Intrinsic value of The Middleby Corporation - MIDD

Previous Close

$131.56

  Intrinsic Value

$152.80

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+16%

Previous close

$131.56

 
Intrinsic value

$152.80

 
Up/down potential

+16%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of MIDD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.60
  18.14
  16.83
  15.64
  14.58
  13.62
  12.76
  11.98
  11.28
  10.66
  10.09
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.01
  7.71
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
Revenue, $m
  3,257
  3,847
  4,495
  5,198
  5,956
  6,767
  7,630
  8,545
  9,509
  10,522
  11,584
  12,694
  13,852
  15,059
  16,315
  17,621
  18,979
  20,390
  21,856
  23,380
  24,964
  26,611
  28,324
  30,107
  31,963
  33,896
  35,911
  38,011
  40,202
  42,489
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,629
  3,050
  3,511
  4,011
  4,551
  5,129
  5,743
  6,394
  7,081
  7,802
  8,248
  9,038
  9,863
  10,722
  11,616
  12,546
  13,513
  14,518
  15,562
  16,647
  17,775
  18,947
  20,167
  21,437
  22,758
  24,134
  25,569
  27,064
  28,624
  30,252
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,659
  3,080
  3,542
  4,043
  4,583
  5,162
  5,777
  6,429
  7,116
  7,838
  8,285
  9,076
  9,901
  10,761
  11,656
  12,587
  13,555
  14,561
  15,606
  16,692
  17,821
  18,994
  20,215
  21,486
  22,808
  24,185
  25,621
  27,117
  28,679
  30,308
Operating income, $m
  598
  767
  953
  1,155
  1,372
  1,605
  1,853
  2,116
  2,393
  2,684
  3,299
  3,618
  3,951
  4,298
  4,658
  5,034
  5,424
  5,829
  6,251
  6,688
  7,144
  7,617
  8,109
  8,622
  9,155
  9,711
  10,290
  10,894
  11,523
  12,181
EBITDA, $m
  973
  1,154
  1,352
  1,568
  1,800
  2,049
  2,314
  2,595
  2,891
  3,202
  3,528
  3,869
  4,224
  4,595
  4,980
  5,381
  5,798
  6,232
  6,682
  7,150
  7,636
  8,142
  8,668
  9,216
  9,786
  10,380
  10,998
  11,644
  12,317
  13,019
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  102
  133
  167
  204
  244
  287
  334
  383
  436
  491
  549
  610
  673
  739
  809
  880
  955
  1,033
  1,114
  1,198
  1,285
  1,376
  1,470
  1,568
  1,670
  1,776
  1,887
  2,002
  2,123
  2,248
Earnings before tax, $m
  496
  634
  786
  951
  1,128
  1,318
  1,520
  1,733
  1,957
  2,193
  2,750
  3,009
  3,278
  3,558
  3,850
  4,153
  4,469
  4,796
  5,137
  5,491
  5,859
  6,241
  6,639
  7,054
  7,485
  7,934
  8,403
  8,891
  9,401
  9,933
Tax expense, $m
  134
  171
  212
  257
  305
  356
  410
  468
  528
  592
  743
  812
  885
  961
  1,039
  1,121
  1,207
  1,295
  1,387
  1,483
  1,582
  1,685
  1,793
  1,905
  2,021
  2,142
  2,269
  2,401
  2,538
  2,682
Net income, $m
  362
  463
  574
  694
  824
  962
  1,109
  1,265
  1,429
  1,601
  2,008
  2,196
  2,393
  2,597
  2,810
  3,032
  3,262
  3,501
  3,750
  4,008
  4,277
  4,556
  4,847
  5,149
  5,464
  5,792
  6,134
  6,491
  6,863
  7,251

