Intrinsic value of Mobile Mini - MINI

Previous Close

$36.95

  Intrinsic Value

$9.32

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-75%

Previous close

$36.95

 
Intrinsic value

$9.32

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MINI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.14
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.46
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  509
  541
  573
  608
  643
  681
  719
  760
  802
  847
  893
  941
  992
  1,045
  1,100
  1,158
  1,219
  1,283
  1,349
  1,419
  1,493
  1,569
  1,650
  1,734
  1,823
  1,916
  2,013
  2,116
  2,223
  2,335
  2,453
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  498
  524
  551
  579
  609
  639
  671
  705
  740
  776
  744
  784
  826
  870
  916
  964
  1,014
  1,067
  1,122
  1,180
  1,241
  1,305
  1,371
  1,441
  1,515
  1,592
  1,673
  1,758
  1,847
  1,940
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  405
  498
  524
  551
  579
  609
  639
  671
  705
  740
  776
  744
  784
  826
  870
  916
  964
  1,014
  1,067
  1,122
  1,180
  1,241
  1,305
  1,371
  1,441
  1,515
  1,592
  1,673
  1,758
  1,847
  1,940
Operating income, $m
  104
  43
  50
  57
  64
  72
  80
  89
  98
  107
  116
  197
  208
  219
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
  312
  329
  345
  363
  382
  401
  421
  443
  465
  489
  514
EBITDA, $m
  168
  153
  163
  172
  183
  193
  204
  216
  228
  240
  253
  267
  281
  297
  312
  329
  346
  364
  383
  403
  424
  445
  468
  492
  517
  544
  571
  600
  631
  663
  696
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
Earnings before tax, $m
  69
  10
  14
  18
  23
  28
  33
  38
  43
  49
  54
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
  279
  293
  307
  322
Tax expense, $m
  22
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
Net income, $m
  47
  7
  10
  13
  17
  20
  24
  27
  31
  35
  40
  96
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  204
  214
  224
  235

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,005
  2,128
  2,258
  2,392
  2,533
  2,680
  2,832
  2,992
  3,159
  3,333
  3,515
  3,706
  3,905
  4,114
  4,332
  4,560
  4,800
  5,050
  5,313
  5,588
  5,877
  6,179
  6,496
  6,828
  7,177
  7,543
  7,927
  8,329
  8,751
  9,194
  9,659
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,001
  2,128
  2,258
  2,392
  2,533
  2,680
  2,832
  2,992
  3,159
  3,333
  3,515
  3,706
  3,905
  4,114
  4,332
  4,560
  4,800
  5,050
  5,313
  5,588
  5,877
  6,179
  6,496
  6,828
  7,177
  7,543
  7,927
  8,329
  8,751
  9,194
  9,659
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
Average production assets, $m
  1,020
  1,083
  1,149
  1,217
  1,289
  1,363
  1,441
  1,522
  1,607
  1,696
  1,788
  1,885
  1,987
  2,093
  2,204
  2,320
  2,442
  2,569
  2,703
  2,843
  2,990
  3,144
  3,305
  3,474
  3,651
  3,838
  4,033
  4,237
  4,452
  4,678
  4,914
Working capital, $m
  0
  270
  287
  304
  322
  340
  360
  380
  401
  423
  446
  471
  496
  522
  550
  579
  610
  641
  675
  710
  746
  785
  825
  867
  912
  958
  1,007
  1,058
  1,111
  1,168
  1,227
Total debt, $m
  937
  1,013
  1,095
  1,180
  1,269
  1,361
  1,458
  1,559
  1,664
  1,775
  1,890
  2,010
  2,136
  2,268
  2,406
  2,550
  2,701
  2,860
  3,026
  3,200
  3,382
  3,573
  3,773
  3,984
  4,204
  4,435
  4,678
  4,932
  5,199
  5,479
  5,773
Total liabilities, $m
  1,269
  1,345
  1,427
  1,512
  1,601
  1,693
  1,790
  1,891
  1,996
  2,107
  2,222
  2,342
  2,468
  2,600
  2,738
  2,882
  3,033
  3,192
  3,358
  3,532
  3,714
  3,905
  4,105
  4,316
  4,536
  4,767
  5,010
  5,264
  5,531
  5,811
  6,105
Total equity, $m
  736
  783
  831
  880
  932
  986
  1,042
  1,101
  1,163
  1,227
  1,294
  1,364
  1,437
  1,514
  1,594
  1,678
  1,766
  1,858
  1,955
  2,056
  2,163
  2,274
  2,391
  2,513
  2,641
  2,776
  2,917
  3,065
  3,220
  3,384
  3,555
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,005
  2,128
  2,258
  2,392
  2,533
  2,679
  2,832
  2,992
  3,159
  3,334
  3,516
  3,706
  3,905
  4,114
  4,332
  4,560
  4,799
  5,050
  5,313
  5,588
  5,877
  6,179
  6,496
  6,829
  7,177
  7,543
  7,927
  8,329
  8,751
  9,195
  9,660
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.273
  1.290
  1.320
  1.340
  1.360
  1.380
  1.400
  1.420
  1.430
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
  1.540
  1.550
  1.560
  1.560
  1.570
  1.580
  1.590
  1.590
  1.600
  1.600
  1.610
  1.610
  1.620
  1.620
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  47
  7
  10
  13
  17
  20
  24
  27
  31
  35
  40
  96
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  204
  214
  224
  235
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  64
  111
  113
  116
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
  133
  137
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  100
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
Funds from operations, $m
  119
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  154
  162
  169
  177
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  222
  234
  245
  257
  270
  284
  298
  313
  328
  344
  361
  379
  398
  418
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Cash from operations, $m
  136
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  153
  141
  149
  156
  164
  173
  182
  191
  200
  210
  221
  232
  243
  256
  268
  282
  296
  310
  326
  342
  359
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
New CAPEX, $m
  -88
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -237
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -88
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -240
  -253
  -265
  -278
  -292
  -306
  -322
  -338
  -355
  -373
  -391
  -411
Free cash flow, $m
  48
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -233
  80
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  267
  280
  294
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -11
  40
  37
  36
  35
  34
  33
  31
  30
  29
  27
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -9
  120
  119
  121
  124
  127
  130
  132
  135
  139
  142
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  267
  280
  294
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  39
  121
  120
  122
  124
  127
  129
  132
  134
  137
  140
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  30
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  74
  72
  72
  73
  73
  73
  73
  73
  73
  73
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
Discount rate, %
 
