Intrinsic value of Manitex International - MNTX

Previous Close

$7.50

  Intrinsic Value

$18.70

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+149%

Previous close

$7.50

 
Intrinsic value

$18.70

 
Up/down potential

+149%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of MNTX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  22.80
  21.02
  19.42
  17.98
  16.68
  15.51
  14.46
  13.51
  12.66
  11.90
  11.21
  10.59
  10.03
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
Revenue, $m
  262
  317
  378
  446
  521
  601
  688
  781
  880
  985
  1,095
  1,211
  1,333
  1,460
  1,592
  1,730
  1,874
  2,023
  2,178
  2,339
  2,507
  2,681
  2,862
  3,051
  3,246
  3,450
  3,662
  3,884
  4,114
  4,354
Variable operating expenses, $m
  197
  237
  282
  331
  385
  444
  507
  575
  647
  723
  795
  879
  968
  1,060
  1,156
  1,256
  1,360
  1,469
  1,581
  1,698
  1,820
  1,947
  2,078
  2,215
  2,357
  2,505
  2,659
  2,819
  2,987
  3,161
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  54
  55
  57
  58
  59
  60
  62
  63
  64
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  100
  102
Total operating expenses, $m
  251
  292
  339
  389
  444
  504
  569
  638
  711
  789
  862
  948
  1,038
  1,132
  1,229
  1,331
  1,437
  1,547
  1,661
  1,780
  1,904
  2,033
  2,165
  2,304
  2,448
  2,598
  2,754
  2,916
  3,087
  3,263
Operating income, $m
  10
  24
  40
  57
  76
  97
  119
  144
  169
  197
  233
  263
  295
  328
  363
  399
  437
  476
  517
  559
  603
  649
  697
  747
  798
  852
  908
  967
  1,028
  1,091
EBITDA, $m
  21
  36
  53
  71
  91
  113
  137
  163
  190
  219
  249
  281
  315
  350
  386
  425
  464
  506
  549
  594
  640
  689
  739
  792
  846
  903
  962
  1,024
  1,088
  1,155
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  90
  97
  105
  112
  121
  129
  138
  147
  156
  166
  176
  187
Earnings before tax, $m
  4
  16
  29
  43
  59
  77
  95
  115
  137
  159
  191
  216
  242
  270
  299
  329
  360
  393
  427
  462
  499
  537
  576
  618
  661
  705
  752
  801
  851
  904
Tax expense, $m
  1
  4
  8
  12
  16
  21
  26
  31
  37
  43
  52
  58
  65
  73
  81
  89
  97
  106
  115
  125
  135
  145
  156
  167
  178
  190
  203
  216
  230
  244
Net income, $m
  3
  11
  21
  32
  43
  56
  70
  84
  100
  116
  139
  158
  177
  197
  218
  240
  263
  287
  311
  337
  364
  392
  421
  451
  482
  515
  549
  584
  621
  660

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  277
  335
  400
  472
  550
  636
  728
  826
  931
  1,041
  1,158
  1,280
  1,409
  1,543
  1,683
  1,829
  1,981
  2,138
  2,303
  2,473
  2,650
  2,834
  3,026
  3,225
  3,432
  3,647
  3,872
  4,105
  4,349
  4,603
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  277
  335
  400
  472
  550
  636
  728
  826
  931
  1,041
  1,158
  1,280
  1,409
  1,543
  1,683
  1,829
  1,981
  2,138
  2,303
  2,473
  2,650
  2,834
  3,026
  3,225
  3,432
  3,647
  3,872
  4,105
  4,349
  4,603
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.946
  0.946
  0.945
  0.945
  0.947
  0.945
  0.945
  0.946
  0.945
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
  0.946
Average production assets, $m
  71
  86
  103
  122
  142
  164
  188
  213
  240
  269
  299
  331
  364
  399
  435
  472
  512
  552
  595
  639
  684
  732
  781
  833
  886
  942
  1,000
  1,060
  1,123
  1,189
Working capital, $m
  68
  82
  98
  115
  134
  155
  178
  202
  227
  254
  283
  313
  344
  377
  411
  446
  483
  522
  562
  604
  647
  692
  738
  787
  838
  890
  945
  1,002
  1,061
  1,123
Total debt, $m
  131
  171
  215
  265
  318
  377
  440
  507
  579
  655
  735
  819
  907
  999
  1,094
  1,194
  1,298
  1,406
  1,519
  1,636
  1,757
  1,883
  2,014
  2,150
  2,292
  2,440
  2,594
  2,754
  2,920
  3,094
Total liabilities, $m
  189
  229
  274
  323
  377
  435
  498
  566
  637
  713
  793
  877
  965
  1,057
  1,153
  1,253
  1,357
  1,465
  1,577
  1,694
  1,815
  1,942
  2,073
  2,209
  2,351
  2,498
  2,652
  2,812
  2,979
  3,153
Total equity, $m
  87
  105
  126
  149
  173
  200
  229
  260
  293
  328
  365
  403
  444
  486
  530
  576
  624
  674
  725
  779
  835
  893
  953
  1,016
  1,081
  1,149
  1,220
  1,293
  1,370
  1,450
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  276
  334
  400
  472
  550
  635
  727
  826
  930
  1,041
  1,158
  1,280
  1,409
  1,543
  1,683
  1,829
  1,981
  2,139
  2,302
  2,473
  2,650
  2,835
  3,026
  3,225
  3,432
  3,647
  3,872
  4,105
  4,349
  4,603
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.500
  1.620
  1.710
  1.780
  1.840
  1.880
  1.920
  1.950
  1.980
  2.000
  2.010
  2.030
  2.040
  2.050
  2.060
  2.070
  2.080
  2.090
  2.090
  2.100
  2.100
  2.110
  2.110
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
  2.130
  2.130
  2.130
  2.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315
  0.315

