Intrinsic value of Match Group - MTCH

Previous Close

$25.69

  Intrinsic Value

$25.80

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

0%

  Value-price divergence*

+2%

Previous close

$25.69

 
Intrinsic value

$25.80

 
Up/down potential

0%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+2%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MTCH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.90
  12.70
  11.93
  11.24
  10.61
  10.05
  9.55
  9.09
  8.68
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.42
  7.17
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.28
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
Revenue, $m
  1,223
  1,378
  1,543
  1,716
  1,898
  2,089
  2,288
  2,497
  2,713
  2,939
  3,174
  3,417
  3,671
  3,934
  4,208
  4,493
  4,788
  5,096
  5,416
  5,750
  6,097
  6,459
  6,836
  7,230
  7,641
  8,070
  8,518
  8,986
  9,476
  9,988
  10,523
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  595
  652
  712
  774
  840
  909
  980
  1,055
  1,133
  1,214
  1,177
  1,264
  1,355
  1,449
  1,547
  1,649
  1,755
  1,865
  1,980
  2,100
  2,224
  2,354
  2,490
  2,631
  2,779
  2,933
  3,095
  3,263
  3,440
  3,624
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  394
  403
  414
  424
  434
  445
  456
  468
  480
  492
  504
  516
  529
  543
  556
  570
  584
  599
  614
  629
  645
  661
  678
  695
  712
  730
  748
  767
  786
  805
Total operating expenses, $m
  917
  989
  1,055
  1,126
  1,198
  1,274
  1,354
  1,436
  1,523
  1,613
  1,706
  1,681
  1,780
  1,884
  1,992
  2,103
  2,219
  2,339
  2,464
  2,594
  2,729
  2,869
  3,015
  3,168
  3,326
  3,491
  3,663
  3,843
  4,030
  4,226
  4,429
Operating income, $m
  306
  389
  487
  591
  700
  815
  934
  1,060
  1,190
  1,327
  1,468
  1,737
  1,890
  2,050
  2,216
  2,389
  2,569
  2,757
  2,952
  3,156
  3,368
  3,590
  3,821
  4,062
  4,315
  4,579
  4,855
  5,143
  5,446
  5,762
  6,094
EBITDA, $m
  360
  522
  621
  726
  837
  953
  1,075
  1,202
  1,334
  1,473
  1,616
  1,766
  1,922
  2,084
  2,252
  2,428
  2,610
  2,801
  2,999
  3,205
  3,421
  3,645
  3,880
  4,125
  4,381
  4,648
  4,928
  5,221
  5,527
  5,848
  6,184
Interest expense (income), $m
  82
  81
  95
  109
  124
  140
  157
  175
  193
  212
  232
  252
  274
  296
  319
  343
  368
  394
  421
  449
  478
  508
  540
  573
  608
  644
  681
  721
  762
  805
  849
Earnings before tax, $m
  232
  308
  393
  482
  576
  674
  777
  885
  998
  1,115
  1,237
  1,484
  1,617
  1,754
  1,897
  2,046
  2,201
  2,363
  2,531
  2,707
  2,890
  3,081
  3,281
  3,489
  3,707
  3,935
  4,173
  4,423
  4,684
  4,958
  5,244
Tax expense, $m
  60
  83
  106
  130
  155
  182
  210
  239
  269
  301
  334
  401
  437
  474
  512
  553
  594
  638
  683
  731
  780
  832
  886
  942
  1,001
  1,062
  1,127
  1,194
  1,265
  1,339
  1,416
Net income, $m
  171
  225
  287
  352
  420
  492
  567
  646
  728
  814
  903
  1,084
  1,180
  1,281
  1,385
  1,494
  1,607
  1,725
  1,848
  1,976
  2,110
  2,249
  2,395
  2,547
  2,706
  2,873
  3,047
  3,229
  3,419
  3,619
  3,828

