Intrinsic value of McClatchy Cl A - MNI

Previous Close

$7.20

  Intrinsic Value

$3.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-53%

Previous close

$7.20

 
Intrinsic value

$3.38

 
Up/down potential

-53%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MNI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  922
  943
  967
  994
  1,024
  1,058
  1,094
  1,133
  1,175
  1,220
  1,268
  1,319
  1,374
  1,432
  1,494
  1,560
  1,629
  1,702
  1,780
  1,861
  1,948
  2,039
  2,135
  2,236
  2,342
  2,454
  2,572
  2,696
  2,827
  2,964
Variable operating expenses, $m
  884
  902
  923
  946
  972
  1,000
  1,031
  1,065
  1,101
  1,139
  1,087
  1,132
  1,179
  1,228
  1,281
  1,338
  1,397
  1,460
  1,526
  1,596
  1,670
  1,749
  1,831
  1,917
  2,009
  2,105
  2,206
  2,312
  2,424
  2,542
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  884
  902
  923
  946
  972
  1,000
  1,031
  1,065
  1,101
  1,139
  1,087
  1,132
  1,179
  1,228
  1,281
  1,338
  1,397
  1,460
  1,526
  1,596
  1,670
  1,749
  1,831
  1,917
  2,009
  2,105
  2,206
  2,312
  2,424
  2,542
Operating income, $m
  38
  41
  44
  48
  52
  57
  62
  68
  74
  80
  180
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384
  402
  422
EBITDA, $m
  181
  185
  190
  195
  201
  208
  215
  222
  231
  239
  249
  259
  270
  281
  293
  306
  320
  334
  349
  365
  382
  400
  419
  439
  460
  482
  505
  529
  555
  582
Interest expense (income), $m
  73
  80
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
  113
  121
  129
  138
  148
  158
  169
  180
  192
  204
  218
  232
  246
  262
  278
  295
  313
Earnings before tax, $m
  -43
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -5
  89
  90
  90
  91
  92
  93
  94
  94
  95
  96
  97
  98
  99
  101
  102
  103
  104
  106
  107
  109
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  24
  24
  24
  25
  25
  25
  25
  25
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  29
Net income, $m
  -43
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -5
  65
  66
  66
  67
  67
  68
  68
  69
  70
  70
  71
  72
  73
  73
  74
  75
  76
  77
  78
  79

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,536
  1,571
  1,612
  1,657
  1,707
  1,763
  1,823
  1,888
  1,958
  2,033
  2,113
  2,199
  2,290
  2,387
  2,490
  2,599
  2,715
  2,837
  2,966
  3,102
  3,246
  3,398
  3,558
  3,726
  3,903
  4,090
  4,287
  4,494
  4,711
  4,940
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,536
  1,571
  1,612
  1,657
  1,707
  1,763
  1,823
  1,888
  1,958
  2,033
  2,113
  2,199
  2,290
  2,387
  2,490
  2,599
  2,715
  2,837
  2,966
  3,102
  3,246
  3,398
  3,558
  3,726
  3,903
  4,090
  4,287
  4,494
  4,711
  4,940
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
Average production assets, $m
  777
  795
  815
  838
  864
  891
  922
  955
  990
  1,028
  1,069
  1,112
  1,158
  1,207
  1,259
  1,315
  1,373
  1,435
  1,500
  1,569
  1,642
  1,719
  1,799
  1,885
  1,974
  2,069
  2,168
  2,273
  2,383
  2,499
Working capital, $m
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
Total debt, $m
  546
  577
  614
  654
  700
  749
  803
  862
  925
  992
  1,065
  1,142
  1,224
  1,311
  1,404
  1,502
  1,606
  1,716
  1,832
  1,955
  2,084
  2,221
  2,365
  2,516
  2,676
  2,844
  3,021
  3,207
  3,403
  3,609
Total liabilities, $m
  1,382
  1,414
  1,451
  1,491
  1,537
  1,586
  1,640
  1,699
  1,762
  1,829
  1,902
  1,979
  2,061
  2,148
  2,241
  2,339
  2,443
  2,553
  2,669
  2,792
  2,921
  3,058
  3,202
  3,353
  3,513
  3,681
  3,858
  4,044
  4,240
  4,446
Total equity, $m
  154
  157
  161
  166
  171
  176
  182
  189
  196
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
  271
  284
  297
  310
  325
  340
  356
  373
  390
  409
  429
  449
  471
  494
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,536
  1,571
  1,612
  1,657
  1,708
  1,762
  1,822
  1,888
  1,958
  2,032
  2,113
  2,199
  2,290
  2,387
  2,490
  2,599
  2,714
  2,837
  2,966
  3,102
  3,246
  3,398
  3,558
  3,726
  3,903
  4,090
  4,287
  4,493
  4,711
  4,940
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.550
  3.670
  3.810
  3.950
  4.100
  4.250
  4.410
  4.570
  4.720
  4.880
  5.040
  5.190
  5.350
  5.490
  5.640
  5.780
  5.920
  6.050
  6.180
  6.300
  6.420
  6.540
  6.650
  6.750
  6.860
  6.950
  7.050
  7.140
  7.220
  7.310
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -43
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -5
  65
  66
  66
  67
  67
  68
  68
  69
  70
  70
  71
  72
  73
  73
  74
  75
  76
  77
  78
  79
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  143
  144
  146
  147
  149
  150
  152
  155
  157
  159
  69
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
Funds from operations, $m
  101
  135
  137
  139
  141
  143
  146
  148
  151
  154
  134
  137
  140
  144
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  171
  176
  182
  188
  194
  201
  208
  215
  223
  231
  240
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  101
  135
  137
  139
  141
  144
  146
  149
  152
  155
  134
  138
  141
  145
  149
  153
  158
  162
  167
  172
  178
  184
  190
  196
  203
  210
  217
  225
  233
  242
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -269
Free cash flow, $m
  37
  68
  66
  64
  62
  61
  59
  57
  55
  54
  28
  26
  24
  22
  19
  17
  15
  12
  10
  7
  4
  2
  -1
  -5
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -19
  -22
  -27
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -328
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  400
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  12
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  72
  45
  49
  54
  58
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  110
  112
  115
  118
  120
  123
  126
  128
  131
  134
  100
  103
  106
  109
  112
  115
  119
  122
  126
  130
  134
  138
  142
  147
  152
  157
  162
  168
  173
  179
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -400
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -12
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -291
  99
  102
  105
  108
  110
  113
  116
  118
  121
  92
  94
  97
  99
  102
  105
  107
  110
  113
  116
  120
  123
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  147
  152
  157
Discount rate, %
  15.50
  16.28
  17.09
  17.94
  18.84
  19.78
  20.77
  21.81
  22.90
  24.05
  25.25
  26.51
  27.84
  29.23
  30.69
  32.22
  33.83
  35.53
  37.30
  39.17
  41.13
  43.18
  45.34
  47.61
  49.99
  52.49
  55.11
  57.87
  60.76
  63.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -252
  74
  64
  54
  45
  37
  30
  24
  19
  14
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  46.1
  42.6
  39.5
  36.7
  34.1
  31.8
  29.8
  27.9
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3
  26.3

