss, weight management, and healthy living meal replacements, snacks, hydration products, and vitamins. Its business units include Optavia, Medifast Direct, Franchise Medifast Weight Control Centers (MWCC) and Medifast Wholesale. Optavia is a personal coaching division of the Company that consists of Optavia Coaches, who provides coaching and support to clients utilizing the Optavia platform. Medifast Direct is its direct-to-consumer business unit that allows customers to order Medifast products directly through its Website or its in-house call center. The MWCC business unit sells product through franchise and reseller locations, which offers structured programs and a team of professionals to help customers achieve weight-loss and weight-management success at center locations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Medifast (MED)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 112.9
Price to Sales 7.4
Price to Book 21.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 81.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 92.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Return On Total Capital 19.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Return On Equity 19.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 74.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 74%
EBITDA Margin 11.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Operating Margin 9.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Net Profit Margin 6.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
Payout Ratio 66.7%

MED stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MED stock intrinsic value calculation we used $302 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Medifast. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Medifast. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MED stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MED is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Medifast, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Medifast.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MED stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 52.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $105 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MED stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Medifast.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Medifast. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MED stock is equal to 1.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MED are equal to 6.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Medifast operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MED is equal to -5.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $109 million for Medifast - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12 million for Medifast is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Medifast at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Holding on: Local companies are navigating an unpredictable stock market   [Jul-13-18 05:00AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Medifast Is Overlooked and Underappreciated   [Jul-11-18 12:19PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Medifast stock, up 130 percent this year, among biggest gainers in U.S.   [Jun-29-18 02:40PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Is Medifast Incs (NYSE:MED) Liquidity Good Enough?   [Jun-22-18 12:27PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Reasons Why I Like Medifast Inc (NYSE:MED)   [Jun-20-18 11:09AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 6 Defensive Stocks to Buy as Trade Tensions Flare Up   [Jun-18-18 01:55PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Medifast, Inc. Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-14-18 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Leverage the Price Momentum of These 4 Stocks   [Jun-11-18 03:29PM  Zacks]
▶ 3 Food Stocks to Please Investors' Palate   [Jun-06-18 09:31AM  Zacks]
▶ BRF S.A. (BRFS) Surges: Stock Moves 8.3% Higher   [Jun-04-18 08:49AM  Zacks]
▶ When Should You Buy Medifast Inc (NYSE:MED)?   [Jun-01-18 01:38PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Here's how much more CEOs at Baltimore public companies make than their employees   [May-05-18 08:43AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Medifast: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 06:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ Medifast shares surge after reporting profits doubled in 1Q   [04:51PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Medifast CEO Daniel Chard gets a big bonus for boosting sales   [May-02-18 01:56PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Gatheredtable software licensed by Medifast   [Apr-23-18 10:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Can The Uptrend Continue for Medifast (MED)?   [Mar-23-18 11:03AM  Zacks]
▶ Medifast, Inc. Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-15-18 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Stocks Move Wednesday   [10:01AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Medifast profit up 78% in 4Q; activist investor steps down from board   [Mar-06-18 05:32PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Medifast to begin selling in Hong Kong and Singapore next year   [02:36PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Medifast, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:15PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Medifast posts 3Q profit   [Nov-07-17 06:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ Medifast profit beats estimates as sales rise almost 13 percent   [05:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Medifast, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [10:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Medifast, Inc. : October 30, 2017   [Oct-30-17 12:03PM  Capital Cube]
▶ This Top Growth Stock Near Buy Point With Q3 Earnings Due   [Oct-24-17 04:06PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Medifast, Inc. : October 9, 2017   [Oct-09-17 11:46AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Medifast, Inc. : September 19, 2017   [Sep-19-17 05:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Medifast confirms headquarters move to Harbor East   [09:35AM  American City Business Journals]
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