Intrinsic value of Martin Midstream Partners - MMLP

Previous Close

$14.75

  Intrinsic Value

$1.95

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

Previous close

$14.75

 
Intrinsic value

$1.95

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MMLP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -20.25
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.80
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
Revenue, $m
  827
  912
  1,001
  1,094
  1,191
  1,292
  1,397
  1,507
  1,620
  1,738
  1,861
  1,988
  2,121
  2,258
  2,402
  2,551
  2,706
  2,868
  3,037
  3,213
  3,397
  3,588
  3,789
  3,998
  4,216
  4,445
  4,684
  4,935
  5,197
  5,471
  5,758
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  849
  932
  1,018
  1,108
  1,202
  1,300
  1,401
  1,507
  1,616
  1,730
  1,847
  1,970
  2,098
  2,231
  2,370
  2,514
  2,664
  2,821
  2,985
  3,155
  3,333
  3,519
  3,714
  3,917
  4,129
  4,351
  4,584
  4,827
  5,082
  5,349
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  755
  849
  932
  1,018
  1,108
  1,202
  1,300
  1,401
  1,507
  1,616
  1,730
  1,847
  1,970
  2,098
  2,231
  2,370
  2,514
  2,664
  2,821
  2,985
  3,155
  3,333
  3,519
  3,714
  3,917
  4,129
  4,351
  4,584
  4,827
  5,082
  5,349
Operating income, $m
  73
  63
  69
  76
  83
  90
  98
  105
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  160
  171
  181
  192
  204
  216
  228
  241
  255
  269
  284
  300
  316
  333
  351
  369
  389
  409
EBITDA, $m
  165
  164
  180
  196
  214
  232
  251
  270
  291
  312
  334
  357
  381
  405
  431
  458
  486
  515
  545
  577
  610
  644
  680
  717
  757
  798
  841
  886
  933
  982
  1,033
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  28
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  96
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  137
  145
  154
  162
  171
  181
  191
  201
  212
Earnings before tax, $m
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
Tax expense, $m
  0
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
Net income, $m
  32
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  45
  48
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,246
  1,374
  1,508
  1,648
  1,794
  1,946
  2,105
  2,269
  2,440
  2,618
  2,802
  2,994
  3,194
  3,401
  3,617
  3,842
  4,076
  4,320
  4,574
  4,839
  5,115
  5,404
  5,706
  6,021
  6,350
  6,694
  7,055
  7,432
  7,826
  8,239
  8,672
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,246
  1,374
  1,508
  1,648
  1,794
  1,946
  2,105
  2,269
  2,440
  2,618
  2,802
  2,994
  3,194
  3,401
  3,617
  3,842
  4,076
  4,320
  4,574
  4,839
  5,115
  5,404
  5,706
  6,021
  6,350
  6,694
  7,055
  7,432
  7,826
  8,239
  8,672
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
Average production assets, $m
  960
  1,058
  1,162
  1,269
  1,382
  1,499
  1,621
  1,748
  1,879
  2,016
  2,158
  2,306
  2,460
  2,620
  2,786
  2,959
  3,139
  3,327
  3,523
  3,727
  3,940
  4,163
  4,395
  4,637
  4,891
  5,156
  5,434
  5,724
  6,028
  6,346
  6,679
Working capital, $m
  76
  84
  92
  101
  110
  119
  129
  139
  149
  160
  171
  183
  195
  208
  221
  235
  249
  264
  279
  296
  312
  330
  349
  368
  388
  409
  431
  454
  478
  503
  530
Total debt, $m
  808
  904
  1,005
  1,110
  1,220
  1,334
  1,452
  1,576
  1,704
  1,837
  1,976
  2,120
  2,269
  2,425
  2,587
  2,755
  2,931
  3,114
  3,304
  3,503
  3,711
  3,927
  4,153
  4,390
  4,637
  4,895
  5,165
  5,448
  5,744
  6,053
  6,378
Total liabilities, $m
  934
  1,030
  1,131
  1,236
  1,346
  1,460
  1,578
  1,702
  1,830
  1,963
  2,102
  2,246
  2,395
  2,551
  2,713
  2,881
  3,057
  3,240
  3,430
  3,629
  3,837
  4,053
  4,279
  4,516
  4,763
  5,021
  5,291
  5,574
  5,870
  6,179
  6,504
Total equity, $m
  312
  343
  377
  412
  449
  487
  526
  567
  610
  654
  701
  749
  798
  850
  904
  960
  1,019
  1,080
  1,143
  1,210
  1,279
  1,351
  1,426
  1,505
  1,588
  1,674
  1,764
  1,858
  1,957
  2,060
  2,168
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,246
  1,373
  1,508
  1,648
  1,795
  1,947
  2,104
  2,269
  2,440
  2,617
  2,803
  2,995
  3,193
  3,401
  3,617
  3,841
  4,076
  4,320
  4,573
  4,839
  5,116
  5,404
  5,705
  6,021
  6,351
  6,695
  7,055
  7,432
  7,827
  8,239
  8,672
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.590
  2.630
  2.670
  2.690
  2.720
  2.740
  2.760
  2.780
  2.790
  2.810
  2.820
  2.830
  2.840
  2.850
  2.860
  2.870
  2.880
  2.880
  2.890
  2.900
  2.900
  2.910
  2.910
  2.920
  2.920
  2.920
  2.930
  2.930
  2.940
  2.940
  2.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  32
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  45
  48
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  92
  101
  110
  120
  131
  142
  153
  165
  177
  190
  203
  216
  230
  245
  260
  277
  293
  311
  329
  348
  368
  389
  411
  433
  457
  482
  508
  535
  563
  593
  624
Funds from operations, $m
  89
  126
  138
  150
  163
  176
  190
  205
  220
  236
  252
  268
  286
  304
  323
  343
  363
  385
  407
  431
  455
  480
  507
  535
  564
  594
  626
  659
  694
  730
  768
Change in working capital, $m
  -22
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Cash from operations, $m
  111
  118
  130
  142
  154
  167
  181
  195
  209
  225
  240
  256
  274
  291
  310
  329
  349
  370
  392
  414
  438
  463
  488
  515
  544
  573
  604
  636
  670
  705
  742
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -90
  -99
  -109
  -119
  -129
  -140
  -151
  -163
  -176
  -188
  -202
  -216
  -230
  -245
  -260
  -277
  -293
  -311
  -329
  -348
  -368
  -389
  -411
  -433
  -457
  -482
  -508
  -535
  -563
  -593
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -213
  -222
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -265
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -318
  -333
Cash from investing activities, $m
  64
  -189
  -202
  -217
  -232
  -246
  -262
  -278
  -295
  -313
  -330
  -350
  -370
  -390
  -411
  -433
  -457
  -481
  -507
  -533
  -561
  -590
  -621
  -654
  -687
  -722
  -759
  -798
  -839
  -881
  -926
Free cash flow, $m
  175
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -98
  -101
  -104
  -108
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -149
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -184
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -55
  96
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  324
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -57
  102
  107
  110
  114
  117
  121
  124
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  324
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  118
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  120
  127
  133
  140
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  82
  -31
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
Discount rate, %
 
