Intrinsic value of Monolithic Power Systems - MPWR

Previous Close

$140.72

  Intrinsic Value

$53.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-62%

Previous close

$140.72

 
Intrinsic value

$53.09

 
Up/down potential

-62%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MPWR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
Revenue, $m
  571
  683
  806
  942
  1,089
  1,248
  1,418
  1,598
  1,790
  1,991
  2,203
  2,426
  2,658
  2,900
  3,153
  3,416
  3,689
  3,973
  4,268
  4,575
  4,894
  5,225
  5,570
  5,928
  6,301
  6,690
  7,094
  7,516
  7,955
  8,414
Variable operating expenses, $m
  411
  491
  580
  677
  783
  897
  1,019
  1,149
  1,286
  1,431
  1,583
  1,742
  1,909
  2,083
  2,265
  2,453
  2,650
  2,854
  3,066
  3,286
  3,515
  3,753
  4,001
  4,258
  4,526
  4,805
  5,096
  5,399
  5,714
  6,044
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  101
  103
  106
Total operating expenses, $m
  467
  548
  639
  737
  844
  960
  1,083
  1,214
  1,353
  1,499
  1,653
  1,813
  1,982
  2,158
  2,341
  2,531
  2,730
  2,935
  3,149
  3,371
  3,602
  3,842
  4,092
  4,351
  4,621
  4,902
  5,195
  5,500
  5,817
  6,150
Operating income, $m
  104
  134
  168
  205
  245
  288
  334
  384
  436
  492
  551
  612
  676
  742
  812
  884
  960
  1,038
  1,119
  1,204
  1,292
  1,383
  1,478
  1,577
  1,680
  1,788
  1,899
  2,016
  2,138
  2,265
EBITDA, $m
  120
  153
  190
  230
  274
  321
  372
  427
  484
  545
  609
  675
  745
  818
  894
  974
  1,056
  1,142
  1,231
  1,324
  1,420
  1,520
  1,624
  1,733
  1,845
  1,963
  2,085
  2,213
  2,346
  2,485
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
Earnings before tax, $m
  104
  133
  164
  200
  238
  279
  323
  370
  420
  472
  528
  586
  647
  710
  776
  844
  915
  990
  1,067
  1,147
  1,230
  1,317
  1,407
  1,501
  1,599
  1,700
  1,806
  1,917
  2,032
  2,153
Tax expense, $m
  28
  36
  44
  54
  64
  75
  87
  100
  113
  127
  143
  158
  175
  192
  209
  228
  247
  267
  288
  310
  332
  356
  380
  405
  432
  459
  488
  518
  549
  581
Net income, $m
  76
  97
  120
  146
  173
  204
  236
  270
  306
  345
  386
  428
  472
  518
  566
  616
  668
  722
  779
  837
  898
  961
  1,027
  1,096
  1,167
  1,241
  1,319
  1,399
  1,484
  1,571

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  508
  608
  718
  839
  970
  1,111
  1,262
  1,423
  1,594
  1,773
  1,962
  2,160
  2,367
  2,583
  2,807
  3,041
  3,285
  3,538
  3,801
  4,074
  4,358
  4,653
  4,960
  5,279
  5,611
  5,957
  6,317
  6,693
  7,084
  7,492
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  508
  608
  718
  839
  970
  1,111
  1,262
  1,423
  1,594
  1,773
  1,962
  2,160
  2,367
  2,583
  2,807
  3,041
  3,285
  3,538
  3,801
  4,074
  4,358
  4,653
  4,960
  5,279
  5,611
  5,957
  6,317
  6,693
  7,084
  7,492
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.124
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.124
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
  1.123
Average production assets, $m
  150
  179
  211
  247
  285
  327
  371
  419
  469
  522
  577
  636
  696
  760
  826
  895
  966
  1,041
  1,118
  1,199
  1,282
  1,369
  1,459
  1,553
  1,651
  1,753
  1,859
  1,969
  2,084
  2,204
Working capital, $m
  92
  111
  131
  153
  176
  202
  230
  259
  290
  323
  357
  393
  431
  470
  511
  553
  598
  644
  691
  741
  793
  846
  902
  960
  1,021
  1,084
  1,149
  1,218
  1,289
  1,363
Total debt, $m
  28
  58
  93
  130
  171
  215
  262
  312
  365
  421
  480
  541
  606
  673
  743
  815
  891
  970
  1,051
  1,136
  1,225
  1,317
  1,412
  1,511
  1,615
  1,722
  1,834
  1,951
  2,073
  2,200
Total liabilities, $m
  158
  189
  223
  261
  302
  346
  393
  443
  496
  551
  610
  672
  736
  803
  873
  946
  1,022
  1,100
  1,182
  1,267
  1,355
  1,447
  1,543
  1,642
  1,745
  1,853
  1,965
  2,081
  2,203
  2,330
Total equity, $m
  350
  419
  495
  578
  668
  766
  870
  981
  1,098
  1,222
  1,352
  1,488
  1,631
  1,779
  1,934
  2,096
  2,263
  2,438
  2,619
  2,807
  3,003
  3,206
  3,417
  3,637
  3,866
  4,104
  4,353
  4,611
  4,881
  5,162
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  508
  608
  718
  839
  970
  1,112
  1,263
  1,424
  1,594
  1,773
  1,962
  2,160
  2,367
  2,582
  2,807
  3,042
  3,285
  3,538
  3,801
  4,074
  4,358
  4,653
  4,960
  5,279
  5,611
  5,957
  6,318
  6,692
  7,084
  7,492
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.080
  0.140
  0.190
  0.230
  0.260
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689
  0.689

