Intrinsic value of MannKind Corporation - MNKD

Previous Close

$1.07

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$1.07

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MNKD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  45
  69
  104
  150
  212
  291
  391
  513
  661
  834
  1,036
  1,267
  1,527
  1,817
  2,136
  2,485
  2,863
  3,268
  3,702
  4,162
  4,648
  5,160
  5,698
  6,260
  6,848
  7,461
  8,099
  8,763
  9,453
  10,171
Variable operating expenses, $m
  82
  126
  188
  273
  386
  530
  712
  935
  1,203
  1,520
  1,887
  2,307
  2,781
  3,309
  3,890
  4,525
  5,213
  5,952
  6,740
  7,578
  8,464
  9,396
  10,375
  11,400
  12,470
  13,586
  14,748
  15,957
  17,214
  18,521
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  101
  104
  106
  108
  111
  113
  115
  118
  121
  123
  126
  129
  132
  134
  137
  140
  144
  147
  150
  153
  157
  160
  164
  167
Total operating expenses, $m
  171
  217
  281
  368
  483
  629
  813
  1,039
  1,309
  1,628
  1,998
  2,420
  2,896
  3,427
  4,011
  4,648
  5,339
  6,081
  6,872
  7,712
  8,601
  9,536
  10,519
  11,547
  12,620
  13,739
  14,905
  16,117
  17,378
  18,688
Operating income, $m
  -126
  -148
  -178
  -218
  -271
  -338
  -422
  -525
  -648
  -793
  -961
  -1,153
  -1,369
  -1,610
  -1,875
  -2,163
  -2,476
  -2,812
  -3,170
  -3,551
  -3,953
  -4,377
  -4,821
  -5,286
  -5,772
  -6,278
  -6,806
  -7,354
  -7,924
  -8,517
EBITDA, $m
  -121
  -141
  -167
  -203
  -249
  -309
  -382
  -473
  -581
  -708
  -856
  -1,024
  -1,213
  -1,424
  -1,657
  -1,910
  -2,184
  -2,479
  -2,793
  -3,127
  -3,479
  -3,851
  -4,240
  -4,648
  -5,074
  -5,518
  -5,980
  -6,461
  -6,961
  -7,480
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  7
  -2
  4
  12
  23
  37
  56
  79
  108
  142
  183
  231
  285
  346
  414
  489
  571
  659
  754
  856
  964
  1,078
  1,198
  1,324
  1,456
  1,594
  1,738
  1,888
  2,043
  2,205
Earnings before tax, $m
  -133
  -146
  -181
  -230
  -294
  -375
  -478
  -604
  -756
  -936
  -1,144
  -1,384
  -1,654
  -1,955
  -2,288
  -2,652
  -3,047
  -3,471
  -3,925
  -4,407
  -4,917
  -5,455
  -6,019
  -6,611
  -7,228
  -7,873
  -8,544
  -9,242
  -9,968
  -10,723
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -133
  -146
  -181
  -230
  -294
  -375
  -478
  -604
  -756
  -936
  -1,144
  -1,384
  -1,654
  -1,955
  -2,288
  -2,652
  -3,047
  -3,471
  -3,925
  -4,407
  -4,917
  -5,455
  -6,019
  -6,611
  -7,228
  -7,873
  -8,544
  -9,242
  -9,968
  -10,723