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  254
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,049
  2,024
  2,265
  2,520
  2,787
  3,068
  3,360
  3,666
  3,984
  4,316
  4,660
  5,018
  5,390
  5,777
  6,179
  6,597
  7,031
  7,483
  7,954
  8,443
  8,953
  9,485
  10,039
  10,617
  11,220
  11,850
  12,508
  13,196
  13,914
  14,666
  15,453
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,795
  2,024
  2,265
  2,520
  2,787
  3,068
  3,360
  3,666
  3,984
  4,316
  4,660
  5,018
  5,390
  5,777
  6,179
  6,597
  7,031
  7,483
  7,954
  8,443
  8,953
  9,485
  10,039
  10,617
  11,220
  11,850
  12,508
  13,196
  13,914
  14,666
  15,453
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
  0.681
Average production assets, $m
  303
  340
  381
  424
  469
  516
  565
  617
  670
  726
  784
  844
  907
  972
  1,039
  1,110
  1,183
  1,259
  1,338
  1,420
  1,506
  1,595
  1,689
  1,786
  1,887
  1,993
  2,104
  2,220
  2,341
  2,467
  2,599
Working capital, $m
  176
  -88
  -99
  -110
  -121
  -134
  -146
  -160
  -174
  -188
  -203
  -219
  -235
  -252
  -269
  -288
  -306
  -326
  -347
  -368
  -390
  -413
  -438
  -463
  -489
  -516
  -545
  -575
  -606
  -639
  -673
Total debt, $m
  1,176
  1,375
  1,584
  1,804
  2,035
  2,278
  2,531
  2,795
  3,070
  3,357
  3,655
  3,965
  4,287
  4,621
  4,969
  5,330
  5,706
  6,097
  6,504
  6,927
  7,368
  7,828
  8,307
  8,808
  9,329
  9,874
  10,443
  11,038
  11,660
  12,310
  12,991
Total liabilities, $m
  1,552
  1,751
  1,960
  2,180
  2,411
  2,654
  2,907
  3,171
  3,446
  3,733
  4,031
  4,341
  4,663
  4,997
  5,345
  5,706
  6,082
  6,473
  6,880
  7,303
  7,744
  8,204
  8,683
  9,184
  9,705
  10,250
  10,819
  11,414
  12,036
  12,686
  13,367
Total equity, $m
  497
  273
  306
  340
  376
  414
  454
  495
  538
  583
  629
  677
  728
  780
  834
  891
  949
  1,010
  1,074
  1,140
  1,209
  1,280
  1,355
  1,433
  1,515
  1,600
  1,689
  1,781
  1,878
  1,980
  2,086
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,049
  2,024
  2,266
  2,520
  2,787
  3,068
  3,361
  3,666
  3,984
  4,316
  4,660
  5,018
  5,391
  5,777
  6,179
  6,597
  7,031
  7,483
  7,954
  8,443
  8,953
  9,484
  10,038
  10,617
  11,220
  11,850
  12,508
  13,195
  13,914
  14,666
  15,453
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.366
  5.030
  5.180
  5.300
  5.410
  5.500
  5.580
  5.650
  5.710
  5.760
  5.810
  5.850
  5.890
  5.930
  5.960
  5.990
  6.010
  6.040
  6.060
  6.080
  6.100
  6.110
  6.130
  6.150
  6.160
  6.170
  6.180
  6.200
  6.210
  6.220
  6.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135
  0.135

