Intrinsic value of MicroStrategy - MSTR

Previous Close

$136.00

  Intrinsic Value

$164.93

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+21%

  Value-price divergence*

+143%

Previous close

$136.00

 
Intrinsic value

$164.93

 
Up/down potential

+21%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+143%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MSTR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.40
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  512
  522
  534
  548
  563
  580
  599
  620
  642
  666
  691
  718
  748
  779
  812
  847
  884
  923
  964
  1,008
  1,055
  1,104
  1,155
  1,209
  1,267
  1,327
  1,391
  1,457
  1,528
  1,602
  1,680
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  391
  400
  410
  421
  434
  448
  463
  480
  498
  517
  537
  559
  582
  607
  633
  661
  690
  721
  754
  789
  825
  864
  905
  948
  993
  1,040
  1,090
  1,143
  1,198
  1,256
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  405
  391
  400
  410
  421
  434
  448
  463
  480
  498
  517
  537
  559
  582
  607
  633
  661
  690
  721
  754
  789
  825
  864
  905
  948
  993
  1,040
  1,090
  1,143
  1,198
  1,256
Operating income, $m
  108
  132
  135
  138
  142
  146
  151
  156
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  205
  213
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  305
  319
  334
  350
  367
  385
  404
  423
EBITDA, $m
  125
  147
  150
  154
  158
  163
  169
  174
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  248
  260
  271
  284
  297
  310
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
  430
  450
  472
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
Earnings before tax, $m
  113
  132
  136
  140
  144
  148
  152
  157
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  212
  221
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  286
  300
  313
  328
  343
  360
  376
  394
  413
Tax expense, $m
  22
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  112
Net income, $m
  91
  96
  100
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  176
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  239
  251
  262
  275
  288
  302

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  589
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  768
  183
  187
  192
  197
  203
  210
  217
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  284
  296
  309
  323
  337
  353
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  486
  510
  534
  560
  587
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  179
  183
  187
  192
  197
  203
  210
  217
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  284
  296
  309
  323
  337
  353
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  486
  510
  534
  560
  587
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.860
  2.852
  2.856
  2.854
  2.858
  2.857
  2.852
  2.857
  2.866
  2.858
  2.855
  2.861
  2.866
  2.864
  2.859
  2.861
  2.861
  2.858
  2.861
  2.856
  2.859
  2.860
  2.859
  2.858
  2.860
  2.860
  2.862
  2.857
  2.861
  2.861
  2.862
Average production assets, $m
  75
  76
  78
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
Working capital, $m
  500
  -91
  -93
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -292
Total debt, $m
  0
  -52
  -48
  -44
  -39
  -33
  -27
  -21
  -14
  -7
  1
  10
  19
  29
  39
  50
  62
  74
  88
  101
  116
  131
  148
  165
  183
  202
  222
  243
  265
  288
  313
Total liabilities, $m
  216
  164
  168
  172
  177
  183
  189
  195
  202
  209
  217
  226
  235
  245
  255
  266
  278
  290
  304
  317
  332
  347
  364
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  529
Total equity, $m
  552
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  768
  182
  187
  191
  197
  203
  210
  217
  224
  232
  241
  251
  261
  272
  283
  296
  309
  322
  338
  352
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  487
  510
  534
  560
  588
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -2.830
  -2.560
  -2.270
  -1.960
  -1.640
  -1.310
  -0.970
  -0.630
  -0.280
  0.060
  0.400
  0.740
  1.070
  1.390
  1.700
  2.010
  2.310
  2.590
  2.870
  3.140
  3.400
  3.650
  3.890
  4.120
  4.340
  4.560
  4.760
  4.960
  5.140
  5.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.207
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  91
  96
  100
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  176
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  239
  251
  262
  275
  288
  302
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
Funds from operations, $m
  108
  111
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  222
  232
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  305
  319
  335
  351
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
Cash from operations, $m
  111
  113
  117
  120
  124
  128
  132
  136
  141
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  302
  317
  332
  348
  364
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Cash from investing activities, $m
  4
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
Free cash flow, $m
  115
  96
  100
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  157
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  254
  266
  279
  292
  306
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -52
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  -52
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  110
  45
  104
  107
  110
  114
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  315
  331
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -97
  -55
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  589
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  579
  104
  107
  110
  114
  117
  122
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  181
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299
  313
  328
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  555
  95
  93
  91
  88
  85
  82
  79
  75
  71
  67
  63
  58
  54
  49
  44
  39
  35
  30
  26
  22
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
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MicroStrategy Incorporated is a provider of enterprise software platforms around the world. The Company is engaged in the design, development, marketing and sales of its software platform through licensing arrangements, and cloud-based subscriptions and related services. It focuses on providing enterprise customers with software platform and services for deploying intelligence applications. Its platform, MicroStrategy 10, consolidates analytics and mobility in a single platform, available both as on-premise software and as a hosted service offering in MicroStrategy Cloud. Its enterprise platform combines business intelligence functionality with data discovery, mobile analytics and identity intelligence generated by digital credentials. MicroStrategy 10 consists of MicroStrategy Analytics, MicroStrategy Mobile and Usher. MicroStrategy Analytics offers solutions to organizations to analyze a range of data and distribute actionable business insight throughout an enterprise.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MicroStrategy (MSTR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.1
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -84.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -34%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Return On Total Capital 18.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Return On Equity 18.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 81.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.8%
EBITDA Margin 25.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Operating Margin 20.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 22.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Net Profit Margin 17.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Effective Tax Rate 19.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

MSTR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MSTR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $512 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MicroStrategy. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of MicroStrategy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MSTR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MSTR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MicroStrategy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MicroStrategy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MSTR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MSTR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for MicroStrategy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MicroStrategy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MSTR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MSTR are equal to 14.6%.

Life of production assets of 4.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MicroStrategy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MSTR is equal to -17.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $552 million for MicroStrategy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.45 million for MicroStrategy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MicroStrategy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ MicroStrategy to Present at Upcoming Technology Conferences   [Aug-29-17 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Why Shares of MicroStrategy Inc. Fell 30% in July   [Aug-10-17 09:29AM  Motley Fool]
▶ China holds drill to shut down 'harmful' websites   [Aug-03-17 09:58PM  Reuters]
▶ MicroStrategy misses 2Q profit forecasts   [12:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MicroStrategy, Inc. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 05:25PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MicroStrategy, Inc. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 03:42PM  Capital Cube]
▶ MicroStrategy Unveils MicroStrategy 10.8   [Jul-05-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ MicroStrategy on Amazon Web Services (AWS) Now Available   [May-30-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MicroStrategy, Inc. : May 2, 2017   [May-02-17 04:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ MicroStrategy posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 04:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ MicroStrategy Announces Integration with Alation   [Apr-18-17 08:05AM  Business Wire]
▶ MicroStrategy Unveils MicroStrategy 10.7   [Mar-27-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ MicroStrategy to Present at Upcoming Technology Conferences   [Feb-22-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why MicroStrategy Popped 15% in 2016   [Feb-11-17 07:42PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why MicroStrategy Popped 15% in 2016   [07:42PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ MicroStrategy Revenues Slide on Foreign Currency Headwinds   [Feb-01-17 03:50PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] Comings & Goings   [10:26AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Paul Zolfaghari Joins Carrick Capital Partners   [Jan-11-17 10:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ InfoCepts Team of Consultants Certified on MicroStrategy 10   [Jan-09-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ MicroStrategy Unveils MicroStrategy 10.6   [Dec-19-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of MSTR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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