Intrinsic value of Morningstar - MORN

Previous Close

$121.62

  Intrinsic Value

$83.45

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-31%

Previous close

$121.62

 
Intrinsic value

$83.45

 
Up/down potential

-31%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MORN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  1,004
  1,100
  1,200
  1,305
  1,414
  1,527
  1,645
  1,768
  1,895
  2,027
  2,164
  2,307
  2,456
  2,610
  2,771
  2,939
  3,114
  3,296
  3,486
  3,684
  3,891
  4,107
  4,333
  4,570
  4,817
  5,075
  5,346
  5,629
  5,925
  6,236
Variable operating expenses, $m
  770
  838
  908
  982
  1,058
  1,138
  1,220
  1,306
  1,395
  1,488
  1,518
  1,619
  1,723
  1,831
  1,944
  2,062
  2,184
  2,312
  2,446
  2,585
  2,730
  2,882
  3,040
  3,206
  3,379
  3,561
  3,750
  3,949
  4,157
  4,375
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  770
  838
  908
  982
  1,058
  1,138
  1,220
  1,306
  1,395
  1,488
  1,518
  1,619
  1,723
  1,831
  1,944
  2,062
  2,184
  2,312
  2,446
  2,585
  2,730
  2,882
  3,040
  3,206
  3,379
  3,561
  3,750
  3,949
  4,157
  4,375
Operating income, $m
  234
  262
  292
  323
  356
  390
  425
  461
  499
  539
  646
  688
  733
  779
  827
  877
  929
  984
  1,040
  1,099
  1,161
  1,226
  1,293
  1,364
  1,437
  1,515
  1,595
  1,680
  1,768
  1,861
EBITDA, $m
  359
  393
  429
  466
  505
  546
  588
  632
  677
  724
  774
  825
  878
  933
  991
  1,050
  1,113
  1,178
  1,246
  1,317
  1,391
  1,468
  1,549
  1,633
  1,722
  1,814
  1,911
  2,012
  2,118
  2,229
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  10
  13
  16
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  49
  54
  59
  65
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  101
  108
  116
  123
  132
  140
  149
  158
  168
  178
  188
Earnings before tax, $m
  224
  249
  276
  303
  332
  362
  393
  426
  459
  494
  596
  634
  673
  714
  757
  801
  847
  895
  946
  998
  1,053
  1,110
  1,170
  1,232
  1,298
  1,366
  1,437
  1,512
  1,591
  1,673
Tax expense, $m
  60
  67
  74
  82
  90
  98
  106
  115
  124
  133
  161
  171
  182
  193
  204
  216
  229
  242
  255
  269
  284
  300
  316
  333
  350
  369
  388
  408
  429
  452
Net income, $m
  163
  182
  201
  222
  243
  264
  287
  311
  335
  361
  435
  463
  492
  521
  552
  585
  619
  654
  690
  729
  769
  810
  854
  900
  947
  997
  1,049
  1,104
  1,161
  1,221

