Intrinsic value of MarketAxess Holdings - MKTX

Previous Close

$192.39

  Intrinsic Value

$58.88

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-69%

  Value-price divergence*

-80%

Previous close

$192.39

 
Intrinsic value

$58.88

 
Up/down potential

-69%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-80%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as MKTX.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MKTX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  22.11
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  370
  377
  386
  396
  407
  419
  433
  448
  464
  481
  499
  519
  540
  563
  586
  612
  639
  667
  697
  729
  762
  798
  835
  874
  915
  959
  1,005
  1,053
  1,104
  1,157
  1,214
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  129
  132
  135
  139
  143
  148
  152
  158
  163
  169
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
  313
  328
  344
  361
  378
  397
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  53
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  90
  92
  94
  96
  99
  101
  104
  106
  109
Total operating expenses, $m
  178
  182
  187
  191
  196
  202
  208
  214
  221
  228
  236
  238
  247
  256
  265
  275
  286
  297
  309
  321
  334
  348
  363
  378
  393
  409
  427
  445
  465
  484
  506
Operating income, $m
  192
  195
  199
  205
  211
  218
  225
  234
  243
  253
  264
  281
  294
  307
  321
  337
  353
  370
  388
  407
  428
  450
  472
  497
  522
  549
  578
  608
  639
  673
  708
EBITDA, $m
  210
  208
  212
  218
  224
  231
  239
  248
  257
  267
  279
  291
  303
  317
  332
  348
  364
  382
  401
  421
  442
  464
  487
  512
  539
  566
  596
  627
  659
  694
  730
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Earnings before tax, $m
  192
  195
  199
  205
  211
  217
  225
  233
  242
  252
  263
  281
  293
  306
  320
  335
  351
  368
  386
  406
  426
  447
  470
  494
  519
  546
  574
  604
  636
  669
  704
Tax expense, $m
  66
  53
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  76
  79
  83
  86
  91
  95
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  190
Net income, $m
  126
  142
  145
  149
  154
  159
  164
  170
  177
  184
  192
  205
  214
  223
  234
  245
  256
  269
  282
  296
  311
  327
  343
  361
  379
  399
  419
  441
  464
  488
  514

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  168
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  528
  367
  376
  385
  396
  408
  421
  436
  451
  468
  486
  505
  525
  547
  571
  595
  621
  649
  678
  709
  741
  776
  812
  850
  890
  933
  978
  1,024
  1,074
  1,126
  1,181
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  360
  367
  376
  385
  396
  408
  421
  436
  451
  468
  486
  505
  525
  547
  571
  595
  621
  649
  678
  709
  741
  776
  812
  850
  890
  933
  978
  1,024
  1,074
  1,126
  1,181
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.028
  1.027
  1.027
  1.029
  1.028
  1.027
  1.029
  1.028
  1.029
  1.028
  1.027
  1.028
  1.029
  1.029
  1.026
  1.029
  1.029
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
  1.028
Average production assets, $m
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
Working capital, $m
  0
  -171
  -175
  -180
  -185
  -190
  -197
  -203
  -211
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -255
  -266
  -278
  -290
  -303
  -316
  -331
  -346
  -362
  -379
  -397
  -416
  -435
  -456
  -478
  -501
  -525
  -551
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  82
  89
  96
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
Total liabilities, $m
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
Total equity, $m
  468
  306
  313
  321
  330
  340
  351
  363
  376
  390
  405
  421
  438
  456
  475
  496
  517
  540
  565
  590
  618
  646
  676
  708
  742
  777
  814
  853
  895
  938
  983
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  528
  367
  376
  385
  396
  408
  421
  436
  451
  468
  486
  505
  526
  547
  570
  595
  621
  648
  678
  708
  742
  776
  812
  850
  891
  933
  977
  1,024
  1,074
  1,126
  1,180
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833
  0.833

