Intrinsic value of Mettler-Toledo International - MTD

Previous Close

$597.89

  Intrinsic Value

$437.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-27%

Previous close

$597.89

 
Intrinsic value

$437.29

 
Up/down potential

-27%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MTD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 15.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.50
  9.95
  9.45
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
Revenue, $m
  3,011
  3,311
  3,624
  3,950
  4,290
  4,644
  5,012
  5,395
  5,792
  6,205
  6,634
  7,081
  7,545
  8,027
  8,530
  9,053
  9,598
  10,166
  10,758
  11,376
  12,020
  12,694
  13,397
  14,132
  14,901
  15,705
  16,546
  17,426
  18,348
  19,313
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,964
  2,152
  2,348
  2,553
  2,766
  2,988
  3,219
  3,458
  3,708
  3,966
  4,159
  4,439
  4,730
  5,032
  5,347
  5,675
  6,017
  6,373
  6,744
  7,131
  7,535
  7,957
  8,398
  8,859
  9,341
  9,845
  10,372
  10,924
  11,502
  12,107
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  347
  355
  363
  371
  379
  387
  396
  405
  414
  423
  432
  441
  451
  461
  471
  482
  492
  503
  514
  525
  537
  549
  561
  573
  586
  599
  612
  625
  639
  653
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,311
  2,507
  2,711
  2,924
  3,145
  3,375
  3,615
  3,863
  4,122
  4,389
  4,591
  4,880
  5,181
  5,493
  5,818
  6,157
  6,509
  6,876
  7,258
  7,656
  8,072
  8,506
  8,959
  9,432
  9,927
  10,444
  10,984
  11,549
  12,141
  12,760
Operating income, $m
  699
  804
  913
  1,026
  1,145
  1,269
  1,398
  1,532
  1,671
  1,816
  2,044
  2,201
  2,364
  2,534
  2,711
  2,896
  3,089
  3,290
  3,500
  3,719
  3,948
  4,188
  4,438
  4,700
  4,974
  5,261
  5,562
  5,877
  6,207
  6,553
EBITDA, $m
  838
  948
  1,063
  1,184
  1,309
  1,440
  1,577
  1,718
  1,866
  2,019
  2,179
  2,345
  2,518
  2,698
  2,885
  3,081
  3,285
  3,497
  3,719
  3,951
  4,193
  4,447
  4,711
  4,988
  5,278
  5,582
  5,900
  6,232
  6,581
  6,947
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  53
  64
  76
  88
  101
  115
  129
  144
  159
  174
  191
  208
  226
  244
  263
  283
  304
  325
  348
  371
  396
  421
  448
  476
  505
  536
  568
  601
  636
  672
Earnings before tax, $m
  647
  739
  837
  938
  1,044
  1,154
  1,269
  1,388
  1,512
  1,642
  1,853
  1,993
  2,138
  2,290
  2,448
  2,613
  2,785
  2,965
  3,152
  3,348
  3,552
  3,766
  3,990
  4,224
  4,469
  4,726
  4,994
  5,276
  5,571
  5,881
Tax expense, $m
  175
  200
  226
  253
  282
  312
  343
  375
  408
  443
  500
  538
  577
  618
  661
  706
  752
  800
  851
  904
  959
  1,017
  1,077
  1,140
  1,207
  1,276
  1,348
  1,425
  1,504
  1,588
Net income, $m
  472
  540
  611
  685
  762
  842
  926
  1,013
  1,104
  1,198
  1,352
  1,455
  1,561
  1,672
  1,787
  1,908
  2,033
  2,164
  2,301
  2,444
  2,593
  2,749
  2,913
  3,084
  3,262
  3,450
  3,646
  3,852
  4,067
  4,293

