Intrinsic value of Mettler-Toledo International - MTD

Previous Close

$562.11

  Intrinsic Value

$365.91

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-35%

Previous close

$562.11

 
Intrinsic value

$365.91

 
Up/down potential

-35%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MTD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 14.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.62
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
Revenue, $m
  2,959
  3,203
  3,457
  3,720
  3,994
  4,279
  4,575
  4,882
  5,202
  5,535
  5,881
  6,241
  6,617
  7,008
  7,416
  7,842
  8,286
  8,751
  9,235
  9,742
  10,272
  10,826
  11,405
  12,012
  12,647
  13,312
  14,009
  14,739
  15,503
  16,305
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,932
  2,085
  2,244
  2,409
  2,580
  2,759
  2,944
  3,137
  3,338
  3,546
  3,686
  3,912
  4,148
  4,393
  4,649
  4,916
  5,194
  5,485
  5,789
  6,107
  6,439
  6,786
  7,150
  7,530
  7,928
  8,345
  8,781
  9,239
  9,718
  10,221
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  346
  354
  362
  370
  378
  386
  395
  403
  412
  421
  431
  440
  450
  460
  470
  480
  491
  502
  513
  524
  535
  547
  559
  572
  584
  597
  610
  623
  637
  651
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,278
  2,439
  2,606
  2,779
  2,958
  3,145
  3,339
  3,540
  3,750
  3,967
  4,117
  4,352
  4,598
  4,853
  5,119
  5,396
  5,685
  5,987
  6,302
  6,631
  6,974
  7,333
  7,709
  8,102
  8,512
  8,942
  9,391
  9,862
  10,355
  10,872
Operating income, $m
  681
  764
  851
  942
  1,036
  1,134
  1,236
  1,342
  1,452
  1,567
  1,764
  1,889
  2,019
  2,155
  2,297
  2,446
  2,601
  2,764
  2,934
  3,111
  3,297
  3,492
  3,697
  3,911
  4,135
  4,370
  4,617
  4,876
  5,148
  5,433
EBITDA, $m
  901
  997
  1,096
  1,199
  1,306
  1,418
  1,534
  1,655
  1,781
  1,912
  2,049
  2,191
  2,340
  2,495
  2,657
  2,826
  3,003
  3,188
  3,381
  3,584
  3,796
  4,017
  4,250
  4,493
  4,749
  5,016
  5,297
  5,591
  5,900
  6,224
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  53
  62
  72
  82
  92
  103
  114
  126
  138
  151
  164
  178
  192
  207
  223
  239
  256
  273
  292
  311
  331
  352
  374
  397
  421
  446
  473
  500
  529
  560
Earnings before tax, $m
  628
  702
  780
  860
  943
  1,031
  1,121
  1,215
  1,314
  1,416
  1,599
  1,711
  1,827
  1,948
  2,075
  2,207
  2,346
  2,490
  2,642
  2,800
  2,966
  3,140
  3,323
  3,514
  3,714
  3,924
  4,145
  4,376
  4,619
  4,873
Tax expense, $m
  170
  190
  210
  232
  255
  278
  303
  328
  355
  382
  432
  462
  493
  526
  560
  596
  633
  672
  713
  756
  801
  848
  897
  949
  1,003
  1,060
  1,119
  1,181
  1,247
  1,316
Net income, $m
  459
  513
  569
  628
  689
  752
  818
  887
  959
  1,034
  1,168
  1,249
  1,334
  1,422
  1,515
  1,611
  1,712
  1,818
  1,929
  2,044
  2,165
  2,292
  2,426
  2,565
  2,711
  2,865
  3,026
  3,194
  3,372
  3,558

