Intrinsic value of Mellanox Technologies - MLNX

Previous Close

$93.31

  Intrinsic Value

$1.71

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$93.31

 
Intrinsic value

$1.71

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MLNX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  26.70
  24.53
  22.58
  20.82
  19.24
  17.81
  16.53
  15.38
  14.34
  13.41
  12.57
  11.81
  11.13
  10.52
  9.96
  9.47
  9.02
  8.62
  8.26
  7.93
  7.64
  7.37
  7.14
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.14
  6.02
Revenue, $m
  1,095
  1,363
  1,671
  2,019
  2,407
  2,836
  3,305
  3,813
  4,360
  4,944
  5,565
  6,223
  6,915
  7,642
  8,404
  9,199
  10,029
  10,894
  11,793
  12,728
  13,701
  14,711
  15,761
  16,852
  17,986
  19,166
  20,393
  21,670
  23,000
  24,385
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,036
  1,273
  1,545
  1,852
  2,195
  2,574
  2,988
  3,436
  3,919
  4,435
  4,914
  5,494
  6,105
  6,747
  7,420
  8,122
  8,855
  9,618
  10,412
  11,238
  12,096
  12,988
  13,915
  14,879
  15,880
  16,922
  18,005
  19,132
  20,306
  21,529
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,036
  1,273
  1,545
  1,852
  2,195
  2,574
  2,988
  3,436
  3,919
  4,435
  4,914
  5,494
  6,105
  6,747
  7,420
  8,122
  8,855
  9,618
  10,412
  11,238
  12,096
  12,988
  13,915
  14,879
  15,880
  16,922
  18,005
  19,132
  20,306
  21,529
Operating income, $m
  58
  90
  126
  166
  212
  262
  317
  376
  440
  509
  652
  729
  810
  895
  984
  1,077
  1,174
  1,276
  1,381
  1,491
  1,604
  1,723
  1,846
  1,973
  2,106
  2,244
  2,388
  2,538
  2,693
  2,855
EBITDA, $m
  203
  253
  310
  374
  446
  525
  612
  706
  808
  916
  1,031
  1,153
  1,281
  1,416
  1,557
  1,704
  1,858
  2,018
  2,185
  2,358
  2,538
  2,725
  2,920
  3,122
  3,332
  3,550
  3,778
  4,014
  4,261
  4,517
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  4
  9
  15
  21
  29
  37
  46
  56
  67
  79
  92
  105
  119
  134
  150
  166
  183
  201
  220
  239
  259
  280
  302
  325
  348
  373
  398
  424
  452
  481
Earnings before tax, $m
  54
  81
  111
  145
  183
  225
  271
  320
  373
  430
  560
  624
  690
  761
  834
  911
  991
  1,074
  1,161
  1,251
  1,345
  1,442
  1,544
  1,649
  1,758
  1,872
  1,990
  2,113
  2,241
  2,375
Tax expense, $m
  15
  22
  30
  39
  49
  61
  73
  86
  101
  116
  151
  168
  186
  205
  225
  246
  268
  290
  313
  338
  363
  389
  417
  445
  475
  505
  537
  571
  605
  641
Net income, $m
  40
  59
  81
  106
  134
  164
  197
  234
  272
  314
  409
  455
  504
  555
  609
  665
  723
  784
  848
  913
  982
  1,053
  1,127
  1,204
  1,283
  1,366
  1,453
  1,543
  1,636
  1,734