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,514
  1,659
  1,811
  1,969
  2,133
  2,304
  2,481
  2,666
  2,858
  3,057
  3,264
  3,480
  3,704
  3,937
  4,180
  4,433
  4,696
  4,971
  5,258
  5,557
  5,869
  6,195
  6,536
  6,893
  7,265
  7,655
  8,063
  8,490
  8,937
  9,406
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,514
  1,659
  1,811
  1,969
  2,133
  2,304
  2,481
  2,666
  2,858
  3,057
  3,264
  3,480
  3,704
  3,937
  4,180
  4,433
  4,696
  4,971
  5,258
  5,557
  5,869
  6,195
  6,536
  6,893
  7,265
  7,655
  8,063
  8,490
  8,937
  9,406
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
  0.663
Average production assets, $m
  533
  584
  637
  693
  751
  811
  874
  939
  1,006
  1,076
  1,149
  1,225
  1,304
  1,386
  1,472
  1,561
  1,653
  1,750
  1,851
  1,956
  2,066
  2,181
  2,301
  2,427
  2,558
  2,695
  2,839
  2,989
  3,146
  3,311
Working capital, $m
  -162
  -177
  -193
  -210
  -228
  -246
  -265
  -285
  -305
  -326
  -348
  -371
  -395
  -420
  -446
  -473
  -501
  -531
  -561
  -593
  -626
  -661
  -698
  -736
  -776
  -817
  -861
  -906
  -954
  -1,004
Total debt, $m
  241
  304
  370
  439
  511
  586
  664
  744
  828
  915
  1,006
  1,100
  1,198
  1,300
  1,406
  1,516
  1,631
  1,752
  1,877
  2,008
  2,144
  2,287
  2,436
  2,591
  2,754
  2,924
  3,103
  3,289
  3,485
  3,689
Total liabilities, $m
  662
  725
  791
  860
  932
  1,007
  1,084
  1,165
  1,249
  1,336
  1,427
  1,521
  1,619
  1,721
  1,827
  1,937
  2,052
  2,172
  2,298
  2,428
  2,565
  2,707
  2,856
  3,012
  3,175
  3,345
  3,524
  3,710
  3,906
  4,110
Total equity, $m
  852
  934
  1,019
  1,108
  1,201
  1,297
  1,397
  1,501
  1,609
  1,721
  1,838
  1,959
  2,085
  2,217
  2,353
  2,496
  2,644
  2,799
  2,960
  3,128
  3,304
  3,488
  3,680
  3,880
  4,090
  4,310
  4,539
  4,780
  5,032
  5,295
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,514
  1,659
  1,810
  1,968
  2,133
  2,304
  2,481
  2,666
  2,858
  3,057
  3,265
  3,480
  3,704
  3,938
  4,180
  4,433
  4,696
  4,971
  5,258
  5,556
  5,869
  6,195
  6,536
  6,892
  7,265
  7,655
  8,063
  8,490
  8,938
  9,405
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.280
  0.330
  0.360
  0.400
  0.430
  0.450
  0.470
  0.500
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  163
  182
  201
  222
  243
  264
  287
  311
  335
  361
  435
  463
  492
  521
  552
  585
  619
  654
  690
  729
  769
  810
  854
  900
  947
  997
  1,049
  1,104
  1,161
  1,221
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  125
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  128
  136
  145
  154
  164
  173
  184
  194
  206
  217
  230
  242
  256
  270
  284
  299
  315
  332
  350
  368
Funds from operations, $m
  289
  313
  338
  365
  392
  421
  450
  481
  513
  546
  563
  599
  637
  675
  716
  758
  802
  848
  896
  946
  998
  1,053
  1,110
  1,169
  1,231
  1,297
  1,365
  1,436
  1,511
  1,589
Change in working capital, $m
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
Cash from operations, $m
  303
  328
  354
  381
  410
  439
  469
  501
  534
  568
  585
  622
  660
  700
  742
  785
  830
  877
  927
  978
  1,031
  1,087
  1,146
  1,207
  1,271
  1,338
  1,408
  1,482
  1,559
  1,639
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -54
  -59
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -90
  -97
  -104
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -136
  -145
  -154
  -164
  -173
  -184
  -194
  -206
  -217
  -230
  -242
  -256
  -270
  -284
  -299
  -315
  -332
  -350
New CAPEX, $m
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -165
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -103
  -110
  -118
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -153
  -162
  -172
  -182
  -193
  -204
  -215
  -227
  -239
  -253
  -266
  -281
  -295
  -311
  -327
  -345
  -362
  -381
  -401
  -421
  -443
  -465
  -489
  -515
Free cash flow, $m
  201
  218
  236
  255
  275
  295
  316
  339
  362
  386
  393
  419
  445
  473
  502
  533
  564
  597
  631
  667
  704
  743
  784
  826
  870
  917
  965
  1,016
  1,069
  1,125
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  125
  131
  136
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  187
  195
  205
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  125
  131
  136
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  187
  195
  205
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  262
  281
  302
  324
  346
  370
  394
  419
  446
  473
  483
  513
  543
  575
  609
  643
  679
  717
  756
  798
  841
  886
  933
  982
  1,033
  1,087
  1,143
  1,203
  1,264
  1,329
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -230
  -240
  -252
  -264
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  214
  200
  217
  235
  254
  274
  294
  315
  338
  361
  367
  391
  417
  444
  472
  501
  531
  562
  595
  629
  665
  702
  741
  781
  823
  868
  914
  962
  1,013
  1,066
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  205
  183
  189
  194
  197
  199
  199
  197
  194
  189
  174
  167
  159
  149
  139
  127
  116
  104
  92
  80
  69
  58
  49
  40
  32
  25
  20
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Morningstar, Inc. is a provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The Company focuses to create products that help investors reach their financial goals. It offers a range of data, software, research, and investment management offerings for financial advisors, asset managers, sponsors, and individual investors. It provides data and research insights on a range of investment offerings, including managed investment products, listed companies, capital markets, and real-time global market data. It conducts its business operations outside of the United States through subsidiaries in countries, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Denmark, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, People's Republic of China (both Hong Kong and the mainland), Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Morningstar (MORN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.4
Price to Sales 6.5
Price to Book 7.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 34.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 10.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 35.9%
Total Debt to Equity 35.9%
Interest Coverage 226
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Return On Total Capital 19.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.9%
Return On Equity 24.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.7%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.7%
EBITDA Margin 37.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.7%
Operating Margin 22.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 28.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
Net Profit Margin 20.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Effective Tax Rate 28.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
Payout Ratio 23.6%

MORN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MORN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $911.7 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Morningstar. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Morningstar. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MORN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MORN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Morningstar, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Morningstar.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MORN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MORN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Morningstar.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Morningstar. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MORN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MORN are equal to 53.1%.

Life of production assets of 9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Morningstar operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MORN is equal to -16.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $804.9 million for Morningstar - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43.059 million for Morningstar is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Morningstar at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.2 billion.

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