Intrinsic value of Marcus&Millichap - MMI

Previous Close

$37.00

  Intrinsic Value

$50.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+36%

Previous close

$37.00

 
Intrinsic value

$50.17

 
Up/down potential

+36%

 
Rating

buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as MMI.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MMI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.60
  10.04
  9.54
  9.08
  8.67
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.29
  5.26
Revenue, $m
  796
  876
  959
  1,047
  1,137
  1,232
  1,330
  1,432
  1,538
  1,649
  1,763
  1,882
  2,006
  2,135
  2,269
  2,409
  2,554
  2,706
  2,864
  3,029
  3,201
  3,381
  3,568
  3,764
  3,969
  4,184
  4,408
  4,643
  4,889
  5,146
Variable operating expenses, $m
  677
  745
  816
  891
  968
  1,048
  1,132
  1,219
  1,309
  1,403
  1,501
  1,602
  1,707
  1,817
  1,931
  2,050
  2,174
  2,303
  2,437
  2,578
  2,724
  2,877
  3,037
  3,203
  3,378
  3,560
  3,751
  3,951
  4,160
  4,379
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  677
  745
  816
  891
  968
  1,048
  1,132
  1,219
  1,309
  1,403
  1,501
  1,602
  1,707
  1,817
  1,931
  2,050
  2,174
  2,303
  2,437
  2,578
  2,724
  2,877
  3,037
  3,203
  3,378
  3,560
  3,751
  3,951
  4,160
  4,379
Operating income, $m
  119
  131
  143
  156
  169
  184
  198
  213
  229
  246
  263
  280
  299
  318
  338
  359
  381
  403
  427
  451
  477
  504
  532
  561
  591
  623
  657
  692
  728
  767
EBITDA, $m
  122
  135
  147
  161
  175
  189
  204
  220
  236
  253
  271
  289
  308
  328
  349
  370
  392
  416
  440
  465
  492
  519
  548
  578
  610
  643
  677
  713
  751
  790
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  4
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  82
  88
  94
  101
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
Earnings before tax, $m
  117
  127
  136
  147
  157
  169
  180
  192
  205
  218
  231
  245
  260
  275
  291
  307
  324
  342
  361
  380
  400
  422
  444
  467
  491
  516
  543
  570
  599
  630
Tax expense, $m
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  92
  97
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  139
  147
  154
  162
  170
Net income, $m
  86
  92
  100
  107
  115
  123
  131
  140
  149
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  212
  224
  237
  250
  263
  277
  292
  308
  324
  341
  358
  377
  396
  416
  437
  460

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  274
  301
  330
  360
  391
  423
  457
  492
  529
  567
  606
  647
  690
  734
  780
  828
  878
  930
  985
  1,041
  1,100
  1,162
  1,227
  1,294
  1,365
  1,438
  1,515
  1,596
  1,681
  1,769
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  274
  301
  330
  360
  391
  423
  457
  492
  529
  567
  606
  647
  690
  734
  780
  828
  878
  930
  985
  1,041
  1,100
  1,162
  1,227
  1,294
  1,365
  1,438
  1,515
  1,596
  1,681
  1,769
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.905
  2.910
  2.906
  2.908
  2.908
  2.913
  2.910
  2.911
  2.907
  2.908
  2.909
  2.909
  2.907
  2.909
  2.909
  2.909
  2.909
  2.910
  2.908
  2.910
  2.910
  2.910
  2.908
  2.909
  2.908
  2.910
  2.910
  2.909
  2.908
  2.909
Average production assets, $m
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
Working capital, $m
  -62
  -68
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -167
  -177
  -188
  -199
  -211
  -223
  -236
  -250
  -264
  -278
  -294
  -310
  -326
  -344
  -362
  -381
  -401
Total debt, $m
  24
  40
  57
  74
  92
  111
  131
  151
  172
  194
  217
  241
  266
  291
  318
  346
  375
  405
  437
  470
  504
  540
  578
  617
  658
  701
  745
  792
  841
  893
Total liabilities, $m
  159
  175
  192
  209
  227
  246
  266
  286
  307
  329
  352
  376
  401
  426
  453
  481
  510
  540
  572
  605
  639
  675
  713
  752
  793
  836
  880
  927
  976
  1,028
Total equity, $m
  115
  126
  138
  151
  164
  177
  192
  206
  222
  237
  254
  271
  289
  308
  327
  347
  368
  390
  413
  436
  461
  487
  514
  542
  572
  603
  635
  669
  704
  741
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  274
  301
  330
  360
  391
  423
  458
  492
  529
  566
  606
  647
  690
  734
  780
  828
  878
  930
  985
  1,041
  1,100
  1,162
  1,227
  1,294
  1,365
  1,439
  1,515
  1,596
  1,680
  1,769
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.210
  0.320
  0.410
  0.490
  0.560
  0.630
  0.680
  0.730
  0.780
  0.820
  0.850
  0.890
  0.920
  0.950
  0.970
  1.000
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.080
  1.090
  1.110
  1.120
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  86
  92
  100
  107
  115
  123
  131
  140
  149
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  212
  224
  237
  250
  263
  277
  292
  308
  324
  341
  358
  377
  396
  416
  437
  460
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
Funds from operations, $m
  89
  96
  104
  112
  120
  129
  138
  147
  156
  166
  177
  188
  199
  210
  223
  235
  248
  262
  276
  291
  307
  323
  340
  358
  377
  396
  416
  438
  460
  483
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Cash from operations, $m
  95
  103
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  155
  165
  175
  186
  197
  208
  221
  233
  246
  260
  274
  289
  304
  320
  337
  355
  373
  393
  413
  434
  456
  479
  503
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Free cash flow, $m
  90
  97
  105
  112
  120
  129
  137
  146
  156
  165
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  259
  273
  287
  303
  318
  335
  352
  371
  390
  409
  430
  452
  475
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  106
  113
  121
  130
  138
  148
  157
  167
  177
  187
  198
  210
  222
  234
  247
  260
  274
  289
  304
  320
  337
  354
  373
  392
  412
  432
  454
  477
  501
  526
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  211
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  306
  102
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
  152
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  215
  228
  240
  253
  267
  281
  296
  312
  328
  345
  363
  382
  402
  422
  443
  466
  489
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  293
  93
  95
  96
  97
  97
  96
  95
  93
  90
  86
  82
  78
  72
  67
  61
  55
  49
  43
  38
  32
  27
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Marcus & Millichap, Inc. is a brokerage company specializing in commercial real estate investment sales, financing, research and advisory services. The Company offers three primary services to its clients: commercial real estate investment brokerage, financing, and ancillary services, including other research, advisory and consulting services. It provides its financing services through Marcus & Millichap Capital Corporation, which is a broker of debt financing for commercial properties. Its research, advisory and consulting services are designed to assist clients in forming their investment strategy and making transaction decisions. Its advisory services include opinions of value, operating and financial performance benchmarking analysis, and specific asset buy-sell strategies. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had over 1,700 investment sales and financing professionals in 82 offices in the United States and Canada that provide investment brokerage and financing services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Marcus&Millichap (MMI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.6
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 5.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 28.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 215
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 3.5%
Total Debt to Equity 3.9%
Interest Coverage 108
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 18.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
Return On Total Capital 27.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 39%
Return On Equity 29%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.6%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.5%
EBITDA Margin 15.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.9%
Operating Margin 14.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Net Profit Margin 9.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Effective Tax Rate 39.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

