Intrinsic value of Monster Beverage Corporation - MNST

Previous Close

$57.17

  Intrinsic Value

$43.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-23%

Previous close

$57.17

 
Intrinsic value

$43.96

 
Up/down potential

-23%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MNST stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 31.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.10
  13.19
  12.37
  11.63
  10.97
  10.37
  9.84
  9.35
  8.92
  8.53
  8.17
  7.86
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
Revenue, $m
  4,344
  4,917
  5,525
  6,168
  6,844
  7,554
  8,297
  9,073
  9,883
  10,725
  11,602
  12,513
  13,460
  14,445
  15,468
  16,531
  17,636
  18,786
  19,981
  21,226
  22,522
  23,873
  25,280
  26,748
  28,280
  29,878
  31,548
  33,292
  35,115
  37,022
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,764
  3,097
  3,451
  3,825
  4,218
  4,631
  5,063
  5,514
  5,985
  6,475
  6,747
  7,277
  7,828
  8,400
  8,995
  9,613
  10,256
  10,924
  11,620
  12,344
  13,097
  13,883
  14,701
  15,555
  16,446
  17,375
  18,346
  19,361
  20,421
  21,529
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,764
  3,097
  3,451
  3,825
  4,218
  4,631
  5,063
  5,514
  5,985
  6,475
  6,747
  7,277
  7,828
  8,400
  8,995
  9,613
  10,256
  10,924
  11,620
  12,344
  13,097
  13,883
  14,701
  15,555
  16,446
  17,375
  18,346
  19,361
  20,421
  21,529
Operating income, $m
  1,580
  1,820
  2,074
  2,343
  2,626
  2,923
  3,234
  3,559
  3,898
  4,250
  4,855
  5,236
  5,633
  6,045
  6,473
  6,918
  7,380
  7,861
  8,361
  8,882
  9,425
  9,990
  10,579
  11,193
  11,834
  12,503
  13,202
  13,932
  14,695
  15,492
EBITDA, $m
  1,872
  2,119
  2,381
  2,658
  2,949
  3,255
  3,576
  3,910
  4,259
  4,622
  5,000
  5,392
  5,800
  6,225
  6,665
  7,124
  7,600
  8,095
  8,611
  9,147
  9,706
  10,287
  10,894
  11,527
  12,187
  12,875
  13,595
  14,347
  15,132
  15,954
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  7
  15
  22
  31
  40
  49
  59
  69
  79
  90
  101
  113
  126
  138
  152
  166
  180
  195
  211
  227
  244
  261
  279
  299
  319
  339
  361
  384
  407
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,580
  1,813
  2,060
  2,321
  2,596
  2,884
  3,186
  3,501
  3,829
  4,171
  4,765
  5,135
  5,519
  5,919
  6,334
  6,766
  7,214
  7,681
  8,167
  8,672
  9,198
  9,746
  10,318
  10,914
  11,535
  12,185
  12,862
  13,571
  14,311
  15,085
Tax expense, $m
  427
  489
  556
  627
  701
  779
  860
  945
  1,034
  1,126
  1,286
  1,386
  1,490
  1,598
  1,710
  1,827
  1,948
  2,074
  2,205
  2,341
  2,483
  2,631
  2,786
  2,947
  3,115
  3,290
  3,473
  3,664
  3,864
  4,073
Net income, $m
  1,153
  1,323
  1,504
  1,694
  1,895
  2,105
  2,325
  2,555
  2,795
  3,045
  3,478
  3,748
  4,029
  4,321
  4,624
  4,939
  5,267
  5,607
  5,962
  6,330
  6,715
  7,115
  7,532
  7,967
  8,421
  8,895
  9,390
  9,907
  10,447
  11,012

