Intrinsic value of MiX Telematics ADR - MIXT

Previous Close

$17.86

  Intrinsic Value

$12.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-31%

Previous close

$17.86

 
Intrinsic value

$12.35

 
Up/down potential

-31%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MIXT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  28.90
  26.51
  24.36
  22.42
  20.68
  19.11
  17.70
  16.43
  15.29
  14.26
  13.33
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.35
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
Revenue, $m
  186
  235
  293
  358
  433
  515
  607
  706
  814
  930
  1,054
  1,186
  1,325
  1,472
  1,626
  1,788
  1,956
  2,132
  2,315
  2,506
  2,704
  2,909
  3,123
  3,346
  3,577
  3,817
  4,067
  4,327
  4,597
  4,879
Variable operating expenses, $m
  139
  173
  214
  260
  312
  371
  435
  505
  581
  663
  743
  836
  934
  1,037
  1,146
  1,259
  1,378
  1,502
  1,631
  1,765
  1,905
  2,050
  2,201
  2,357
  2,520
  2,689
  2,865
  3,048
  3,239
  3,437
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
Total operating expenses, $m
  156
  191
  232
  279
  331
  390
  455
  525
  602
  684
  765
  858
  957
  1,060
  1,170
  1,283
  1,403
  1,527
  1,657
  1,791
  1,932
  2,077
  2,229
  2,386
  2,549
  2,719
  2,896
  3,079
  3,271
  3,470
Operating income, $m
  30
  44
  61
  80
  101
  125
  152
  181
  212
  246
  290
  328
  369
  412
  457
  504
  553
  605
  658
  714
  772
  832
  895
  960
  1,028
  1,098
  1,171
  1,247
  1,326
  1,409
EBITDA, $m
  53
  71
  93
  117
  145
  176
  210
  247
  287
  331
  377
  427
  479
  534
  592
  652
  716
  782
  850
  922
  996
  1,074
  1,154
  1,238
  1,324
  1,415
  1,509
  1,606
  1,708
  1,814
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  7
  14
  22
  32
  43
  55
  68
  83
  99
  115
  134
  153
  173
  195
  217
  241
  265
  291
  317
  345
  374
  404
  435
  468
  501
  537
  573
  611
  650
Earnings before tax, $m
  29
  37
  47
  57
  69
  82
  97
  113
  130
  148
  174
  195
  216
  239
  262
  287
  313
  340
  368
  397
  427
  458
  491
  525
  560
  596
  635
  674
  716
  759
Tax expense, $m
  8
  10
  13
  15
  19
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  47
  53
  58
  64
  71
  78
  84
  92
  99
  107
  115
  124
  132
  142
  151
  161
  171
  182
  193
  205
Net income, $m
  21
  27
  34
  42
  51
  60
  71
  82
  95
  108
  127
  142
  158
  174
  192
  210
  228
  248
  268
  290
  312
  334
  358
  383
  409
  435
  463
  492
  522
  554

