Intrinsic value of Molina Healthcare - MOH

Previous Close

$133.92

  Intrinsic Value

$273.41

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+104%

Previous close

$133.92

 
Intrinsic value

$273.41

 
Up/down potential

+104%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of MOH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.80
  11.12
  10.51
  9.96
  9.46
  9.02
  8.61
  8.25
  7.93
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
Revenue, $m
  22,229
  24,701
  27,297
  30,015
  32,854
  35,816
  38,902
  42,112
  45,450
  48,920
  52,526
  56,273
  60,168
  64,216
  68,426
  72,805
  77,363
  82,108
  87,051
  92,204
  97,576
  103,181
  109,031
  115,140
  121,521
  128,190
  135,163
  142,456
  150,085
  158,070
Variable operating expenses, $m
  21,848
  24,275
  26,823
  29,491
  32,279
  35,187
  38,216
  41,367
  44,645
  48,051
  51,566
  55,244
  59,068
  63,042
  67,175
  71,474
  75,948
  80,607
  85,460
  90,518
  95,792
  101,294
  107,038
  113,034
  119,299
  125,847
  132,692
  139,851
  147,341
  155,180
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  21,848
  24,275
  26,823
  29,491
  32,279
  35,187
  38,216
  41,367
  44,645
  48,051
  51,566
  55,244
  59,068
  63,042
  67,175
  71,474
  75,948
  80,607
  85,460
  90,518
  95,792
  101,294
  107,038
  113,034
  119,299
  125,847
  132,692
  139,851
  147,341
  155,180
Operating income, $m
  381
  426
  474
  523
  575
  629
  686
  744
  805
  869
  960
  1,029
  1,100
  1,174
  1,251
  1,331
  1,414
  1,501
  1,592
  1,686
  1,784
  1,886
  1,993
  2,105
  2,222
  2,344
  2,471
  2,604
  2,744
  2,890
EBITDA, $m
  509
  565
  625
  687
  752
  820
  890
  964
  1,040
  1,119
  1,202
  1,288
  1,377
  1,469
  1,566
  1,666
  1,770
  1,879
  1,992
  2,110
  2,233
  2,361
  2,495
  2,635
  2,781
  2,933
  3,093
  3,260
  3,434
  3,617
Interest expense (income), $m
  66
  94
  142
  191
  244
  299
  356
  416
  479
  543
  611
  681
  754
  830
  908
  990
  1,075
  1,164
  1,256
  1,352
  1,452
  1,556
  1,665
  1,778
  1,896
  2,020
  2,149
  2,284
  2,424
  2,572
  2,726
Earnings before tax, $m
  287
  285
  282
  279
  276
  273
  270
  266
  262
  258
  279
  275
  270
  266
  261
  256
  250
  245
  240
  234
  228
  222
  215
  209
  202
  195
  188
  180
  172
  164
Tax expense, $m
  77
  77
  76
  75
  75
  74
  73
  72
  71
  70
  75
  74
  73
  72
  70
  69
  68
  66
  65
  63
  62
  60
  58
  56
  55
  53
  51
  49
  46
  44
Net income, $m
  209
  208
  206
  204
  202
  199
  197
  194
  191
  188
  204
  201
  197
  194
  190
  187
  183
  179
  175
  171
  166
  162
  157
  152
  147
  142
  137
  131
  126
  120

