Intrinsic value of MobileIron - MOBL

Previous Close

$4.93

  Intrinsic Value

$0.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

Previous close

$4.93

 
Intrinsic value

$0.15

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MOBL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  189
  202
  216
  230
  244
  260
  275
  292
  309
  327
  346
  366
  386
  407
  430
  453
  477
  503
  530
  558
  587
  618
  650
  684
  719
  756
  795
  835
  878
  923
Variable operating expenses, $m
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  131
  138
  146
  153
  161
  170
  179
  188
  198
  208
  218
  230
  241
  254
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  192
  196
  201
  205
  210
  214
  219
  224
  229
  234
  239
  244
  249
  255
  261
  266
  272
  278
  284
  291
  297
  303
  310
  317
  324
  331
  338
  346
  353
  361
Total operating expenses, $m
  245
  252
  261
  269
  278
  286
  295
  305
  315
  324
  334
  344
  355
  367
  379
  391
  403
  416
  430
  444
  458
  473
  489
  505
  522
  539
  556
  576
  594
  615
Operating income, $m
  -56
  -50
  -45
  -39
  -33
  -27
  -20
  -13
  -5
  3
  12
  21
  30
  40
  51
  62
  74
  87
  100
  114
  129
  144
  161
  179
  197
  217
  238
  260
  283
  308
EBITDA, $m
  -53
  -48
  -42
  -36
  -30
  -23
  -16
  -9
  -1
  7
  16
  25
  35
  45
  56
  67
  79
  92
  106
  120
  135
  151
  168
  186
  206
  226
  247
  269
  293
  319
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
Earnings before tax, $m
  -56
  -51
  -46
  -41
  -35
  -29
  -23
  -16
  -9
  -2
  6
  14
  23
  32
  42
  52
  63
  75
  87
  100
  114
  129
  144
  161
  178
  196
  216
  236
  258
  281
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  4
  6
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
Net income, $m
  -56
  -51
  -46
  -41
  -35
  -29
  -23
  -16
  -9
  -2
  5
  11
  17
  24
  31
  38
  46
  55
  64
  73
  83
  94
  105
  117
  130
  143
  157
  172
  188
  205

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  198
  212
  226
  241
  256
  272
  289
  306
  324
  343
  363
  383
  405
  427
  450
  475
  500
  527
  555
  585
  615
  647
  681
  716
  753
  792
  833
  876
  920
  967
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  198
  212
  226
  241
  256
  272
  289
  306
  324
  343
  363
  383
  405
  427
  450
  475
  500
  527
  555
  585
  615
  647
  681
  716
  753
  792
  833
  876
  920
  967
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.955
  0.953
  0.956
  0.954
  0.953
  0.956
  0.952
  0.954
  0.954
  0.953
  0.953
  0.956
  0.953
  0.953
  0.956
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.955
  0.954
  0.954
  0.955
  0.954
  0.955
  0.955
  0.955
  0.954
  0.953
  0.954
  0.954
Average production assets, $m
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
Working capital, $m
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -178
  -187
Total debt, $m
  9
  18
  28
  38
  48
  59
  71
  82
  95
  107
  121
  134
  149
  164
  180
  197
  214
  232
  251
  271
  292
  313
  336
  360
  385
  412
  439
  468
  498
  530
Total liabilities, $m
  134
  143
  153
  163
  173
  184
  195
  207
  219
  232
  245
  259
  274
  289
  305
  321
  339
  357
  376
  396
  417
  438
  461
  485
  510
  536
  564
  593
  623
  655
Total equity, $m
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  162
  170
  179
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  198
  211
  226
  241
  256
  272
  288
  306
  324
  343
  362
  383
  405
  427
  450
  474
  501
  527
  555
  585
  616
  647
  681
  716
  753
  792
  833
  876
  920
  967
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.140
  0.270
  0.380
  0.490
  0.590
  0.670
  0.760
  0.830
  0.900
  0.970
  1.030
  1.090
  1.140
  1.190
  1.240
  1.280
  1.320
  1.360
  1.400
  1.430
  1.470
  1.500
  1.530
  1.560
  1.580
  1.610
  1.630
  1.650
  1.680
  1.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -56
  -51
  -46
  -41
  -35
  -29
  -23
  -16
  -9
  -2
  5
  11
  17
  24
  31
  38
  46
  55
  64
  73
  83
  94
  105
  117
  130
  143
  157
  172
  188
  205
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Funds from operations, $m
  -53
  -48
  -43
  -37
  -32
  -26
  -19
  -13
  -5
  2
  8
  15
  21
  28
  36
  43
  52
  60
  70
  80
  90
  101
  113
  125
  138
  152
  167
  182
  198
  216
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Cash from operations, $m
  -50
  -45
  -40
  -35
  -29
  -23
  -16
  -9
  -2
  6
  12
  19
  25
  33
  40
  48
  57
  66
  75
  85
  96
  107
  119
  132
  145
  159
  174
  190
  207
  225
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
Free cash flow, $m
  -53
  -48
  -43
  -38
  -32
  -26
  -20
  -13
  -6
  1
  7
  14
  20
  27
  34
  42
  50
  59
  68
  78
  88
  99
  110
  122
  135
  149
  164
  179
  195
  212
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  60
  55
  50
  45
  40
  34
  28
  22
  15
  8
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  69
  64
  60
  55
  50
  45
  39
  34
  27
  21
  15
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  28
  35
  42
  50
  59
  67
  77
  87
  97
  109
  121
  133
  146
  160
  175
  191
  208
  225
  244
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -60
  -55
  -50
  -45
  -40
  -34
  -28
  -22
  -15
  -8
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -44
  -39
  -34
  -28
  -22
  -15
  -9
  -2
  6
  14
  16
  21
  28
  35
  43
  51
  59
  68
  78
  88
  99
  110
  122
  135
  149
  163
  178
  194
  211
  229
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -42
  -36
  -29
  -23
  -17
  -11
  -6
  -1
  3
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  88.3
  79.3
  72.3
  66.9
  62.7
  59.4
  57.0
  55.3
  54.2
  53.7
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5
  53.5

