Intrinsic value of Merit Medical Systems - MMSI

Previous Close

$45.50

  Intrinsic Value

$1.40

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

Previous close

$45.50

 
Intrinsic value

$1.40

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MMSI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.44
  14.00
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
Revenue, $m
  604
  689
  779
  874
  976
  1,082
  1,194
  1,310
  1,432
  1,559
  1,692
  1,829
  1,972
  2,121
  2,276
  2,436
  2,603
  2,777
  2,958
  3,145
  3,341
  3,545
  3,757
  3,978
  4,208
  4,449
  4,700
  4,963
  5,237
  5,523
  5,823
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  639
  720
  806
  896
  992
  1,092
  1,196
  1,306
  1,420
  1,538
  1,641
  1,769
  1,903
  2,041
  2,185
  2,335
  2,491
  2,653
  2,821
  2,996
  3,179
  3,369
  3,568
  3,775
  3,990
  4,216
  4,451
  4,697
  4,954
  5,222
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  569
  639
  720
  806
  896
  992
  1,092
  1,196
  1,306
  1,420
  1,538
  1,641
  1,769
  1,903
  2,041
  2,185
  2,335
  2,491
  2,653
  2,821
  2,996
  3,179
  3,369
  3,568
  3,775
  3,990
  4,216
  4,451
  4,697
  4,954
  5,222
Operating income, $m
  35
  50
  59
  69
  79
  90
  102
  114
  126
  140
  153
  189
  203
  219
  235
  251
  268
  286
  305
  324
  344
  365
  387
  410
  434
  459
  485
  512
  540
  569
  600
EBITDA, $m
  79
  105
  119
  133
  149
  165
  182
  200
  219
  238
  258
  279
  301
  324
  347
  372
  397
  424
  451
  480
  510
  541
  573
  607
  642
  679
  717
  757
  799
  843
  889
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
Earnings before tax, $m
  25
  39
  46
  54
  62
  70
  79
  88
  98
  108
  118
  150
  161
  173
  185
  198
  211
  225
  239
  254
  269
  285
  302
  320
  338
  357
  377
  397
  419
  442
  465
Tax expense, $m
  5
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  119
  126
Net income, $m
  20
  28
  34
  39
  45
  51
  58
  64
  71
  79
  86
  110
  118
  126
  135
  145
  154
  164
  175
  185
  197
  208
  221
  233
  247
  260
  275
  290
  306
  322
  340

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  943
  1,053
  1,191
  1,337
  1,492
  1,654
  1,825
  2,004
  2,190
  2,384
  2,587
  2,797
  3,016
  3,243
  3,480
  3,725
  3,981
  4,246
  4,522
  4,809
  5,108
  5,420
  5,744
  6,082
  6,435
  6,803
  7,187
  7,588
  8,007
  8,445
  8,903
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  924
  1,053
  1,191
  1,337
  1,492
  1,654
  1,825
  2,004
  2,190
  2,384
  2,587
  2,797
  3,016
  3,243
  3,480
  3,725
  3,981
  4,246
  4,522
  4,809
  5,108
  5,420
  5,744
  6,082
  6,435
  6,803
  7,187
  7,588
  8,007
  8,445
  8,903
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
Average production assets, $m
  419
  477
  540
  606
  676
  750
  827
  908
  993
  1,081
  1,172
  1,268
  1,367
  1,470
  1,577
  1,688
  1,804
  1,924
  2,050
  2,180
  2,315
  2,456
  2,603
  2,757
  2,916
  3,083
  3,257
  3,439
  3,629
  3,828
  4,035
Working capital, $m
  155
  167
  188
  212
  236
  262
  289
  317
  347
  377
  409
  443
  477
  513
  551
  590
  630
  672
  716
  761
  809
  858
  909
  963
  1,018
  1,077
  1,137
  1,201
  1,267
  1,337
  1,409
Total debt, $m
  324
  375
  440
  509
  582
  658
  739
  823
  910
  1,002
  1,097
  1,196
  1,300
  1,407
  1,518
  1,634
  1,754
  1,879
  2,009
  2,144
  2,285
  2,432
  2,584
  2,744
  2,910
  3,083
  3,264
  3,453
  3,650
  3,857
  4,072
Total liabilities, $m
  445
  496
  561
  630
  703
  779
  860
  944
  1,031
  1,123
  1,218
  1,317
  1,421
  1,528
  1,639
  1,755
  1,875
  2,000
  2,130
  2,265
  2,406
  2,553
  2,705
  2,865
  3,031
  3,204
  3,385
  3,574
  3,771
  3,978
  4,193
Total equity, $m
  498
  557
  630
  707
  789
  875
  965
  1,060
  1,158
  1,261
  1,368
  1,480
  1,595
  1,716
  1,841
  1,971
  2,106
  2,246
  2,392
  2,544
  2,702
  2,867
  3,039
  3,217
  3,404
  3,599
  3,802
  4,014
  4,236
  4,468
  4,710
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  943
  1,053
  1,191
  1,337
  1,492
  1,654
  1,825
  2,004
  2,189
  2,384
  2,586
  2,797
  3,016
  3,244
  3,480
  3,726
  3,981
  4,246
  4,522
  4,809
  5,108
  5,420
  5,744
  6,082
  6,435
  6,803
  7,187
  7,588
  8,007
  8,446
  8,903
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.651
  0.670
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.518
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529
  0.529