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  160
  247
  370
  536
  757
  1,040
  1,397
  1,834
  2,360
  2,980
  3,701
  4,525
  5,454
  6,489
  7,630
  8,875
  10,224
  11,672
  13,220
  14,863
  16,600
  18,429
  20,348
  22,358
  24,456
  26,645
  28,924
  31,295
  33,761
  36,323
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  160
  247
  370
  536
  757
  1,040
  1,397
  1,834
  2,360
  2,980
  3,701
  4,525
  5,454
  6,489
  7,630
  8,875
  10,224
  11,672
  13,220
  14,863
  16,600
  18,429
  20,348
  22,358
  24,456
  26,645
  28,924
  31,295
  33,761
  36,323
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.281
  0.279
  0.281
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
Average production assets, $m
  42
  65
  97
  141
  199
  273
  367
  482
  620
  783
  972
  1,188
  1,432
  1,704
  2,004
  2,331
  2,685
  3,066
  3,472
  3,904
  4,360
  4,840
  5,344
  5,872
  6,423
  6,998
  7,597
  8,219
  8,867
  9,540
Working capital, $m
  -86
  -133
  -199
  -288
  -407
  -559
  -751
  -986
  -1,268
  -1,602
  -1,990
  -2,432
  -2,932
  -3,488
  -4,102
  -4,771
  -5,496
  -6,275
  -7,107
  -7,990
  -8,924
  -9,907
  -10,939
  -12,019
  -13,148
  -14,324
  -15,550
  -16,824
  -18,150
  -19,527
Total debt, $m
  -29
  50
  160
  310
  509
  764
  1,084
  1,478
  1,951
  2,510
  3,158
  3,900
  4,736
  5,667
  6,694
  7,815
  9,029
  10,333
  11,725
  13,204
  14,767
  16,413
  18,141
  19,949
  21,838
  23,808
  25,859
  27,993
  30,212
  32,519
Total liabilities, $m
  144
  222
  333
  483
  681
  936
  1,257
  1,650
  2,124
  2,682
  3,331
  4,072
  4,908
  5,840
  6,867
  7,988
  9,201
  10,505
  11,898
  13,377
  14,940
  16,586
  18,314
  20,122
  22,011
  23,980
  26,032
  28,166
  30,385
  32,691
Total equity, $m
  16
  25
  37
  54
  76
  104
  140
  183
  236
  298
  370
  452
  545
  649
  763
  888
  1,022
  1,167
  1,322
  1,486
  1,660
  1,843
  2,035
  2,236
  2,446
  2,664
  2,892
  3,130
  3,376
  3,632
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  160
  247
  370
  537
  757
  1,040
  1,397
  1,833
  2,360
  2,980
  3,701
  4,524
  5,453
  6,489
  7,630
  8,876
  10,223
  11,672
  13,220
  14,863
  16,600
  18,429
  20,349
  22,358
  24,457
  26,644
  28,924
  31,296
  33,761
  36,323
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.790
  2.020
  4.330
  5.780
  6.720
  7.340
  7.760
  8.060
  8.270
  8.420
  8.530
  8.620
  8.680
  8.730
  8.770
  8.810
  8.830
  8.850
  8.870
  8.880
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.920
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -133
  -146
  -181
  -230
  -294
  -375
  -478
  -604
  -756
  -936
  -1,144
  -1,384
  -1,654
  -1,955
  -2,288
  -2,652
  -3,047
  -3,471
  -3,925
  -4,407
  -4,917
  -5,455
  -6,019
  -6,611
  -7,228
  -7,873
  -8,544
  -9,242
  -9,968
  -10,723
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  7
  11
  15
  22
  30
  40
  52
  67
  85
  106
  129
  156
  185
  218
  253
  292
  333
  377
  424
  474
  526
  581
  638
  698
  761
  826
  893
  964
  1,037
Funds from operations, $m
  -129
  -139
  -171
  -215
  -272
  -346
  -438
  -552
  -689
  -851
  -1,039
  -1,254
  -1,498
  -1,770
  -2,070
  -2,399
  -2,755
  -3,138
  -3,547
  -3,983
  -4,443
  -4,929
  -5,438
  -5,972
  -6,530
  -7,112
  -7,718
  -8,348
  -9,004
  -9,686
Change in working capital, $m
  -32
  -47
  -66
  -90
  -118
  -152
  -191
  -235
  -283
  -334
  -387
  -443
  -499
  -556
  -613
  -670
  -725
  -779
  -832
  -883
  -934
  -983
  -1,032
  -1,080
  -1,128
  -1,177
  -1,225
  -1,275
  -1,325
  -1,378
Cash from operations, $m
  -96
  -92
  -105
  -125
  -154
  -193
  -247
  -317
  -406
  -517
  -651
  -812
  -999
  -1,214
  -1,457
  -1,729
  -2,030
  -2,359
  -2,716
  -3,099
  -3,510
  -3,945
  -4,406
  -4,892
  -5,402
  -5,935
  -6,493
  -7,074
  -7,679
  -8,308
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -15
  -22
  -30
  -40
  -52
  -67
  -85
  -106
  -129
  -156
  -185
  -218
  -253
  -292
  -333
  -377
  -424
  -474
  -526
  -581
  -638
  -698
  -761
  -826
  -893
  -964
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -23
  -32
  -44
  -58
  -74
  -94
  -115
  -138
  -163
  -189
  -216
  -244
  -272
  -300
  -327
  -354
  -381
  -406
  -432
  -456
  -480
  -504
  -528
  -551
  -575
  -599
  -623
  -648
  -673
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -19
  -28
  -39
  -55
  -73
  -96
  -124
  -155
  -190
  -230
  -274
  -322
  -373
  -428
  -485
  -545
  -607
  -673
  -739
  -809
  -880
  -954
  -1,030
  -1,109
  -1,189
  -1,273
  -1,360
  -1,449
  -1,541
  -1,637
Free cash flow, $m
  -115
  -119
  -144
  -179
  -227
  -289
  -370
  -472
  -597
  -747
  -926
  -1,134
  -1,372
  -1,641
  -1,942
  -2,274
  -2,637
  -3,031
  -3,455
  -3,908
  -4,390
  -4,900
  -5,437
  -6,001
  -6,591
  -7,208
  -7,852
  -8,522
  -9,220
  -9,945
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -131
  78
  110
  150
  198
  255
  321
  393
  473
  559
  649
  741
  836
  932
  1,027
  1,121
  1,213
  1,304
  1,392
  1,479
  1,563
  1,646
  1,728
  1,808
  1,889
  1,970
  2,051
  2,134
  2,219
  2,306
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  324
  154
  194
  247
  316
  404
  514
  648
  809
  998
  1,217
  1,466
  1,747
  2,059
  2,402
  2,777
  3,181
  3,616
  4,079
  4,571
  5,091
  5,638
  6,211
  6,811
  7,438
  8,091
  8,771
  9,479
  10,215
  10,979
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  193
  232
  304
  397
  514
  659
  835
  1,041
  1,282
  1,557
  1,866
  2,207
  2,583
  2,991
  3,429
  3,898
  4,394
  4,920
  5,471
  6,050
  6,654
  7,284
  7,939
  8,619
  9,327
  10,061
  10,822
  11,613
  12,434
  13,285
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  78
  114
  160
  217
  287
  370
  464
  570
  685
  809
  939
  1,074
  1,211
  1,349
  1,487
  1,623
  1,758
  1,889
  2,017
  2,142
  2,264
  2,384
  2,502
  2,619
  2,736
  2,853
  2,971
  3,091
  3,214
  3,340
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -324
  -154
  -194
  -247
  -316
  -404
  -514
  -648
  -809
  -998
  -1,217
  -1,466
  -1,747
  -2,059
  -2,402
  -2,777
  -3,181
  -3,616
  -4,079
  -4,571
  -5,091
  -5,638
  -6,211
  -6,811
  -7,438
  -8,091
  -8,771
  -9,479
  -10,215
  -10,979
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -246
  -41
  -34
  -29
  -28
  -34
  -50
  -78
  -123
  -189
  -277
  -392
  -536
  -710
  -915
  -1,153
  -1,424
  -1,727
  -2,063
  -2,429
  -2,827
  -3,254
  -3,709
  -4,192
  -4,702
  -5,239
  -5,801
  -6,388
  -7,001
  -7,638
Discount rate, %
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -233
  -36
  -28
  -23
  -20
  -23
  -30
  -43
  -60
  -82
  -106
  -131
  -154
  -174
  -189
  -198
  -200
  -196
  -187
  -172
  -154
  -134
  -113
  -93
  -74
  -57
  -43
  -31
  -22
  -15
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  4.7
  0.5
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

