Intrinsic value of Magellan Health - MGLN

Previous Close

$73.50

  Intrinsic Value

$294.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+300%

Previous close

$73.50

 
Intrinsic value

$294.09

 
Up/down potential

+300%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of MGLN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  27.60
  25.34
  23.31
  21.48
  19.83
  18.35
  17.01
  15.81
  14.73
  13.76
  12.88
  12.09
  11.38
  10.74
  10.17
  9.65
  9.19
  8.77
  8.39
  8.05
  7.75
  7.47
  7.23
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
Revenue, $m
  7,450
  9,338
  11,514
  13,987
  16,760
  19,835
  23,209
  26,878
  30,837
  35,079
  39,597
  44,385
  49,437
  54,749
  60,317
  66,140
  72,216
  78,549
  85,141
  91,997
  99,125
  106,532
  114,230
  122,230
  130,544
  139,190
  148,182
  157,538
  167,278
  177,423
Variable operating expenses, $m
  7,176
  8,963
  11,022
  13,361
  15,985
  18,895
  22,087
  25,559
  29,304
  33,318
  37,465
  41,996
  46,776
  51,802
  57,070
  62,579
  68,329
  74,321
  80,558
  87,045
  93,789
  100,798
  108,081
  115,650
  123,517
  131,697
  140,205
  149,058
  158,274
  167,872
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,176
  8,963
  11,022
  13,361
  15,985
  18,895
  22,087
  25,559
  29,304
  33,318
  37,465
  41,996
  46,776
  51,802
  57,070
  62,579
  68,329
  74,321
  80,558
  87,045
  93,789
  100,798
  108,081
  115,650
  123,517
  131,697
  140,205
  149,058
  158,274
  167,872
Operating income, $m
  274
  375
  492
  625
  775
  940
  1,122
  1,319
  1,532
  1,761
  2,132
  2,389
  2,661
  2,947
  3,247
  3,560
  3,887
  4,228
  4,583
  4,952
  5,336
  5,735
  6,149
  6,580
  7,027
  7,493
  7,977
  8,480
  9,005
  9,551
EBITDA, $m
  484
  607
  749
  909
  1,090
  1,290
  1,509
  1,747
  2,005
  2,281
  2,574
  2,886
  3,214
  3,559
  3,921
  4,300
  4,695
  5,107
  5,535
  5,981
  6,444
  6,926
  7,426
  7,946
  8,487
  9,049
  9,634
  10,242
  10,875
  11,535
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  46
  71
  100
  134
  173
  216
  264
  316
  373
  434
  500
  571
  645
  723
  806
  893
  983
  1,077
  1,176
  1,278
  1,385
  1,496
  1,611
  1,730
  1,855
  1,984
  2,118
  2,258
  2,403
  2,555
Earnings before tax, $m
  227
  304
  392
  491
  602
  724
  858
  1,003
  1,160
  1,326
  1,631
  1,819
  2,016
  2,224
  2,441
  2,668
  2,904
  3,151
  3,407
  3,674
  3,951
  4,239
  4,538
  4,849
  5,173
  5,509
  5,859
  6,223
  6,601
  6,996
Tax expense, $m
  61
  82
  106
  133
  163
  196
  232
  271
  313
  358
  440
  491
  544
  600
  659
  720
  784
  851
  920
  992
  1,067
  1,145
  1,225
  1,309
  1,397
  1,487
  1,582
  1,680
  1,782
  1,889
Net income, $m
  166
  222
  286
  359
  440
  529
  627
  733
  846
  968
  1,191
  1,328
  1,472
  1,623
  1,782
  1,947
  2,120
  2,300
  2,487
  2,682
  2,884
  3,095
  3,313
  3,540
  3,776
  4,021
  4,277
  4,542
  4,819
  5,107