MobileIron, Inc. (MobileIron) provides a mobile information technology (IT) platform for enterprises to manage and secure mobile applications, content and devices. The Company's solution provides enterprise security. The MobileIron Platform combines security and enterprise mobility management (EMM) tools, including mobile device management (MDM), mobile application management (MAM), and mobile content management (MCM) capabilities. The Company offers EMM tools, including EMM platform, cloud security with MobileIron Access, Windows security with MobileIron Bridge and applications. MobileIron offers its customers the flexibility to deploy its solution as a cloud service or as on-premises software. Its applications include Apps@Work, Docs@Work, Web@Work, Help@Work, MobileIron Tunnel, MobileIron Rooms, MobileIron AppConnect and AppConnect Ecosystem. The Company serves a range of industries, such as financial services, government, healthcare and legal.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MobileIron (MOBL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -6.6
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 10.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -36.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -29.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -42.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -43.7%
Return On Total Capital -122.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -96%
Return On Equity -122.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -96.6%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 81.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 81.6%
EBITDA Margin -37.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.1%
Operating Margin -40.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -47.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -40.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -47.6%
Net Profit Margin -40.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -48.1%
Effective Tax Rate -1.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

MOBL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MOBL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $176.491 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MobileIron. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of MobileIron. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MOBL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MOBL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MobileIron, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MobileIron.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MOBL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 27.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $188 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MOBL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for MobileIron.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MobileIron. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MOBL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MOBL are equal to 5.7%.

Life of production assets of 3.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MobileIron operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MOBL is equal to -20.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $59.552 million for MobileIron - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 92.181 million for MobileIron is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MobileIron at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ MobileIron: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Tech Stocks for Growth Investors to Buy Now   [Sep-27-18 04:18PM  Zacks]
▶ MobileIron: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-31-18 05:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ MobileIron, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [02:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ MobileIron Appoints Scott Hill as Chief Financial Officer   [Jul-10-18 08:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ When Will MobileIron Inc (NASDAQ:MOBL) Become Profitable?   [Jun-27-18 11:59AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ MobileIron: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ MobileIron and Lenovo Join Forces to Enable Modern Work   [Apr-12-18 06:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Sohail Parekh Joins MobileIron to Lead Engineering   [Mar-19-18 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why MobileIron Inc. Stock Soared Friday   [Feb-09-18 12:43PM  Motley Fool]
▶ MobileIron reports 4Q loss   [Feb-08-18 06:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ MobileIron, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:10PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Why MobileIron Stock Popped on Tuesday   [Jan-31-18 09:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MobileIron, Inc. : November 9, 2017   [Nov-09-17 12:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ShoCard Announces Bob Tinker as Board Member   [Nov-01-17 09:06AM  Marketwired]
▶ MobileIron reports 3Q loss   [Oct-31-17 04:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ MobileIron, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [09:25AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ [$$] MobileIron Loses Its Head   [Oct-19-17 01:57PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Why MobileIron, Inc. Stock Dropped Today   [03:46PM  Motley Fool]
▶ MobileIron shares fall on CEO leaving, revenue forecast   [Oct-17-17 04:43PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Why MobileIron, Inc. Stock Popped Today   [Oct-05-17 04:52PM  Motley Fool]

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