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,679
  2,091
  2,563
  3,096
  3,692
  4,349
  5,068
  5,848
  6,686
  7,583
  8,536
  9,544
  10,606
  11,721
  12,889
  14,109
  15,382
  16,708
  18,088
  19,522
  21,013
  22,563
  24,173
  25,847
  27,587
  29,396
  31,278
  33,236
  35,275
  37,400
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,679
  2,091
  2,563
  3,096
  3,692
  4,349
  5,068
  5,848
  6,686
  7,583
  8,536
  9,544
  10,606
  11,721
  12,889
  14,109
  15,382
  16,708
  18,088
  19,522
  21,013
  22,563
  24,173
  25,847
  27,587
  29,396
  31,278
  33,236
  35,275
  37,400
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
  0.652
Average production assets, $m
  604
  752
  922
  1,114
  1,329
  1,565
  1,824
  2,105
  2,406
  2,729
  3,072
  3,435
  3,817
  4,218
  4,639
  5,078
  5,536
  6,013
  6,510
  7,026
  7,563
  8,120
  8,700
  9,302
  9,929
  10,580
  11,257
  11,962
  12,696
  13,460
Working capital, $m
  46
  57
  70
  85
  101
  119
  139
  160
  183
  208
  234
  261
  290
  321
  353
  386
  421
  458
  495
  535
  575
  618
  662
  708
  755
  805
  857
  910
  966
  1,024
Total debt, $m
  165
  272
  395
  533
  688
  859
  1,046
  1,249
  1,467
  1,700
  1,948
  2,210
  2,486
  2,776
  3,079
  3,397
  3,728
  4,072
  4,431
  4,804
  5,192
  5,595
  6,013
  6,448
  6,901
  7,371
  7,860
  8,370
  8,900
  9,452
Total liabilities, $m
  436
  544
  666
  805
  960
  1,131
  1,318
  1,520
  1,738
  1,972
  2,219
  2,481
  2,758
  3,048
  3,351
  3,668
  3,999
  4,344
  4,703
  5,076
  5,463
  5,866
  6,285
  6,720
  7,173
  7,643
  8,132
  8,641
  9,172
  9,724
Total equity, $m
  1,242
  1,547
  1,896
  2,291
  2,732
  3,218
  3,751
  4,327
  4,948
  5,611
  6,316
  7,062
  7,848
  8,674
  9,538
  10,441
  11,383
  12,364
  13,385
  14,446
  15,550
  16,697
  17,888
  19,127
  20,414
  21,753
  23,145
  24,595
  26,104
  27,676
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,678
  2,091
  2,562
  3,096
  3,692
  4,349
  5,069
  5,847
  6,686
  7,583
  8,535
  9,543
  10,606
  11,722
  12,889
  14,109
  15,382
  16,708
  18,088
  19,522
  21,013
  22,563
  24,173
  25,847
  27,587
  29,396
  31,277
  33,236
  35,276
  37,400
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.130
  0.180
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  40
  59
  81
  106
  134
  164
  197
  234
  272
  314
  409
  455
  504
  555
  609
  665
  723
  784
  848
  913
  982
  1,053
  1,127
  1,204
  1,283
  1,366
  1,453
  1,543
  1,636
  1,734
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  145
  163
  184
  208
  234
  263
  295
  330
  367
  407
  379
  424
  471
  521
  573
  627
  683
  742
  804
  867
  934
  1,003
  1,074
  1,148
  1,226
  1,306
  1,390
  1,477
  1,567
  1,662
Funds from operations, $m
  184
  222
  265
  313
  368
  427
  493
  563
  639
  721
  788
  879
  975
  1,076
  1,182
  1,292
  1,407
  1,527
  1,651
  1,781
  1,915
  2,055
  2,201
  2,352
  2,509
  2,672
  2,842
  3,019
  3,204
  3,395
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
Cash from operations, $m
  175
  211
  252
  299
  351
  409
  473
  542
  616
  696
  762
  852
  946
  1,046
  1,150
  1,259
  1,372
  1,490
  1,613
  1,742
  1,875
  2,013
  2,157
  2,306
  2,461
  2,623
  2,791
  2,966
  3,148
  3,337
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -59
  -75
  -93
  -114
  -138
  -164
  -193
  -225
  -260
  -297
  -337
  -379
  -424
  -471
  -521
  -573
  -627
  -683
  -742
  -804
  -867
  -934
  -1,003
  -1,074
  -1,148
  -1,226
  -1,306
  -1,390
  -1,477
  -1,567
New CAPEX, $m
  -127
  -148
  -170
  -192
  -214
  -237
  -259
  -281
  -302
  -323
  -343
  -363
  -382
  -401
  -420
  -439
  -458
  -477
  -497
  -516
  -537
  -558
  -580
  -602
  -626
  -651
  -677
  -705
  -734
  -765
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -186
  -223
  -263
  -306
  -352
  -401
  -452
  -506
  -562
  -620
  -680
  -742
  -806
  -872
  -941
  -1,012
  -1,085
  -1,160
  -1,239
  -1,320
  -1,404
  -1,492
  -1,583
  -1,676
  -1,774
  -1,877
  -1,983
  -2,095
  -2,211
  -2,332
Free cash flow, $m
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -7
  -1
  9
  21
  36
  55
  76
  82
  110
  140
  173
  209
  247
  287
  330
  375
  422
  471
  522
  575
  630
  687
  746
  807
  871
  937
  1,005
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  92
  107
  123
  139
  155
  171
  187
  203
  218
  233
  248
  262
  276
  290
  304
  317
  331
  345
  359
  373
  388
  403
  419
  435
  452
  470
  489
  509
  530
  552
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  222
  246
  268
  289
  307
  322
  335
  343
  348
  350
  296
  291
  282
  270
  255
  238
  218
  197
  173
  148
  122
  94
  65
  35
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  314
  353
  391
  428
  462
  493
  522
  546
  566
  583
  544
  553
  558
  560
  559
  555
  549
  542
  532
  521
  510
  497
  484
  470
  456
  470
  489
  509
  530
  552
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  303
  341
  380
  421
  461
  502
  543
  582
  621
  659
  626
  662
  698
  733
  767
  802
  836
  871
  907
  943
  980
  1,018
  1,058
  1,100
  1,143
  1,216
  1,297
  1,380
  1,467
  1,558
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -262
  -305
  -349
  -395
  -441
  -487
  -532
  -577
  -621
  -663
  -705
  -746
  -786
  -825
  -864
  -903
  -942
  -981
  -1,021
  -1,062
  -1,103
  -1,147
  -1,192
  -1,238
  -1,287
  -1,339
  -1,393
  -1,449
  -1,509
  -1,572
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  77
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  118
  36
  31
  26
  21
  16
  10
  5
  1
  -4
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -144
  -122
  -96
  -69
  -42
  -14
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  113
  33
  27
  21
  16
  11
  7
  3
  0
  -2
  -37
  -36
  -33
  -31
  -28
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -2
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  95.3
  91.4
  88.1
  85.2
  82.8
  80.8
  79.0
  77.4
  76.1
  75.0
  74.1
  73.4
  72.7
  72.2
  71.7
  71.4
  71.0
  70.8
  70.6
  70.4
  70.3
  70.2
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1
  70.1