MMI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MMI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $719.7 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Marcus&Millichap. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Marcus&Millichap. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MMI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MMI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Marcus&Millichap, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Marcus&Millichap.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MMI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MMI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 16.3% for Marcus&Millichap.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Marcus&Millichap. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MMI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MMI are equal to 2.3%.

Life of production assets of 3.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Marcus&Millichap operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MMI is equal to -7.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $314.888 million for Marcus&Millichap - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.622 million for Marcus&Millichap is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Marcus&Millichap at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ FBI office building trades for $21 million   [Nov-16-18 05:06PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Marcus & Millichap: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ How grocery stores play a significant role in Phoenix retail real estate   [Oct-09-18 04:57PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Marcus & Millichap Further Expands Presence in Canada   [Oct-08-18 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Canadian Real Estate Investors Shrug Off Nafta Negotiations   [Sep-18-18 03:12PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ Triad apartment community sells for $34.8 million   [Sep-13-18 02:21PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Amid e-commerce uncertainty, some Houston retail investors focus on industrial   [Sep-11-18 03:44PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ When Should You Buy Marcus & Millichap Inc (NYSE:MMI)?   [Aug-21-18 12:19PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Marcus & Millichap: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-07-18 05:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Deals Day: Brinker selling nearly 100 restaurants for more than $300M   [Aug-03-18 06:56AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Three recent San Antonio apartment sales total more than $100M   [Jul-02-18 06:01AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Marcus & Millichap team close on $27M in medical-office deals in Arizona   [Jun-16-18 02:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ This dynamic duo closes on $300M in apartment deals in 24 days   [May-21-18 04:56PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Marcus & Millichap: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-08-18 06:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Fed Flags Gradual Rate Hikes: Top 5 Winners   [May-03-18 09:40AM  Zacks]
▶ Chandler multifamily property sold for $64.8M   [Apr-20-18 03:00AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Deals Day: New York investment firm buys fully-leased Las Colinas retail center   [Apr-06-18 07:10AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ What makes for the perfect real estate agent, broker   [Mar-22-18 01:08PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Motorola Dominates Its Mission-Critical Niche   [Mar-02-18 07:00AM  Morningstar]
▶ IPA Brokers Record-Setting Multifamily Sale in Ventura   [Feb-20-18 01:13PM  Business Wire]
▶ $110 Million Multifamily Asset in Phoenix Sold by IPA   [Jan-29-18 11:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Marcus & Millichap posts 3Q profit   [Nov-07-17 04:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ Core New Haven Mixed-Use Asset Trades for $39.6 Million   [Sep-25-17 01:18PM  Business Wire]
▶ Google Scoops Up HTC's Pixel Team for $1.1 Billion   [Sep-21-17 12:59PM  Motley Fool]

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