Intrinsic value of Molina Healthcare Inc - MOH

Previous Close

$144.93

  Intrinsic Value

$5.83

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

Previous close

$144.93

 
Intrinsic value

$5.83

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MOH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  19,268
  19,711
  20,218
  20,786
  21,416
  22,108
  22,861
  23,676
  24,554
  25,496
  26,504
  27,580
  28,725
  29,942
  31,234
  32,603
  34,052
  35,584
  37,203
  38,912
  40,716
  42,618
  44,623
  46,736
  48,961
  51,303
  53,769
  56,364
  59,093
  61,964
Variable operating expenses, $m
  19,807
  20,262
  20,782
  21,366
  22,014
  22,724
  23,497
  24,334
  25,236
  26,203
  27,220
  28,324
  29,501
  30,751
  32,077
  33,483
  34,971
  36,545
  38,207
  39,963
  41,815
  43,769
  45,828
  47,997
  50,282
  52,688
  55,220
  57,885
  60,689
  63,637
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  19,807
  20,262
  20,782
  21,366
  22,014
  22,724
  23,497
  24,334
  25,236
  26,203
  27,220
  28,324
  29,501
  30,751
  32,077
  33,483
  34,971
  36,545
  38,207
  39,963
  41,815
  43,769
  45,828
  47,997
  50,282
  52,688
  55,220
  57,885
  60,689
  63,637
Operating income, $m
  -539
  -551
  -565
  -580
  -597
  -616
  -636
  -658
  -682
  -707
  -715
  -744
  -775
  -808
  -843
  -880
  -919
  -961
  -1,004
  -1,050
  -1,099
  -1,150
  -1,205
  -1,262
  -1,322
  -1,385
  -1,451
  -1,521
  -1,595
  -1,673
EBITDA, $m
  -439
  -449
  -461
  -474
  -488
  -504
  -521
  -540
  -560
  -581
  -604
  -629
  -655
  -683
  -712
  -743
  -776
  -811
  -848
  -887
  -928
  -971
  -1,017
  -1,065
  -1,116
  -1,169
  -1,226
  -1,285
  -1,347
  -1,412
Interest expense (income), $m
  66
  92
  99
  106
  115
  125
  136
  148
  162
  176
  191
  208
  226
  245
  265
  286
  309
  333
  358
  385
  414
  444
  475
  509
  544
  581
  620
  661
  705
  750
  798
Earnings before tax, $m
  -631
  -650
  -671
  -695
  -722
  -752
  -785
  -820
  -858
  -899
  -923
  -970
  -1,020
  -1,073
  -1,129
  -1,189
  -1,252
  -1,319
  -1,389
  -1,464
  -1,543
  -1,626
  -1,713
  -1,806
  -1,903
  -2,005
  -2,113
  -2,226
  -2,345
  -2,471
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -631
  -650
  -671
  -695
  -722
  -752
  -785
  -820
  -858
  -899
  -923
  -970
  -1,020
  -1,073
  -1,129
  -1,189
  -1,252
  -1,319
  -1,389
  -1,464
  -1,543
  -1,626
  -1,713
  -1,806
  -1,903
  -2,005
  -2,113
  -2,226
  -2,345
  -2,471

