Intrinsic value of Mueller Industries - MLI

Previous Close

$29.51

  Intrinsic Value

$19.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-34%

Previous close

$29.51

 
Intrinsic value

$19.38

 
Up/down potential

-34%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MLI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  2,497
  2,739
  2,991
  3,254
  3,528
  3,813
  4,109
  4,416
  4,736
  5,068
  5,413
  5,772
  6,146
  6,534
  6,939
  7,360
  7,799
  8,256
  8,734
  9,232
  9,752
  10,295
  10,862
  11,455
  12,076
  12,724
  13,403
  14,114
  14,858
  15,637
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,311
  2,533
  2,764
  3,006
  3,257
  3,519
  3,791
  4,073
  4,367
  4,672
  4,972
  5,301
  5,644
  6,001
  6,373
  6,759
  7,162
  7,583
  8,021
  8,478
  8,956
  9,455
  9,976
  10,521
  11,090
  11,686
  12,310
  12,962
  13,646
  14,362
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,311
  2,533
  2,764
  3,006
  3,257
  3,519
  3,791
  4,073
  4,367
  4,672
  4,972
  5,301
  5,644
  6,001
  6,373
  6,759
  7,162
  7,583
  8,021
  8,478
  8,956
  9,455
  9,976
  10,521
  11,090
  11,686
  12,310
  12,962
  13,646
  14,362
Operating income, $m
  187
  206
  227
  248
  271
  294
  318
  343
  369
  396
  442
  471
  501
  533
  566
  600
  636
  674
  713
  753
  796
  840
  886
  935
  985
  1,038
  1,094
  1,152
  1,212
  1,276
EBITDA, $m
  255
  280
  306
  333
  361
  390
  420
  451
  484
  518
  553
  590
  628
  668
  709
  752
  797
  844
  892
  943
  997
  1,052
  1,110
  1,171
  1,234
  1,300
  1,370
  1,442
  1,518
  1,598
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  26
  31
  35
  40
  46
  51
  57
  62
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  103
  110
  118
  127
  135
  144
  154
  164
  174
  185
  196
  208
  220
  233
  246
  260
  275
Earnings before tax, $m
  160
  176
  191
  208
  225
  243
  261
  281
  301
  321
  360
  383
  406
  430
  456
  482
  510
  538
  568
  599
  632
  666
  702
  739
  778
  818
  861
  906
  952
  1,001
Tax expense, $m
  43
  47
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  97
  103
  110
  116
  123
  130
  138
  145
  153
  162
  171
  180
  189
  199
  210
  221
  232
  245
  257
  270
Net income, $m
  117
  128
  140
  152
  164
  177
  191
  205
  219
  235
  263
  279
  296
  314
  333
  352
  372
  393
  415
  438
  461
  486
  512
  539
  568
  597
  629
  661
  695
  731

