Intrinsic value of Merit Medical Systems - MMSI

Previous Close

$57.80

  Intrinsic Value

$1.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$57.80

 
Intrinsic value

$1.24

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MMSI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.50
  18.95
  17.56
  16.30
  15.17
  14.15
  13.24
  12.41
  11.67
  11.01
  10.40
  9.86
  9.38
  8.94
  8.55
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.33
  7.09
  6.88
  6.70
  6.53
  6.37
  6.24
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
Revenue, $m
  877
  1,043
  1,226
  1,426
  1,643
  1,875
  2,123
  2,387
  2,666
  2,959
  3,267
  3,589
  3,926
  4,277
  4,642
  5,022
  5,418
  5,829
  6,256
  6,699
  7,161
  7,640
  8,139
  8,657
  9,197
  9,759
  10,345
  10,956
  11,592
  12,257
Variable operating expenses, $m
  818
  965
  1,127
  1,305
  1,496
  1,702
  1,922
  2,156
  2,403
  2,663
  2,895
  3,181
  3,479
  3,790
  4,114
  4,451
  4,801
  5,165
  5,544
  5,937
  6,346
  6,771
  7,213
  7,672
  8,151
  8,649
  9,168
  9,709
  10,273
  10,862
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  818
  965
  1,127
  1,305
  1,496
  1,702
  1,922
  2,156
  2,403
  2,663
  2,895
  3,181
  3,479
  3,790
  4,114
  4,451
  4,801
  5,165
  5,544
  5,937
  6,346
  6,771
  7,213
  7,672
  8,151
  8,649
  9,168
  9,709
  10,273
  10,862
Operating income, $m
  59
  78
  99
  122
  146
  173
  201
  231
  263
  296
  372
  408
  447
  487
  528
  571
  616
  663
  712
  762
  815
  869
  926
  985
  1,046
  1,110
  1,177
  1,246
  1,319
  1,394
EBITDA, $m
  146
  174
  204
  238
  274
  312
  354
  398
  444
  493
  544
  598
  654
  713
  773
  837
  903
  971
  1,042
  1,116
  1,193
  1,273
  1,356
  1,442
  1,532
  1,626
  1,724
  1,825
  1,931
  2,042
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  15
  20
  25
  31
  38
  45
  52
  60
  69
  78
  87
  97
  108
  118
  130
  142
  154
  167
  180
  194
  208
  223
  238
  255
  271
  289
  307
  326
  346
  366
Earnings before tax, $m
  44
  58
  74
  91
  109
  128
  149
  171
  194
  218
  285
  311
  339
  368
  398
  430
  463
  497
  532
  568
  607
  646
  687
  730
  775
  822
  870
  921
  973
  1,028
Tax expense, $m
  12
  16
  20
  24
  29
  35
  40
  46
  52
  59
  77
  84
  92
  99
  108
  116
  125
  134
  144
  153
  164
  174
  186
  197
  209
  222
  235
  249
  263
  278
Net income, $m
  32
  43
  54
  66
  79
  94
  109
  125
  142
  159
  208
  227
  248
  269
  291
  314
  338
  362
  388
  415
  443
  472
  502
  533
  566
  600
  635
  672
  710
  751

