Intrinsic value of Mohawk Industries, Inc. - MHK

Previous Close

$111.34

  Intrinsic Value

$145.04

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+30%

Previous close

$111.34

 
Intrinsic value

$145.04

 
Up/down potential

+30%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of MHK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  10,323
  10,691
  11,087
  11,512
  11,967
  12,452
  12,969
  13,518
  14,101
  14,718
  15,372
  16,064
  16,794
  17,566
  18,380
  19,238
  20,143
  21,096
  22,100
  23,158
  24,270
  25,442
  26,674
  27,969
  29,332
  30,765
  32,272
  33,855
  35,519
  37,269
Variable operating expenses, $m
  8,835
  9,137
  9,463
  9,812
  10,186
  10,585
  11,010
  11,462
  11,941
  12,448
  12,638
  13,206
  13,807
  14,441
  15,110
  15,816
  16,560
  17,344
  18,169
  19,038
  19,953
  20,916
  21,929
  22,994
  24,114
  25,292
  26,531
  27,833
  29,201
  30,639
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,835
  9,137
  9,463
  9,812
  10,186
  10,585
  11,010
  11,462
  11,941
  12,448
  12,638
  13,206
  13,807
  14,441
  15,110
  15,816
  16,560
  17,344
  18,169
  19,038
  19,953
  20,916
  21,929
  22,994
  24,114
  25,292
  26,531
  27,833
  29,201
  30,639
Operating income, $m
  1,488
  1,553
  1,624
  1,700
  1,780
  1,867
  1,959
  2,056
  2,160
  2,270
  2,734
  2,857
  2,987
  3,125
  3,269
  3,422
  3,583
  3,753
  3,931
  4,119
  4,317
  4,526
  4,745
  4,975
  5,218
  5,473
  5,741
  6,022
  6,318
  6,630
EBITDA, $m
  2,258
  2,339
  2,425
  2,518
  2,618
  2,724
  2,837
  2,957
  3,084
  3,220
  3,363
  3,514
  3,674
  3,842
  4,020
  4,208
  4,406
  4,615
  4,834
  5,066
  5,309
  5,565
  5,835
  6,118
  6,416
  6,730
  7,059
  7,405
  7,770
  8,152
Interest expense (income), $m
  57
  176
  186
  197
  209
  222
  236
  251
  267
  284
  302
  321
  341
  362
  384
  408
  433
  459
  487
  516
  547
  579
  613
  649
  687
  726
  768
  812
  858
  906
  957
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,312
  1,367
  1,427
  1,490
  1,558
  1,630
  1,707
  1,789
  1,876
  1,968
  2,414
  2,517
  2,626
  2,741
  2,862
  2,989
  3,124
  3,266
  3,416
  3,573
  3,738
  3,913
  4,096
  4,289
  4,492
  4,705
  4,929
  5,164
  5,412
  5,672
Tax expense, $m
  354
  369
  385
  402
  421
  440
  461
  483
  507
  531
  652
  680
  709
  740
  773
  807
  844
  882
  922
  965
  1,009
  1,056
  1,106
  1,158
  1,213
  1,270
  1,331
  1,394
  1,461
  1,531
Net income, $m
  958
  998
  1,041
  1,088
  1,137
  1,190
  1,246
  1,306
  1,370
  1,437
  1,762
  1,837
  1,917
  2,001
  2,089
  2,182
  2,281
  2,384
  2,493
  2,608
  2,729
  2,856
  2,990
  3,131
  3,279
  3,434
  3,598
  3,770
  3,951
  4,141