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,455
  1,596
  1,743
  1,896
  2,056
  2,222
  2,394
  2,574
  2,760
  2,953
  3,155
  3,364
  3,581
  3,808
  4,043
  4,289
  4,545
  4,811
  5,090
  5,380
  5,683
  5,999
  6,330
  6,676
  7,037
  7,415
  7,811
  8,225
  8,659
  9,113
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,455
  1,596
  1,743
  1,896
  2,056
  2,222
  2,394
  2,574
  2,760
  2,953
  3,155
  3,364
  3,581
  3,808
  4,043
  4,289
  4,545
  4,811
  5,090
  5,380
  5,683
  5,999
  6,330
  6,676
  7,037
  7,415
  7,811
  8,225
  8,659
  9,113
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
  1.716
Average production assets, $m
  514
  564
  616
  670
  727
  785
  846
  910
  976
  1,044
  1,115
  1,189
  1,266
  1,346
  1,429
  1,516
  1,607
  1,701
  1,799
  1,902
  2,009
  2,121
  2,238
  2,360
  2,488
  2,621
  2,761
  2,907
  3,061
  3,221
Working capital, $m
  247
  271
  296
  322
  349
  377
  407
  437
  469
  502
  536
  571
  608
  647
  687
  729
  772
  817
  865
  914
  965
  1,019
  1,075
  1,134
  1,195
  1,260
  1,327
  1,397
  1,471
  1,548
Total debt, $m
  547
  633
  721
  814
  911
  1,011
  1,115
  1,224
  1,337
  1,454
  1,575
  1,702
  1,834
  1,971
  2,113
  2,262
  2,416
  2,578
  2,746
  2,922
  3,105
  3,296
  3,496
  3,706
  3,924
  4,153
  4,392
  4,643
  4,905
  5,180
Total liabilities, $m
  880
  966
  1,055
  1,147
  1,244
  1,344
  1,449
  1,557
  1,670
  1,787
  1,909
  2,035
  2,167
  2,304
  2,446
  2,595
  2,750
  2,911
  3,079
  3,255
  3,438
  3,630
  3,830
  4,039
  4,257
  4,486
  4,726
  4,976
  5,238
  5,513
Total equity, $m
  575
  630
  689
  749
  812
  878
  946
  1,017
  1,090
  1,167
  1,246
  1,329
  1,415
  1,504
  1,597
  1,694
  1,795
  1,900
  2,010
  2,125
  2,245
  2,370
  2,500
  2,637
  2,780
  2,929
  3,085
  3,249
  3,420
  3,600
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,455
  1,596
  1,744
  1,896
  2,056
  2,222
  2,395
  2,574
  2,760
  2,954
  3,155
  3,364
  3,582
  3,808
  4,043
  4,289
  4,545
  4,811
  5,089
  5,380
  5,683
  6,000
  6,330
  6,676
  7,037
  7,415
  7,811
  8,225
  8,658
  9,113
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.950
  1.000
  1.050
  1.090
  1.120
  1.150
  1.180
  1.200
  1.230
  1.250
  1.260
  1.280
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
  1.340
  1.350
  1.360
  1.370
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.410
  1.420
  1.420
  1.430
  1.430
  1.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  117
  128
  140
  152
  164
  177
  191
  205
  219
  235
  263
  279
  296
  314
  333
  352
  372
  393
  415
  438
  461
  486
  512
  539
  568
  597
  629
  661
  695
  731
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  112
  119
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  201
  212
  224
  236
  249
  262
  276
  291
  306
  322
Funds from operations, $m
  186
  202
  219
  236
  254
  273
  293
  313
  334
  356
  375
  398
  423
  449
  476
  504
  533
  563
  595
  628
  662
  698
  736
  775
  817
  860
  905
  952
  1,001
  1,053
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
Cash from operations, $m
  163
  178
  194
  210
  227
  245
  263
  283
  303
  323
  340
  363
  386
  410
  436
  462
  489
  518
  547
  578
  611
  645
  680
  717
  755
  795
  837
  881
  928
  976
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -98
  -104
  -112
  -119
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -180
  -190
  -201
  -212
  -224
  -236
  -249
  -262
  -276
  -291
  -306
New CAPEX, $m
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -116
  -123
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -255
  -268
  -283
  -297
  -313
  -329
  -346
  -364
  -383
  -402
  -422
  -444
  -467
Free cash flow, $m
  68
  77
  85
  94
  104
  114
  124
  135
  146
  157
  165
  177
  190
  204
  218
  232
  247
  263
  279
  296
  314
  332
  351
  371
  391
  413
  435
  459
  484
  509
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  176
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  239
  251
  262
  275
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  176
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  239
  251
  262
  275
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  150
  162
  174
  187
  200
  214
  228
  243
  258
  275
  287
  304
  322
  341
  360
  381
  402
  424
  447
  472
  497
  523
  551
  580
  610
  642
  675
  710
  746
  784
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -171
  -179
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
Cash available for distribution, $m
  97
  106
  116
  126
  137
  148
  160
  172
  185
  198
  207
  221
  236
  251
  267
  284
  301
  319
  337
  357
  377
  398
  420
  443
  467
  492
  519
  546
  575
  605
Discount rate, %
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.85
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.19
  13.85
  14.55
  15.27
  16.04
  16.84
  17.68
  18.57
  19.49
  20.47
  21.49
  22.57
  23.69
  24.88
  26.12
  27.43
  28.80
  30.24
  31.75
  33.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  90
  90
  90
  88
  86
  82
  78
  73
  67
  61
  53
  47
  40
  34
  29
  24
  19
  15
  11
  9
  6
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Mueller Industries, Inc. is a manufacturer of copper, brass, aluminum and plastic products. The Company operates through three segments: Piping Systems, Industrial Metals and Climate. The Company's products include copper tube and fittings; line sets; brass and copper alloy rod, bar, and shapes; aluminum and brass forgings; aluminum impact extrusions; plastic fittings and valves; refrigeration valves and fittings; fabricated tubular products, and steel nipples. The Company also resells imported brass and plastic plumbing valves, malleable iron fittings, faucets, and plumbing specialty products. The Company's operations are located throughout the United States and in Canada, Mexico, Great Britain, South Korea, and China. The Company markets its products to the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC), plumbing, refrigeration, hardware, and other industries.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mueller Industries (MLI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.9
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 31%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 25
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 23.7%
Total Debt to Equity 25.3%
Interest Coverage 22
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Total Capital 9.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Equity 11.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
EBITDA Margin 9.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Operating Margin 7.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Net Profit Margin 4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Effective Tax Rate 32.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.2%
Payout Ratio 21%

MLI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MLI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2266 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mueller Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Mueller Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MLI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.1%, whose default value for MLI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mueller Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mueller Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MLI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MLI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Mueller Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mueller Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MLI stock is equal to 0.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MLI are equal to 20.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mueller Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MLI is equal to 9.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $522 million for Mueller Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 57 million for Mueller Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mueller Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Mueller Industries, Inc. Acquires ATCO Rubber Products   [Jul-02-18 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Why Mueller Industries Inc (NYSE:MLI) Could Be A Buy   [Jun-24-18 09:50AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Mueller Industries: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-24-18 09:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mueller's Canadian acquisition enhances its future in plastics   [Apr-03-18 02:40PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Company Profile for Mueller Industries, Inc.   [Feb-09-18 12:36PM  Business Wire]
▶ Mueller Industries posts 4Q profit   [Feb-06-18 07:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mueller Industries posts 3Q profit   [Oct-25-17 05:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ Final site plan approved for new Fortune 1000 HQ in Collierville   [Aug-23-17 11:33AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Mueller Industries posts 2Q profit   [Jul-25-17 04:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Memphis public company makes acquisitions in Canada   [Jun-06-17 01:25PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Here Are Mario Gabellis Top Infrastructure Bets   [May-26-17 07:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ Fortune 1000 company set to relocate HQ from Memphis   [Apr-26-17 06:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Mueller Industries posts 1Q profit   [Apr-25-17 09:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mueller Industries posts 4Q profit   [08:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Mueller Industries, Inc. Announces New Capital Investment   [Dec-02-16 07:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Selling Office Depot Inc (ODP)   [Nov-29-16 04:05AM  at Insider Monkey]
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