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,299
  6,444
  6,609
  6,795
  7,001
  7,227
  7,473
  7,740
  8,027
  8,335
  8,664
  9,016
  9,390
  9,788
  10,211
  10,658
  11,132
  11,633
  12,162
  12,721
  13,310
  13,932
  14,588
  15,278
  16,005
  16,771
  17,577
  18,426
  19,318
  20,256
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,299
  6,444
  6,609
  6,795
  7,001
  7,227
  7,473
  7,740
  8,027
  8,335
  8,664
  9,016
  9,390
  9,788
  10,211
  10,658
  11,132
  11,633
  12,162
  12,721
  13,310
  13,932
  14,588
  15,278
  16,005
  16,771
  17,577
  18,426
  19,318
  20,256
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
  3.059
Average production assets, $m
  405
  414
  425
  437
  450
  464
  480
  497
  516
  535
  557
  579
  603
  629
  656
  685
  715
  747
  781
  817
  855
  895
  937
  981
  1,028
  1,077
  1,129
  1,184
  1,241
  1,301
Working capital, $m
  -2,582
  -2,641
  -2,709
  -2,785
  -2,870
  -2,962
  -3,063
  -3,173
  -3,290
  -3,416
  -3,552
  -3,696
  -3,849
  -4,012
  -4,185
  -4,369
  -4,563
  -4,768
  -4,985
  -5,214
  -5,456
  -5,711
  -5,980
  -6,263
  -6,561
  -6,875
  -7,205
  -7,553
  -7,919
  -8,303
Total debt, $m
  1,565
  1,688
  1,830
  1,988
  2,164
  2,357
  2,567
  2,794
  3,039
  3,302
  3,583
  3,883
  4,202
  4,541
  4,902
  5,283
  5,687
  6,115
  6,566
  7,043
  7,546
  8,076
  8,635
  9,224
  9,845
  10,498
  11,185
  11,909
  12,670
  13,471
Total liabilities, $m
  5,373
  5,496
  5,638
  5,796
  5,972
  6,165
  6,375
  6,602
  6,847
  7,110
  7,391
  7,691
  8,010
  8,349
  8,710
  9,091
  9,495
  9,923
  10,374
  10,851
  11,354
  11,884
  12,443
  13,032
  13,653
  14,306
  14,993
  15,717
  16,478
  17,279
Total equity, $m
  926
  947
  972
  999
  1,029
  1,062
  1,099
  1,138
  1,180
  1,225
  1,274
  1,325
  1,380
  1,439
  1,501
  1,567
  1,636
  1,710
  1,788
  1,870
  1,957
  2,048
  2,144
  2,246
  2,353
  2,465
  2,584
  2,709
  2,840
  2,978
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,299
  6,443
  6,610
  6,795
  7,001
  7,227
  7,474
  7,740
  8,027
  8,335
  8,665
  9,016
  9,390
  9,788
  10,211
  10,658
  11,131
  11,633
  12,162
  12,721
  13,311
  13,932
  14,587
  15,278
  16,006
  16,771
  17,577
  18,426
  19,318
  20,257
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.690
  1.780
  1.880
  1.990
  2.100
  2.220
  2.340
  2.460
  2.580
  2.690
  2.810
  2.930
  3.040
  3.160
  3.270
  3.370
  3.480
  3.580
  3.670
  3.770
  3.860
  3.940
  4.030
  4.110
  4.180
  4.260
  4.330
  4.400
  4.460
  4.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -631
  -650
  -671
  -695
  -722
  -752
  -785
  -820
  -858
  -899
  -923
  -970
  -1,020
  -1,073
  -1,129
  -1,189
  -1,252
  -1,319
  -1,389
  -1,464
  -1,543
  -1,626
  -1,713
  -1,806
  -1,903
  -2,005
  -2,113
  -2,226
  -2,345
  -2,471
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  100
  102
  104
  106
  109
  112
  115
  118
  122
  126
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  206
  215
  226
  237
  248
  260
Funds from operations, $m
  -531
  -548
  -567
  -589
  -613
  -640
  -670
  -701
  -736
  -773
  -812
  -854
  -899
  -947
  -998
  -1,052
  -1,109
  -1,169
  -1,233
  -1,301
  -1,372
  -1,447
  -1,526
  -1,609
  -1,697
  -1,790
  -1,887
  -1,989
  -2,097
  -2,211
Change in working capital, $m
  -51
  -59
  -68
  -76
  -84
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -118
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -183
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -229
  -242
  -255
  -269
  -283
  -298
  -314
  -330
  -348
  -366
  -385
Cash from operations, $m
  -480
  -488
  -499
  -513
  -529
  -548
  -569
  -592
  -618
  -646
  -677
  -710
  -746
  -784
  -825
  -869
  -915
  -964
  -1,016
  -1,072
  -1,130
  -1,192
  -1,257
  -1,326
  -1,399
  -1,476
  -1,557
  -1,642
  -1,731
  -1,826
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -81
  -81
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -248
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -83
  -90
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -231
  -243
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -308
Free cash flow, $m
  -563
  -579
  -593
  -610
  -630
  -652
  -677
  -705
  -736
  -769
  -805
  -844
  -886
  -930
  -978
  -1,028
  -1,082
  -1,139
  -1,200
  -1,264
  -1,331
  -1,403
  -1,478
  -1,558
  -1,642
  -1,731
  -1,824
  -1,922
  -2,026
  -2,134
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  107
  124
  141
  159
  176
  193
  210
  227
  245
  263
  281
  300
  319
  339
  360
  382
  404
  427
  451
  477
  503
  530
  559
  589
  620
  653
  688
  724
  761
  801
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  647
  671
  695
  723
  753
  785
  821
  859
  900
  944
  972
  1,022
  1,075
  1,131
  1,191
  1,255
  1,322
  1,392
  1,467
  1,546
  1,629
  1,717
  1,810
  1,907
  2,010
  2,118
  2,231
  2,351
  2,477
  2,609
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  754
  795
  836
  882
  929
  978
  1,031
  1,086
  1,145
  1,207
  1,253
  1,322
  1,394
  1,470
  1,551
  1,637
  1,726
  1,819
  1,918
  2,023
  2,132
  2,247
  2,369
  2,496
  2,630
  2,771
  2,919
  3,075
  3,238
  3,410
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  191
  216
  244
  272
  299
  326
  353
  381
  409
  437
  448
  478
  509
  541
  574
  608
  643
  680
  719
  759
  801
  845
  890
  938
  988
  1,040
  1,095
  1,152
  1,212
  1,275
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -647
  -671
  -695
  -723
  -753
  -785
  -821
  -859
  -900
  -944
  -972
  -1,022
  -1,075
  -1,131
  -1,191
  -1,255
  -1,322
  -1,392
  -1,467
  -1,546
  -1,629
  -1,717
  -1,810
  -1,907
  -2,010
  -2,118
  -2,231
  -2,351
  -2,477
  -2,609
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  737
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  281
  -455
  -451
  -451
  -454
  -459
  -467
  -478
  -491
  -506
  -524
  -544
  -566
  -591
  -618
  -647
  -678
  -712
  -748
  -787
  -828
  -872
  -919
  -969
  -1,022
  -1,077
  -1,136
  -1,199
  -1,264
  -1,334
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  269
  -417
  -393
  -371
  -352
  -333
  -316
  -299
  -282
  -266
  -249
  -232
  -215
  -198
  -181
  -164
  -148
  -131
  -115
  -100
  -86
  -72
  -60
  -49
  -40
  -31
  -24
  -19
  -14
  -10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  88.6
  78.2
  69.0
  60.8
  53.5
  47.0
  41.2
  36.0
  31.5
  27.5
  24.0
  21.0
  18.3
  15.9
  13.8
  12.0
  10.4
  9.0
  7.8
  6.7
  5.8
  5.0
  4.3
  3.7
  3.2
  2.7
  2.4
  2.0
  1.7
  1.5

