Intrinsic value of MobileIron, Inc. - MOBL

Previous Close

$5.47

  Intrinsic Value

$5.63

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+3%

Previous close

$5.47

 
Intrinsic value

$5.63

 
Up/down potential

+3%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of MOBL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.80
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
Revenue, $m
  213
  234
  255
  278
  302
  326
  352
  378
  406
  434
  464
  495
  527
  561
  595
  632
  669
  709
  750
  793
  837
  884
  933
  984
  1,037
  1,093
  1,152
  1,213
  1,277
  1,344
Variable operating expenses, $m
  55
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  97
  105
  112
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
  162
  172
  182
  192
  203
  215
  227
  239
  252
  266
  280
  295
  311
  327
  345
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  194
  198
  203
  207
  212
  217
  221
  226
  231
  236
  241
  247
  252
  258
  263
  269
  275
  281
  287
  294
  300
  307
  313
  320
  327
  335
  342
  349
  357
  365
Total operating expenses, $m
  249
  258
  269
  279
  290
  301
  312
  323
  336
  348
  360
  374
  387
  402
  416
  431
  447
  463
  479
  497
  515
  534
  552
  572
  593
  615
  637
  660
  684
  710
Operating income, $m
  -36
  -25
  -13
  -1
  12
  25
  40
  55
  70
  86
  104
  121
  140
  159
  179
  201
  223
  246
  270
  296
  323
  351
  380
  411
  444
  478
  514
  552
  592
  634
EBITDA, $m
  -34
  -22
  -10
  3
  16
  30
  44
  59
  75
  91
  109
  127
  146
  165
  186
  207
  230
  254
  279
  305
  332
  361
  391
  422
  455
  490
  527
  566
  606
  649
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  45
  47
Earnings before tax, $m
  -36
  -26
  -15
  -4
  8
  21
  34
  48
  62
  77
  93
  109
  127
  144
  163
  183
  203
  225
  248
  271
  296
  323
  350
  379
  409
  441
  475
  510
  548
  587
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  6
  9
  13
  17
  21
  25
  30
  34
  39
  44
  49
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  95
  102
  111
  119
  128
  138
  148
  158
Net income, $m
  -36
  -26
  -15
  -4
  6
  15
  25
  35
  45
  56
  68
  80
  92
  105
  119
  134
  149
  164
  181
  198
  216
  235
  256
  277
  299
  322
  347
  373
  400
  428

