Intrinsic value of Middlesex Water - MSEX

Previous Close

$48.27

  Intrinsic Value

$10.31

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-79%

Previous close

$48.27

 
Intrinsic value

$10.31

 
Up/down potential

-79%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MSEX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
Revenue, $m
  138
  146
  155
  163
  172
  182
  191
  202
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  275
  289
  304
  319
  336
  353
  371
  390
  410
  430
  452
  475
  499
  524
  551
  579
  608
Variable operating expenses, $m
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  78
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  90
  92
  94
  97
  99
  101
  103
  105
  108
  110
  112
  115
  117
  120
  123
  125
  128
  131
  134
  137
  140
  143
  146
Total operating expenses, $m
  97
  99
  102
  105
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  137
  141
  145
  150
  154
  158
  163
  168
  173
  179
  184
  190
  196
  202
  209
  215
  222
  229
Operating income, $m
  42
  47
  52
  58
  64
  70
  77
  84
  91
  99
  107
  115
  124
  134
  144
  154
  166
  177
  190
  203
  216
  231
  246
  262
  279
  297
  316
  336
  357
  379
EBITDA, $m
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  95
  103
  111
  120
  129
  139
  149
  160
  171
  183
  196
  209
  223
  238
  253
  270
  287
  305
  324
  344
  365
  388
  411
  436
  462
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
Earnings before tax, $m
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  64
  69
  75
  81
  87
  94
  101
  109
  117
  125
  134
  144
  154
  164
  175
  187
  199
  213
  226
  241
  256
  272
  289
Tax expense, $m
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  39
  42
  44
  47
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
Net income, $m
  24
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  92
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  176
  187
  199
  211

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  699
  739
  780
  824
  870
  917
  967
  1,019
  1,073
  1,130
  1,190
  1,253
  1,318
  1,387
  1,459
  1,534
  1,613
  1,696
  1,782
  1,873
  1,969
  2,069
  2,174
  2,284
  2,400
  2,522
  2,649
  2,783
  2,923
  3,070
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  699
  739
  780
  824
  870
  917
  967
  1,019
  1,073
  1,130
  1,190
  1,253
  1,318
  1,387
  1,459
  1,534
  1,613
  1,696
  1,782
  1,873
  1,969
  2,069
  2,174
  2,284
  2,400
  2,522
  2,649
  2,783
  2,923
  3,070
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.197
  0.198
  0.199
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.199
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
Average production assets, $m
  568
  600
  634
  669
  706
  745
  786
  828
  872
  918
  967
  1,018
  1,071
  1,127
  1,185
  1,246
  1,310
  1,378
  1,448
  1,522
  1,600
  1,681
  1,766
  1,856
  1,950
  2,048
  2,152
  2,261
  2,375
  2,494
Working capital, $m
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
Total debt, $m
  198
  224
  252
  280
  310
  341
  373
  407
  443
  480
  519
  560
  603
  647
  694
  744
  795
  849
  906
  965
  1,028
  1,093
  1,162
  1,234
  1,309
  1,389
  1,472
  1,559
  1,651
  1,747
Total liabilities, $m
  456
  482
  510
  538
  568
  599
  631
  665
  701
  738
  777
  818
  861
  905
  952
  1,002
  1,053
  1,107
  1,164
  1,223
  1,286
  1,351
  1,420
  1,492
  1,567
  1,647
  1,730
  1,817
  1,909
  2,005
Total equity, $m
  242
  256
  271
  286
  302
  318
  336
  354
  372
  392
  413
  435
  457
  481
  506
  532
  560
  588
  619
  650
  683
  718
  754
  793
  833
  875
  919
  966
  1,014
  1,065
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  698
  738
  781
  824
  870
  917
  967
  1,019
  1,073
  1,130
  1,190
  1,253
  1,318
  1,386
  1,458
  1,534
  1,613
  1,695
  1,783
  1,873
  1,969
  2,069
  2,174
  2,285
  2,400
  2,522
  2,649
  2,783
  2,923
  3,070
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.820
  0.880
  0.930
  0.980
  1.030
  1.070
  1.110
  1.150
  1.190
  1.220
  1.260
  1.290
  1.320
  1.350
  1.370
  1.400
  1.420
  1.440
  1.460
  1.480
  1.500
  1.520
  1.540
  1.560
  1.570
  1.590
  1.600
  1.610
  1.630
  1.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347
  0.347

