Intrinsic value of MSG Networks Cl A - MSGN

Previous Close

$25.54

  Intrinsic Value

$2.74

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

Previous close

$25.54

 
Intrinsic value

$2.74

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MSGN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  689
  705
  723
  743
  766
  790
  817
  846
  878
  912
  948
  986
  1,027
  1,070
  1,117
  1,166
  1,217
  1,272
  1,330
  1,391
  1,456
  1,524
  1,595
  1,671
  1,750
  1,834
  1,922
  2,015
  2,113
  2,215
Variable operating expenses, $m
  401
  410
  419
  429
  441
  454
  468
  483
  499
  516
  488
  508
  529
  551
  575
  600
  627
  655
  685
  717
  750
  785
  822
  861
  902
  945
  990
  1,038
  1,088
  1,141
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  401
  410
  419
  429
  441
  454
  468
  483
  499
  516
  488
  508
  529
  551
  575
  600
  627
  655
  685
  717
  750
  785
  822
  861
  902
  945
  990
  1,038
  1,088
  1,141
Operating income, $m
  287
  295
  304
  314
  325
  337
  350
  364
  379
  395
  459
  478
  498
  519
  541
  565
  590
  617
  645
  675
  706
  739
  774
  810
  849
  889
  932
  977
  1,024
  1,074
EBITDA, $m
  342
  350
  359
  369
  381
  393
  406
  421
  436
  453
  471
  490
  510
  532
  555
  579
  605
  632
  661
  691
  724
  757
  793
  831
  870
  912
  955
  1,002
  1,050
  1,101
Interest expense (income), $m
  37
  71
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
Earnings before tax, $m
  217
  280
  288
  297
  306
  317
  329
  342
  356
  370
  433
  449
  467
  486
  506
  528
  550
  574
  600
  626
  654
  684
  715
  748
  783
  820
  858
  899
  941
  986
Tax expense, $m
  58
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  100
  117
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  221
  232
  243
  254
  266
Net income, $m
  158
  204
  210
  216
  224
  232
  240
  250
  260
  270
  316
  328
  341
  355
  370
  385
  402
  419
  438
  457
  478
  499
  522
  546
  572
  598
  626
  656
  687
  720

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  724
  740
  759
  781
  804
  830
  859
  889
  922
  957
  995
  1,036
  1,079
  1,124
  1,173
  1,224
  1,279
  1,336
  1,397
  1,461
  1,529
  1,601
  1,676
  1,755
  1,839
  1,927
  2,019
  2,117
  2,219
  2,327
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  724
  740
  759
  781
  804
  830
  859
  889
  922
  957
  995
  1,036
  1,079
  1,124
  1,173
  1,224
  1,279
  1,336
  1,397
  1,461
  1,529
  1,601
  1,676
  1,755
  1,839
  1,927
  2,019
  2,117
  2,219
  2,327
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.952
  0.953
  0.953
  0.951
  0.953
  0.952
  0.951
  0.952
  0.952
  0.953
  0.953
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.953
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
Average production assets, $m
  251
  257
  264
  271
  279
  288
  298
  309
  320
  333
  346
  360
  375
  391
  408
  425
  444
  464
  485
  508
  531
  556
  582
  610
  639
  669
  702
  736
  771
  809
Working capital, $m
  103
  105
  108
  111
  114
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  166
  174
  181
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  300
  315
  330
Total debt, $m
  287
  302
  319
  339
  360
  383
  409
  436
  466
  498
  532
  568
  607
  648
  692
  738
  787
  839
  893
  951
  1,012
  1,076
  1,144
  1,216
  1,291
  1,370
  1,453
  1,541
  1,633
  1,730
Total liabilities, $m
  651
  666
  683
  703
  724
  747
  773
  800
  830
  862
  896
  932
  971
  1,012
  1,056
  1,102
  1,151
  1,203
  1,257
  1,315
  1,376
  1,440
  1,508
  1,580
  1,655
  1,734
  1,817
  1,905
  1,997
  2,094
Total equity, $m
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  723
  740
  759
  781
  804
  830
  859
  889
  922
  958
  996
  1,036
  1,079
  1,124
  1,173
  1,224
  1,279
  1,337
  1,397
  1,461
  1,529
  1,600
  1,676
  1,756
  1,839
  1,927
  2,019
  2,117
  2,219
  2,327
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.970
  4.080
  4.210
  4.340
  4.470
  4.620
  4.760
  4.910
  5.050
  5.200
  5.340
  5.490
  5.630
  5.760
  5.900
  6.030
  6.150
  6.280
  6.390
  6.510
  6.620
  6.730
  6.830
  6.930
  7.020
  7.110
  7.200
  7.280
  7.360
  7.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  158
  204
  210
  216
  224
  232
  240
  250
  260
  270
  316
  328
  341
  355
  370
  385
  402
  419
  438
  457
  478
  499
  522
  546
  572
  598
  626
  656
  687
  720
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  55
  55
  55
  56
  56
  56
  56
  57
  57
  58
  12
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
Funds from operations, $m
  213
  259
  265
  272
  280
  288
  297
  306
  317
  328
  327
  340
  354
  368
  383
  399
  417
  435
  454
  474
  495
  518
  542
  567
  593
  621
  650
  680
  713
  747
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
Cash from operations, $m
  211
  257
  263
  269
  276
  284
  293
  302
  312
  323
  322
  334
  348
  362
  376
  392
  409
  427
  445
  465
  486
  508
  531
  555
  581
  608
  637
  667
  698
  731
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -63
Free cash flow, $m
  198
  243
  247
  253
  259
  266
  273
  281
  290
  300
  298
  309
  321
  333
  347
  361
  376
  392
  409
  427
  445
  465
  486
  508
  532
  556
  582
  609
  638
  668
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,026
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  882
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -144
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  54
  258
  265
  272
  280
  289
  299
  309
  320
  332
  332
  345
  359
  374
  390
  407
  425
  444
  463
  484
  506
  530
  554
  580
  607
  635
  666
  697
  730
  765
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,040
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -962
  256
  263
  270
  278
  287
  296
  306
  317
  328
  328
  341
  355
  370
  385
  402
  419
  438
  457
  478
  500
  522
  547
  572
  599
  627
  656
  687
  720
  755
Discount rate, %
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.06
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.71
  32.25
  33.86
  35.55
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
  43.22
  45.38
  47.65
  50.03
  52.53
  55.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -849
  197
  174
  152
  131
  111
  93
  77
  62
  50
  37
  29
  22
  16
  11
  8
  5
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
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  50.0
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MSG Networks Inc., formerly The Madison Square Garden Company, is engaged in sports production, and content development and distribution. The Company owns and operates two regional sports and entertainment networks, MSG Network (MSGN) and MSG+, collectively MSG Networks. Its networks are distributed throughout its territory, which includes all of New York State and significant portions of New Jersey and Connecticut, as well as parts of Pennsylvania. The Company delivers live games of the New York Knicks (the Knicks) of the National Basketball Association (NBA); the New York Rangers (the Rangers), New York Islanders (the Islanders), New Jersey Devils (the Devils) and Buffalo Sabres (the Sabres) of the National Hockey League (NHL); the New York Liberty (the Liberty) of the Women's National Basketball Association; the New York Red Bulls (the Red Bulls) of Major League Soccer (MLS), and the Westchester Knicks of the National Basketball Association Developmental League.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MSG Networks Cl A (MSGN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.5
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book -2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 10
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 38%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -131.5%
Total Debt to Equity -139.1%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 23.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Return On Total Capital 45.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Return On Equity -16.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.6%
EBITDA Margin 47.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.9%
Operating Margin 46.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 40.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.4%
Net Profit Margin 24.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.1%
Effective Tax Rate 39.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