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,774
  4,730
  5,833
  7,086
  8,490
  10,048
  11,757
  13,616
  15,621
  17,770
  20,059
  22,485
  25,044
  27,735
  30,556
  33,505
  36,584
  39,792
  43,131
  46,605
  50,215
  53,968
  57,867
  61,920
  66,132
  70,511
  75,067
  79,807
  84,741
  89,880
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,774
  4,730
  5,833
  7,086
  8,490
  10,048
  11,757
  13,616
  15,621
  17,770
  20,059
  22,485
  25,044
  27,735
  30,556
  33,505
  36,584
  39,792
  43,131
  46,605
  50,215
  53,968
  57,867
  61,920
  66,132
  70,511
  75,067
  79,807
  84,741
  89,880
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
  1.974
Average production assets, $m
  916
  1,149
  1,416
  1,720
  2,061
  2,440
  2,855
  3,306
  3,793
  4,315
  4,870
  5,459
  6,081
  6,734
  7,419
  8,135
  8,883
  9,662
  10,472
  11,316
  12,192
  13,103
  14,050
  15,034
  16,057
  17,120
  18,226
  19,377
  20,575
  21,823
Working capital, $m
  -7
  -9
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -44
  -49
  -55
  -60
  -66
  -72
  -79
  -85
  -92
  -99
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -131
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -167
  -177
Total debt, $m
  1,317
  1,860
  2,486
  3,198
  3,996
  4,880
  5,851
  6,907
  8,046
  9,267
  10,567
  11,944
  13,398
  14,927
  16,529
  18,204
  19,953
  21,775
  23,672
  25,644
  27,695
  29,827
  32,042
  34,343
  36,736
  39,224
  41,811
  44,503
  47,306
  50,225
Total liabilities, $m
  2,144
  2,687
  3,313
  4,025
  4,823
  5,707
  6,678
  7,734
  8,873
  10,094
  11,394
  12,771
  14,225
  15,754
  17,356
  19,031
  20,780
  22,602
  24,499
  26,471
  28,522
  30,654
  32,869
  35,170
  37,563
  40,051
  42,638
  45,330
  48,133
  51,052
Total equity, $m
  1,630
  2,044
  2,520
  3,061
  3,668
  4,341
  5,079
  5,882
  6,748
  7,677
  8,666
  9,713
  10,819
  11,982
  13,200
  14,474
  15,804
  17,190
  18,633
  20,133
  21,693
  23,314
  24,999
  26,749
  28,569
  30,461
  32,429
  34,476
  36,608
  38,828
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,774
  4,731
  5,833
  7,086
  8,491
  10,048
  11,757
  13,616
  15,621
  17,771
  20,060
  22,484
  25,044
  27,736
  30,556
  33,505
  36,584
  39,792
  43,132
  46,604
  50,215
  53,968
  57,868
  61,919
  66,132
  70,512
  75,067
  79,806
  84,741
  89,880
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.810
  0.910
  0.990
  1.040
  1.090
  1.120
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432
  0.432

