Intrinsic value of Miragen Therapeutics - MGEN

Previous Close

$3.35

  Intrinsic Value

$0.32

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$3.35

 
Intrinsic value

$0.32

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MGEN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  6
  10
  15
  21
  30
  42
  56
  73
  94
  119
  148
  181
  218
  260
  305
  355
  409
  467
  529
  595
  664
  738
  815
  895
  979
  1,067
  1,158
  1,253
  1,351
  1,454
Variable operating expenses, $m
  38
  59
  89
  129
  182
  250
  335
  440
  567
  716
  889
  1,087
  1,310
  1,558
  1,833
  2,132
  2,455
  2,803
  3,175
  3,570
  3,987
  4,426
  4,887
  5,370
  5,874
  6,400
  6,947
  7,516
  8,109
  8,724
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  38
  59
  89
  129
  182
  250
  335
  440
  567
  716
  889
  1,087
  1,310
  1,558
  1,833
  2,132
  2,455
  2,803
  3,175
  3,570
  3,987
  4,426
  4,887
  5,370
  5,874
  6,400
  6,947
  7,516
  8,109
  8,724
Operating income, $m
  -32
  -49
  -74
  -107
  -151
  -208
  -280
  -367
  -472
  -597
  -741
  -906
  -1,092
  -1,299
  -1,527
  -1,776
  -2,046
  -2,336
  -2,646
  -2,975
  -3,322
  -3,689
  -4,073
  -4,475
  -4,895
  -5,333
  -5,789
  -6,264
  -6,757
  -7,270
EBITDA, $m
  -32
  -49
  -74
  -107
  -151
  -207
  -278
  -365
  -469
  -593
  -736
  -900
  -1,085
  -1,291
  -1,518
  -1,766
  -2,034
  -2,322
  -2,630
  -2,957
  -3,303
  -3,667
  -4,048
  -4,448
  -4,866
  -5,301
  -5,755
  -6,226
  -6,717
  -7,227
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  23
  28
  33
  38
  44
  50
  57
  64
  72
  80
  88
  97
  106
  115
  125
  136
  146
Earnings before tax, $m
  -33
  -50
  -75
  -109
  -154
  -211
  -284
  -373
  -480
  -607
  -753
  -921
  -1,111
  -1,322
  -1,555
  -1,809
  -2,085
  -2,380
  -2,696
  -3,032
  -3,387
  -3,760
  -4,153
  -4,563
  -4,992
  -5,439
  -5,905
  -6,389
  -6,893
  -7,417
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -33
  -50
  -75
  -109
  -154
  -211
  -284
  -373
  -480
  -607
  -753
  -921
  -1,111
  -1,322
  -1,555
  -1,809
  -2,085
  -2,380
  -2,696
  -3,032
  -3,387
  -3,760
  -4,153
  -4,563
  -4,992
  -5,439
  -5,905
  -6,389
  -6,893
  -7,417