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,758
  5,385
  6,051
  6,755
  7,497
  8,274
  9,088
  9,938
  10,824
  11,747
  12,707
  13,705
  14,743
  15,821
  16,942
  18,106
  19,317
  20,576
  21,885
  23,249
  24,668
  26,147
  27,689
  29,297
  30,974
  32,725
  34,554
  36,465
  38,462
  40,550
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,758
  5,385
  6,051
  6,755
  7,497
  8,274
  9,088
  9,938
  10,824
  11,747
  12,707
  13,705
  14,743
  15,821
  16,942
  18,106
  19,317
  20,576
  21,885
  23,249
  24,668
  26,147
  27,689
  29,297
  30,974
  32,725
  34,554
  36,465
  38,462
  40,550
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
  0.913
Average production assets, $m
  1,625
  1,839
  2,066
  2,307
  2,560
  2,825
  3,103
  3,393
  3,696
  4,011
  4,339
  4,680
  5,034
  5,402
  5,785
  6,183
  6,596
  7,026
  7,473
  7,939
  8,423
  8,928
  9,455
  10,004
  10,577
  11,175
  11,799
  12,451
  13,133
  13,846
Working capital, $m
  278
  315
  354
  395
  438
  483
  531
  581
  632
  686
  743
  801
  861
  924
  990
  1,058
  1,129
  1,202
  1,279
  1,358
  1,441
  1,528
  1,618
  1,712
  1,810
  1,912
  2,019
  2,131
  2,247
  2,369
Total debt, $m
  131
  269
  415
  570
  733
  904
  1,083
  1,270
  1,465
  1,668
  1,880
  2,099
  2,327
  2,565
  2,811
  3,067
  3,334
  3,611
  3,899
  4,199
  4,511
  4,836
  5,176
  5,529
  5,898
  6,284
  6,686
  7,106
  7,546
  8,005
Total liabilities, $m
  1,047
  1,185
  1,331
  1,486
  1,649
  1,820
  1,999
  2,186
  2,381
  2,584
  2,796
  3,015
  3,243
  3,481
  3,727
  3,983
  4,250
  4,527
  4,815
  5,115
  5,427
  5,752
  6,092
  6,445
  6,814
  7,200
  7,602
  8,022
  8,462
  8,921
Total equity, $m
  3,711
  4,200
  4,720
  5,269
  5,847
  6,454
  7,089
  7,752
  8,443
  9,163
  9,912
  10,690
  11,499
  12,340
  13,214
  14,123
  15,067
  16,049
  17,071
  18,134
  19,241
  20,395
  21,598
  22,852
  24,160
  25,526
  26,952
  28,442
  30,000
  31,629
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,758
  5,385
  6,051
  6,755
  7,496
  8,274
  9,088
  9,938
  10,824
  11,747
  12,708
  13,705
  14,742
  15,821
  16,941
  18,106
  19,317
  20,576
  21,886
  23,249
  24,668
  26,147
  27,690
  29,297
  30,974
  32,726
  34,554
  36,464
  38,462
  40,550
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.040
  0.060
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780
  0.780

