Intrinsic value of Manitex International, Inc. - MNTX

Previous Close

$7.37

  Intrinsic Value

$4.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-40%

Previous close

$7.37

 
Intrinsic value

$4.46

 
Up/down potential

-40%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MNTX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  230
  247
  265
  284
  304
  324
  346
  368
  391
  415
  440
  466
  493
  521
  550
  581
  613
  647
  682
  719
  757
  798
  840
  884
  930
  979
  1,029
  1,083
  1,138
  1,197
Variable operating expenses, $m
  174
  187
  200
  214
  228
  243
  258
  274
  291
  308
  319
  338
  358
  378
  399
  422
  445
  470
  495
  522
  550
  579
  610
  642
  675
  710
  747
  786
  826
  869
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  54
  55
  57
  58
  59
  60
  62
  63
  64
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  100
  102
Total operating expenses, $m
  228
  242
  257
  272
  287
  303
  320
  337
  355
  374
  386
  407
  428
  450
  472
  497
  522
  548
  575
  604
  634
  665
  697
  731
  766
  803
  842
  883
  926
  971
Operating income, $m
  1
  5
  9
  13
  17
  21
  26
  30
  35
  40
  53
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  91
  99
  107
  115
  124
  133
  143
  153
  164
  175
  187
  199
  213
  226
EBITDA, $m
  12
  16
  20
  24
  29
  33
  38
  43
  48
  54
  60
  66
  72
  79
  86
  93
  101
  109
  117
  126
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  202
  215
  229
  244
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
Earnings before tax, $m
  -5
  -2
  1
  4
  7
  11
  14
  18
  22
  26
  38
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  68
  74
  81
  87
  94
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  145
  155
  166
  177
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
Net income, $m
  -5
  -2
  1
  3
  5
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  28
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  243
  261
  281
  301
  321
  343
  365
  389
  413
  438
  465
  492
  521
  551
  582
  614
  648
  684
  721
  760
  801
  843
  888
  934
  983
  1,035
  1,088
  1,144
  1,203
  1,265
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  243
  261
  281
  301
  321
  343
  365
  389
  413
  438
  465
  492
  521
  551
  582
  614
  648
  684
  721
  760
  801
  843
  888
  934
  983
  1,035
  1,088
  1,144
  1,203
  1,265
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.947
  0.946
  0.943
  0.944
  0.947
  0.945
  0.948
  0.946
  0.947
  0.947
  0.946
  0.947
  0.946
  0.946
  0.945
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.945
  0.947
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.947
  0.946
  0.946
Average production assets, $m
  63
  68
  72
  78
  83
  89
  94
  100
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  159
  167
  177
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  296
  311
  327
Working capital, $m
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  206
  217
  228
  240
  253
  266
  279
  294
  309
Total debt, $m
  108
  121
  134
  147
  162
  176
  192
  208
  224
  242
  260
  279
  298
  319
  340
  362
  386
  410
  435
  462
  490
  519
  550
  582
  615
  650
  687
  725
  766
  808
Total liabilities, $m
  166
  179
  192
  206
  220
  235
  250
  266
  283
  300
  318
  337
  357
  377
  399
  421
  444
  468
  494
  521
  548
  578
  608
  640
  674
  709
  745
  784
  824
  867
Total equity, $m
  77
  82
  88
  95
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  164
  173
  183
  194
  204
  215
  227
  239
  252
  266
  280
  294
  310
  326
  343
  361
  379
  399
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  243
  261
  280
  301
  321
  343
  365
  388
  413
  438
  464
  492
  521
  550
  582
  615
  648
  683
  721
  760
  800
  844
  888
  934
  984
  1,035
  1,088
  1,145
  1,203
  1,266
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.410
  1.460
  1.510
  1.560
  1.600
  1.630
  1.670
  1.700
  1.730
  1.750
  1.770
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
  1.860
  1.870
  1.890
  1.900
  1.920
  1.930
  1.940
  1.950
  1.970
  1.980
  1.990
  2.000
  2.000
  2.010
  2.020
  2.030
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -5
  -2
  1
  3
  5
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  28
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
Funds from operations, $m
  6
  9
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  138
  147
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Cash from operations, $m
  2
  5
  7
  10
  12
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  46
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
Free cash flow, $m
  -6
  -3
  -1
  1
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  14
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  54
  58
  63
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  8
  5
  3
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  22
  21
  18
  17
  15
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  33
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  133
  142
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  6
  9
  11
  11
  12
  13
  15
  18
  21
  23
  24
  28
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  122
Discount rate, %
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  6
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  93.3
  88.8
  86.1
  84.6
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1

Manitex International, Inc. is a provider of engineered specialty lifting and loading products. The Company operates in three business segments: the Lifting Equipment segment, the A.S.V., LLC (ASV) segment and the Equipment Distribution segment. Through its Lifting Equipment segment, the Company designs, manufactures and distributes a diverse group of products that serve various functions and are used in a range of industries. In the ASV segment, the Company manufactures a line of compact rubber tracked and skid steer loaders. In the Equipment Distribution segment, the Company markets products used primarily for infrastructure development and commercial construction applications that include road and bridge construction, general contracting, roofing, scrap handling, and sign construction and maintenance. The Company, through its subsidiary Manitex, Inc., markets a line of boom trucks, truck cranes and sign cranes.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Manitex International, Inc. (MNTX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.4
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -29.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -23.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 95.9%
Total Debt to Equity 128.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Return On Total Capital -16.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.7%
Return On Equity -38.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
EBITDA Margin -2.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Operating Margin -0.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Net Profit Margin -12.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Effective Tax Rate 5.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

MNTX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MNTX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $213 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Manitex International, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Manitex International, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MNTX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for MNTX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Manitex International, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Manitex International, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MNTX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $53 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MNTX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.4% for Manitex International, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Manitex International, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MNTX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MNTX are equal to 27.3%.

Life of production assets of 18.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Manitex International, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MNTX is equal to 25.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $70.845 million for Manitex International, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.622 million for Manitex International, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Manitex International, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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