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  13,548
  14,030
  14,550
  15,108
  15,704
  16,341
  17,019
  17,740
  18,505
  19,315
  20,173
  21,081
  22,040
  23,052
  24,120
  25,247
  26,434
  27,685
  29,003
  30,391
  31,851
  33,388
  35,005
  36,705
  38,494
  40,374
  42,351
  44,429
  46,613
  48,909
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  13,548
  14,030
  14,550
  15,108
  15,704
  16,341
  17,019
  17,740
  18,505
  19,315
  20,173
  21,081
  22,040
  23,052
  24,120
  25,247
  26,434
  27,685
  29,003
  30,391
  31,851
  33,388
  35,005
  36,705
  38,494
  40,374
  42,351
  44,429
  46,613
  48,909
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
  0.762
Average production assets, $m
  6,411
  6,639
  6,885
  7,149
  7,431
  7,733
  8,054
  8,395
  8,757
  9,140
  9,546
  9,975
  10,429
  10,908
  11,414
  11,947
  12,509
  13,101
  13,724
  14,381
  15,072
  15,799
  16,564
  17,369
  18,215
  19,105
  20,041
  21,024
  22,058
  23,144
Working capital, $m
  2,963
  3,068
  3,182
  3,304
  3,434
  3,574
  3,722
  3,880
  4,047
  4,224
  4,412
  4,610
  4,820
  5,041
  5,275
  5,521
  5,781
  6,055
  6,343
  6,646
  6,966
  7,302
  7,655
  8,027
  8,418
  8,830
  9,262
  9,716
  10,194
  10,696
Total debt, $m
  3,445
  3,654
  3,878
  4,119
  4,377
  4,652
  4,945
  5,256
  5,587
  5,937
  6,308
  6,700
  7,114
  7,551
  8,013
  8,499
  9,012
  9,553
  10,122
  10,721
  11,352
  12,016
  12,715
  13,449
  14,222
  15,034
  15,888
  16,786
  17,730
  18,721
Total liabilities, $m
  5,853
  6,061
  6,286
  6,526
  6,784
  7,059
  7,352
  7,664
  7,994
  8,344
  8,715
  9,107
  9,521
  9,958
  10,420
  10,907
  11,420
  11,960
  12,529
  13,129
  13,760
  14,424
  15,122
  15,857
  16,629
  17,442
  18,296
  19,193
  20,137
  21,129
Total equity, $m
  7,695
  7,969
  8,264
  8,581
  8,920
  9,282
  9,667
  10,076
  10,511
  10,971
  11,459
  11,974
  12,518
  13,094
  13,700
  14,340
  15,015
  15,725
  16,474
  17,262
  18,091
  18,964
  19,883
  20,849
  21,864
  22,932
  24,055
  25,236
  26,476
  27,780
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  13,548
  14,030
  14,550
  15,107
  15,704
  16,341
  17,019
  17,740
  18,505
  19,315
  20,174
  21,081
  22,039
  23,052
  24,120
  25,247
  26,435
  27,685
  29,003
  30,391
  31,851
  33,388
  35,005
  36,706
  38,493
  40,374
  42,351
  44,429
  46,613
  48,909
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568
  0.568

