Intrinsic value of Mobile Mini - MINI

Previous Close

$47.55

  Intrinsic Value

$6.89

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

Previous close

$47.55

 
Intrinsic value

$6.89

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MINI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  560
  588
  617
  647
  679
  712
  748
  785
  824
  864
  907
  952
  1,000
  1,050
  1,102
  1,157
  1,214
  1,275
  1,338
  1,405
  1,475
  1,549
  1,626
  1,707
  1,792
  1,882
  1,976
  2,075
  2,178
  2,287
Variable operating expenses, $m
  436
  457
  479
  503
  527
  553
  581
  609
  639
  671
  701
  736
  773
  811
  852
  894
  939
  985
  1,034
  1,086
  1,140
  1,197
  1,257
  1,320
  1,385
  1,455
  1,527
  1,603
  1,684
  1,768
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  436
  457
  479
  503
  527
  553
  581
  609
  639
  671
  701
  736
  773
  811
  852
  894
  939
  985
  1,034
  1,086
  1,140
  1,197
  1,257
  1,320
  1,385
  1,455
  1,527
  1,603
  1,684
  1,768
Operating income, $m
  124
  131
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  194
  206
  216
  227
  238
  250
  263
  276
  289
  304
  319
  335
  352
  369
  388
  407
  427
  449
  471
  495
  519
EBITDA, $m
  344
  361
  379
  397
  417
  438
  459
  482
  506
  531
  557
  585
  614
  645
  677
  711
  746
  783
  822
  863
  906
  951
  999
  1,049
  1,101
  1,156
  1,214
  1,275
  1,338
  1,405
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Earnings before tax, $m
  121
  131
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  194
  206
  216
  227
  238
  250
  263
  276
  289
  304
  319
  335
  352
  369
  388
  407
  427
  449
  471
  495
  519
Tax expense, $m
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  56
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  134
  140
Net income, $m
  88
  95
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  135
  141
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  283
  297
  312
  328
  344
  361
  379

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Average production assets, $m
  2,170
  2,276
  2,388
  2,506
  2,629
  2,759
  2,896
  3,039
  3,190
  3,348
  3,514
  3,689
  3,872
  4,065
  4,267
  4,480
  4,703
  4,937
  5,183
  5,442
  5,713
  5,998
  6,298
  6,612
  6,942
  7,289
  7,652
  8,035
  8,436
  8,857
Working capital, $m
  -463
  -485
  -509
  -534
  -561
  -588
  -618
  -648
  -680
  -714
  -749
  -787
  -826
  -867
  -910
  -955
  -1,003
  -1,053
  -1,105
  -1,161
  -1,218
  -1,279
  -1,343
  -1,410
  -1,481
  -1,554
  -1,632
  -1,714
  -1,799
  -1,889
Total debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  88
  95
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  135
  141
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  283
  297
  312
  328
  344
  361
  379
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  220
  230
  242
  253
  266
  279
  292
  307
  322
  338
  351
  369
  387
  406
  427
  448
  470
  494
  518
  544
  571
  600
  630
  661
  694
  729
  765
  803
  844
  886
Funds from operations, $m
  308
  326
  342
  359
  376
  395
  414
  435
  456
  479
  502
  527
  553
  580
  609
  640
  672
  705
  740
  777
  816
  857
  899
  944
  991
  1,041
  1,093
  1,147
  1,205
  1,265
Change in working capital, $m
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
Cash from operations, $m
  330
  348
  366
  384
  403
  422
  443
  465
  488
  513
  537
  564
  592
  622
  652
  685
  719
  755
  793
  832
  874
  917
  963
  1,011
  1,062
  1,115
  1,170
  1,229
  1,290
  1,355
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -335
  -351
  -369
  -387
  -406
  -427
  -448
  -470
  -494
  -518
  -544
  -571
  -600
  -630
  -661
  -694
  -729
  -765
  -803
  -844
New CAPEX, $m
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -183
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -285
  -299
  -314
  -330
  -347
  -364
  -382
  -401
  -421
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -310
  -324
  -340
  -357
  -375
  -393
  -412
  -433
  -455
  -477
  -501
  -526
  -552
  -580
  -608
  -639
  -671
  -704
  -740
  -776
  -815
  -856
  -899
  -944
  -991
  -1,041
  -1,093
  -1,147
  -1,204
  -1,265
Free cash flow, $m
  20
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  81
  85
  90
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -60
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -60
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -40
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  81
  85
  90
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -60
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  60
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -40
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  81
  85
  90
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -39
  23
  23
  22
  22
  21
  21
  20
  19
  19
  17
  16
  15
  14
  13
  12
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Mobile Mini, Inc. is a provider of portable storage solutions. The Company, through its subsidiary, Evergreen Tank Solutions, Inc. (ETS), is a provider of specialty containment solutions in the United States. The Company manages its business as two portable storage solutions business segments, North America and the U.K., and one specialty containment business segment. The Company's business consists of two product categories: portable storage solutions and specialty containment solutions. Portable storage solutions consist of its container and office product offerings. The Company offers a range of portable storage products with features, such as locking systems, doors, electrical wiring and shelving. Its specialty containment products consist of liquid and solid containment units, pumps and filtration equipment. As of December 31, 2016, its network included 125 portable storage locations, 19 specialty containment locations and 14 combined locations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mobile Mini (MINI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 44.8
Price to Sales 4.1
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 43.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -17%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 40.2%
Total Debt to Equity 127.3%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Total Capital 2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Equity 6.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 96.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 96.1%
EBITDA Margin 30.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26%
Operating Margin 20.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Effective Tax Rate 31.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -143.7%
Payout Ratio 76.6%