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  11
  21
  32
  43
  56
  70
  84
  100
  116
  139
  158
  177
  197
  218
  240
  263
  287
  311
  337
  364
  392
  421
  451
  482
  515
  549
  584
  621
  660
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  16
  18
  20
  22
  23
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
Funds from operations, $m
  14
  24
  34
  46
  58
  72
  87
  103
  120
  138
  156
  176
  197
  219
  242
  266
  291
  317
  344
  372
  401
  431
  463
  496
  530
  566
  603
  642
  682
  724
Change in working capital, $m
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
Cash from operations, $m
  2
  9
  18
  28
  39
  51
  65
  79
  95
  111
  127
  146
  165
  186
  208
  230
  254
  278
  304
  330
  358
  386
  416
  447
  480
  513
  548
  585
  623
  662
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -127
Free cash flow, $m
  -15
  -10
  -3
  4
  12
  22
  32
  44
  56
  70
  82
  98
  114
  132
  150
  169
  189
  210
  231
  254
  277
  302
  327
  354
  381
  410
  439
  470
  503
  536
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  35
  40
  45
  49
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  13
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  48
  47
  45
  49
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  34
  37
  41
  53
  66
  80
  95
  111
  128
  146
  162
  182
  202
  224
  246
  269
  293
  318
  344
  371
  399
  428
  458
  490
  523
  557
  593
  630
  669
  710
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  18
  19
  21
  30
  41
  53
  66
  80
  95
  111
  126
  143
  162
  181
  202
  223
  245
  268
  292
  317
  343
  370
  398
  427
  458
  489
  522
  557
  593
  630
Discount rate, %
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  16
  16
  16
  21
  25
  28
  30
  31
  31
  30
  28
  26
  23
  20
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  91.6
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3
  88.3

Manitex International, Inc. is a provider of engineered specialty lifting and loading products. The Company operates in three business segments: the Lifting Equipment segment, the A.S.V., LLC (ASV) segment and the Equipment Distribution segment. Through its Lifting Equipment segment, the Company designs, manufactures and distributes a diverse group of products that serve various functions and are used in a range of industries. In the ASV segment, the Company manufactures a line of compact rubber tracked and skid steer loaders. In the Equipment Distribution segment, the Company markets products used primarily for infrastructure development and commercial construction applications that include road and bridge construction, general contracting, roofing, scrap handling, and sign construction and maintenance. The Company, through its subsidiary Manitex, Inc., markets a line of boom trucks, truck cranes and sign cranes.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Manitex International (MNTX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.5
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -30.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -24.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 95.9%
Total Debt to Equity 128.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Return On Total Capital -16.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.7%
Return On Equity -38.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
EBITDA Margin -2.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Operating Margin -0.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Net Profit Margin -12.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Effective Tax Rate 5.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

MNTX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MNTX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $213.112 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Manitex International. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Manitex International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MNTX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for MNTX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Manitex International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Manitex International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MNTX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $53 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MNTX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.4% for Manitex International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Manitex International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MNTX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MNTX are equal to 27.3%.

Life of production assets of 18.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Manitex International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MNTX is equal to 25.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $70.845 million for Manitex International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.607 million for Manitex International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Manitex International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
TEX Terex 30.46 3.17  str.sell
ASV ASV Holdings 3.29 7.83  buy
MTW Manitowoc 18.56 1.65  str.sell
CAT Caterpillar 125.10 601.98  str.buy

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Jeff Auxier Comments on Manitex International   [Nov-08-18 04:09PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Manitex: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-01-18 05:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Manitex: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-07-18 04:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ When Will Manitex International Inc (NASDAQ:MNTX) Breakeven?   [May-10-18 04:27PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Manitex: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 04:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Manitex reports 4Q loss   [Mar-28-18 05:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Manitex reports 3Q loss   [Feb-06-18 04:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for December 19th   [Dec-19-17 10:05AM  Zacks]
▶ Manitex reports 2Q loss   [Aug-05-17 01:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Manitex reports 1Q loss   [May-04-17 05:54PM  Associated Press]

CONTACT US       ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2018. All rigths reserved.