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  217
  275
  342
  418
  505
  601
  708
  824
  950
  1,085
  1,230
  1,384
  1,547
  1,718
  1,898
  2,086
  2,283
  2,488
  2,701
  2,924
  3,155
  3,395
  3,645
  3,904
  4,174
  4,454
  4,745
  5,049
  5,364
  5,693
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  217
  275
  342
  418
  505
  601
  708
  824
  950
  1,085
  1,230
  1,384
  1,547
  1,718
  1,898
  2,086
  2,283
  2,488
  2,701
  2,924
  3,155
  3,395
  3,645
  3,904
  4,174
  4,454
  4,745
  5,049
  5,364
  5,693
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.857
  0.855
  0.857
  0.856
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.856
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
  0.857
Average production assets, $m
  77
  98
  122
  149
  180
  214
  252
  293
  338
  386
  438
  492
  550
  611
  675
  742
  812
  885
  961
  1,040
  1,122
  1,207
  1,296
  1,388
  1,484
  1,584
  1,688
  1,796
  1,908
  2,025
Working capital, $m
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
Total debt, $m
  13
  27
  43
  61
  82
  105
  130
  158
  188
  221
  255
  292
  331
  372
  415
  460
  507
  556
  607
  660
  715
  773
  832
  894
  959
  1,026
  1,096
  1,168
  1,243
  1,322
Total liabilities, $m
  52
  66
  82
  100
  121
  144
  169
  197
  227
  259
  294
  331
  370
  411
  454
  499
  546
  595
  646
  699
  754
  811
  871
  933
  998
  1,064
  1,134
  1,207
  1,282
  1,361
Total equity, $m
  165
  209
  260
  318
  384
  458
  539
  627
  723
  826
  936
  1,053
  1,177
  1,307
  1,444
  1,587
  1,737
  1,893
  2,056
  2,225
  2,401
  2,584
  2,774
  2,971
  3,176
  3,389
  3,611
  3,842
  4,082
  4,332
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  217
  275
  342
  418
  505
  602
  708
  824
  950
  1,085
  1,230
  1,384
  1,547
  1,718
  1,898
  2,086
  2,283
  2,488
  2,702
  2,924
  3,155
  3,395
  3,645
  3,904
  4,174
  4,453
  4,745
  5,049
  5,364
  5,693
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.080
  0.130
  0.170
  0.190
  0.210
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  21
  27
  34
  42
  51
  60
  71
  82
  95
  108
  127
  142
  158
  174
  192
  210
  228
  248
  268
  290
  312
  334
  358
  383
  409
  435
  463
  492
  522
  554
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  27
  32
  37
  43
  50
  58
  66
  75
  85
  88
  98
  110
  122
  135
  148
  162
  177
  192
  208
  224
  241
  259
  278
  297
  317
  338
  359
  382
  405
Funds from operations, $m
  44
  54
  66
  79
  94
  111
  129
  148
  170
  193
  215
  241
  268
  297
  327
  358
  391
  425
  460
  497
  536
  576
  617
  661
  706
  752
  801
  851
  904
  959
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  44
  54
  65
  79
  93
  110
  128
  147
  169
  191
  214
  239
  266
  295
  325
  356
  389
  423
  459
  496
  534
  574
  615
  658
  703
  750
  798
  849
  901
  956
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -15
  -20
  -24
  -30
  -36
  -43
  -50
  -59
  -68
  -77
  -88
  -98
  -110
  -122
  -135
  -148
  -162
  -177
  -192
  -208
  -224
  -241
  -259
  -278
  -297
  -317
  -338
  -359
  -382
New CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -117
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -29
  -35
  -44
  -51
  -61
  -70
  -81
  -91
  -104
  -116
  -128
  -143
  -156
  -171
  -186
  -202
  -218
  -235
  -253
  -271
  -290
  -309
  -330
  -351
  -374
  -397
  -421
  -446
  -471
  -499
Free cash flow, $m
  15
  18
  22
  27
  33
  39
  47
  56
  65
  76
  85
  97
  110
  124
  139
  154
  171
  188
  206
  224
  244
  264
  285
  307
  330
  353
  378
  403
  430
  457
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  75
  79
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  16
  17
  17
  16
  15
  13
  10
  6
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  28
  31
  33
  34
  36
  36
  35
  34
  31
  32
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  75
  79
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  42
  48
  55
  62
  69
  76
  83
  90
  97
  108
  120
  134
  149
  165
  182
  199
  218
  237
  257
  277
  299
  321
  345
  369
  394
  420
  447
  476
  505
  536
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -37
  -44
  -51
  -58
  -66
  -73
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -197
  -205
  -213
  -222
  -231
  -240
  -250
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  5
  9
  17
  25
  35
  45
  56
  68
  81
  94
  108
  123
  139
  155
  171
  189
  207
  226
  245
  265
  286
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  3
  4
  7
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  15
  14
  13
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  93.9
  89.3
  85.8
  83.1
  81.0
  79.6
  78.7
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2
  78.2

MiX Telematics Limited is a South Africa-based provider of fleet and mobile asset management solutions delivered as Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) to customers. The Company's operating segments include Africa, Europe, Americas, Middle East and Australasia, Brazil and Central Services Organization. The Company's products and services provide enterprise fleets, small fleets and consumers with solutions for safety, risk management and security. The Company's solutions include MiX Fleet Manager, which consists of an on-board computer, an online tracking and information portal, as well as access to fleet and driver reports and analytics; MiX SafeDrive provides In-Vehicle Monitoring Systems (IVMS) that monitor driver performance, identify unsafe behaviors and provide audible alerts; Matrix is focused on personal safety and consumer telematics through vehicle tracking-and-recovery products and services, and Beam-e, which is a wireless device that fits into vehicles, motorbikes or caravan.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MiX Telematics ADR (MIXT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 1118.1
Price to Sales 86.7
Price to Book 92.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 419.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 1006.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 28
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Total Capital 7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Return On Equity 7.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 68.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.4%
EBITDA Margin 18.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Operating Margin 8.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Net Profit Margin 7.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Effective Tax Rate 18.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.9%
Payout Ratio 44.4%

MIXT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MIXT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $144.391399663 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MiX Telematics ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of MiX Telematics ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MIXT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 28.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MIXT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MiX Telematics ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MiX Telematics ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MIXT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $17 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MIXT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 52.3% for MiX Telematics ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MiX Telematics ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MIXT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MIXT are equal to 41.5%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MiX Telematics ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MIXT is equal to 1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $127.923355818 million for MiX Telematics ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.894 million for MiX Telematics ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MiX Telematics ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
TRMB Trimble 35.74 48.14  hold
NOK Nokia ADR 5.76 142.04  str.buy
PNTR Pointer Teloca 12.00 46.86  str.buy

COMPANY NEWS

▶ MiX Telematics Surpasses 700,000 Subscribers   [Oct-10-18 08:09AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Major customer win for MiX Telematics in North America   [Oct-03-18 02:27PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ MiX Telematics to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Aug-03-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ MiX Telematics Introduces MiX Integrate   [Jun-05-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ MiX Telematics to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Jul-26-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Tech Slide Makes These 5 Value Stocks Must-Buys   [Jun-13-17 02:14PM  Zacks]
▶ 5 Breakout Stocks Offering Stupendous Returns   [Jun-05-17 08:56AM  Zacks]
▶ 5 of the Best Stocks Under $10 for 2017   [Mar-02-17 01:42PM  Zacks]
▶ MiX Telematics Appoints Interim Chief Financial Officer   [Feb-02-17 06:05AM  Business Wire]
▶ How Limelight Networks, Inc. (LLNW) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-12-16 08:19PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ MiX Telematics Announces Changes to the Board of Directors   [Oct-03-16 09:00AM  Business Wire]

CONTACT US       ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2018. All rigths reserved.