Intrinsic value of Marten Transport - MRTN

Previous Close

$23.55

  Intrinsic Value

$2.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$23.55

 
Intrinsic value

$2.39

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MRTN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
Revenue, $m
  726
  756
  787
  821
  857
  894
  934
  977
  1,021
  1,068
  1,118
  1,170
  1,226
  1,284
  1,345
  1,410
  1,477
  1,549
  1,624
  1,703
  1,786
  1,873
  1,965
  2,062
  2,163
  2,270
  2,382
  2,500
  2,623
  2,753
Variable operating expenses, $m
  662
  689
  718
  749
  781
  816
  852
  891
  931
  974
  1,020
  1,067
  1,118
  1,171
  1,227
  1,286
  1,347
  1,413
  1,481
  1,553
  1,629
  1,709
  1,792
  1,880
  1,973
  2,070
  2,172
  2,280
  2,392
  2,511
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  662
  689
  718
  749
  781
  816
  852
  891
  931
  974
  1,020
  1,067
  1,118
  1,171
  1,227
  1,286
  1,347
  1,413
  1,481
  1,553
  1,629
  1,709
  1,792
  1,880
  1,973
  2,070
  2,172
  2,280
  2,392
  2,511
Operating income, $m
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
EBITDA, $m
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  250
  262
  274
  288
  302
  316
  332
  348
  365
  383
  402
  422
  443
  465
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
Earnings before tax, $m
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  198
  208
  218
Tax expense, $m
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Net income, $m
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  718
  747
  779
  812
  847
  885
  924
  966
  1,010
  1,057
  1,106
  1,158
  1,212
  1,270
  1,330
  1,394
  1,461
  1,532
  1,606
  1,684
  1,767
  1,853
  1,944
  2,039
  2,140
  2,245
  2,356
  2,472
  2,595
  2,723
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  718
  747
  779
  812
  847
  885
  924
  966
  1,010
  1,057
  1,106
  1,158
  1,212
  1,270
  1,330
  1,394
  1,461
  1,532
  1,606
  1,684
  1,767
  1,853
  1,944
  2,039
  2,140
  2,245
  2,356
  2,472
  2,595
  2,723
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.011
  1.012
  1.010
  1.011
  1.012
  1.010
  1.011
  1.011
  1.011
  1.010
  1.011
  1.010
  1.012
  1.011
  1.011
  1.011
  1.011
  1.011
  1.011
  1.011
  1.011
  1.011
  1.011
  1.011
  1.011
  1.011
  1.011
  1.011
  1.011
  1.011
Average production assets, $m
  587
  611
  637
  664
  693
  724
  756
  790
  826
  864
  905
  947
  992
  1,039
  1,088
  1,140
  1,195
  1,253
  1,314
  1,378
  1,445
  1,516
  1,590
  1,668
  1,750
  1,836
  1,927
  2,022
  2,122
  2,227
Working capital, $m
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
Total debt, $m
  7
  14
  22
  30
  38
  47
  56
  66
  77
  88
  100
  112
  125
  139
  154
  169
  185
  202
  220
  238
  258
  278
  300
  323
  347
  372
  399
  426
  456
  486
Total liabilities, $m
  172
  179
  186
  194
  203
  211
  221
  231
  241
  253
  264
  277
  290
  303
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384
  403
  422
  443
  465
  487
  511
  537
  563
  591
  620
  651
Total equity, $m
  546
  569
  593
  618
  645
  673
  703
  735
  769
  804
  842
  881
  923
  966
  1,012
  1,061
  1,112
  1,166
  1,222
  1,282
  1,344
  1,410
  1,479
  1,552
  1,628
  1,709
  1,793
  1,881
  1,975
  2,072
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  718
  748
  779
  812
  848
  884
  924
  966
  1,010
  1,057
  1,106
  1,158
  1,213
  1,269
  1,330
  1,394
  1,461
  1,532
  1,606
  1,685
  1,766
  1,853
  1,944
  2,039
  2,139
  2,246
  2,356
  2,472
  2,595
  2,723
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
  144
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
  212
  223
Funds from operations, $m
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  316
  331
  347
  364
  382
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  212
  221
  232
  243
  254
  267
  279
  293
  307
  322
  337
  354
  371
  389
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -140
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -261
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -317
Free cash flow, $m
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  89
  93
  98
  102
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Cash available for distribution, $m
  15
  13
  12
  12
  11
  11
  11
  10
  10
  10
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  14
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
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Marten Transport, Ltd. is a temperature-sensitive truckload carrier. The Company focuses on transporting and distributing food and other consumer-packaged goods that require a temperature-controlled or insulated environment. The Company operates through four segments: Truckload, Dedicated, Intermodal and Brokerage. It operates throughout the United States and in parts of Canada and Mexico. The Company's medium-to-long-haul traffic lanes are between the Midwest and the West Coast, Southwest, Southeast, and the East Coast, as well as from California to the Pacific Northwest. It provides regional truckload carrier services in the Southeast, West Coast, Midwest, South Central and Northeast regions. It also offers loading and unloading activities, equipment detention and other ancillary services. The Company's Truckload segment provides a combination of regional short-haul and medium-to-long-haul full-load transportation services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Marten Transport (MRTN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.8
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -45.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 1.8%
Total Debt to Equity 1.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 7.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Return On Equity 7.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
EBITDA Margin 20.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.7%
Operating Margin 8.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Net Profit Margin 4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Effective Tax Rate 42.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.8%
Payout Ratio 9.1%

MRTN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MRTN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $698 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Marten Transport. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Marten Transport. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MRTN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MRTN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Marten Transport, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Marten Transport.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MRTN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MRTN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Marten Transport.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Marten Transport. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MRTN stock is equal to 0.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MRTN are equal to 80.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Marten Transport operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MRTN is equal to -5.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $526 million for Marten Transport - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 55 million for Marten Transport is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Marten Transport at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Marten Transport Announces Second Quarter Results   [Jul-17-18 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-08-18 06:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport Announces First Quarter Results   [Apr-19-18 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is It Time To Buy Marten Transport Ltd (NASDAQ:MRTN)?   [Apr-18-18 09:49AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-07-18 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-12-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-19-17 04:05PM  Associated Press]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-15-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-20-17 09:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ Marten Transport Announces Five-For-Three Stock Split   [Jun-15-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-09-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-20-17 04:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-14-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport meets 4Q profit forecasts   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Marten Transport, Ltd (MRTN) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-14-16 07:29AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-06-16 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-16-16 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
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