The McClatchy Company is a news and information publisher of various publications, such as the Miami Herald, The Sacramento Bee, The Charlotte Observer, The (Raleigh) News and Observer, and the (Fort Worth) Star-Telegram. The Company's segments include Western Segment and Eastern Segment. Its Western Segment consists of its newspaper operations in California, the Northwest and the Midwest. The Company's Eastern Segment consists primarily of newspaper operations in the Southeast and Florida. The Company operates 30 media companies in 29 United States markets in 14 states, providing each of these communities with news and advertising services in a range of digital and print formats. The Company's operations include approximately 30 local media businesses in in over 30 growth markets across the United States that consist of daily newspapers, Websites and mobile applications, mobile news and advertising, video products, publications, direct marketing and direct mail services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  McClatchy Cl A (MNI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.6
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 0.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -31.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -17%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 727.2%
Total Debt to Equity 742.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Total Capital -3.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Return On Equity -22.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.6%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 91.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 90.9%
EBITDA Margin 11.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.3%
Operating Margin 2.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Net Profit Margin -3.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Effective Tax Rate 27.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

MNI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MNI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $903.592 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by McClatchy Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of McClatchy Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MNI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 15.5%, whose default value for MNI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of McClatchy Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of McClatchy Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MNI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MNI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.2% for McClatchy Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for McClatchy Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MNI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MNI are equal to 84.3%.

Life of production assets of 15.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in McClatchy Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MNI is equal to -1.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-204.332 million for McClatchy Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 5.347 million for McClatchy Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of McClatchy Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ McClatchy: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [09:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ Tim Grieve to Step Down as Vice President of News   [Oct-26-18 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ High Times Acquires DOPE to Score More Regional Markets   [Sep-26-18 02:30PM  IPO-Edge.com]
▶ The spiraling down of the daily newspaper: Circulation declines, layoffs continue   [Jul-11-18 07:00AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ McClatchy Holds 2018 Annual Meeting Of Shareholders   [May-17-18 04:39PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Goldman Wants to Trade Your Bitcoins   [May-03-18 10:42AM  Bloomberg]
▶ Goldman FX Trader Was Loyal to His Chat Room   [May-02-18 10:34AM  Bloomberg]
▶ Another Weird Deal Upsets CDS Traders   [May-01-18 09:59AM  Bloomberg]
▶ McClatchy Company Class A to Host Earnings Call   [Apr-27-18 09:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ McClatchy: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [09:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ Rebecca Poynter Named Publisher of the Idaho Statesman   [Apr-23-18 11:52AM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Russia, the NRA and Fake News   [Mar-23-18 01:23AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ McClatchy posts 4Q profit   [Feb-16-18 09:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ Judge rules for McClatchy officials accused of mismanagement   [Jan-17-18 06:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ Vijay Ravindran Named To McClatchy's Board Of Directors   [Dec-05-17 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Three McClatchy Newsrooms to Join News Co/Lab Initiative   [Nov-03-17 11:56AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Who Owns The McClatchy Company (MNI)?   [Oct-31-17 05:55PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ McClatchy reports 3Q loss   [09:40AM  Associated Press]
▶ Publishing Industry Outlook - October 2017   [Oct-13-17 01:32PM  Zacks]

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