Mellanox Technologies, Ltd. is a fabless semiconductor company. The Company is an integrated supplier of interconnect products and solutions based on the InfiniBand and Ethernet standards. The Company operates in the development, manufacturing, marketing and sales of interconnect products segment. Its products facilitate data transmission between servers, storage systems, communications infrastructure equipment and other embedded systems. It operates its business globally and offers products to customers at various levels of integration. The products it offers include integrated circuits (ICs), adapter cards, switch systems, multi-core and network processors, cables, modules, software, services and accessories. Together these products form a networking solution, focused on computing, storage and communication applications used in multiple markets, including high-performance computing (HPC), cloud, Web 2.0, storage, financial services, and enterprise data center (EDC).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mellanox Technologies (MLNX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 241
Price to Sales 5.3
Price to Book 4.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 31.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 30.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 4.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 14
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 22.3%
Total Debt to Equity 24.8%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Equity 2.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 64.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68%
EBITDA Margin 14.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Operating Margin 3.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Net Profit Margin 2.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Effective Tax Rate 20.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -101.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

MLNX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MLNX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $863.893 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mellanox Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Mellanox Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MLNX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 26.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MLNX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mellanox Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mellanox Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MLNX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MLNX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Mellanox Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mellanox Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MLNX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MLNX are equal to 55.2%.

Life of production assets of 8.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mellanox Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MLNX is equal to 4.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1057.448 million for Mellanox Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 52.187 million for Mellanox Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mellanox Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Mellanox Technologies Stock Jumped on Friday   [Oct-26-18 05:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ These Two Chip Stocks Buck Market Downtrend As AMD Plummets   [11:56AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Mellanox: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Strong Buy Semiconductor Stocks to Consider Now   [Aug-14-18 07:30AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ 5 Technology Stocks Set to Trump Estimates in Q2 Earnings   [Jul-19-18 11:18AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Mellanox: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-17-18 04:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mellanox Achieves Another Record Quarter   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Bull of the Day: Mellanox (MLNX)   [05:00AM  Zacks]
▶ 3 Strong Buy Semiconductor Stocks to Consider Now   [Jul-12-18 12:40PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Mellanox, Starboard settle on new board members   [Jun-19-18 06:30PM  Reuters]
▶ Mellanox Announces Agreement with Starboard   [04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ 5 Top Liquid Stocks for a Winning Portfolio   [Jun-18-18 11:48AM  InvestorPlace]

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