Intrinsic value of Molina Healthcare - MOH

Previous Close

$126.20

  Intrinsic Value

$107.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-15%

Previous close

$126.20

 
Intrinsic value

$107.54

 
Up/down potential

-15%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of MOH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  20,281
  20,747
  21,280
  21,879
  22,542
  23,270
  24,063
  24,920
  25,845
  26,836
  27,898
  29,030
  30,235
  31,516
  32,876
  34,317
  35,842
  37,455
  39,159
  40,958
  42,856
  44,859
  46,969
  49,193
  51,534
  54,000
  56,595
  59,327
  62,200
  65,222
Variable operating expenses, $m
  19,935
  20,393
  20,917
  21,504
  22,156
  22,870
  23,648
  24,490
  25,398
  26,371
  27,387
  28,499
  29,683
  30,940
  32,275
  33,689
  35,187
  36,770
  38,443
  40,209
  42,073
  44,038
  46,110
  48,293
  50,592
  53,013
  55,561
  58,242
  61,063
  64,029
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  19,935
  20,393
  20,917
  21,504
  22,156
  22,870
  23,648
  24,490
  25,398
  26,371
  27,387
  28,499
  29,683
  30,940
  32,275
  33,689
  35,187
  36,770
  38,443
  40,209
  42,073
  44,038
  46,110
  48,293
  50,592
  53,013
  55,561
  58,242
  61,063
  64,029
Operating income, $m
  345
  354
  364
  375
  387
  400
  414
  430
  447
  465
  510
  531
  553
  576
  601
  627
  655
  685
  716
  749
  784
  820
  859
  899
  942
  987
  1,035
  1,085
  1,137
  1,192
EBITDA, $m
  502
  514
  527
  542
  558
  576
  596
  617
  640
  664
  691
  719
  748
  780
  814
  849
  887
  927
  969
  1,014
  1,061
  1,110
  1,163
  1,218
  1,276
  1,337
  1,401
  1,469
  1,540
  1,614
Interest expense (income), $m
  66
  134
  130
  139
  149
  161
  174
  188
  204
  220
  238
  258
  279
  301
  324
  349
  376
  404
  434
  466
  499
  534
  571
  611
  652
  695
  741
  790
  840
  894
  950
Earnings before tax, $m
  211
  224
  225
  225
  226
  226
  226
  226
  227
  227
  252
  252
  252
  252
  252
  251
  251
  251
  250
  250
  249
  249
  248
  247
  247
  246
  245
  244
  243
  242
Tax expense, $m
  57
  61
  61
  61
  61
  61
  61
  61
  61
  61
  68
  68
  68
  68
  68
  68
  68
  68
  68
  67
  67
  67
  67
  67
  67
  66
  66
  66
  66
  65
Net income, $m
  154
  164
  164
  165
  165
  165
  165
  165
  165
  165
  184
  184
  184
  184
  184
  183
  183
  183
  183
  182
  182
  182
  181
  181
  180
  180
  179
  178
  178
  177