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  232
  255
  279
  303
  329
  356
  383
  412
  442
  474
  506
  540
  575
  611
  649
  689
  730
  773
  818
  864
  913
  964
  1,017
  1,073
  1,131
  1,192
  1,256
  1,322
  1,392
  1,465
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  232
  255
  279
  303
  329
  356
  383
  412
  442
  474
  506
  540
  575
  611
  649
  689
  730
  773
  818
  864
  913
  964
  1,017
  1,073
  1,131
  1,192
  1,256
  1,322
  1,392
  1,465
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.918
  0.918
  0.914
  0.917
  0.918
  0.916
  0.919
  0.917
  0.919
  0.916
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.918
  0.917
  0.917
  0.916
  0.917
  0.917
  0.918
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
  0.918
  0.917
  0.917
Average production assets, $m
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
Working capital, $m
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -157
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -208
  -219
  -231
  -244
  -257
  -271
  -285
  -300
  -316
Total debt, $m
  16
  33
  51
  69
  88
  108
  129
  150
  172
  196
  220
  245
  271
  298
  326
  355
  386
  418
  451
  486
  522
  560
  600
  641
  684
  729
  777
  826
  878
  933
Total liabilities, $m
  172
  189
  207
  225
  244
  264
  285
  306
  329
  352
  376
  401
  427
  454
  482
  512
  542
  574
  608
  642
  679
  716
  756
  797
  841
  886
  933
  983
  1,034
  1,089
Total equity, $m
  60
  65
  72
  78
  85
  91
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  188
  199
  210
  222
  235
  248
  261
  276
  291
  306
  323
  340
  358
  377
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  232
  254
  279
  303
  329
  355
  384
  412
  443
  474
  506
  540
  575
  611
  649
  689
  730
  773
  818
  864
  914
  964
  1,017
  1,073
  1,132
  1,192
  1,256
  1,323
  1,392
  1,466
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.270
  0.500
  0.710
  0.890
  1.040
  1.180
  1.310
  1.420
  1.520
  1.610
  1.690
  1.760
  1.830
  1.900
  1.950
  2.010
  2.060
  2.100
  2.150
  2.190
  2.230
  2.260
  2.290
  2.320
  2.350
  2.380
  2.410
  2.430
  2.450
  2.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -36
  -26
  -15
  -4
  6
  15
  25
  35
  45
  56
  68
  80
  92
  105
  119
  134
  149
  164
  181
  198
  216
  235
  256
  277
  299
  322
  347
  373
  400
  428
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Funds from operations, $m
  -34
  -23
  -12
  0
  10
  19
  29
  39
  50
  61
  73
  85
  98
  112
  126
  140
  156
  172
  189
  207
  226
  245
  266
  288
  310
  334
  359
  386
  414
  443
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
Cash from operations, $m
  -29
  -18
  -7
  5
  15
  25
  35
  46
  57
  68
  80
  93
  106
  120
  134
  149
  165
  181
  199
  217
  236
  256
  277
  299
  323
  347
  373
  400
  429
  459
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
Free cash flow, $m
  -32
  -22
  -11
  1
  11
  20
  30
  40
  51
  62
  74
  86
  99
  112
  126
  140
  156
  172
  189
  206
  225
  244
  265
  286
  309
  333
  358
  384
  412
  441
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  42
  32
  21
  10
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  58
  49
  39
  28
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  40
  51
  62
  73
  85
  98
  111
  125
  139
  154
  170
  186
  204
  222
  241
  261
  282
  304
  328
  352
  378
  405
  434
  464
  495
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -42
  -32
  -21
  -10
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -16
  -5
  7
  19
  24
  33
  44
  54
  66
  77
  89
  102
  116
  130
  144
  160
  176
  193
  210
  229
  249
  269
  291
  313
  337
  362
  389
  417
  446
  477
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -15
  -4
  6
  16
  19
  24
  29
  34
  38
  41
  42
  44
  44
  44
  42
  41
  38
  35
  32
  29
  26
  22
  19
  16
  13
  11
  8
  6
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  92.8
  88.1
  85.3
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1
  84.1

MobileIron, Inc. (MobileIron) provides a mobile information technology (IT) platform for enterprises to manage and secure mobile applications, content and devices. The Company's solution provides enterprise security. The MobileIron Platform combines security and enterprise mobility management (EMM) tools, including mobile device management (MDM), mobile application management (MAM), and mobile content management (MCM) capabilities. The Company offers EMM tools, including EMM platform, cloud security with MobileIron Access, Windows security with MobileIron Bridge and applications. MobileIron offers its customers the flexibility to deploy its solution as a cloud service or as on-premises software. Its applications include Apps@Work, Docs@Work, Web@Work, Help@Work, MobileIron Tunnel, MobileIron Rooms, MobileIron AppConnect and AppConnect Ecosystem. The Company serves a range of industries, such as financial services, government, healthcare and legal.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MobileIron, Inc. (MOBL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -7.3
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 11.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -40.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -32.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -42.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -43.7%
Return On Total Capital -122.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -96%
Return On Equity -122.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -96.6%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 81.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 81.6%
EBITDA Margin -37.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.1%
Operating Margin -40.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -47.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -40.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -47.6%
Net Profit Margin -40.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -48.1%
Effective Tax Rate -1.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

MOBL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MOBL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $193 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MobileIron, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of MobileIron, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MOBL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MOBL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MobileIron, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MobileIron, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MOBL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 25.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $190 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MOBL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for MobileIron, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MobileIron, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MOBL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MOBL are equal to 5.5%.

Life of production assets of 3.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MobileIron, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MOBL is equal to -23.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $54.117 million for MobileIron, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 106.793 million for MobileIron, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MobileIron, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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