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.24
  23.35
  24.52
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.50
  36.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  68
  61
  55
  49
  44
  38
  33
  29
  24
  20
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.6
  95.6
  93.8
  92.2
  90.7
  89.4
  88.2
  87.1
  86.2
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3
  85.3

Mobile Mini, Inc. is a provider of portable storage solutions. The Company, through its subsidiary, Evergreen Tank Solutions, Inc. (ETS), is a provider of specialty containment solutions in the United States. The Company manages its business as two portable storage solutions business segments, North America and the U.K., and one specialty containment business segment. The Company's business consists of two product categories: portable storage solutions and specialty containment solutions. Portable storage solutions consist of its container and office product offerings. The Company offers a range of portable storage products with features, such as locking systems, doors, electrical wiring and shelving. Its specialty containment products consist of liquid and solid containment units, pumps and filtration equipment. As of December 31, 2016, its network included 125 portable storage locations, 19 specialty containment locations and 14 combined locations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mobile Mini (MINI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.8
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12
Price to Free Cash Flow 34.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -17%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 40.2%
Total Debt to Equity 127.3%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Total Capital 2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Equity 6.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 96.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 96.1%
EBITDA Margin 30.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26%
Operating Margin 20.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Effective Tax Rate 31.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -143.7%
Payout Ratio 76.6%

MINI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MINI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $509 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mobile Mini. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Mobile Mini. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MINI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.8%, whose default value for MINI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mobile Mini, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mobile Mini.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MINI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MINI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Mobile Mini.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mobile Mini. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MINI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MINI are equal to 200.3%.

Life of production assets of 26.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mobile Mini operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MINI is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $736 million for Mobile Mini - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 44.638 million for Mobile Mini is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mobile Mini at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Profit Woes Plague Mobile Mini   [Oct-20-17 01:43PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Mobile Mini misses 3Q profit forecasts   [06:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mobile Mini Finalizes Rebrand; Launching New Website   [Sep-20-17 08:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Mobile Mini, Inc. : August 4, 2017   [Aug-04-17 07:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Houston energy contractors CFO to leave for Phoenix company   [Aug-01-17 01:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Mobile Mini misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-21-17 08:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Mobile Mini, Inc. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 02:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Mobile Mini Announces Launch of MM Connect   [Jun-19-17 03:25PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Mobile Mini, Inc. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 02:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Mobile Mini, Inc. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 04:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Mobile Mini, Inc. : May 2, 2017   [May-02-17 04:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Mobile Mini meets 1Q profit forecasts   [06:40AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mobile Mini Announces CFO Transition   [Mar-13-17 06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Mobile Mini Announces Rebrand   [Feb-28-17 12:25PM  Business Wire]
▶ Mobile Mini Announces Annual Meeting Date   [Feb-15-17 05:31PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Mobile Mini Inc (MINI) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-13-16 02:35AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Should You Avoid OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. (OB)?   [Dec-10-16 08:20AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of MINI
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