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  20
  28
  34
  39
  45
  51
  58
  64
  71
  79
  86
  110
  118
  126
  135
  145
  154
  164
  175
  185
  197
  208
  221
  233
  247
  260
  275
  290
  306
  322
  340
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  44
  55
  60
  64
  69
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  91
  98
  105
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  156
  165
  175
  186
  197
  208
  220
  233
  246
  259
  273
  288
Funds from operations, $m
  41
  84
  93
  104
  114
  126
  138
  150
  163
  177
  191
  200
  216
  231
  248
  265
  283
  302
  321
  341
  362
  384
  407
  430
  455
  481
  508
  536
  565
  596
  628
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
Cash from operations, $m
  54
  63
  71
  80
  90
  100
  111
  122
  134
  146
  159
  167
  181
  195
  211
  226
  243
  260
  277
  296
  315
  335
  355
  377
  399
  422
  447
  472
  499
  526
  555
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -54
  -59
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -146
  -156
  -165
  -175
  -186
  -197
  -208
  -220
  -233
  -246
  -259
  -273
New CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -208
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -159
  -89
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -122
  -131
  -140
  -149
  -159
  -169
  -179
  -190
  -201
  -212
  -224
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -276
  -291
  -306
  -322
  -339
  -357
  -375
  -394
  -415
  -436
  -458
  -481
Free cash flow, $m
  -105
  -25
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -22
  -20
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -10
  -12
  -9
  -5
  -2
  2
  6
  10
  15
  19
  24
  28
  33
  38
  42
  47
  53
  58
  63
  69
  74
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  117
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  216
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  40
  39
  38
  37
  35
  33
  30
  27
  24
  21
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  121
  101
  104
  107
  110
  112
  113
  114
  115
  116
  116
  101
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  216
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  15
  75
  79
  83
  86
  90
  93
  96
  100
  103
  106
  89
  94
  102
  110
  118
  127
  135
  145
  154
  164
  175
  186
  197
  209
  221
  233
  247
  261
  275
  290
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -32
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -232
  -242
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  16
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  -1
  -23
  -22
  -18
  -15
  -12
  -8
  -5
  -1
  2
  6
  10
  14
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  39
  43
  48
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  15
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.3
  96.8
  95.6
  94.5
  93.6
  92.9
  92.3
  91.7
  91.3
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0

Merit Medical Systems, Inc. is a manufacturer and marketer of disposable medical devices used in a range of interventional, diagnostic and therapeutic medical procedures. The Company operates in two segments: cardiovascular and endoscopy. The cardiovascular segment consists of cardiology and radiology devices, which assist in diagnosing and treating coronary arterial disease, peripheral vascular disease and other non-vascular diseases, and includes embolotherapeutic, cardiac rhythm management (CRM), electrophysiology (EP), and interventional oncology and spine devices. Its endoscopy segment consists of gastroenterology and pulmonology medical devices, which assist in the palliative treatment of expanding esophageal, tracheobronchial and biliary strictures caused by malignant tumors. Within its segments, the Company offers products focused in four product groups: peripheral intervention, cardiac intervention, interventional oncology and spine, and endoscopy.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Merit Medical Systems (MMSI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 101.6
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 4.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 37.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 106.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -34%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 63.1%
Total Debt to Equity 65.1%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Equity 4.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.8%
EBITDA Margin 12.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Operating Margin 5.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

MMSI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MMSI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $604 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Merit Medical Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Merit Medical Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MMSI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for MMSI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Merit Medical Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Merit Medical Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MMSI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MMSI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Merit Medical Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Merit Medical Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MMSI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MMSI are equal to 69.3%.

Life of production assets of 14 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Merit Medical Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MMSI is equal to 24.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $498 million for Merit Medical Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.926 million for Merit Medical Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Merit Medical Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Merit Medical to Participate at Three Conferences   [Oct-30-17 09:29AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Merit Medical reports 3Q loss   [Oct-25-17 05:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Merit Medical Systems Trading Near Top Of Buy Zone With EPS On Deck   [Oct-10-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Why Are Top Fund Managers Buying This Breakout Medical Stock?   [Oct-04-17 04:23PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ 2 Top Stocks Break Out Today; A Third Sets Up To Move Higher   [Oct-02-17 01:01PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Merit Medical to Participate at Five Conferences   [Aug-29-17 09:29AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Merit Medical to Participate at Three Conferences   [Jul-31-17 09:29AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Merit Medical tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-27-17 11:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Merit Medical Announces Appointment of New Director   [May-26-17 09:29AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Stocks To Buy And Watch: Top IPOs, Big And Small Caps, Growth Stocks   [May-23-17 05:10PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Merit Medical to Participate at Three Conferences   [May-03-17 09:29AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Merit Medical beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-27-17 05:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Evercore ISI Sees 20% Upside in Salesforce.com   [Apr-08-17 12:02AM  Barrons.com]
▶ After-hours buzz: ESPR, NKTR, MMSI & more   [Mar-20-17 06:21PM  at CNBC]
▶ SA medical technology company lands major European deal   [Mar-08-17 09:48AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ [$$] Home Depot Looks Fit, UPS Looks Squeezed   [Feb-25-17 12:25AM  at Barrons.com]
Financial statements of MMSI
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