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,446
  6,434
  7,516
  8,692
  9,960
  11,316
  12,760
  14,289
  15,902
  17,596
  19,372
  21,228
  23,164
  25,182
  27,283
  29,467
  31,737
  34,097
  36,549
  39,097
  41,746
  44,500
  47,365
  50,346
  53,450
  56,683
  60,052
  63,564
  67,228
  71,052
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,446
  6,434
  7,516
  8,692
  9,960
  11,316
  12,760
  14,289
  15,902
  17,596
  19,372
  21,228
  23,164
  25,182
  27,283
  29,467
  31,737
  34,097
  36,549
  39,097
  41,746
  44,500
  47,365
  50,346
  53,450
  56,683
  60,052
  63,564
  67,228
  71,052
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
Average production assets, $m
  1,895
  2,239
  2,616
  3,025
  3,466
  3,938
  4,441
  4,973
  5,534
  6,124
  6,742
  7,388
  8,062
  8,764
  9,495
  10,256
  11,046
  11,867
  12,720
  13,607
  14,529
  15,488
  16,485
  17,522
  18,603
  19,728
  20,900
  22,123
  23,398
  24,728
Working capital, $m
  518
  612
  715
  826
  947
  1,076
  1,213
  1,359
  1,512
  1,673
  1,842
  2,018
  2,203
  2,394
  2,594
  2,802
  3,018
  3,242
  3,475
  3,717
  3,969
  4,231
  4,504
  4,787
  5,082
  5,390
  5,710
  6,044
  6,392
  6,756
Total debt, $m
  2,460
  3,087
  3,773
  4,518
  5,322
  6,182
  7,097
  8,067
  9,089
  10,163
  11,289
  12,466
  13,694
  14,973
  16,305
  17,689
  19,129
  20,625
  22,180
  23,795
  25,475
  27,221
  29,037
  30,927
  32,895
  34,944
  37,080
  39,307
  41,630
  44,054
Total liabilities, $m
  3,453
  4,079
  4,765
  5,511
  6,314
  7,174
  8,090
  9,059
  10,082
  11,156
  12,282
  13,458
  14,686
  15,966
  17,297
  18,682
  20,121
  21,617
  23,172
  24,788
  26,467
  28,213
  30,030
  31,920
  33,887
  35,937
  38,073
  40,300
  42,622
  45,047
Total equity, $m
  1,993
  2,355
  2,751
  3,181
  3,645
  4,142
  4,670
  5,230
  5,820
  6,440
  7,090
  7,769
  8,478
  9,217
  9,985
  10,785
  11,616
  12,479
  13,377
  14,310
  15,279
  16,287
  17,336
  18,427
  19,563
  20,746
  21,979
  23,264
  24,605
  26,005
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,446
  6,434
  7,516
  8,692
  9,959
  11,316
  12,760
  14,289
  15,902
  17,596
  19,372
  21,227
  23,164
  25,183
  27,282
  29,467
  31,737
  34,096
  36,549
  39,098
  41,746
  44,500
  47,366
  50,347
  53,450
  56,683
  60,052
  63,564
  67,227
  71,052
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.230
  1.310
  1.370
  1.420
  1.460
  1.490
  1.520
  1.540
  1.560
  1.580
  1.590
  1.600
  1.620
  1.620
  1.630
  1.640
  1.650
  1.650
  1.660
  1.660
  1.670
  1.670
  1.670
  1.680
  1.680
  1.680
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366
  0.366