Molina Healthcare, Inc. offers Medicaid-related solutions for low-income families and individuals, and assists government agencies in their administration of the Medicaid program. The Company operates through three segments: Health Plans, Molina Medicaid Solutions and Other, which includes its Pathways Health and Community Support LLC (Pathways) business. It arranges healthcare services for persons served by Medicaid, Medicare, the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and the Marketplace, and products to assist government agencies in their administration of the Medicaid program. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's Health Plans segment consisted of health plans in 12 states and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and its direct delivery business. The Molina Medicaid Solutions segment provides support to state government agencies in the administration of their Medicaid programs, including business processing, information technology development, and administrative services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 158.9
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 71.1%
Total Debt to Equity 99.8%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Equity 3.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
EBITDA Margin 2.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Operating Margin 1.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Net Profit Margin 0.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Effective Tax Rate 74.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

MOH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MOH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $18890 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Molina Healthcare Inc. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Molina Healthcare Inc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MOH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MOH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Molina Healthcare Inc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Molina Healthcare Inc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MOH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 102.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MOH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.3% for Molina Healthcare Inc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Molina Healthcare Inc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MOH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MOH are equal to 2.1%.

Life of production assets of 4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Molina Healthcare Inc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MOH is equal to -13.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1647 million for Molina Healthcare Inc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62.482 million for Molina Healthcare Inc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Molina Healthcare Inc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.1 billion.

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