Intrinsic value of Miller Industries - MLR

Previous Close

$26.94

  Intrinsic Value

$4.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-84%

Previous close

$26.94

 
Intrinsic value

$4.21

 
Up/down potential

-84%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MLR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.50
  14.45
  13.51
  12.65
  11.89
  11.20
  10.58
  10.02
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
Revenue, $m
  710
  813
  923
  1,040
  1,163
  1,294
  1,430
  1,574
  1,724
  1,880
  2,043
  2,212
  2,388
  2,572
  2,762
  2,960
  3,165
  3,379
  3,601
  3,832
  4,073
  4,323
  4,584
  4,856
  5,140
  5,435
  5,744
  6,066
  6,403
  6,755
Variable operating expenses, $m
  672
  769
  872
  983
  1,099
  1,222
  1,352
  1,487
  1,628
  1,776
  1,929
  2,089
  2,255
  2,428
  2,608
  2,794
  2,988
  3,190
  3,400
  3,618
  3,845
  4,082
  4,328
  4,585
  4,852
  5,132
  5,423
  5,727
  6,045
  6,377
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  672
  769
  872
  983
  1,099
  1,222
  1,352
  1,487
  1,628
  1,776
  1,929
  2,089
  2,255
  2,428
  2,608
  2,794
  2,988
  3,190
  3,400
  3,618
  3,845
  4,082
  4,328
  4,585
  4,852
  5,132
  5,423
  5,727
  6,045
  6,377
Operating income, $m
  39
  44
  50
  57
  64
  71
  79
  87
  95
  104
  114
  124
  133
  144
  154
  165
  177
  189
  201
  214
  228
  242
  256
  271
  287
  304
  321
  339
  358
  378
EBITDA, $m
  46
  53
  60
  68
  76
  84
  93
  102
  112
  122
  133
  144
  156
  167
  180
  193
  206
  220
  235
  250
  265
  282
  299
  316
  335
  354
  374
  395
  417
  440
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  6
  10
  14
  18
  23
  28
  33
  38
  44
  50
  56
  63
  69
  76
  83
  91
  99
  107
  115
  124
  133
  143
  153
  163
  174
  185
  196
  209
  221
Earnings before tax, $m
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  108
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  143
  149
  156
Tax expense, $m
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
Net income, $m
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  366
  419
  476
  536
  600
  667
  738
  812
  889
  970
  1,054
  1,141
  1,232
  1,326
  1,424
  1,526
  1,632
  1,743
  1,857
  1,976
  2,101
  2,230
  2,364
  2,504
  2,651
  2,803
  2,962
  3,129
  3,302
  3,484
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  366
  419
  476
  536
  600
  667
  738
  812
  889
  970
  1,054
  1,141
  1,232
  1,326
  1,424
  1,526
  1,632
  1,743
  1,857
  1,976
  2,101
  2,230
  2,364
  2,504
  2,651
  2,803
  2,962
  3,129
  3,302
  3,484
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.940
  1.940
  1.939
  1.940
  1.938
  1.940
  1.938
  1.938
  1.939
  1.938
  1.938
  1.939
  1.938
  1.940
  1.940
  1.940
  1.939
  1.939
  1.939
  1.939
  1.939
  1.939
  1.939
  1.939
  1.939
  1.939
  1.939
  1.939
  1.939
  1.939
Average production assets, $m
  86
  98
  112
  126
  141
  157
  173
  190
  209
  227
  247
  268
  289
  311
  334
  358
  383
  409
  436
  464
  493
  523
  555
  588
  622
  658
  695
  734
  775
  817
Working capital, $m
  120
  137
  156
  176
  197
  219
  242
  266
  291
  318
  345
  374
  404
  435
  467
  500
  535
  571
  609
  648
  688
  731
  775
  821
  869
  919
  971
  1,025
  1,082
  1,142
Total debt, $m
  28
  47
  68
  90
  112
  137
  162
  189
  216
  246
  276
  307
  340
  374
  409
  446
  484
  524
  565
  608
  653
  699
  748
  798
  851
  906
  963
  1,023
  1,085
  1,151
Total liabilities, $m
  132
  151
  171
  193
  216
  240
  266
  292
  320
  349
  379
  411
  443
  477
  513
  550
  588
  627
  669
  712
  756
  803
  851
  902
  954
  1,009
  1,066
  1,126
  1,189
  1,254
Total equity, $m
  234
  268
  305
  343
  384
  427
  472
  519
  569
  621
  674
  730
  788
  849
  912
  977
  1,045
  1,115
  1,189
  1,265
  1,344
  1,427
  1,513
  1,603
  1,696
  1,794
  1,896
  2,002
  2,113
  2,230
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  366
  419
  476
  536
  600
  667
  738
  811
  889
  970
  1,053
  1,141
  1,231
  1,326
  1,425
  1,527
  1,633
  1,742
  1,858
  1,977
  2,100
  2,230
  2,364
  2,505
  2,650
  2,803
  2,962
  3,128
  3,302
  3,484
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.120
  0.180
  0.220
  0.260
  0.290
  0.320
  0.340
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
Funds from operations, $m
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  153
  160
  168
  176
Change in working capital, $m
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
Cash from operations, $m
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
Free cash flow, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  45
  47
  49
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  59
  62
  65
  67
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  73
  76
  79
  83
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.4
  96.9
  95.3
  93.9
  92.5
  91.3
  90.2
  89.2
  88.3
  87.5
  86.8
  86.2
  85.7
  85.3
  84.9
  84.6
  84.3
  84.0
  83.8
  83.6
  83.5
  83.3
  83.2
  83.1
  83.0
  82.9
  82.8
  82.8
  82.7
  82.7