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,768
  2,996
  3,234
  3,480
  3,736
  4,003
  4,279
  4,567
  4,866
  5,177
  5,501
  5,838
  6,190
  6,556
  6,938
  7,336
  7,752
  8,186
  8,639
  9,113
  9,609
  10,127
  10,669
  11,237
  11,831
  12,453
  13,105
  13,787
  14,503
  15,252
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,768
  2,996
  3,234
  3,480
  3,736
  4,003
  4,279
  4,567
  4,866
  5,177
  5,501
  5,838
  6,190
  6,556
  6,938
  7,336
  7,752
  8,186
  8,639
  9,113
  9,609
  10,127
  10,669
  11,237
  11,831
  12,453
  13,105
  13,787
  14,503
  15,252
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
Average production assets, $m
  1,435
  1,554
  1,677
  1,804
  1,937
  2,075
  2,219
  2,368
  2,523
  2,684
  2,852
  3,027
  3,209
  3,399
  3,597
  3,803
  4,019
  4,244
  4,479
  4,725
  4,982
  5,251
  5,532
  5,826
  6,134
  6,456
  6,794
  7,148
  7,519
  7,908
Working capital, $m
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  156
  166
  177
  188
  200
  212
  224
  237
  251
  265
  280
  296
  312
  329
  346
  365
  384
  405
  426
  448
  472
  496
  522
Total debt, $m
  1,150
  1,329
  1,515
  1,709
  1,910
  2,119
  2,336
  2,562
  2,797
  3,041
  3,295
  3,560
  3,836
  4,123
  4,423
  4,736
  5,062
  5,403
  5,759
  6,131
  6,520
  6,927
  7,352
  7,798
  8,264
  8,753
  9,264
  9,800
  10,362
  10,950
Total liabilities, $m
  2,173
  2,352
  2,538
  2,732
  2,933
  3,142
  3,359
  3,585
  3,820
  4,064
  4,318
  4,583
  4,859
  5,146
  5,446
  5,759
  6,085
  6,426
  6,782
  7,154
  7,543
  7,950
  8,375
  8,821
  9,287
  9,776
  10,287
  10,823
  11,385
  11,973
Total equity, $m
  595
  644
  695
  748
  803
  861
  920
  982
  1,046
  1,113
  1,183
  1,255
  1,331
  1,409
  1,492
  1,577
  1,667
  1,760
  1,857
  1,959
  2,066
  2,177
  2,294
  2,416
  2,544
  2,677
  2,817
  2,964
  3,118
  3,279
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,768
  2,996
  3,233
  3,480
  3,736
  4,003
  4,279
  4,567
  4,866
  5,177
  5,501
  5,838
  6,190
  6,555
  6,938
  7,336
  7,752
  8,186
  8,639
  9,113
  9,609
  10,127
  10,669
  11,237
  11,831
  12,453
  13,104
  13,787
  14,503
  15,252
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.930
  2.060
  2.180
  2.280
  2.380
  2.460
  2.540
  2.610
  2.670
  2.730
  2.790
  2.840
  2.880
  2.930
  2.970
  3.000
  3.040
  3.070
  3.100
  3.130
  3.160
  3.180
  3.210
  3.230
  3.250
  3.270
  3.290
  3.310
  3.320
  3.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  459
  513
  569
  628
  689
  752
  818
  887
  959
  1,034
  1,168
  1,249
  1,334
  1,422
  1,515
  1,611
  1,712
  1,818
  1,929
  2,044
  2,165
  2,292
  2,426
  2,565
  2,711
  2,865
  3,026
  3,194
  3,372
  3,558
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  220
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  299
  313
  329
  345
  285
  303
  321
  340
  360
  380
  402
  424
  448
  472
  498
  525
  553
  583
  613
  646
  679
  715
  752
  791
Funds from operations, $m
  679
  745
  813
  885
  959
  1,036
  1,117
  1,201
  1,288
  1,379
  1,453
  1,552
  1,655
  1,762
  1,874
  1,992
  2,114
  2,242
  2,376
  2,517
  2,664
  2,818
  2,979
  3,148
  3,325
  3,510
  3,705
  3,909
  4,123
  4,348
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
Cash from operations, $m
  671
  737
  805
  876
  950
  1,027
  1,108
  1,191
  1,278
  1,368
  1,442
  1,540
  1,643
  1,750
  1,861
  1,978
  2,100
  2,227
  2,361
  2,501
  2,647
  2,800
  2,960
  3,128
  3,304
  3,489
  3,683
  3,886
  4,099
  4,323
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -132
  -144
  -155
  -168
  -180
  -194
  -208
  -222
  -237
  -252
  -268
  -285
  -303
  -321
  -340
  -360
  -380
  -402
  -424
  -448
  -472
  -498
  -525
  -553
  -583
  -613
  -646
  -679
  -715
  -752
New CAPEX, $m
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -207
  -216
  -225
  -235
  -246
  -257
  -269
  -281
  -294
  -308
  -323
  -338
  -354
  -371
  -389
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -246
  -262
  -278
  -296
  -313
  -332
  -351
  -371
  -392
  -413
  -436
  -460
  -485
  -511
  -538
  -567
  -596
  -627
  -659
  -694
  -729
  -767
  -806
  -847
  -891
  -936
  -984
  -1,033
  -1,086
  -1,141
Free cash flow, $m
  425
  475
  527
  581
  637
  696
  757
  820
  886
  955
  1,005
  1,080
  1,158
  1,239
  1,323
  1,412
  1,504
  1,601
  1,701
  1,807
  1,917
  2,033
  2,154
  2,281
  2,414
  2,553
  2,699
  2,853
  3,013
  3,182
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  170
  179
  186
  194
  201
  209
  217
  226
  235
  244
  254
  265
  276
  287
  300
  313
  326
  341
  356
  372
  389
  407
  426
  445
  466
  488
  512
  536
  562
  589
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  170
  179
  186
  194
  201
  209
  217
  226
  235
  244
  254
  265
  276
  287
  300
  313
  326
  341
  356
  372
  389
  407
  426
  445
  466
  488
  512
  536
  562
  589
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  595
  654
  713
  774
  838
  905
  974
  1,046
  1,121
  1,199
  1,260
  1,345
  1,433
  1,526
  1,623
  1,724
  1,830
  1,941
  2,057
  2,179
  2,306
  2,440
  2,580
  2,726
  2,880
  3,041
  3,211
  3,388
  3,575
  3,771