MINI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MINI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $534 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mobile Mini. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Mobile Mini. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MINI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MINI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mobile Mini, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mobile Mini.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MINI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MINI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Mobile Mini.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mobile Mini. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MINI stock is equal to 1.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MINI are equal to 387.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mobile Mini operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MINI is equal to -82.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Mobile Mini - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 44 million for Mobile Mini is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mobile Mini at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
GFN General Financ 13.85 1.49  str.sell
PSA Public Storage 222.12 55.08  str.sell
LSI Life Storage 95.57 35.34  str.sell
NSA National Stora 30.01 8.72  str.sell
CUBE CubeSmart 30.69 7.98  str.sell
EXR Extra Space St 94.57 55.45  sell
CAI CAI Internatio 22.06 7.11  str.sell
IRM Iron Mountain 34.95 31.51  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Should You Buy Mobile Mini Inc (NASDAQ:MINI) At This PE Ratio?   [Jun-22-18 07:18AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Mobile Mini, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Apr-20-18 10:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Mobile Mini: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:53AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mobile Mini Announces Annual Meeting Date   [Feb-20-18 08:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why Mobile Mini Shares Popped Today   [Feb-02-18 12:29PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Mobile Mini, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [08:10AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Mobile Mini beats Street 4Q forecasts   [06:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mobile Mini to Host Investor Day on February 27th   [Jan-29-18 08:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ Profit Woes Plague Mobile Mini   [Oct-20-17 01:43PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Mobile Mini misses 3Q profit forecasts   [06:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mobile Mini Finalizes Rebrand; Launching New Website   [Sep-20-17 08:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Mobile Mini, Inc. : August 4, 2017   [Aug-04-17 07:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Houston energy contractors CFO to leave for Phoenix company   [Aug-01-17 01:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Mobile Mini misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-21-17 08:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Mobile Mini, Inc. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 02:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Mobile Mini Announces Launch of MM Connect   [Jun-19-17 03:25PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Mobile Mini, Inc. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 02:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Mobile Mini, Inc. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 04:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Mobile Mini, Inc. : May 2, 2017   [May-02-17 04:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Mobile Mini meets 1Q profit forecasts   [06:40AM  Associated Press]
Follow us on:   twitter   twitter   twitter   twitter

ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2018. All rigths reserved.