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,153
  1,323
  1,504
  1,694
  1,895
  2,105
  2,325
  2,555
  2,795
  3,045
  3,478
  3,748
  4,029
  4,321
  4,624
  4,939
  5,267
  5,607
  5,962
  6,330
  6,715
  7,115
  7,532
  7,967
  8,421
  8,895
  9,390
  9,907
  10,447
  11,012
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  292
  299
  307
  315
  323
  332
  341
  351
  361
  372
  145
  156
  168
  180
  193
  206
  220
  234
  249
  265
  281
  298
  315
  333
  353
  372
  393
  415
  438
  462
Funds from operations, $m
  1,445
  1,622
  1,810
  2,009
  2,218
  2,437
  2,667
  2,906
  3,156
  3,416
  3,623
  3,904
  4,197
  4,501
  4,817
  5,145
  5,486
  5,841
  6,211
  6,595
  6,995
  7,412
  7,847
  8,300
  8,773
  9,267
  9,783
  10,322
  10,885
  11,473
Change in working capital, $m
  34
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
Cash from operations, $m
  1,411
  1,586
  1,771
  1,968
  2,175
  2,392
  2,619
  2,857
  3,104
  3,363
  3,567
  3,846
  4,136
  4,438
  4,751
  5,077
  5,416
  5,768
  6,134
  6,515
  6,912
  7,326
  7,757
  8,206
  8,675
  9,165
  9,676
  10,210
  10,768
  11,351
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -77
  -85
  -94
  -103
  -113
  -123
  -134
  -145
  -156
  -168
  -180
  -193
  -206
  -220
  -234
  -249
  -265
  -281
  -298
  -315
  -333
  -353
  -372
  -393
  -415
  -438
New CAPEX, $m
  -202
  -214
  -227
  -240
  -253
  -266
  -278
  -290
  -303
  -315
  -328
  -341
  -354
  -368
  -383
  -398
  -413
  -430
  -447
  -466
  -485
  -505
  -526
  -549
  -573
  -598
  -624
  -652
  -682
  -713
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -249
  -268
  -288
  -309
  -330
  -351
  -372
  -393
  -416
  -438
  -462
  -486
  -510
  -536
  -563
  -591
  -619
  -650
  -681
  -715
  -750
  -786
  -824
  -864
  -906
  -951
  -996
  -1,045
  -1,097
  -1,151
Free cash flow, $m
  1,161
  1,317
  1,483
  1,658
  1,845
  2,041
  2,247
  2,463
  2,689
  2,924
  3,105
  3,361
  3,626
  3,902
  4,189
  4,487
  4,796
  5,118
  5,453
  5,801
  6,163
  6,540
  6,933
  7,342
  7,769
  8,214
  8,679
  9,164
  9,671
  10,201
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  131
  138
  147
  155
  163
  171
  179
  187
  195
  203
  211
  220
  228
  237
  246
  256
  266
  277
  288
  300
  312
  325
  339
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  131
  138
  147
  155
  163
  171
  179
  187
  195
  203
  211
  220
  228
  237
  246
  256
  266
  277
  288
  300
  312
  325
  339
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,292
  1,455
  1,629
  1,813
  2,008
  2,212
  2,426
  2,650
  2,884
  3,127
  3,317
  3,580
  3,854
  4,139
  4,435
  4,743
  5,063
  5,395
  5,741
  6,101
  6,475
  6,866
  7,272
  7,696
  8,138
  8,600
  9,081
  9,585
  10,110
  10,660
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -457
  -489
  -520
  -549
  -578
  -607
  -635
  -663
  -691
  -720
  -749
  -779
  -809
  -841
  -874
  -908
  -944
  -982
  -1,022
  -1,063
  -1,107
  -1,154
  -1,203
  -1,254
  -1,308
  -1,366
  -1,426
  -1,490
  -1,558
  -1,629
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  357
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,192
  966
  1,109
  1,264
  1,430
  1,605
  1,791
  1,987
  2,192
  2,407
  2,568
  2,802
  3,045
  3,298
  3,561
  3,834
  4,118
  4,413
  4,719
  5,037
  5,368
  5,712
  6,070
  6,442
  6,830
  7,234
  7,655
  8,094
  8,553
  9,031
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,143
  884
  966
  1,041
  1,108
  1,165
  1,210
  1,242
  1,259
  1,262
  1,219
  1,196
  1,158
  1,107
  1,046
  974
  896
  813
  727
  640
  555
  474
  398
  328
  266
  211
  164
  125
  93
  68
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Monster Beverage Corporation, through its subsidiaries, develops, markets, sells, and distributes energy drink beverages and its concentrates in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Finished Products, Concentrate, and Other. The company provides carbonated energy, and non-carbonated dairy based coffee and energy drinks to full service beverage distributors, retail grocery and specialty chains, wholesalers, club stores, drug chains, mass merchandisers, convenience chains, health food distributors, food service customers, and the military; and concentrates and/or beverage bases to authorized bottling and canning operations. Monster Beverage Corporation sells its products under the Monster Energy, Nalu, Monster Rehab, NOS, Monster Energy Extra Strength Nitrous Technology, Full Throttle, Java Monster, Burn, Muscle Monster, Mother, Mega Monster Energy, Ultra, Punch Monster, Play and Power Play, Juice Monster, Gladiator, M3, Relentless, √úbermonster, Samurai, BU, and BPM brands. The company was formerly known as Hansen Natural Corporation and changed its name to Monster Beverage Corporation in January 2012. Monster Beverage Corporation was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Corona, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

MNST stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MNST stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3807 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Monster Beverage Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Monster Beverage Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MNST stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MNST is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Monster Beverage Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Monster Beverage Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MNST stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MNST stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Monster Beverage Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Monster Beverage Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MNST stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MNST are equal to 37.4%.

Life of production assets of 45.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Monster Beverage Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MNST is equal to 6.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3610.901 million for Monster Beverage Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 543.222 million for Monster Beverage Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Monster Beverage Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $31.1 billion.

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