Intrinsic value of Everspin Technologies, Inc. - MRAM

Previous Close

$7.42

  Intrinsic Value

$0.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$7.42

 
Intrinsic value

$0.10

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MRAM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  27.90
  25.61
  23.55
  21.69
  20.02
  18.52
  17.17
  15.95
  14.86
  13.87
  12.98
  12.19
  11.47
  10.82
  10.24
  9.71
  9.24
  8.82
  8.44
  8.09
  7.78
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
Revenue, $m
  46
  58
  71
  87
  104
  124
  145
  168
  193
  220
  248
  279
  311
  344
  379
  416
  455
  495
  537
  580
  625
  672
  721
  772
  824
  879
  936
  995
  1,057
  1,121
Variable operating expenses, $m
  70
  88
  109
  132
  159
  188
  220
  255
  293
  334
  377
  423
  471
  522
  576
  631
  690
  751
  814
  880
  948
  1,020
  1,093
  1,170
  1,250
  1,333
  1,420
  1,510
  1,603
  1,701
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Total operating expenses, $m
  72
  90
  111
  134
  161
  190
  222
  257
  295
  336
  380
  426
  474
  525
  579
  634
  693
  754
  817
  883
  951
  1,023
  1,096
  1,173
  1,253
  1,337
  1,424
  1,514
  1,607
  1,705
Operating income, $m
  -26
  -32
  -39
  -48
  -57
  -67
  -78
  -90
  -103
  -117
  -131
  -147
  -163
  -181
  -199
  -218
  -238
  -259
  -280
  -303
  -326
  -351
  -376
  -402
  -429
  -458
  -487
  -518
  -550
  -583
EBITDA, $m
  -25
  -31
  -38
  -46
  -54
  -64
  -75
  -87
  -99
  -113
  -127
  -142
  -158
  -175
  -193
  -211
  -231
  -251
  -272
  -294
  -316
  -340
  -364
  -390
  -416
  -444
  -472
  -502
  -533
  -565
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
Earnings before tax, $m
  -27
  -34
  -41
  -50
  -59
  -70
  -82
  -94
  -108
  -123
  -138
  -155
  -172
  -191
  -210
  -231
  -252
  -274
  -297
  -321
  -346
  -372
  -399
  -427
  -456
  -486
  -517
  -550
  -584
  -619
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -27
  -34
  -41
  -50
  -59
  -70
  -82
  -94
  -108
  -123
  -138
  -155
  -172
  -191
  -210
  -231
  -252
  -274
  -297
  -321
  -346
  -372
  -399
  -427
  -456
  -486
  -517
  -550
  -584
  -619

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  34
  43
  53
  65
  78
  92
  108
  125
  144
  164
  185
  208
  232
  257
  283
  311
  339
  369
  400
  433
  467
  502
  538
  576
  615
  656
  698
  743
  789
  837
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  34
  43
  53
  65
  78
  92
  108
  125
  144
  164
  185
  208
  232
  257
  283
  311
  339
  369
  400
  433
  467
  502
  538
  576
  615
  656
  698
  743
  789
  837
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.353
  1.349
  1.340
  1.338
  1.333
  1.348
  1.343
  1.344
  1.340
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.341
  1.339
  1.339
  1.338
  1.342
  1.341
  1.343
  1.339
  1.338
  1.339
  1.340
  1.340
  1.340
  1.340
  1.341
  1.339
  1.340
  1.339
Average production assets, $m
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
Working capital, $m
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  64
  70
  77
  84
  91
  98
  106
  114
  122
  130
  139
  149
  158
  168
  179
  189
Total debt, $m
  17
  22
  28
  36
  44
  52
  62
  73
  84
  97
  110
  124
  138
  154
  170
  187
  205
  223
  242
  262
  283
  305
  327
  350
  374
  400
  426
  453
  481
  511
Total liabilities, $m
  21
  27
  33
  40
  48
  57
  67
  77
  89
  101
  114
  128
  143
  158
  174
  191
  209
  227
  247
  267
  287
  309
  331
  355
  379
  404
  430
  457
  486
  515
Total equity, $m
  13
  17
  20
  25
  30
  35
  42
  48
  55
  63
  71
  80
  89
  99
  109
  119
  130
  142
  154
  166
  179
  193
  207
  221
  236
  252
  268
  285
  303
  321
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  34
  44
  53
  65
  78
  92
  109
  125
  144
  164
  185
  208
  232
  257
  283
  310
  339
  369
  401
  433
  466
  502
  538
  576
  615
  656
  698
  742
  789
  836
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.270
  1.340
  1.390
  1.430
  1.460
  1.480
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
  1.540
  1.550
  1.550
  1.560
  1.560
  1.570
  1.570
  1.570
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384
  0.384

