Intrinsic value of Marten Transport - MRTN

Previous Close

$19.05

  Intrinsic Value

$5.12

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-73%

Previous close

$19.05

 
Intrinsic value

$5.12

 
Up/down potential

-73%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MRTN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.90
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  671
  684
  700
  718
  738
  761
  785
  812
  841
  872
  906
  941
  980
  1,020
  1,064
  1,109
  1,158
  1,210
  1,264
  1,322
  1,382
  1,446
  1,514
  1,585
  1,660
  1,739
  1,822
  1,910
  2,002
  2,099
  2,201
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  621
  636
  652
  670
  691
  713
  737
  764
  792
  822
  855
  890
  926
  966
  1,007
  1,052
  1,098
  1,148
  1,200
  1,255
  1,313
  1,375
  1,439
  1,507
  1,579
  1,655
  1,734
  1,818
  1,906
  1,999
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  613
  621
  636
  652
  670
  691
  713
  737
  764
  792
  822
  855
  890
  926
  966
  1,007
  1,052
  1,098
  1,148
  1,200
  1,255
  1,313
  1,375
  1,439
  1,507
  1,579
  1,655
  1,734
  1,818
  1,906
  1,999
Operating income, $m
  58
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
EBITDA, $m
  140
  147
  150
  154
  158
  163
  169
  174
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  271
  284
  297
  310
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
  430
  450
  472
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
Earnings before tax, $m
  57
  63
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
Tax expense, $m
  24
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
Net income, $m
  33
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  654
  667
  682
  700
  720
  741
  765
  791
  820
  850
  883
  918
  955
  995
  1,037
  1,081
  1,129
  1,179
  1,232
  1,288
  1,347
  1,410
  1,475
  1,545
  1,618
  1,695
  1,776
  1,862
  1,951
  2,046
  2,145
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  654
  667
  682
  700
  720
  741
  765
  791
  820
  850
  883
  918
  955
  995
  1,037
  1,081
  1,129
  1,179
  1,232
  1,288
  1,347
  1,410
  1,475
  1,545
  1,618
  1,695
  1,776
  1,862
  1,951
  2,046
  2,145
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.026
  1.025
  1.026
  1.026
  1.025
  1.027
  1.026
  1.027
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.025
  1.026
  1.025
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
Average production assets, $m
  543
  554
  566
  581
  597
  615
  635
  657
  680
  706
  733
  762
  793
  825
  860
  898
  937
  979
  1,023
  1,069
  1,118
  1,170
  1,225
  1,282
  1,343
  1,407
  1,474
  1,545
  1,620
  1,698
  1,781
Working capital, $m
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
Total debt, $m
  8
  12
  18
  23
  30
  37
  45
  54
  63
  73
  84
  96
  108
  121
  135
  150
  166
  182
  200
  219
  238
  259
  281
  304
  328
  354
  381
  409
  439
  470
  503
Total liabilities, $m
  216
  221
  227
  232
  239
  246
  254
  263
  272
  282
  293
  305
  317
  330
  344
  359
  375
  391
  409
  428
  447
  468
  490
  513
  537
  563
  590
  618
  648
  679
  712
Total equity, $m
  437
  446
  456
  468
  481
  495
  511
  529
  548
  568
  590
  613
  638
  664
  692
  722
  754
  788
  823
  860
  900
  942
  986
  1,032
  1,081
  1,132
  1,186
  1,244
  1,304
  1,367
  1,433
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  653
  667
  683
  700
  720
  741
  765
  792
  820
  850
  883
  918
  955
  994
  1,036
  1,081
  1,129
  1,179
  1,232
  1,288
  1,347
  1,410
  1,476
  1,545
  1,618
  1,695
  1,776
  1,862
  1,952
  2,046
  2,145
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.018
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  33
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  82
  84
  86
  88
  91
  93
  96
  100
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  186
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  270
Funds from operations, $m
  147
  130
  133
  136
  139
  144
  148
  153
  158
  164
  170
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  216
  225
  235
  246
  257
  268
  281
  294
  307
  322
  337
  353
  369
  387
  406
Change in working capital, $m
  13
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  134
  129
  132
  135
  139
  143
  147
  152
  157
  162
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  348
  365
  382
  401
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -91
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -245
  -257
New CAPEX, $m
  -162
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -83
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -97
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -192
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -323
  -340
Free cash flow, $m
  37
  36
  35
  35
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  45
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -30
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -33
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  41
  40
  40
  41
  41
  42
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -28
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  32
  30
  29
  28
  27
  26
  25
  24
  24
  23
  23
  23
  23
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  31
  27
  25
  23
  21
  19
  17
  15
  14
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
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  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
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  0
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Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
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  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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  100.0
  100.0
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  100.0
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  100.0

Marten Transport, Ltd. is a temperature-sensitive truckload carrier. The Company focuses on transporting and distributing food and other consumer-packaged goods that require a temperature-controlled or insulated environment. The Company operates through four segments: Truckload, Dedicated, Intermodal and Brokerage. It operates throughout the United States and in parts of Canada and Mexico. The Company's medium-to-long-haul traffic lanes are between the Midwest and the West Coast, Southwest, Southeast, and the East Coast, as well as from California to the Pacific Northwest. It provides regional truckload carrier services in the Southeast, West Coast, Midwest, South Central and Northeast regions. It also offers loading and unloading activities, equipment detention and other ancillary services. The Company's Truckload segment provides a combination of regional short-haul and medium-to-long-haul full-load transportation services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Marten Transport (MRTN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 31.4
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -37
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 1.8%
Total Debt to Equity 1.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 7.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Return On Equity 7.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
EBITDA Margin 20.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.7%
Operating Margin 8.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Net Profit Margin 4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Effective Tax Rate 42.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.8%
Payout Ratio 9.1%

MRTN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MRTN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $671 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Marten Transport. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Marten Transport. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MRTN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MRTN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Marten Transport, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Marten Transport.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MRTN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MRTN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Marten Transport.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Marten Transport. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MRTN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MRTN are equal to 80.9%.

Life of production assets of 6.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Marten Transport operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MRTN is equal to 4.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $437 million for Marten Transport - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 54.308 million for Marten Transport is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Marten Transport at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Marten Transport tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-19-17 04:05PM  Associated Press]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-15-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-20-17 09:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ Marten Transport Announces Five-For-Three Stock Split   [Jun-15-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-09-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-20-17 04:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-14-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport meets 4Q profit forecasts   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Marten Transport, Ltd (MRTN) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-14-16 07:29AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-06-16 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-16-16 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-10-16 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-21-16 04:14PM  AP]
▶ Trucking Stocks Tumble on Downgrade, Pricing Outlook   [Apr-07-16 03:08PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-01-16 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of MRTN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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