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,339
  1,593
  1,872
  2,178
  2,508
  2,863
  3,242
  3,644
  4,070
  4,517
  4,987
  5,479
  5,993
  6,529
  7,087
  7,668
  8,271
  8,899
  9,550
  10,228
  10,932
  11,664
  12,425
  13,217
  14,042
  14,900
  15,794
  16,726
  17,698
  18,712
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,339
  1,593
  1,872
  2,178
  2,508
  2,863
  3,242
  3,644
  4,070
  4,517
  4,987
  5,479
  5,993
  6,529
  7,087
  7,668
  8,271
  8,899
  9,550
  10,228
  10,932
  11,664
  12,425
  13,217
  14,042
  14,900
  15,794
  16,726
  17,698
  18,712
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
Average production assets, $m
  570
  678
  797
  927
  1,068
  1,219
  1,380
  1,552
  1,733
  1,923
  2,123
  2,333
  2,552
  2,780
  3,017
  3,264
  3,521
  3,789
  4,066
  4,355
  4,654
  4,966
  5,290
  5,627
  5,978
  6,344
  6,724
  7,121
  7,535
  7,967
Working capital, $m
  226
  269
  316
  368
  424
  484
  548
  616
  688
  763
  843
  926
  1,013
  1,103
  1,198
  1,296
  1,398
  1,504
  1,614
  1,728
  1,847
  1,971
  2,100
  2,234
  2,373
  2,518
  2,669
  2,827
  2,991
  3,162
Total debt, $m
  368
  467
  577
  697
  826
  965
  1,114
  1,272
  1,438
  1,614
  1,798
  1,991
  2,192
  2,402
  2,621
  2,849
  3,085
  3,331
  3,587
  3,852
  4,128
  4,415
  4,714
  5,024
  5,347
  5,684
  6,034
  6,400
  6,781
  7,178
Total liabilities, $m
  525
  624
  734
  854
  983
  1,122
  1,271
  1,429
  1,595
  1,771
  1,955
  2,148
  2,349
  2,559
  2,778
  3,006
  3,242
  3,488
  3,744
  4,009
  4,285
  4,572
  4,871
  5,181
  5,504
  5,841
  6,191
  6,557
  6,938
  7,335
Total equity, $m
  814
  968
  1,138
  1,324
  1,525
  1,741
  1,971
  2,216
  2,474
  2,747
  3,032
  3,331
  3,644
  3,970
  4,309
  4,662
  5,029
  5,410
  5,807
  6,219
  6,647
  7,092
  7,555
  8,036
  8,537
  9,059
  9,603
  10,170
  10,760
  11,377
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,339
  1,592
  1,872
  2,178
  2,508
  2,863
  3,242
  3,645
  4,069
  4,518
  4,987
  5,479
  5,993
  6,529
  7,087
  7,668
  8,271
  8,898
  9,551
  10,228
  10,932
  11,664
  12,426
  13,217
  14,041
  14,900
  15,794
  16,727
  17,698
  18,712
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.450
  0.480
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608
  0.608

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  32
  43
  54
  66
  79
  94
  109
  125
  142
  159
  208
  227
  248
  269
  291
  314
  338
  362
  388
  415
  443
  472
  502
  533
  566
  600
  635
  672
  710
  751
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  87
  96
  105
  116
  127
  140
  153
  167
  181
  197
  173
  190
  207
  226
  245
  265
  286
  308
  331
  354
  378
  404
  430
  458
  486
  516
  547
  579
  613
  648
Funds from operations, $m
  119
  138
  159
  182
  207
  233
  261
  291
  323
  356
  380
  417
  455
  495
  536
  579
  624
  670
  719
  769
  821
  876
  932
  991
  1,052
  1,115
  1,182
  1,251
  1,323
  1,398
Change in working capital, $m
  38
  43
  47
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  164
  171
Cash from operations, $m
  81
  95
  112
  130
  151
  173
  197
  223
  251
  281
  301
  334
  368
  404
  442
  481
  522
  564
  609
  655
  702
  752
  803
  857
  913
  970
  1,031
  1,093
  1,159
  1,227
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -38
  -46
  -55
  -65
  -75
  -87
  -99
  -112
  -126
  -141
  -156
  -173
  -190
  -207
  -226
  -245
  -265
  -286
  -308
  -331
  -354
  -378
  -404
  -430
  -458
  -486
  -516
  -547
  -579
  -613
New CAPEX, $m
  -97
  -108
  -119
  -130
  -141
  -151
  -161
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -228
  -238
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -278
  -288
  -300
  -312
  -324
  -337
  -351
  -365
  -381
  -397
  -414
  -432
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -135
  -154
  -174
  -195
  -216
  -238
  -260
  -283
  -307
  -332
  -356
  -382
  -409
  -435
  -464
  -492
  -522
  -553
  -586
  -619
  -654
  -690
  -728
  -767
  -809
  -851
  -897
  -944
  -993
  -1,045
Free cash flow, $m
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -65
  -65
  -63
  -60
  -56
  -51
  -56
  -48
  -40
  -31
  -22
  -11
  0
  11
  23
  36
  48
  62
  75
  90
  104
  119
  134
  150
  166
  183
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  89
  99
  110
  120
  129
  139
  149
  158
  167
  176
  184
  193
  201
  210
  219
  228
  237
  246
  256
  266
  276
  287
  298
  310
  323
  336
  351
  365
  381
  398
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  106
  112
  116
  119
  122
  122
  122
  120
  117
  113
  78
  72
  65
  57
  48
  39
  29
  19
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  195
  211
  226
  239
  251
  261
  271
  278
  284
  289
  262
  265
  266
  267
  267
  267
  266
  265
  264
  266
  276
  287
  298
  310
  323
  336
  351
  365
  381
  398
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  140
  152
  164
  175
  186
  197
  207
  218
  228
  238
  207
  216
  226
  236
  245
  255
  266
  276
  287
  301
  324
  349
  374
  400
  427
  455
  485
  515
  547
  580
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -138
  -154
  -170
  -186
  -201
  -216
  -230
  -245
  -259
  -272
  -286
  -299
  -312
  -326
  -339
  -353
  -367
  -381
  -396
  -412
  -428
  -445
  -463
  -482
  -501
  -522
  -544
  -567
  -591
  -617
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  2
  -2
  -6
  -11
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -111
  -104
  -96
  -89
  -81
  -74
  -66
  -59
  -51
  -44
  -36
Discount rate, %
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  2
  -2
  -5
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -30
  -28
  -25
  -22
  -19
  -17
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.8
  94.0
  91.7
  89.6
  87.9
  86.4
  85.2
  84.1
  83.1
  82.3
  81.8
  81.4
  81.1
  80.8
  80.6
  80.4
  80.3
  80.3
  80.3
  80.3
  80.3
  80.3
  80.3
  80.3
  80.3
  80.3
  80.3
  80.3
  80.3
  80.3