  10.40
  10.92
  11.47
  12.04
  12.64
  13.27
  13.94
  14.63
  15.37
  16.13
  16.94
  17.79
  18.68
  19.61
  20.59
  21.62
  22.70
  23.84
  25.03
  26.28
  27.59
  28.97
  30.42
  31.94
  33.54
  35.22
  36.98
  38.83
  40.77
  42.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.9
  98.0
  97.2
  96.7
  96.3
  96.0
  95.9
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8
  95.8

Martin Midstream Partners L.P. is a limited partnership with a set of operations focused in the United States Gulf Coast region. The Company's four business lines include terminalling and storage services for petroleum products and by-products, including the refining of naphthenic crude oil and the blending and packaging of finished lubricants; natural gas services, including liquids transportation and distribution services, and natural gas storage; sulfur and sulfur-based products processing, manufacturing, marketing and distribution, and marine transportation services for petroleum products and by-products. The petroleum products and by-products it collects, transports, stores and markets are produced by oil and gas companies. As of December 31, 2016, it operated 26 marine shore-based terminal facilities and 14 specialty terminal facilities located in the United States Gulf Coast region. Its customers include oil and gas companies, chemical companies and fertilizer manufacturers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.3
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -20.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -39.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 259%
Total Debt to Equity 259%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Total Capital 2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Equity 9.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.4%
EBITDA Margin 15%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Operating Margin 8.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.8%
Payout Ratio 368.8%

MMLP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MMLP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $827 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Martin Midstream Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Martin Midstream Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MMLP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.4%, whose default value for MMLP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Martin Midstream Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Martin Midstream Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MMLP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MMLP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Martin Midstream Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Martin Midstream Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MMLP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MMLP are equal to 116%.

Life of production assets of 10.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Martin Midstream Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MMLP is equal to 9.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $312 million for Martin Midstream Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.897 million for Martin Midstream Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Martin Midstream Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-15-18 06:50AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Top MLP Gainers in the Week Ending January 12   [Jan-16-18 01:19PM  Market Realist]
▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlight   [Jan-15-18 10:17AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Martin Midstream Partners: Top MLP Gainer Last Week   [Dec-19-17 12:12PM  Market Realist]
▶ Top MLP Losers for Week Ended November 10   [05:05PM  Market Realist]
▶ Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to Host Earnings Call   [Oct-26-17 07:25AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ These MLPs Rose the Most Last Week   [Oct-09-17 02:35PM  Market Realist]
▶ Top MLP Losers during the Week Ended September 29   [Oct-03-17 03:10PM  Market Realist]
▶ These Five Midstream MLPs Offer Highest Yield   [Sep-21-17 04:06PM  Market Realist]
▶ Alerian Index Series September 2017 Index Review   [Sep-08-17 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ How Holly Energy Partners, L.P. Makes Most of Its Money   [May-24-17 11:08AM  Motley Fool]
▶ MLPs Issue Equity; Tailwind or Headwind for Sector?   [Mar-03-17 04:13PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Inside NuStar Energys Distribution Coverage in 4Q16   [Jan-25-17 09:08AM  Market Realist]
▶ Weekly CFO Buys Highlights   [Jan-17-17 03:59PM  GuruFocus.com]
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Financial statements of MMLP
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