Intrinsic value of Michaels Cos. - MIK

Previous Close

$17.50

  Intrinsic Value

$3.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-80%

Previous close

$17.50

 
Intrinsic value

$3.57

 
Up/down potential

-80%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MIK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  5,469
  5,595
  5,739
  5,900
  6,079
  6,275
  6,489
  6,720
  6,970
  7,237
  7,523
  7,829
  8,154
  8,499
  8,866
  9,254
  9,666
  10,101
  10,560
  11,045
  11,557
  12,097
  12,666
  13,266
  13,898
  14,563
  15,262
  15,999
  16,774
  17,589
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,714
  4,822
  4,946
  5,085
  5,238
  5,407
  5,591
  5,789
  6,004
  6,233
  6,465
  6,728
  7,007
  7,304
  7,619
  7,953
  8,306
  8,680
  9,075
  9,492
  9,932
  10,396
  10,885
  11,400
  11,943
  12,515
  13,116
  13,749
  14,415
  15,115
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,714
  4,822
  4,946
  5,085
  5,238
  5,407
  5,591
  5,789
  6,004
  6,233
  6,465
  6,728
  7,007
  7,304
  7,619
  7,953
  8,306
  8,680
  9,075
  9,492
  9,932
  10,396
  10,885
  11,400
  11,943
  12,515
  13,116
  13,749
  14,415
  15,115
Operating income, $m
  755
  773
  793
  816
  841
  868
  898
  931
  966
  1,004
  1,058
  1,101
  1,147
  1,195
  1,247
  1,301
  1,359
  1,420
  1,485
  1,553
  1,625
  1,701
  1,781
  1,866
  1,954
  2,048
  2,146
  2,250
  2,359
  2,473
EBITDA, $m
  869
  889
  911
  937
  966
  997
  1,031
  1,067
  1,107
  1,149
  1,195
  1,243
  1,295
  1,350
  1,408
  1,470
  1,535
  1,604
  1,677
  1,754
  1,836
  1,921
  2,012
  2,107
  2,207
  2,313
  2,424
  2,541
  2,664
  2,794
Interest expense (income), $m
  113
  147
  56
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  143
  152
  162
  172
  182
  194
  206
  218
  231
  245
  260
  275
  291
Earnings before tax, $m
  608
  717
  735
  754
  776
  800
  826
  854
  884
  917
  966
  1,003
  1,042
  1,084
  1,128
  1,175
  1,225
  1,277
  1,333
  1,392
  1,453
  1,519
  1,587
  1,660
  1,736
  1,817
  1,901
  1,990
  2,084
  2,182
Tax expense, $m
  164
  194
  198
  204
  210
  216
  223
  231
  239
  248
  261
  271
  281
  293
  305
  317
  331
  345
  360
  376
  392
  410
  429
  448
  469
  490
  513
  537
  563
  589
Net income, $m
  444
  524
  536
  551
  567
  584
  603
  624
  646
  669
  705
  732
  761
  791
  823
  858
  894
  932
  973
  1,016
  1,061
  1,109
  1,159
  1,212
  1,267
  1,326
  1,388
  1,453
  1,521
  1,593