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,527
  9,475
  10,471
  11,513
  12,602
  13,739
  14,922
  16,153
  17,434
  18,765
  20,148
  21,585
  23,079
  24,632
  26,247
  27,927
  29,675
  31,495
  33,391
  35,368
  37,428
  39,578
  41,822
  44,166
  46,613
  49,172
  51,846
  54,644
  57,570
  60,633
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,527
  9,475
  10,471
  11,513
  12,602
  13,739
  14,922
  16,153
  17,434
  18,765
  20,148
  21,585
  23,079
  24,632
  26,247
  27,927
  29,675
  31,495
  33,391
  35,368
  37,428
  39,578
  41,822
  44,166
  46,613
  49,172
  51,846
  54,644
  57,570
  60,633
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
  2.607
Average production assets, $m
  1,023
  1,136
  1,256
  1,381
  1,511
  1,648
  1,789
  1,937
  2,091
  2,250
  2,416
  2,589
  2,768
  2,954
  3,148
  3,349
  3,559
  3,777
  4,004
  4,241
  4,488
  4,746
  5,015
  5,296
  5,590
  5,897
  6,217
  6,553
  6,904
  7,271
Working capital, $m
  -2,868
  -3,186
  -3,521
  -3,872
  -4,238
  -4,620
  -5,018
  -5,432
  -5,863
  -6,311
  -6,776
  -7,259
  -7,762
  -8,284
  -8,827
  -9,392
  -9,980
  -10,592
  -11,230
  -11,894
  -12,587
  -13,310
  -14,065
  -14,853
  -15,676
  -16,537
  -17,436
  -18,377
  -19,361
  -20,391
Total debt, $m
  2,283
  3,089
  3,935
  4,821
  5,747
  6,713
  7,719
  8,765
  9,854
  10,985
  12,161
  13,383
  14,652
  15,972
  17,345
  18,773
  20,259
  21,806
  23,418
  25,098
  26,849
  28,677
  30,584
  32,576
  34,656
  36,831
  39,104
  41,482
  43,970
  46,573
Total liabilities, $m
  7,248
  8,054
  8,900
  9,786
  10,712
  11,678
  12,684
  13,730
  14,819
  15,950
  17,126
  18,348
  19,617
  20,937
  22,310
  23,738
  25,224
  26,771
  28,383
  30,063
  31,814
  33,642
  35,549
  37,541
  39,621
  41,796
  44,069
  46,447
  48,935
  51,538
Total equity, $m
  1,279
  1,421
  1,571
  1,727
  1,890
  2,061
  2,238
  2,423
  2,615
  2,815
  3,022
  3,238
  3,462
  3,695
  3,937
  4,189
  4,451
  4,724
  5,009
  5,305
  5,614
  5,937
  6,273
  6,625
  6,992
  7,376
  7,777
  8,197
  8,636
  9,095
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,527
  9,475
  10,471
  11,513
  12,602
  13,739
  14,922
  16,153
  17,434
  18,765
  20,148
  21,586
  23,079
  24,632
  26,247
  27,927
  29,675
  31,495
  33,392
  35,368
  37,428
  39,579
  41,822
  44,166
  46,613
  49,172
  51,846
  54,644
  57,571
  60,633
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.780
  2.170
  2.510
  2.790
  3.040
  3.260
  3.450
  3.620
  3.770
  3.900
  4.020
  4.130
  4.230
  4.320
  4.410
  4.480
  4.550
  4.620
  4.680
  4.730
  4.780
  4.830
  4.880
  4.920
  4.960
  4.990
  5.030
  5.060
  5.090
  5.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  209
  208
  206
  204
  202
  199
  197
  194
  191
  188
  204
  201
  197
  194
  190
  187
  183
  179
  175
  171
  166
  162
  157
  152
  147
  142
  137
  131
  126
  120
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  128
  139
  151
  164
  177
  190
  204
  219
  235
  251
  242
  259
  277
  295
  315
  335
  356
  378
  400
  424
  449
  475
  502
  530
  559
  590
  622
  655
  690
  727
Funds from operations, $m
  337
  347
  357
  367
  378
  390
  401
  413
  426
  439
  445
  459
  474
  489
  505
  522
  539
  557
  575
  595
  615
  637
  659
  682
  706
  732
  759
  787
  816
  847
Change in working capital, $m
  -303
  -319
  -335
  -351
  -366
  -382
  -398
  -414
  -431
  -448
  -465
  -483
  -502
  -522
  -543
  -565
  -588
  -612
  -638
  -665
  -693
  -723
  -755
  -788
  -823
  -860
  -899
  -941
  -984
  -1,030
Cash from operations, $m
  640
  666
  692
  718
  745
  772
  799
  827
  856
  886
  911
  943
  976
  1,012
  1,048
  1,086
  1,127
  1,169
  1,213
  1,259
  1,308
  1,360
  1,413
  1,470
  1,530
  1,592
  1,658
  1,727
  1,800
  1,877
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -91
  -102
  -114
  -126
  -138
  -151
  -165
  -179
  -194
  -209
  -225
  -242
  -259
  -277
  -295
  -315
  -335
  -356
  -378
  -400
  -424
  -449
  -475
  -502
  -530
  -559
  -590
  -622
  -655
  -690
New CAPEX, $m
  -117
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -166
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -201
  -210
  -218
  -227
  -237
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -281
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -335
  -351
  -367
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -208
  -216
  -233
  -251
  -269
  -287
  -307
  -327
  -348
  -369
  -391
  -414
  -438
  -463
  -489
  -516
  -545
  -574
  -605
  -637
  -671
  -707
  -744
  -783
  -824
  -866
  -911
  -957
  -1,006
  -1,057
Free cash flow, $m
  432
  450
  459
  467
  476
  484
  493
  501
  509
  518
  520
  529
  538
  549
  559
  570
  582
  595
  608
  622
  637
  653
  670
  688
  706
  727
  748
  770
  794
  819
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  767
  806
  846
  886
  926
  966
  1,006
  1,047
  1,088
  1,131
  1,176
  1,222
  1,270
  1,320
  1,373
  1,428
  1,486
  1,547
  1,612
  1,680
  1,752
  1,827
  1,907
  1,992
  2,081
  2,174
  2,273
  2,378
  2,488
  2,603
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  11
  4
  15
  27
  39
  52
  65
  79
  94
  110
  126
  143
  161
  179
  199
  220
  241
  264
  288
  313
  340
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  767
  806
  846
  886
  926
  966
  1,006
  1,047
  1,089
  1,142
  1,180
  1,237
  1,297
  1,359
  1,425
  1,493
  1,565
  1,641
  1,722
  1,806
  1,895
  1,988
  2,086
  2,191
  2,301
  2,415
  2,537
  2,666
  2,801
  2,943
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,199
  1,256
  1,305
  1,354
  1,402
  1,450
  1,498
  1,548
  1,598
  1,660
  1,699
  1,766
  1,835
  1,908
  1,984
  2,063
  2,147
  2,236
  2,329
  2,428
  2,531
  2,641
  2,756
  2,878
  3,007
  3,142
  3,285
  3,436
  3,595
  3,762
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -133
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -207
  -216
  -224
  -233
  -242
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -284
  -296
  -309
  -322
  -337
  -351
  -367
  -384
  -401
  -420
  -439
  -459
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  191
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  40
  44
  49
  55
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  120
  128
  137
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  285
  300
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,257
  1,113
  1,156
  1,197
  1,238
  1,280
  1,321
  1,363
  1,406
  1,461
  1,492
  1,550
  1,611
  1,675
  1,741
  1,811
  1,885
  1,963
  2,045
  2,131
  2,222
  2,318
  2,420
  2,527
  2,640
  2,759
  2,884
  3,017
  3,156
  3,303
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,205
  1,019
  1,006
  986
  960
  929
  892
  852
  808
  766
  708
  661
  612
  562
  511
  460
  410
  361
  315
  271
  230
  192
  159
  129
  103
  80
  62
  47
  34
  25
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.9
  99.8
  99.7
  99.5
  99.2
  98.9
  98.6
  98.2
  97.8
  97.4
  96.9
  96.4
  95.9
  95.4
  94.8
  94.2
  93.6
  93.0
  92.4
  91.7