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  362
  463
  574
  694
  824
  962
  1,109
  1,265
  1,429
  1,601
  2,008
  2,196
  2,393
  2,597
  2,810
  3,032
  3,262
  3,501
  3,750
  4,008
  4,277
  4,556
  4,847
  5,149
  5,464
  5,792
  6,134
  6,491
  6,863
  7,251
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  375
  386
  399
  413
  428
  444
  461
  479
  498
  518
  229
  250
  273
  297
  322
  348
  374
  402
  431
  461
  493
  525
  559
  594
  631
  669
  708
  750
  793
  838
Funds from operations, $m
  737
  849
  973
  1,107
  1,252
  1,406
  1,570
  1,744
  1,927
  2,119
  2,236
  2,447
  2,666
  2,895
  3,132
  3,379
  3,636
  3,904
  4,181
  4,470
  4,769
  5,081
  5,406
  5,743
  6,095
  6,461
  6,843
  7,241
  7,656
  8,089
Change in working capital, $m
  85
  94
  103
  112
  120
  129
  137
  145
  153
  161
  169
  176
  184
  192
  200
  208
  216
  224
  233
  242
  252
  262
  272
  283
  295
  307
  320
  334
  348
  364
Cash from operations, $m
  652
  756
  870
  996
  1,131
  1,277
  1,433
  1,598
  1,773
  1,958
  2,068
  2,270
  2,482
  2,703
  2,933
  3,172
  3,421
  3,679
  3,948
  4,227
  4,518
  4,819
  5,133
  5,460
  5,800
  6,154
  6,522
  6,907
  7,307
  7,726
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -54
  -64
  -76
  -89
  -103
  -118
  -134
  -151
  -169
  -188
  -208
  -229
  -250
  -273
  -297
  -322
  -348
  -374
  -402
  -431
  -461
  -493
  -525
  -559
  -594
  -631
  -669
  -708
  -750
  -793
New CAPEX, $m
  -310
  -344
  -377
  -409
  -441
  -472
  -503
  -532
  -561
  -590
  -618
  -646
  -674
  -702
  -731
  -760
  -790
  -821
  -853
  -887
  -922
  -959
  -997
  -1,038
  -1,080
  -1,125
  -1,172
  -1,222
  -1,275
  -1,331
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -364
  -408
  -453
  -498
  -544
  -590
  -637
  -683
  -730
  -778
  -826
  -875
  -924
  -975
  -1,028
  -1,082
  -1,138
  -1,195
  -1,255
  -1,318
  -1,383
  -1,452
  -1,522
  -1,597
  -1,674
  -1,756
  -1,841
  -1,930
  -2,025
  -2,124
Free cash flow, $m
  288
  347
  418
  498
  588
  687
  797
  916
  1,044
  1,180
  1,242
  1,396
  1,557
  1,727
  1,905
  2,090
  2,283
  2,484
  2,692
  2,909
  3,134
  3,368
  3,611
  3,863
  4,125
  4,398
  4,681
  4,976
  5,282
  5,602
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  568
  626
  686
  745
  803
  860
  915
  969
  1,022
  1,074
  1,126
  1,177
  1,228
  1,279
  1,332
  1,385
  1,440
  1,496
  1,555
  1,616
  1,679
  1,746
  1,816
  1,890
  1,968
  2,050
  2,136
  2,227
  2,323
  2,424
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  568
  626
  686
  745
  803
  860
  915
  969
  1,022
  1,074
  1,126
  1,177
  1,228
  1,279
  1,332
  1,385
  1,440
  1,496
  1,555
  1,616
  1,679
  1,746
  1,816
  1,890
  1,968
  2,050
  2,136
  2,227
  2,323
  2,424
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  856
  974
  1,104
  1,243
  1,391
  1,548
  1,712
  1,885
  2,066
  2,255
  2,368
  2,572
  2,785
  3,006
  3,236
  3,475
  3,722
  3,980
  4,247
  4,525
  4,814
  5,114
  5,427
  5,753
  6,093
  6,447
  6,817
  7,203
  7,605
  8,026
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -328
  -362
  -396
  -430
  -464
  -497
  -528
  -560
  -590
  -620
  -650
  -679
  -709
  -739
  -769
  -799
  -831
  -864
  -897
  -933
  -969
  -1,008
  -1,049
  -1,091
  -1,136
  -1,183
  -1,233
  -1,286
  -1,341
  -1,399
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  528
  612
  708
  813
  927
  1,051
  1,184
  1,326
  1,476
  1,635
  1,718
  1,893
  2,076
  2,268
  2,467
  2,675
  2,891
  3,116
  3,349
  3,592
  3,844
  4,106
  4,379
  4,662
  4,957
  5,264
  5,584
  5,917
  6,264
  6,626
Discount rate, %
  7.80
  8.19
  8.60
  9.03
  9.48
  9.95
  10.45
  10.98
  11.52
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.41
  27.73
  29.12
  30.58
  32.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  490
  523
  553
  575
  590
  595
  590
  576
  553
  522
  461
  421
  378
  332
  286
  242
  200
  161
  127
  98
  74
  54
  39
  27
  18
  12
  8
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Middleby Corporation is engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of commercial foodservice, food processing equipment and residential kitchen equipment. The Company operates in three segments: the Commercial Foodservice Equipment Group, the Food Processing Equipment Group and the Residential Kitchen Equipment Group. It is also engaged in the design, manufacture, marketing, distribution and service of a range of foodservice equipment used in commercial restaurants and institutional kitchens; food preparation, cooking, baking, chilling and packaging equipment for food processing operations, and kitchen equipment, including ranges, ovens, refrigerators, ventilation and dishwashers used in the residential market. It manufactured and assembled the equipment at 28 facilities in the United States, and 23 international manufacturing facilities as of December 31, 2016. Its brands include Anets, Beech, Blodgett, Blodgett Combi, Stewart Systems, Mercury, Rangemaster, Rayburn and Redfyre.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  The Middleby Corporation (MIDD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.7
Price to Sales 3.3
Price to Book 6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 24.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 13.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 57.4%
Total Debt to Equity 57.9%
Interest Coverage 21
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Return On Total Capital 14.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Return On Equity 23.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.2%
EBITDA Margin 22%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Operating Margin 19.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Net Profit Margin 12.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Effective Tax Rate 32.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

MIDD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MIDD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2723 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by The Middleby Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of The Middleby Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MIDD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.8%, whose default value for MIDD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of The Middleby Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of The Middleby Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MIDD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $29 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MIDD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for The Middleby Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for The Middleby Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MIDD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MIDD are equal to 58.2%.

Life of production assets of 29.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in The Middleby Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MIDD is equal to 15.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1665.203 million for The Middleby Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 55.728 million for The Middleby Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of The Middleby Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.3 billion.

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