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,346
  2,400
  2,462
  2,531
  2,608
  2,692
  2,784
  2,883
  2,990
  3,105
  3,227
  3,358
  3,498
  3,646
  3,803
  3,970
  4,147
  4,333
  4,530
  4,738
  4,958
  5,190
  5,434
  5,691
  5,962
  6,247
  6,548
  6,864
  7,196
  7,546
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,346
  2,400
  2,462
  2,531
  2,608
  2,692
  2,784
  2,883
  2,990
  3,105
  3,227
  3,358
  3,498
  3,646
  3,803
  3,970
  4,147
  4,333
  4,530
  4,738
  4,958
  5,190
  5,434
  5,691
  5,962
  6,247
  6,548
  6,864
  7,196
  7,546
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
  2.331
Average production assets, $m
  498
  509
  522
  537
  553
  571
  591
  612
  634
  659
  685
  712
  742
  773
  807
  842
  880
  919
  961
  1,005
  1,052
  1,101
  1,153
  1,207
  1,265
  1,325
  1,389
  1,456
  1,526
  1,601
Working capital, $m
  323
  330
  339
  348
  359
  370
  383
  397
  411
  427
  444
  462
  481
  501
  523
  546
  570
  596
  623
  652
  682
  714
  747
  783
  820
  859
  900
  944
  990
  1,038
Total debt, $m
  1,029
  1,077
  1,133
  1,195
  1,264
  1,340
  1,422
  1,512
  1,608
  1,711
  1,822
  1,940
  2,065
  2,199
  2,340
  2,490
  2,649
  2,817
  2,994
  3,182
  3,379
  3,588
  3,807
  4,039
  4,283
  4,540
  4,810
  5,094
  5,393
  5,708
Total liabilities, $m
  2,112
  2,160
  2,216
  2,278
  2,347
  2,423
  2,505
  2,595
  2,691
  2,794
  2,905
  3,023
  3,148
  3,282
  3,423
  3,573
  3,732
  3,900
  4,077
  4,265
  4,462
  4,671
  4,890
  5,122
  5,366
  5,623
  5,893
  6,177
  6,476
  6,791
Total equity, $m
  235
  240
  246
  253
  261
  269
  278
  288
  299
  310
  323
  336
  350
  365
  380
  397
  415
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  543
  569
  596
  625
  655
  686
  720
  755
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,347
  2,400
  2,462
  2,531
  2,608
  2,692
  2,783
  2,883
  2,990
  3,104
  3,228
  3,359
  3,498
  3,647
  3,803
  3,970
  4,147
  4,333
  4,530
  4,739
  4,958
  5,190
  5,433
  5,691
  5,962
  6,248
  6,548
  6,863
  7,196
  7,546
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.380
  4.490
  4.600
  4.720
  4.850
  4.980
  5.110
  5.240
  5.380
  5.510
  5.640
  5.780
  5.900
  6.030
  6.150
  6.270
  6.390
  6.500
  6.610
  6.710
  6.820
  6.910
  7.010
  7.100
  7.180
  7.270
  7.350
  7.420
  7.490
  7.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  444
  524
  536
  551
  567
  584
  603
  624
  646
  669
  705
  732
  761
  791
  823
  858
  894
  932
  973
  1,016
  1,061
  1,109
  1,159
  1,212
  1,267
  1,326
  1,388
  1,453
  1,521
  1,593
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  114
  116
  119
  121
  125
  128
  132
  136
  141
  146
  137
  142
  148
  155
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  231
  241
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
  320
Funds from operations, $m
  557
  639
  655
  672
  691
  712
  735
  760
  787
  815
  842
  874
  909
  946
  985
  1,026
  1,070
  1,116
  1,165
  1,217
  1,271
  1,329
  1,389
  1,453
  1,520
  1,591
  1,666
  1,744
  1,826
  1,913
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
Cash from operations, $m
  551
  632
  646
  663
  681
  701
  723
  746
  772
  799
  825
  856
  890
  925
  963
  1,003
  1,046
  1,091
  1,138
  1,188
  1,241
  1,297
  1,356
  1,418
  1,483
  1,552
  1,624
  1,701
  1,781
  1,865
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -97
  -100
  -102
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -114
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -241
  -253
  -265
  -278
  -291
  -305
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -123
  -129
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -248
  -259
  -272
  -286
  -298
  -314
  -329
  -345
  -362
  -379
Free cash flow, $m
  443
  521
  532
  544
  557
  572
  589
  607
  627
  648
  667
  692
  718
  746
  775
  807
  840
  875
  912
  952
  994
  1,038
  1,084
  1,133
  1,184
  1,238
  1,296
  1,356
  1,419
  1,486
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,698
  49
  56
  62
  69
  76
  83
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  126
  133
  142
  150
  159
  168
  177
  187
  198
  208
  220
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  299
  315
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1,300
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -398
  49
  56
  62
  69
  76
  83
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  126
  133
  142
  150
  159
  168
  177
  187
  198
  208
  220
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  299
  315
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  46
  570
  587
  606
  626
  648
  671
  696
  723
  751
  778
  810
  843
  879
  917
  957
  999
  1,043
  1,090
  1,139
  1,191
  1,246
  1,304
  1,364
  1,428
  1,495
  1,566
  1,640
  1,718
  1,800
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,744
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -1,698
  564
  581
  599
  619
  640
  662
  687
  712
  740
  765
  796
  829
  864
  901
  940
  981
  1,024
  1,070
  1,118
  1,169
  1,223
  1,279
  1,339
  1,401
  1,467
  1,536
  1,609
  1,685
  1,765
Discount rate, %
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.59
  15.32
  16.08
  16.89
  17.73
  18.62
  19.55
  20.52
  21.55
  22.63
  23.76
  24.95
  26.19
  27.50
  28.88
  30.32
  31.84
  33.43
  35.10
  36.86
  38.70
  40.64
  42.67
  44.80
  47.04
  49.39
  51.86
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -1,508
  440
  393
  347
  303
  261
  222
  186
  153
  124
  98
  77
  58
  44
  32
  23
  16
  11
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

The Michaels Companies, Inc. (Michaels) is an arts and crafts specialty retailer in North America. The Company's segments include Michaels-U.S., Michaels-Canada, Aaron Brothers, Pat Catan's and Darice. As of January 28, 2017, the Company operated 1,223 Michaels retail stores in 49 states and Canada, with approximately 18,000 average square feet of selling space per store. It operated 109 Aaron Brothers stores in nine states, with approximately 5,500 average square feet of selling space and 35 Pat Catan's stores in five states, with approximately 32,000 average square feet of selling space, as of January 28, 2017. The Company also operates an international wholesale business under the Darice brand name. The Company's stores purchase custom frames, framing supplies and mats from its framing operation and subsidiary, Artistree, Inc. (Artistree), which consists of a manufacturing facility and four regional processing centers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Michaels Cos. (MIK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8.9
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book -2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -8.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -160.4%
Total Debt to Equity -162.2%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 21.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Return On Total Capital 36%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Return On Equity -22.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.6%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.7%
EBITDA Margin 15.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Operating Margin 13.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Net Profit Margin 7.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Effective Tax Rate 35.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

MIK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MIK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5361.96 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Michaels Cos.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Michaels Cos.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MIK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.6%, whose default value for MIK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Michaels Cos., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Michaels Cos..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MIK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MIK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Michaels Cos..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Michaels Cos.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MIK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MIK are equal to 9.1%.

Life of production assets of 4.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Michaels Cos. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MIK is equal to 5.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-1509.495 million for Michaels Cos. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 182.074 million for Michaels Cos. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Michaels Cos. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Martha Stewart collection to expand at Michaels stores   [Apr-04-18 09:01AM  MarketWatch]
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▶ Michaels to close 94 Aaron Brothers stores, including 5 in Sacramento area   [Mar-24-18 09:16PM  American City Business Journals]

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