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  24
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  92
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  176
  187
  199
  211
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  39
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
Funds from operations, $m
  43
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  98
  104
  112
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
  163
  173
  184
  195
  207
  220
  234
  248
  262
  278
  294
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  43
  47
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  164
  174
  185
  197
  209
  221
  235
  249
  264
  279
  296
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
New CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -129
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -171
  -181
  -189
  -199
Free cash flow, $m
  -5
  -5
  -3
  -1
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  60
  66
  71
  77
  83
  90
  97
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  160
  171
  182
  193
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  133
  142
Discount rate, %
  6.60
  6.93
  7.28
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.29
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.45
  13.07
  13.72
  14.41
  15.13
  15.88
  16.68
  17.51
  18.39
  19.31
  20.27
  21.29
  22.35
  23.47
  24.64
  25.87
  27.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  10
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Middlesex Water Company is a water utility company. The Company owns and operates regulated water utility and wastewater systems in New Jersey, Delaware and Pennsylvania. The Company also operates water and wastewater systems under contract on behalf of municipal and private clients in New Jersey and Delaware. The Company's segments include Regulated and Non-Regulated. The Regulated segment is engaged in the business of collecting, treating and distributing water on a retail and wholesale basis to residential, commercial, industrial and fire protection customers in parts of New Jersey, Delaware and Pennsylvania. The Non-Regulated segment primarily consists of non-regulated contract services for the operation and maintenance of municipal and private water and wastewater systems in New Jersey and Delaware. The Middlesex System treats, stores and distributes water for residential, commercial, industrial and fire protection purposes.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Middlesex Water (MSEX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.2
Price to Sales 5.9
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 80.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 61.1%
Total Debt to Equity 69.2%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital 6.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Equity 10.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 39.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.6%
Operating Margin 30.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 25.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.7%
Net Profit Margin 17.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Effective Tax Rate 32.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
Payout Ratio 56.5%

MSEX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MSEX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $130.775 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Middlesex Water. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Middlesex Water. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MSEX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.6%, whose default value for MSEX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Middlesex Water, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Middlesex Water.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MSEX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 13.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $76 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MSEX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Middlesex Water.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Middlesex Water. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MSEX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MSEX are equal to 410.3%.

Life of production assets of 36.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Middlesex Water operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MSEX is equal to -5.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $229.175 million for Middlesex Water - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.359 million for Middlesex Water is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Middlesex Water at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 4 Quality Stocks to Counter Market Volatility   [Nov-13-18 09:15AM  Zacks]
▶ Middlesex Water: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [03:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Middlesex Water: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [03:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Middlesex Water Company Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jul-26-18 01:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Middlesex Water: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-07-18 07:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Middlesex Water Company Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Apr-25-18 05:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Middlesex Water Company Rate Increase Approved   [Mar-27-18 01:02PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Middlesex Water posts 4Q profit   [Mar-09-18 03:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Best Utilities Dividend Stocks In NasdaqGM   [Feb-08-18 07:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Middlesex Water Company Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jan-29-18 04:42PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Middlesex Water posts 3Q profit   [Nov-02-17 05:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Middlesex Water Company Announces Dividend Increase of 5.9%   [Oct-25-17 02:41PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 5 Top Dividend Stocks in Water   [Aug-19-17 10:31AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Middlesex Water posts 2Q profit   [Aug-01-17 09:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Middlesex Water Company Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jul-26-17 11:54AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Middlesex Water Co. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 02:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Middlesex Water Co. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:25PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Middlesex Water Co. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 02:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Middlesex Water Company Announces Annual Meeting Results   [May-24-17 12:07PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Middlesex Water posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 02:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Middlesex Water Company Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Apr-20-17 12:00PM  GlobeNewswire]

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