Miller Industries, Inc. is a manufacturer of towing and recovery equipment. The Company manufactures the bodies of wreckers and car carriers, which are installed on truck chassis manufactured by third parties. It has domestic manufacturing operations in Tennessee and Pennsylvania, and foreign manufacturing operations in France and the United Kingdom. The Company purchases truck chassis for resale its customers. The Company also manufactures vehicle transport trailers. As of December 31, 2016, yhe Company's products were sold through independent distributors all 50 states, Canada and Mexico, and other foreign markets including Europe, the Pacific Rim, the Middle East, South America and Africa, and through prime contractors to governmental entities. The Company's products are offered under various brands, including Century, Vulcan, Challenger, Holmes, Champion, Chevron, Eagle, Titan, Jige and Boniface. Its wreckers are used to recover and tow disabled vehicles and other equipment.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Miller Industries (MLR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.3
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -76.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 108.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 65.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 2.7%
Total Debt to Equity 2.7%
Interest Coverage 17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Total Capital 11%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Return On Equity 11.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
EBITDA Margin 6.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Operating Margin 5.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Net Profit Margin 3.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 35.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.3%
Payout Ratio 40%

MLR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MLR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $615.101 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Miller Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Miller Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MLR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MLR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Miller Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Miller Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MLR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MLR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 20.4% for Miller Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Miller Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MLR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MLR are equal to 12.1%.

Life of production assets of 13.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Miller Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MLR is equal to 16.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $203.1 million for Miller Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.384 million for Miller Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Miller Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Miller Industries: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-07-18 06:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Miller Industries Announces Webcast   [Nov-01-18 05:39PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 6 Poorly Performing High-Yield Stocks   [Oct-31-18 04:23PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Chuck Royce Makes Several Changes to Portfolio in August   [Sep-10-18 06:35PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Miller Industries: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-08-18 05:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ Miller Industries Announces Webcast   [Aug-02-18 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Miller Industries: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-10-18 05:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Miller Industries Reports 2018 First Quarter Results   [May-09-18 04:50PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Miller Industries Announces Webcast   [May-08-18 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Miller Industries posts 4Q profit   [Mar-07-18 06:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ Miller Industries Announces Webcast   [Mar-06-18 07:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ CI Can Am Small-Cap Fund Exits 6 Positions in 3rd Quarter   [Dec-05-17 11:37AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Miller Industries posts 3Q profit   [Nov-08-17 07:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ Miller Industries Announces Webcast   [Nov-02-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Miller Industries posts 2Q profit   [Aug-09-17 11:00PM  Associated Press]
▶ Miller Industries Announces Webcast   [Aug-03-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ LD Micro Index Reconstitution as of August 1, 2017   [Aug-01-17 09:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Miller Industries posts 1Q profit   [May-03-17 07:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ Cummins Breaks Out On Heavy-Duty Earnings Growth   [May-02-17 04:47PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Miller Industries Announces Webcast   [Apr-27-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Miller Industries posts 4Q profit   [Mar-15-17 05:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Miller Industries Announces Webcast   [Mar-02-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Miller Industries Announces Webcast   [Nov-03-16 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Miller Industries Announces Webcast   [Jul-28-16 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Miller Industries Announces Webcast   [Apr-28-16 04:20PM  PR Newswire]

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