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  126
  142
  145
  149
  154
  159
  164
  170
  177
  184
  192
  205
  214
  223
  234
  245
  256
  269
  282
  296
  311
  327
  343
  361
  379
  399
  419
  441
  464
  488
  514
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Funds from operations, $m
  3
  155
  158
  162
  167
  172
  178
  184
  191
  199
  207
  214
  223
  234
  244
  256
  268
  281
  295
  309
  325
  341
  358
  376
  396
  416
  437
  460
  484
  509
  535
Change in working capital, $m
  -77
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
Cash from operations, $m
  80
  158
  162
  167
  172
  178
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  294
  308
  324
  340
  357
  375
  394
  414
  436
  458
  482
  507
  533
  561
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Free cash flow, $m
  27
  151
  155
  159
  164
  169
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  212
  222
  232
  243
  254
  267
  280
  293
  308
  323
  340
  357
  375
  395
  415
  437
  459
  483
  508
  535
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -27
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -18
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  152
  156
  161
  166
  171
  178
  184
  192
  199
  208
  215
  225
  236
  247
  258
  271
  284
  298
  313
  329
  346
  363
  382
  401
  422
  444
  467
  491
  517
  544
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -77
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  168
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  314
  149
  153
  157
  161
  167
  172
  179
  186
  193
  199
  208
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  274
  287
  302
  317
  333
  350
  368
  387
  407
  428
  450
  474
  498
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  301
  136
  133
  129
  125
  121
  116
  112
  107
  101
  95
  89
  83
  76
  70
  63
  57
  50
  44
  38
  33
  28
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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MarketAxess Holdings Inc. operates an electronic trading platform that enables fixed-income market participants to trade corporate bonds and other types of fixed-income instruments using its trading technology. Institutional investor and broker-dealer firms are users of trading platform, accessing global liquidity in the United States corporate bonds, emerging markets and high-yield bonds, European bonds, the United States agency bonds, municipal bonds, credit default swaps and other fixed-income securities. Through Open Trading protocols, it executes trades in certain bonds between and among institutional investor and broker-dealer clients in a trading environment on a matched principal basis. It offers trading-related products and services, including market data to assist clients with trading decisions; connectivity solutions that facilitate straight-through processing; technology services to optimize trading environments, and execution services for exchange-traded fund managers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 57.3
Price to Sales 19.5
Price to Book 15.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 90.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 118.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 26.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 26.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Return On Total Capital 29.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.4%
Return On Equity 29.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.4%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 90.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 89.6%
EBITDA Margin 56.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.5%
Operating Margin 51.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 51.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.7%
Net Profit Margin 34.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Effective Tax Rate 34.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.5%
Payout Ratio 30.2%

MKTX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MKTX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $370 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MarketAxess Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of MarketAxess Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MKTX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MKTX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MarketAxess Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MarketAxess Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MKTX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 34.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $52 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MKTX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for MarketAxess Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MarketAxess Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MKTX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MKTX are equal to 9.5%.

Life of production assets of 5.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MarketAxess Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MKTX is equal to -45.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $468 million for MarketAxess Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.513 million for MarketAxess Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MarketAxess Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Trax MiFID II ARM Approved by Financial Conduct Authority   [Sep-29-17 07:55AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ In Your 40s? You Might Want to Buy This Stock   [Sep-10-17 08:05AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Trax MiFID II APA Approved by Financial Conduct Authority   [Aug-24-17 10:28AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Amsterdam shines as financial groups seek EU access   [Aug-05-17 07:06AM  Financial Times]
▶ [$$] MarketAxess defends its corporate bond trading status   [Jul-26-17 06:33PM  Financial Times]
▶ MarketAxess posts 2Q profit   [04:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] MarketAxess chooses Amsterdam as EU base after Brexit   [Jul-23-17 08:19AM  Financial Times]
▶ Winning Mutual Fund Focuses On Leading Stocks Like Autohome, MarketAxess   [Jul-07-17 02:43PM  Investor's Business Daily]
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▶ 3 Stocks at 52-Week Highs Still Worth Buying   [May-25-17 10:15AM  Motley Fool]
▶ MarketAxess posts 1Q profit   [Apr-26-17 07:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ Baron Asset Fund Comments on MarketAxess Holdings   [Apr-13-17 06:36PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ 3 Stocks We're Never Selling   [Apr-10-17 03:38PM  Motley Fool]
▶ MOVES-SocGen, eVestment, Marketaxess   [Feb-27-17 04:25PM  Reuters]
Financial statements of MKTX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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