Merit Medical Systems, Inc. is a manufacturer and marketer of disposable medical devices used in a range of interventional, diagnostic and therapeutic medical procedures. The Company operates in two segments: cardiovascular and endoscopy. The cardiovascular segment consists of cardiology and radiology devices, which assist in diagnosing and treating coronary arterial disease, peripheral vascular disease and other non-vascular diseases, and includes embolotherapeutic, cardiac rhythm management (CRM), electrophysiology (EP), and interventional oncology and spine devices. Its endoscopy segment consists of gastroenterology and pulmonology medical devices, which assist in the palliative treatment of expanding esophageal, tracheobronchial and biliary strictures caused by malignant tumors. Within its segments, the Company offers products focused in four product groups: peripheral intervention, cardiac intervention, interventional oncology and spine, and endoscopy.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Merit Medical Systems (MMSI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 129
Price to Sales 4.3
Price to Book 5.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 47.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 135.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -34%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 63.1%
Total Debt to Equity 65.1%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Equity 4.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.8%
EBITDA Margin 12.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Operating Margin 5.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

MMSI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MMSI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $727.852 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Merit Medical Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Merit Medical Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MMSI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for MMSI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Merit Medical Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Merit Medical Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MMSI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MMSI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Merit Medical Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Merit Medical Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MMSI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MMSI are equal to 65%.

Life of production assets of 12.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Merit Medical Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MMSI is equal to 25.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $676.334 million for Merit Medical Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 54.735 million for Merit Medical Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Merit Medical Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Merit Medical Closes Cianna Medical, Inc. Deal   [Nov-13-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Merit Medical: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ Merit Medical to Present at Three Upcoming Conferences   [Sep-19-18 09:25AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Merit Medical to Present at Three Upcoming Conferences   [Aug-28-18 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Merit Medical to Present at Two Conferences in August   [Jul-31-18 09:25AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Merit Medical: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-23-18 04:09PM  Associated Press]
▶ 7 GARP Stocks to Scoop Up for Maximum Returns   [Jun-28-18 09:50AM  Zacks]
▶ Merit Medical to Present at Three Conferences in May   [Apr-30-18 09:25AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Merit Medical: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-25-18 05:18PM  Associated Press]

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