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
Cash available for distribution, $m
  547
  605
  662
  721
  783
  847
  914
  984
  1,056
  1,132
  1,190
  1,272
  1,358
  1,447
  1,541
  1,639
  1,741
  1,848
  1,960
  2,077
  2,200
  2,328
  2,463
  2,604
  2,752
  2,908
  3,071
  3,242
  3,421
  3,609
Discount rate, %
  5.20
  5.46
  5.73
  6.02
  6.32
  6.64
  6.97
  7.32
  7.68
  8.07
  8.47
  8.89
  9.34
  9.81
  10.30
  10.81
  11.35
  11.92
  12.51
  13.14
  13.80
  14.49
  15.21
  15.97
  16.77
  17.61
  18.49
  19.41
  20.38
  21.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  520
  544
  560
  571
  576
  576
  571
  559
  543
  521
  487
  458
  425
  391
  354
  317
  280
  243
  209
  176
  146
  119
  95
  74
  57
  43
  31
  23
  16
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Mettler-Toledo International Inc. is a supplier of precision instruments and services. The Company operates through five segments: U.S. Operations, Swiss Operations, Western European Operations, Chinese Operations and Other. The Company manufactures weighing instruments for use in laboratory, industrial, packaging, logistics and food retailing applications. The Company is also a provider of analytical instruments for use in life science, reaction engineering and real-time analytic systems used in drug and chemical compound development, and process analytics instruments used for in-line measurement in production processes. In addition, the Company is also a supplier of end-of-line inspection systems used in production and packaging for food, pharmaceutical and other industries. The Company serves food and beverage producers; food retailers; chemical, specialty chemicals and cosmetics companies, and the transportation and logistics industry, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mettler-Toledo International (MTD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.1
Price to Sales 5.8
Price to Book 33.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 33
Price to Free Cash Flow 45.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 49.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 201.1%
Total Debt to Equity 205.5%
Interest Coverage 19
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 19.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Return On Total Capital 30.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.2%
Return On Equity 75.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.9%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.1%
EBITDA Margin 24%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.8%
Operating Margin 20.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Net Profit Margin 15.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Effective Tax Rate 23.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

MTD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MTD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2725 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mettler-Toledo International. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Mettler-Toledo International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MTD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.2%, whose default value for MTD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mettler-Toledo International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mettler-Toledo International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MTD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $339 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MTD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Mettler-Toledo International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mettler-Toledo International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MTD stock is equal to 0.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MTD are equal to 48.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mettler-Toledo International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MTD is equal to 3.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $547 million for Mettler-Toledo International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26 million for Mettler-Toledo International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mettler-Toledo International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $14.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Mettler-Toledo: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-26-18 04:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mettler-Toledo: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 04:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mettler-Toledo beats Street 4Q forecasts   [Feb-08-18 05:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mettler-Toledo tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-02-17 04:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mettler-Toledo beats Street 2Q forecasts   [12:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for July 24th   [Jul-24-17 10:18AM  Zacks]
▶ S&P Stealth Outperformers: Health Care   [12:00PM  Investopedia]
▶ Stocks With Rising Composite Ratings: Mettler Toledo   [May-09-17 10:46AM  Investor's Business Daily]
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