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  171
  225
  287
  352
  420
  492
  567
  646
  728
  814
  903
  1,084
  1,180
  1,281
  1,385
  1,494
  1,607
  1,725
  1,848
  1,976
  2,110
  2,249
  2,395
  2,547
  2,706
  2,873
  3,047
  3,229
  3,419
  3,619
  3,828
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  54
  132
  134
  135
  137
  139
  140
  142
  144
  146
  148
  29
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
Funds from operations, $m
  241
  358
  420
  487
  557
  631
  708
  788
  872
  960
  1,051
  1,113
  1,212
  1,314
  1,421
  1,532
  1,648
  1,769
  1,895
  2,026
  2,162
  2,305
  2,454
  2,609
  2,772
  2,942
  3,120
  3,306
  3,501
  3,705
  3,919
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
Cash from operations, $m
  234
  367
  431
  498
  569
  643
  720
  802
  886
  974
  1,066
  1,129
  1,228
  1,331
  1,439
  1,551
  1,667
  1,789
  1,915
  2,047
  2,184
  2,328
  2,478
  2,635
  2,798
  2,969
  3,149
  3,336
  3,532
  3,738
  3,953
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
New CAPEX, $m
  -49
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -31
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
Free cash flow, $m
  203
  319
  378
  442
  509
  579
  653
  730
  811
  895
  983
  1,041
  1,136
  1,235
  1,337
  1,444
  1,555
  1,671
  1,792
  1,918
  2,049
  2,186
  2,329
  2,479
  2,635
  2,798
  2,968
  3,147
  3,334
  3,530
  3,735
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -50
  199
  209
  220
  231
  242
  253
  264
  275
  287
  298
  310
  322
  335
  348
  361
  376
  391
  407
  424
  441
  460
  479
  500
  522
  545
  569
  595
  622
  650
  680
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -32
  199
  209
  220
  231
  242
  253
  264
  275
  287
  298
  310
  322
  335
  348
  361
  376
  391
  407
  424
  441
  460
  479
  500
  522
  545
  569
  595
  622
  650
  680
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  165
  518
  587
  662
  740
  822
  907
  995
  1,086
  1,182
  1,281
  1,351
  1,458
  1,569
  1,685
  1,806
  1,931
  2,062
  2,199
  2,341
  2,490
  2,646
  2,808
  2,979
  3,156
  3,343
  3,538
  3,742
  3,956
  4,180
  4,415
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -218
  -30
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  254
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  741
  555
  628
  704
  784
  867
  953
  1,043
  1,137
  1,234
  1,303
  1,408
  1,517
  1,631
  1,749
  1,873
  2,001
  2,135
  2,275
  2,421
  2,574
  2,734
  2,900
  3,075
  3,258
  3,449
  3,649
  3,859
  4,079
  4,309
Discount rate, %
 
  8.00
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  687
  472
  487
  494
  493
  484
  467
  444
  416
  383
  339
  302
  265
  228
  193
  160
  130
  103
  80
  61
  45
  33
  23
  16
  10
  7
  4
  3
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Match Group, Inc., incorporated on February 13, 2009, is a provider of dating products. The Company operates in the Dating segment. The Dating segment consists of all of its dating businesses across the globe. As of March 31, 2017, the Company operated a portfolio of over 45 brands, including Match, Tinder, PlentyOfFish, Meetic, OkCupid, Pairs, Twoo, OurTime, BlackPeopleMeet and LoveScout24, each designed to manage its users' likelihood of finding a romantic connection. As of March 31, 2017, the Company offered its dating products in 42 languages across more than 190 countries.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Match Group (MTCH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.4
Price to Sales 5.4
Price to Book 13.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 28.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 35.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 69%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 19.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 236.6%
Total Debt to Equity 236.6%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Return On Total Capital 10.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Return On Equity 44.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 80.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 83.3%
EBITDA Margin 30.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.4%
Operating Margin 25%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 19%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.3%
Net Profit Margin 14%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Effective Tax Rate 25.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

MTCH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MTCH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1223 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Match Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Match Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MTCH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8%, whose default value for MTCH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Match Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Match Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MTCH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 44.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $384 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MTCH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for Match Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Match Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MTCH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MTCH are equal to 24.7%.

Life of production assets of 28.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Match Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MTCH is equal to -6.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $497 million for Match Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 264.799 million for Match Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Match Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.8 billion.

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▶ ETFs with exposure to Match Group, Inc. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 02:55PM  Capital Cube]
▶ eHarmony CEO shares dating tips on International Kissing Day   [Jul-06-17 10:50AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Match Group, Inc. : June 27, 2017   [Jun-27-17 03:26PM  Capital Cube]
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Financial statements of MTCH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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