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  958
  998
  1,041
  1,088
  1,137
  1,190
  1,246
  1,306
  1,370
  1,437
  1,762
  1,837
  1,917
  2,001
  2,089
  2,182
  2,281
  2,384
  2,493
  2,608
  2,729
  2,856
  2,990
  3,131
  3,279
  3,434
  3,598
  3,770
  3,951
  4,141
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  770
  785
  801
  819
  837
  857
  878
  901
  924
  950
  628
  656
  686
  718
  751
  786
  823
  862
  903
  946
  992
  1,039
  1,090
  1,143
  1,198
  1,257
  1,318
  1,383
  1,451
  1,523
Funds from operations, $m
  1,728
  1,783
  1,843
  1,906
  1,975
  2,047
  2,125
  2,207
  2,294
  2,386
  2,390
  2,494
  2,603
  2,718
  2,840
  2,968
  3,104
  3,246
  3,396
  3,554
  3,721
  3,896
  4,080
  4,273
  4,477
  4,691
  4,916
  5,153
  5,402
  5,663
Change in working capital, $m
  97
  105
  114
  122
  131
  139
  148
  158
  167
  177
  188
  198
  210
  221
  234
  246
  260
  274
  288
  303
  319
  336
  354
  372
  391
  411
  432
  454
  478
  502
Cash from operations, $m
  1,631
  1,678
  1,729
  1,784
  1,844
  1,908
  1,976
  2,049
  2,127
  2,209
  2,203
  2,295
  2,393
  2,497
  2,606
  2,722
  2,844
  2,972
  3,108
  3,251
  3,401
  3,560
  3,726
  3,902
  4,086
  4,280
  4,484
  4,699
  4,924
  5,161
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -408
  -422
  -437
  -453
  -470
  -489
  -509
  -530
  -552
  -576
  -601
  -628
  -656
  -686
  -718
  -751
  -786
  -823
  -862
  -903
  -946
  -992
  -1,039
  -1,090
  -1,143
  -1,198
  -1,257
  -1,318
  -1,383
  -1,451
New CAPEX, $m
  -214
  -228
  -246
  -264
  -282
  -301
  -321
  -341
  -362
  -384
  -406
  -429
  -454
  -479
  -505
  -533
  -562
  -592
  -624
  -657
  -691
  -727
  -765
  -805
  -846
  -890
  -936
  -983
  -1,034
  -1,086
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -622
  -650
  -683
  -717
  -752
  -790
  -830
  -871
  -914
  -960
  -1,007
  -1,057
  -1,110
  -1,165
  -1,223
  -1,284
  -1,348
  -1,415
  -1,486
  -1,560
  -1,637
  -1,719
  -1,804
  -1,895
  -1,989
  -2,088
  -2,193
  -2,301
  -2,417
  -2,537
Free cash flow, $m
  1,009
  1,028
  1,046
  1,068
  1,091
  1,118
  1,147
  1,178
  1,213
  1,250
  1,195
  1,238
  1,283
  1,332
  1,383
  1,438
  1,496
  1,557
  1,623
  1,691
  1,764
  1,841
  1,922
  2,007
  2,097
  2,192
  2,292
  2,397
  2,507
  2,624
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  187
  208
  225
  241
  258
  275
  293
  311
  330
  350
  371
  392
  414
  437
  461
  487
  513
  541
  569
  599
  631
  664
  698
  735
  773
  812
  854
  898
  944
  992
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  187
  208
  225
  241
  258
  275
  293
  311
  330
  350
  371
  392
  414
  437
  461
  487
  513
  541
  569
  599
  631
  664
  698
  735
  773
  812
  854
  898
  944
  992
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,196
  1,236
  1,271
  1,308
  1,349
  1,393
  1,440
  1,490
  1,543
  1,600
  1,566
  1,630
  1,697
  1,769
  1,845
  1,925
  2,009
  2,098
  2,192
  2,291
  2,395
  2,505
  2,620
  2,742
  2,870
  3,004
  3,146
  3,295
  3,451
  3,616
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -261
  -274
  -295
  -317
  -339
  -362
  -385
  -409
  -434
  -460
  -487
  -515
  -545
  -575
  -607
  -640
  -674
  -711
  -749
  -788
  -830
  -873
  -918
  -966
  -1,016
  -1,068
  -1,123
  -1,180
  -1,241
  -1,304
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  935
  962
  976
  992
  1,010
  1,031
  1,054
  1,080
  1,109
  1,139
  1,079
  1,114
  1,153
  1,194
  1,238
  1,285
  1,334
  1,387
  1,443
  1,503
  1,565
  1,632
  1,702
  1,776
  1,854
  1,936
  2,023
  2,114
  2,210
  2,312
Discount rate, %
  5.10
  5.36
  5.62
  5.90
  6.20
  6.51
  6.83
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.45
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  889
  867
  828
  788
  748
  706
  664
  620
  576
  532
  448
  408
  369
  330
  292
  256
  222
  190
  160
  133
  109
  88
  69
  54
  41
  31
  22
  16
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Mohawk Industries, Inc. is a flooring manufacturer that creates products for residential and commercial spaces around the world. The Company' segments include Global Ceramic, Flooring North America (Flooring NA) and Flooring Rest of the World (Flooring ROW). Its manufacturing and distribution processes provide carpet, rugs, ceramic tile, laminate, wood, stone, luxury vinyl tile and vinyl flooring. The Global Ceramic segment designs, manufactures, sources, distributes and markets a line of ceramic tile, porcelain tile and natural stone products used in the residential and commercial markets for both remodeling and new construction. The Flooring NA segment designs, manufactures, sources, distributes and markets carpet, laminate, carpet pad, rugs, hardwood and vinyl. The Flooring ROW segment designs, manufactures, sources, distributes and markets laminate, hardwood flooring, roofing elements, insulation boards, medium-density fiberboard (MDF), chipboards, and vinyl flooring products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mohawk Industries, Inc. (MHK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8.9
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 19.5%
Total Debt to Equity 43.5%
Interest Coverage 23
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Return On Total Capital 11.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Return On Equity 17.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.2%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
EBITDA Margin 19.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Operating Margin 14.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Net Profit Margin 10.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Effective Tax Rate 24.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

MHK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MHK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $9984 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mohawk Industries, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Mohawk Industries, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MHK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.1%, whose default value for MHK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mohawk Industries, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mohawk Industries, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MHK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MHK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Mohawk Industries, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mohawk Industries, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MHK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MHK are equal to 62.1%.

Life of production assets of 15.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mohawk Industries, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MHK is equal to 28.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $7433.814 million for Mohawk Industries, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 72.334 million for Mohawk Industries, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mohawk Industries, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.1 billion.

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