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,114
  7,277
  7,464
  7,674
  7,907
  8,162
  8,440
  8,741
  9,065
  9,413
  9,785
  10,182
  10,605
  11,055
  11,531
  12,037
  12,572
  13,137
  13,735
  14,366
  15,032
  15,734
  16,475
  17,254
  18,076
  18,941
  19,851
  20,809
  21,817
  22,877
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,114
  7,277
  7,464
  7,674
  7,907
  8,162
  8,440
  8,741
  9,065
  9,413
  9,785
  10,182
  10,605
  11,055
  11,531
  12,037
  12,572
  13,137
  13,735
  14,366
  15,032
  15,734
  16,475
  17,254
  18,076
  18,941
  19,851
  20,809
  21,817
  22,877
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
  2.851
Average production assets, $m
  669
  685
  702
  722
  744
  768
  794
  822
  853
  886
  921
  958
  998
  1,040
  1,085
  1,132
  1,183
  1,236
  1,292
  1,352
  1,414
  1,480
  1,550
  1,623
  1,701
  1,782
  1,868
  1,958
  2,053
  2,152
Working capital, $m
  -3,874
  -3,963
  -4,065
  -4,179
  -4,306
  -4,445
  -4,596
  -4,760
  -4,936
  -5,126
  -5,328
  -5,545
  -5,775
  -6,020
  -6,279
  -6,554
  -6,846
  -7,154
  -7,479
  -7,823
  -8,186
  -8,568
  -8,971
  -9,396
  -9,843
  -10,314
  -10,810
  -11,331
  -11,880
  -12,457
Total debt, $m
  2,090
  2,237
  2,406
  2,595
  2,804
  3,034
  3,284
  3,555
  3,847
  4,160
  4,495
  4,852
  5,233
  5,637
  6,066
  6,521
  7,002
  7,512
  8,050
  8,618
  9,217
  9,849
  10,515
  11,217
  11,956
  12,735
  13,554
  14,416
  15,323
  16,277
Total liabilities, $m
  6,402
  6,549
  6,718
  6,907
  7,116
  7,346
  7,596
  7,867
  8,159
  8,472
  8,807
  9,164
  9,545
  9,949
  10,378
  10,833
  11,314
  11,824
  12,362
  12,930
  13,529
  14,161
  14,827
  15,529
  16,268
  17,047
  17,866
  18,728
  19,635
  20,589
Total equity, $m
  711
  728
  746
  767
  791
  816
  844
  874
  907
  941
  979
  1,018
  1,061
  1,105
  1,153
  1,204
  1,257
  1,314
  1,374
  1,437
  1,503
  1,573
  1,647
  1,725
  1,808
  1,894
  1,985
  2,081
  2,182
  2,288
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,113
  7,277
  7,464
  7,674
  7,907
  8,162
  8,440
  8,741
  9,066
  9,413
  9,786
  10,182
  10,606
  11,054
  11,531
  12,037
  12,571
  13,138
  13,736
  14,367
  15,032
  15,734
  16,474
  17,254
  18,076
  18,941
  19,851
  20,809
  21,817
  22,877
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.940
  3.070
  3.220
  3.380
  3.550
  3.720
  3.890
  4.070
  4.240
  4.420
  4.590
  4.770
  4.930
  5.100
  5.260
  5.420
  5.570
  5.720
  5.860
  6.000
  6.130
  6.260
  6.380
  6.500
  6.610
  6.720
  6.830
  6.930
  7.020
  7.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  154
  164
  164
  165
  165
  165
  165
  165
  165
  165
  184
  184
  184
  184
  184
  183
  183
  183
  183
  182
  182
  182
  181
  181
  180
  180
  179
  178
  178
  177
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  157
  160
  163
  167
  171
  176
  181
  187
  193
  199
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384
  402
  422
Funds from operations, $m
  311
  323
  327
  332
  336
  341
  346
  352
  358
  365
  365
  372
  380
  388
  396
  405
  415
  425
  436
  447
  459
  472
  485
  499
  514
  529
  545
  562
  580
  599
Change in working capital, $m
  -76
  -89
  -102
  -114
  -127
  -139
  -151
  -164
  -177
  -189
  -203
  -216
  -230
  -245
  -260
  -275
  -291
  -308
  -325
  -344
  -363
  -382
  -403
  -425
  -447
  -471
  -496
  -522
  -549
  -577
Cash from operations, $m
  387
  413
  429
  446
  463
  480
  498
  516
  535
  554
  567
  588
  610
  632
  656
  681
  706
  733
  762
  791
  822
  854
  888
  924
  961
  1,000
  1,041
  1,084
  1,129
  1,176
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -128
  -131
  -134
  -138
  -142
  -146
  -151
  -156
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -213
  -222
  -232
  -242
  -253
  -265
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -318
  -333
  -349
  -366
  -384
  -402
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -146
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -218
  -228
  -238
  -249
  -261
  -272
  -285
  -298
  -312
  -328
  -343
  -360
  -377
  -395
  -414
  -435
  -456
  -479
  -502
Free cash flow, $m
  241
  266
  277
  288
  299
  310
  321
  332
  343
  354
  359
  370
  382
  395
  407
  420
  434
  448
  463
  478
  494
  511
  528
  546
  565
  585
  606
  628
  650
  674
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -79
  147
  168
  189
  209
  230
  250
  271
  292
  313
  335
  357
  381
  404
  429
  455
  481
  509
  538
  568
  599
  632
  666
  702
  739
  778
  819
  862
  907
  954
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  64
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -15
  147
  168
  189
  209
  230
  250
  271
  292
  313
  335
  357
  381
  404
  429
  455
  481
  509
  538
  568
  599
  632
  666
  702
  739
  778
  819
  862
  907
  954
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  227
  413
  446
  477
  509
  540
  571
  603
  635
  667
  694
  728
  763
  799
  836
  875
  915
  957
  1,001
  1,046
  1,094
  1,143
  1,194
  1,248
  1,305
  1,363
  1,425
  1,490
  1,557
  1,628
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -218
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  844
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  853
  397
  427
  456
  486
  514
  543
  573
  602
  632
  656
  688
  720
  754
  789
  825
  862
  901
  941
  983
  1,027
  1,073
  1,120
  1,170
  1,222
  1,277
  1,334
  1,394
  1,456
  1,522
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  817
  363
  372
  376
  376
  373
  367
  358
  346
  332
  312
  294
  274
  253
  232
  210
  188
  166
  145
  125
  106
  89
  73
  60
  48
  37
  29
  22
  16
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8

Molina Healthcare, Inc. offers Medicaid-related solutions for low-income families and individuals, and assists government agencies in their administration of the Medicaid program. The Company operates through three segments: Health Plans, Molina Medicaid Solutions and Other, which includes its Pathways Health and Community Support LLC (Pathways) business. It arranges healthcare services for persons served by Medicaid, Medicare, the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and the Marketplace, and products to assist government agencies in their administration of the Medicaid program. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's Health Plans segment consisted of health plans in 12 states and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and its direct delivery business. The Molina Medicaid Solutions segment provides support to state government agencies in the administration of their Medicaid programs, including business processing, information technology development, and administrative services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Molina Healthcare (MOH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 138.3
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 4.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 71.1%
Total Debt to Equity 99.8%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Equity 3.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
EBITDA Margin 2.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Operating Margin 1.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Net Profit Margin 0.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Effective Tax Rate 74.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

MOH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MOH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $19883 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Molina Healthcare. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Molina Healthcare. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MOH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MOH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Molina Healthcare, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Molina Healthcare.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MOH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MOH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.2% for Molina Healthcare.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Molina Healthcare. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MOH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MOH are equal to 3.3%.

Life of production assets of 5.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Molina Healthcare operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MOH is equal to -19.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1337 million for Molina Healthcare - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 61.762 million for Molina Healthcare is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Molina Healthcare at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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