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  166
  222
  286
  359
  440
  529
  627
  733
  846
  968
  1,191
  1,328
  1,472
  1,623
  1,782
  1,947
  2,120
  2,300
  2,487
  2,682
  2,884
  3,095
  3,313
  3,540
  3,776
  4,021
  4,277
  4,542
  4,819
  5,107
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  211
  232
  256
  284
  315
  349
  387
  428
  472
  520
  443
  496
  553
  612
  674
  740
  808
  878
  952
  1,029
  1,108
  1,191
  1,277
  1,367
  1,460
  1,556
  1,657
  1,762
  1,870
  1,984
Funds from operations, $m
  377
  454
  542
  642
  754
  878
  1,014
  1,161
  1,319
  1,488
  1,633
  1,824
  2,025
  2,235
  2,456
  2,687
  2,928
  3,178
  3,439
  3,711
  3,993
  4,286
  4,590
  4,907
  5,236
  5,578
  5,934
  6,304
  6,690
  7,091
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from operations, $m
  378
  456
  544
  645
  757
  881
  1,017
  1,164
  1,323
  1,492
  1,638
  1,829
  2,030
  2,241
  2,462
  2,693
  2,934
  3,185
  3,446
  3,718
  4,000
  4,293
  4,598
  4,915
  5,244
  5,587
  5,943
  6,313
  6,699
  7,101
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -65
  -83
  -104
  -129
  -156
  -187
  -222
  -260
  -301
  -345
  -392
  -443
  -496
  -553
  -612
  -674
  -740
  -808
  -878
  -952
  -1,029
  -1,108
  -1,191
  -1,277
  -1,367
  -1,460
  -1,556
  -1,657
  -1,762
  -1,870
New CAPEX, $m
  -200
  -232
  -268
  -304
  -341
  -378
  -415
  -451
  -487
  -522
  -556
  -589
  -621
  -653
  -685
  -716
  -747
  -779
  -811
  -843
  -877
  -911
  -947
  -984
  -1,023
  -1,063
  -1,106
  -1,151
  -1,198
  -1,248
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -265
  -315
  -372
  -433
  -497
  -565
  -637
  -711
  -788
  -867
  -948
  -1,032
  -1,117
  -1,206
  -1,297
  -1,390
  -1,487
  -1,587
  -1,689
  -1,795
  -1,906
  -2,019
  -2,138
  -2,261
  -2,390
  -2,523
  -2,662
  -2,808
  -2,960
  -3,118
Free cash flow, $m
  113
  140
  172
  212
  260
  316
  380
  453
  535
  626
  690
  797
  912
  1,035
  1,165
  1,302
  1,447
  1,598
  1,757
  1,922
  2,094
  2,274
  2,460
  2,654
  2,855
  3,063
  3,280
  3,506
  3,740
  3,983
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  463
  543
  626
  711
  798
  885
  971
  1,056
  1,139
  1,221
  1,300
  1,378
  1,454
  1,528
  1,602
  1,675
  1,749
  1,822
  1,897
  1,973
  2,051
  2,131
  2,215
  2,302
  2,393
  2,488
  2,587
  2,692
  2,803
  2,919
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  188
  191
  190
  183
  167
  144
  112
  70
  20
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  651
  734
  816
  894
  965
  1,029
  1,083
  1,126
  1,159
  1,221
  1,300
  1,378
  1,454
  1,528
  1,602
  1,675
  1,749
  1,822
  1,897
  1,973
  2,051
  2,131
  2,215
  2,302
  2,393
  2,488
  2,587
  2,692
  2,803
  2,919
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  764
  875
  989
  1,106
  1,225
  1,344
  1,463
  1,580
  1,694
  1,846
  1,990
  2,175
  2,366
  2,563
  2,767
  2,978
  3,195
  3,421
  3,654
  3,895
  4,145
  4,405
  4,675
  4,955
  5,247
  5,551
  5,868
  6,198
  6,542
  6,902
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -354
  -413
  -476
  -541
  -607
  -673
  -738
  -803
  -866
  -928
  -989
  -1,048
  -1,106
  -1,162
  -1,219
  -1,274
  -1,330
  -1,386
  -1,443
  -1,500
  -1,560
  -1,621
  -1,685
  -1,751
  -1,820
  -1,892
  -1,968
  -2,048
  -2,132
  -2,220
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  410
  461
  512
  565
  618
  671
  724
  777
  828
  918
  1,001
  1,127
  1,260
  1,401
  1,548
  1,703
  1,865
  2,035
  2,211
  2,395
  2,586
  2,784
  2,990
  3,205
  3,427
  3,659
  3,900
  4,150
  4,411
  4,682
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  393
  422
  446
  465
  479
  487
  489
  485
  476
  481
  476
  481
  479
  470
  455
  433
  406
  375
  340
  304
  267
  231
  196
  163
  133
  107
  84
  64
  48
  35
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  90.6
  83.6
  78.5
  74.6
  71.9
  69.9
  68.7
  68.0
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8
  67.8

Magellan Health, Inc. is engaged in the healthcare management business. The Company's segments include Healthcare, Pharmacy Management and Corporate. It is focused on managing special populations, complete pharmacy benefits and other specialty areas of healthcare. Its Healthcare includes its management of behavioral healthcare services and employee assistance program (EAP) services, management of other specialty areas, including diagnostic imaging and musculoskeletal management, and the integrated management of physical, behavioral and pharmaceutical healthcare for special populations, delivered through Magellan Complete Care (MCC). Its Pharmacy Management segment consists of products and solutions that provide clinical and financial management of pharmaceuticals paid under medical and pharmacy benefit programs. Its Corporate segment consists primarily of operational support functions. It provides services to health plans and other managed care organizations (MCOs).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Magellan Health (MGLN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.2
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 288.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 19.5%
Total Debt to Equity 56.2%
Interest Coverage 17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital 5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 7.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 5.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
EBITDA Margin 5.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Operating Margin 3.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Net Profit Margin 1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Effective Tax Rate 47.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

MGLN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MGLN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5838.583 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Magellan Health. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Magellan Health. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MGLN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MGLN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Magellan Health, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Magellan Health.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MGLN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MGLN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Magellan Health.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Magellan Health. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MGLN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MGLN are equal to 12.3%.

Life of production assets of 11 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Magellan Health operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MGLN is equal to -0.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1276.494 million for Magellan Health - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.555 million for Magellan Health is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Magellan Health at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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