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -27
  -34
  -41
  -50
  -59
  -70
  -82
  -94
  -108
  -123
  -138
  -155
  -172
  -191
  -210
  -231
  -252
  -274
  -297
  -321
  -346
  -372
  -399
  -427
  -456
  -486
  -517
  -550
  -584
  -619
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
Funds from operations, $m
  -26
  -32
  -40
  -48
  -57
  -67
  -79
  -91
  -105
  -119
  -134
  -150
  -167
  -185
  -204
  -224
  -245
  -266
  -288
  -312
  -336
  -361
  -387
  -414
  -442
  -472
  -502
  -534
  -567
  -601
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  -28
  -34
  -42
  -50
  -60
  -71
  -82
  -95
  -109
  -123
  -139
  -155
  -173
  -191
  -210
  -230
  -251
  -273
  -295
  -319
  -343
  -369
  -395
  -423
  -451
  -481
  -512
  -544
  -577
  -612
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Free cash flow, $m
  -29
  -36
  -44
  -53
  -63
  -74
  -86
  -99
  -114
  -129
  -145
  -162
  -180
  -199
  -219
  -239
  -261
  -283
  -307
  -331
  -357
  -383
  -410
  -439
  -468
  -499
  -531
  -564
  -598
  -634
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  30
  37
  45
  54
  64
  75
  88
  101
  115
  131
  146
  164
  182
  201
  221
  241
  263
  286
  309
  334
  359
  385
  413
  441
  471
  502
  534
  567
  602
  638
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  35
  42
  51
  61
  72
  84
  98
  112
  126
  143
  159
  178
  197
  216
  237
  258
  281
  304
  328
  354
  380
  407
  435
  464
  495
  527
  560
  594
  630
  668
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -30
  -37
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -75
  -88
  -101
  -115
  -131
  -146
  -164
  -182
  -201
  -221
  -241
  -263
  -286
  -309
  -334
  -359
  -385
  -413
  -441
  -471
  -502
  -534
  -567
  -602
  -638
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -24
  -31
  -38
  -46
  -55
  -65
  -76
  -89
  -102
  -116
  -132
  -148
  -165
  -183
  -202
  -222
  -243
  -265
  -288
  -311
  -336
  -361
  -388
  -415
  -444
  -474
  -504
  -537
  -570
  -605
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -63
  -63
  -62
  -59
  -57
  -53
  -49
  -44
  -40
  -35
  -30
  -25
  -21
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  77.4
  60.5
  47.5
  37.6
  29.9
  23.9
  19.1
  15.4
  12.4
  10.1
  8.2
  6.6
  5.4
  4.4
  3.6
  3.0
  2.4
  2.0
  1.6
  1.3
  1.1
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2

Everspin Technologies, Inc. is a United States-based provider of magnetoresistive random-access memory (MRAM) solutions. The Company is engaged in designing, manufacturing and shipping discrete and embedded MRAM and spin-torque MRAM (ST-MRAM) into markets and applications. The Company's products include 8-bit/16-bit Parallel Interface MRAM, Serial Peripheral Interface (SPI), Quad SPI and Double Data Rate (DDR) 3 dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) Compatible MRAM - Spin Torque Technology. The Company's MR10Q010 Quad SPI MRAM is a memory solution for applications that store and retrieve data and programs. Its DDR3 DRAM Compatible MRAM - Spin Torque Technology is designed to comply with all DDR3 DRAM features, such as on-device termination (ODT) and internal ZQ calibration. Its family of both parallel asynchronous input/output (I/O) and serial peripheral interface (SPI) products in densities ranging from 256 kilobyte (Kb) to 16 megabyte (Mb) is available in die form.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Everspin Technologies, Inc. (MRAM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -5.5
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -4.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 14.8%
Total Debt to Equity 29.6%
Interest Coverage -16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -61.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -98.9%
Return On Total Capital -91.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -161.9%
Return On Equity -161.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -420.6%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.1%
EBITDA Margin -55.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -51.5%
Operating Margin -59.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -54.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -63%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -56.5%
Net Profit Margin -63%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -56.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

MRAM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MRAM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $36 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Everspin Technologies, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Everspin Technologies, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MRAM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MRAM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Everspin Technologies, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Everspin Technologies, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MRAM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 152.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $2 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MRAM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.5% for Everspin Technologies, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Everspin Technologies, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MRAM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MRAM are equal to 8.1%.

Life of production assets of 2.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Everspin Technologies, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MRAM is equal to 16.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $10.884 million for Everspin Technologies, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.094 million for Everspin Technologies, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Everspin Technologies, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
RMBS Rambus, Inc. 10.36 1.70  str.sell
CY Cypress Semico 14.95 10.48  sell
MU Micron Technol 41.62 329.12  str.buy
NVEC NVE Corporatio 95.40 37.10  str.sell
NXPI NXP Semiconduc 90.66 57.43  sell
MCHP Microchip Tech 85.42 66.53  sell
ON ON Semiconduct 21.64 55.67  str.buy

CONTACT US      

About X-FIN       Privacy policy       Terms of use      

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2019. All rigths reserved.