MSGN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MSGN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $675.352 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MSG Networks Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of MSG Networks Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MSGN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.4%, whose default value for MSGN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MSG Networks Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MSG Networks Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MSGN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 58.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MSGN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for MSG Networks Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MSG Networks Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MSGN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MSGN are equal to 36.5%.

Life of production assets of 46.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MSG Networks Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MSGN is equal to 14.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-944.207 million for MSG Networks Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 61.017 million for MSG Networks Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MSG Networks Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Hollywood Cash from Azoff, Ballmer Fuels Election Face-Off   [08:47AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ MSG Networks: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ Trade of the Day: MSG Networks Inc. (MSGN)   [Oct-30-18 09:39AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ [$$] NYC Councilman Aims to Regulate Use of Face-Screening Technology   [Oct-14-18 08:33PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Mario Gabelli's Gabelli Asset Fund 2nd Quarter Commentary   [Sep-14-18 03:00PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ New York Life Insurance President Lists NYC Condo for $11.95 Million   [Sep-13-18 04:14PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Mario Gabelli Comments on Madison Square Garden Co.   [Aug-30-18 04:33PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Madison Square Garden Q4 Earnings Preview   [Aug-15-18 02:38PM  Benzinga]
▶ MSG Networks: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ MSG Networks Q4 Earnings Preview   [Aug-14-18 02:41PM  Benzinga]
▶ Media, Fast Food and Retail in the Blitz   [Jun-29-18 07:04AM  CNBC]
▶ [$$] Madison Square Garden Owner to Explore Spinoff of Knicks, Rangers   [Jun-27-18 07:10PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] MTA Board Pressed Lhota on Potential Conflicts of Interest at Meeting   [Jun-06-18 08:38PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ 4 Stocks to Bet on as Sports Betting Is Legalized   [Jun-01-18 04:20PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ BP, Boston Scientific, Madison Square Garden & Dillard's   [May-17-18 01:19PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ TV pioneer Kay Koplovitz on changing the cable industry   [May-16-18 02:55PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ MSG Networks: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [09:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ MSG Networks Q3 Earnings Preview   [May-02-18 03:09PM  Benzinga]
▶ Madison Square Garden Q3 Earnings Preview   [May-01-18 03:44PM  Benzinga]
▶ Is MSG Networks Incs (NYSE:MSGN) CEO Salary Justified?   [Mar-15-18 04:06PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 3 Stocks Riding This Big Millennial Trend   [Mar-10-18 11:50AM  Motley Fool]

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