Molina Healthcare, Inc. offers Medicaid-related solutions for low-income families and individuals, and assists government agencies in their administration of the Medicaid program. The Company operates through three segments: Health Plans, Molina Medicaid Solutions and Other, which includes its Pathways Health and Community Support LLC (Pathways) business. It arranges healthcare services for persons served by Medicaid, Medicare, the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and the Marketplace, and products to assist government agencies in their administration of the Medicaid program. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's Health Plans segment consisted of health plans in 12 states and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and its direct delivery business. The Molina Medicaid Solutions segment provides support to state government agencies in the administration of their Medicaid programs, including business processing, information technology development, and administrative services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Molina Healthcare (MOH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 146.8
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 4.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 71.1%
Total Debt to Equity 99.8%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Equity 3.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
EBITDA Margin 2.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Operating Margin 1.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Net Profit Margin 0.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Effective Tax Rate 74.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

MOH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MOH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $19883 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Molina Healthcare. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Molina Healthcare. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MOH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MOH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Molina Healthcare, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Molina Healthcare.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MOH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MOH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.2% for Molina Healthcare.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Molina Healthcare. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MOH stock is equal to 0.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MOH are equal to 4.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Molina Healthcare operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MOH is equal to -12.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1337 million for Molina Healthcare - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 56 million for Molina Healthcare is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Molina Healthcare at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.5 billion.

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