MannKind Corporation is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on the discovery and development of therapeutic products for diseases, such as diabetes. Its product candidate is AFREZZA, which is an inhaled insulin used to control high blood sugar in adults with type I and type II diabetes and helps in glycemic control. AFREZZA consists of a dry formulation of human insulin delivered from a portable inhaler. AFREZZA utilizes its Technosphere formulation technology. Technosphere is a drug delivery platform that may allow the oral inhalation of a range of therapeutics. Technosphere powders are based on the Company's fumaryl diketopiperazine (FDKP), which is a potential of Hydrogen (pH)-sensitive organic molecule that self-assembles into small particles under acidic conditions. The Company has also created a range of breath-powered, dry powder inhalers. Its inhalers can be produced in both a reusable (chronic treatment) and a single-use (acute treatment) format.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MannKind Corporation (MNKD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0.8
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book -0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -90%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -34%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity -42.4%
Total Debt to Equity -81%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 115.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -26%
Return On Total Capital -147.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1720.4%
Return On Equity -47.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 167.8%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.8%
EBITDA Margin 79.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.5%
Operating Margin 80%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 72%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Net Profit Margin 72%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

MNKD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MNKD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $28 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MannKind Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of MannKind Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MNKD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for MNKD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MannKind Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MannKind Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MNKD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 182.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $87 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MNKD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.3% for MannKind Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MannKind Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MNKD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MNKD are equal to 93.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MannKind Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MNKD is equal to -192%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-175.082 million for MannKind Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 187.341 million for MannKind Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MannKind Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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