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  76
  97
  120
  146
  173
  204
  236
  270
  306
  345
  386
  428
  472
  518
  566
  616
  668
  722
  779
  837
  898
  961
  1,027
  1,096
  1,167
  1,241
  1,319
  1,399
  1,484
  1,571
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  33
  38
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  89
  97
  104
  112
  120
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  186
  197
  208
  220
Funds from operations, $m
  92
  115
  142
  171
  203
  237
  274
  313
  354
  398
  443
  491
  542
  594
  649
  706
  765
  827
  891
  957
  1,026
  1,098
  1,173
  1,251
  1,332
  1,417
  1,505
  1,596
  1,692
  1,792
Change in working capital, $m
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
Cash from operations, $m
  75
  97
  122
  149
  179
  211
  246
  283
  323
  365
  409
  455
  504
  555
  608
  663
  721
  781
  843
  907
  975
  1,045
  1,117
  1,193
  1,272
  1,354
  1,439
  1,528
  1,621
  1,718
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -58
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -83
  -89
  -97
  -104
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -137
  -146
  -155
  -165
  -175
  -186
  -197
  -208
New CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -120
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -77
  -84
  -92
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -125
  -133
  -142
  -152
  -161
  -171
  -181
  -192
  -204
  -215
  -227
  -240
  -253
  -267
  -281
  -296
  -312
  -328
Free cash flow, $m
  37
  53
  72
  93
  116
  141
  169
  199
  231
  265
  301
  339
  380
  422
  466
  512
  560
  609
  661
  715
  771
  830
  890
  953
  1,019
  1,087
  1,158
  1,232
  1,309
  1,389
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  65
  84
  106
  130
  156
  185
  216
  249
  284
  321
  360
  401
  444
  489
  536
  584
  635
  688
  743
  800
  860
  921
  986
  1,052
  1,122
  1,194
  1,270
  1,348
  1,430
  1,516
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -61
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -90
  -97
  -104
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -248
  -259
  -270
  -281
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  233
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  53
  64
  76
  90
  105
  122
  140
  159
  179
  200
  223
  247
  272
  298
  325
  353
  383
  413
  445
  478
  512
  548
  585
  624
  664
  706
  749
  795
  842
  891
Cash available for distribution, $m
  236
  15
  30
  47
  66
  88
  112
  138
  167
  197
  230
  265
  301
  340
  381
  423
  468
  514
  562
  612
  664
  718
  774
  833
  893
  956
  1,022
  1,090
  1,161
  1,235
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  226
  14
  26
  39
  51
  64
  76
  86
  96
  103
  109
  113
  115
  114
  112
  108
  102
  95
  87
  78
  69
  60
  51
  42
  35
  28
  22
  17
  13
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. designs, develops and markets integrated power semiconductor solutions and power delivery architectures. The Company operates in the design, development, marketing and sale of power solutions for the communications, storage and computing, consumer and industrial markets segment. The Company's product families include Direct Current (DC) to DC Products, and Lighting Control Products. The Company's DC to DC integrated circuits (ICs) are used to convert and control voltages within a range of electronic systems, such as portable electronic devices, wireless local area network (LAN) access points, computers, monitors, automobiles and medical equipment. Lighting control ICs are used in backlighting and general illumination products. In addition to Alternating Current (AC)/DC offline solutions for lighting illumination applications, the Company also offers AC/DC power conversion solutions for end products that plug into a wall outlet.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 108.3
Price to Sales 14.8
Price to Book 13.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 53.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 80.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 131.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Total Capital 13.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Return On Equity 13.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.1%
EBITDA Margin 18.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Operating Margin 14.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Net Profit Margin 13.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Effective Tax Rate 7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Payout Ratio 62.3%

MPWR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MPWR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $471 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Monolithic Power Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Monolithic Power Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MPWR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MPWR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Monolithic Power Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Monolithic Power Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MPWR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $55 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MPWR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Monolithic Power Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Monolithic Power Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MPWR stock is equal to 11.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MPWR are equal to 26.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Monolithic Power Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MPWR is equal to 16.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $522 million for Monolithic Power Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41 million for Monolithic Power Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Monolithic Power Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Monolithic: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-30-18 05:43PM  Associated Press]
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▶ 13 Small-Cap Stocks With Wide Quantitative Moats   [Feb-20-18 06:00AM  Morningstar]
▶ Monolithic tops Street 4Q forecasts   [Feb-08-18 04:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top-Rated Stocks: Monolithic Power Systems Sees Composite Rating Climb To 96   [Jan-04-18 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Monolithic Power Systems Shows Market Leadership With Jump To 83 RS Rating   [Jan-03-18 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Monolithic Power Systems Announces Fourth Quarter Dividend   [Dec-14-17 04:19PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Chips That Stay Crisp: Nvidia, Monolithic Look Like Buys   [Dec-08-17 03:27PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Should You Get Rid of CenturyLink (CTL) Now?   [Nov-15-17 08:36AM  Zacks]
▶ Monolithic tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-26-17 07:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ MKS Instruments, Monolithic Power, ON Semiconductor Nab Price-Target Hikes   [Oct-24-17 05:28PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Integrated Device Technology Sees IBD RS Rating Rise To 71   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Stocks With Rising Composite Ratings: Monolithic Power Systems   [Sep-19-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Monolithic Power Systems Announces Third Quarter Dividend   [Sep-14-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Monolithic Power Systems Cheered After Earnings Beat   [Jul-27-17 04:23PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Monolithic tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-26-17 11:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Chip-Gear Maker Lam Research Beats Views, Guides Higher   [05:45PM  Investor's Business Daily]
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