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  14
  22
  33
  48
  68
  93
  125
  164
  211
  266
  331
  404
  487
  580
  682
  793
  913
  1,043
  1,181
  1,328
  1,483
  1,647
  1,818
  1,998
  2,185
  2,381
  2,584
  2,796
  3,017
  3,246
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  14
  22
  33
  48
  68
  93
  125
  164
  211
  266
  331
  404
  487
  580
  682
  793
  913
  1,043
  1,181
  1,328
  1,483
  1,647
  1,818
  1,998
  2,185
  2,381
  2,584
  2,796
  3,017
  3,246
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.429
  0.455
  0.455
  0.438
  0.441
  0.452
  0.448
  0.445
  0.445
  0.447
  0.447
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.447
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
  0.448
Average production assets, $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  11
  14
  18
  22
  27
  33
  39
  46
  53
  61
  70
  79
  89
  99
  110
  121
  133
  146
  159
  173
  187
  201
  217
Working capital, $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  10
  13
  16
  20
  24
  29
  35
  41
  47
  54
  62
  70
  79
  88
  98
  108
  119
  130
  142
  154
  167
  180
  193
Total debt, $m
  9
  16
  26
  39
  57
  80
  108
  143
  186
  236
  294
  360
  435
  518
  610
  710
  818
  935
  1,059
  1,191
  1,331
  1,478
  1,632
  1,794
  1,963
  2,139
  2,322
  2,513
  2,711
  2,917
Total liabilities, $m
  13
  20
  30
  43
  61
  84
  112
  147
  190
  240
  298
  364
  439
  522
  614
  714
  822
  939
  1,063
  1,195
  1,335
  1,482
  1,636
  1,798
  1,967
  2,143
  2,326
  2,517
  2,715
  2,921
Total equity, $m
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  16
  21
  27
  33
  40
  49
  58
  68
  79
  91
  104
  118
  133
  148
  165
  182
  200
  219
  238
  258
  280
  302
  325
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  14
  22
  33
  48
  68
  93
  124
  163
  211
  267
  331
  404
  488
  580
  682
  793
  913
  1,043
  1,181
  1,328
  1,483
  1,647
  1,818
  1,998
  2,186
  2,381
  2,584
  2,797
  3,017
  3,246
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.170
  7.170
  7.770
  8.160
  8.400
  8.560
  8.680
  8.750
  8.810
  8.850
  8.880
  8.900
  8.920
  8.930
  8.940
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -33
  -50
  -75
  -109
  -154
  -211
  -284
  -373
  -480
  -607
  -753
  -921
  -1,111
  -1,322
  -1,555
  -1,809
  -2,085
  -2,380
  -2,696
  -3,032
  -3,387
  -3,760
  -4,153
  -4,563
  -4,992
  -5,439
  -5,905
  -6,389
  -6,893
  -7,417
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
Funds from operations, $m
  -32
  -50
  -74
  -108
  -153
  -210
  -282
  -371
  -477
  -603
  -749
  -916
  -1,104
  -1,314
  -1,546
  -1,799
  -2,072
  -2,366
  -2,681
  -3,014
  -3,367
  -3,738
  -4,128
  -4,536
  -4,963
  -5,407
  -5,870
  -6,352
  -6,853
  -7,373
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  -33
  -50
  -75
  -109
  -154
  -212
  -284
  -373
  -480
  -606
  -753
  -920
  -1,109
  -1,320
  -1,552
  -1,805
  -2,080
  -2,374
  -2,689
  -3,023
  -3,376
  -3,748
  -4,138
  -4,547
  -4,974
  -5,419
  -5,882
  -6,364
  -6,866
  -7,387
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
Free cash flow, $m
  -33
  -51
  -76
  -110
  -156
  -214
  -287
  -377
  -485
  -613
  -761
  -930
  -1,120
  -1,333
  -1,567
  -1,822
  -2,098
  -2,395
  -2,712
  -3,049
  -3,404
  -3,779
  -4,172
  -4,583
  -5,013
  -5,461
  -5,928
  -6,413
  -6,918
  -7,442
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  7
  10
  13
  18
  23
  29
  35
  42
  50
  58
  66
  75
  83
  92
  100
  108
  117
  124
  132
  140
  147
  154
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  198
  206
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  39
  51
  76
  110
  156
  214
  287
  377
  485
  612
  760
  929
  1,119
  1,331
  1,565
  1,820
  2,097
  2,393
  2,710
  3,047
  3,402
  3,777
  4,170
  4,581
  5,011
  5,459
  5,925
  6,410
  6,915
  7,439
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  38
  58
  86
  123
  174
  237
  316
  412
  527
  662
  818
  995
  1,194
  1,414
  1,657
  1,920
  2,205
  2,510
  2,834
  3,179
  3,542
  3,924
  4,324
  4,743
  5,180
  5,635
  6,108
  6,601
  7,113
  7,645
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  7
  10
  13
  17
  22
  28
  35
  42
  49
  57
  65
  74
  82
  90
  99
  107
  115
  123
  130
  138
  145
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  188
  195
  203
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -39
  -51
  -76
  -110
  -156
  -214
  -287
  -377
  -485
  -612
  -760
  -929
  -1,119
  -1,331
  -1,565
  -1,820
  -2,097
  -2,393
  -2,710
  -3,047
  -3,402
  -3,777
  -4,170
  -4,581
  -5,011
  -5,459
  -5,925
  -6,410
  -6,915
  -7,439
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  9
  -44
  -66
  -97
  -138
  -191
  -259
  -342
  -443
  -563
  -703
  -864
  -1,046
  -1,249
  -1,475
  -1,722
  -1,990
  -2,279
  -2,588
  -2,916
  -3,265
  -3,632
  -4,018
  -4,422
  -4,844
  -5,285
  -5,744
  -6,222
  -6,720
  -7,236
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  9
  -40
  -58
  -80
  -107
  -139
  -175
  -214
  -254
  -295
  -334
  -368
  -398
  -419
  -433
  -438
  -433
  -420
  -398
  -371
  -338
  -301
  -263
  -225
  -188
  -154
  -123
  -96
  -73
  -54
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  3.5
  0.3
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Miragen Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, develops microRNA-targeted therapies for various unmet medical needs. It focuses on various therapeutic areas, such as cancer, pathologic fibrosis, neuro-inflammatory, and cardiovascular diseases. Its lead product candidates in Phase 1 clinical trials include MRG-106, an inhibitor of microRNA-155, which is used for the treatment of pathological fibrosis; and MRG-201, a replacement for miR-29, which is found at abnormally low levels in various pathological fibrotic conditions, including cardiac, renal, hepatic, and pulmonary fibrosis, as well as systemic sclerosis. Its pre-clinical products include MRG-107, an inhibitor of miR-155 for the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; and MRG-110 that targets miR-92c for the treatment of revascularization disease. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Boulder, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Miragen Therapeutics (MGEN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

MGEN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MGEN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4.003 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Miragen Therapeutics. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Miragen Therapeutics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MGEN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MGEN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Miragen Therapeutics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Miragen Therapeutics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MGEN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 600%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MGEN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Miragen Therapeutics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Miragen Therapeutics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MGEN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MGEN are equal to 14.9%.

Life of production assets of 1.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Miragen Therapeutics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MGEN is equal to 13.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $38.51 million for Miragen Therapeutics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.597 million for Miragen Therapeutics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Miragen Therapeutics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
MGEN Miragen Therap 3.35 0.32  str.sell
ENZ Enzo Biochem 3.18 11.55  str.buy
PMD Psychemedics 18.25 25.42  buy
TROV TrovaGene 0.770 0.09  str.sell
DGX Quest Diagnost 95.72 117.37  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Gaithersburg biotech raising $1M to stop cancer tumors in their tracks   [Jul-03-18 12:38PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Miragen Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:MGEN): Will The Growth Last?   [Dec-28-17 04:45PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ miRagen Therapeutics Provides Corporate Update   [Mar-31-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]

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