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,817
  3,097
  3,390
  3,695
  4,013
  4,344
  4,689
  5,046
  5,418
  5,805
  6,206
  6,624
  7,058
  7,509
  7,979
  8,468
  8,978
  9,509
  10,063
  10,641
  11,245
  11,875
  12,533
  13,220
  13,939
  14,691
  15,478
  16,301
  17,163
  18,066
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,817
  3,097
  3,390
  3,695
  4,013
  4,344
  4,689
  5,046
  5,418
  5,805
  6,206
  6,624
  7,058
  7,509
  7,979
  8,468
  8,978
  9,509
  10,063
  10,641
  11,245
  11,875
  12,533
  13,220
  13,939
  14,691
  15,478
  16,301
  17,163
  18,066
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
Average production assets, $m
  1,069
  1,175
  1,286
  1,402
  1,523
  1,649
  1,779
  1,915
  2,056
  2,203
  2,355
  2,514
  2,678
  2,850
  3,028
  3,214
  3,407
  3,609
  3,819
  4,038
  4,267
  4,506
  4,756
  5,017
  5,290
  5,575
  5,874
  6,186
  6,513
  6,856
Working capital, $m
  208
  228
  250
  273
  296
  320
  346
  372
  400
  428
  458
  489
  521
  554
  589
  625
  662
  701
  742
  785
  829
  876
  924
  975
  1,028
  1,084
  1,142
  1,202
  1,266
  1,333
Total debt, $m
  1,189
  1,409
  1,638
  1,878
  2,128
  2,388
  2,658
  2,939
  3,231
  3,534
  3,849
  4,177
  4,518
  4,872
  5,241
  5,625
  6,025
  6,442
  6,877
  7,331
  7,804
  8,299
  8,815
  9,355
  9,920
  10,510
  11,128
  11,774
  12,451
  13,159
Total liabilities, $m
  2,211
  2,431
  2,661
  2,901
  3,151
  3,410
  3,681
  3,961
  4,253
  4,557
  4,872
  5,200
  5,540
  5,895
  6,264
  6,648
  7,048
  7,465
  7,900
  8,353
  8,827
  9,321
  9,838
  10,378
  10,942
  11,533
  12,150
  12,797
  13,473
  14,182
Total equity, $m
  606
  666
  729
  794
  863
  934
  1,008
  1,085
  1,165
  1,248
  1,334
  1,424
  1,517
  1,614
  1,716
  1,821
  1,930
  2,045
  2,164
  2,288
  2,418
  2,553
  2,695
  2,842
  2,997
  3,159
  3,328
  3,505
  3,690
  3,884
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,817
  3,097
  3,390
  3,695
  4,014
  4,344
  4,689
  5,046
  5,418
  5,805
  6,206
  6,624
  7,057
  7,509
  7,980
  8,469
  8,978
  9,510
  10,064
  10,641
  11,245
  11,874
  12,533
  13,220
  13,939
  14,692
  15,478
  16,302
  17,163
  18,066
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.960
  2.120
  2.250
  2.360
  2.470
  2.560
  2.640
  2.710
  2.770
  2.830
  2.880
  2.930
  2.980
  3.020
  3.060
  3.090
  3.120
  3.150
  3.180
  3.200
  3.230
  3.250
  3.270
  3.290
  3.310
  3.330
  3.340
  3.360
  3.370
  3.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  472
  540
  611
  685
  762
  842
  926
  1,013
  1,104
  1,198
  1,352
  1,455
  1,561
  1,672
  1,787
  1,908
  2,033
  2,164
  2,301
  2,444
  2,593
  2,749
  2,913
  3,084
  3,262
  3,450
  3,646
  3,852
  4,067
  4,293
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  138
  144
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  203
  135
  144
  154
  164
  174
  185
  196
  207
  219
  232
  245
  259
  273
  288
  304
  320
  338
  356
  374
  394
Funds from operations, $m
  610
  684
  761
  842
  926
  1,014
  1,105
  1,200
  1,299
  1,402
  1,488
  1,599
  1,715
  1,836
  1,961
  2,092
  2,229
  2,372
  2,521
  2,676
  2,838
  3,008
  3,186
  3,372
  3,566
  3,770
  3,984
  4,207
  4,441
  4,687
Change in working capital, $m
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
Cash from operations, $m
  590
  663
  740
  819
  903
  989
  1,080
  1,174
  1,271
  1,373
  1,458
  1,568
  1,683
  1,802
  1,927
  2,056
  2,191
  2,332
  2,480
  2,633
  2,794
  2,962
  3,137
  3,321
  3,513
  3,715
  3,925
  4,146
  4,378
  4,620
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -56
  -61
  -68
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -95
  -102
  -110
  -118
  -127
  -135
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -174
  -185
  -196
  -207
  -219
  -232
  -245
  -259
  -273
  -288
  -304
  -320
  -338
  -356
  -374
New CAPEX, $m
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -193
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -261
  -273
  -285
  -299
  -312
  -327
  -343
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -156
  -167
  -179
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -226
  -238
  -251
  -265
  -279
  -293
  -309
  -325
  -342
  -360
  -378
  -398
  -417
  -438
  -461
  -484
  -509
  -534
  -561
  -589
  -619
  -650
  -683
  -717
Free cash flow, $m
  434
  495
  561
  630
  701
  776
  854
  936
  1,020
  1,108
  1,179
  1,275
  1,374
  1,477
  1,585
  1,697
  1,813
  1,935
  2,062
  2,195
  2,333
  2,478
  2,629
  2,787
  2,952
  3,125
  3,306
  3,496
  3,695
  3,903
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  209
  220
  230
  240
  250
  260
  270
  281
  292
  303
  315
  328
  341
  354
  369
  384
  400
  417
  435
  454
  474
  494
  517
  540
  564
  590
  618
  646
  677
  709
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  209
  220
  230
  240
  250
  260
  270
  281
  292
  303
  315
  328
  341
  354
  369
  384
  400
  417
  435
  454
  474
  494
  517
  540
  564
  590
  618
  646
  677
  709
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  643
  716
  791
  869
  951
  1,036
  1,124
  1,216
  1,312
  1,412
  1,494
  1,602
  1,715
  1,831
  1,953
  2,081
  2,213
  2,352
  2,497
  2,648
  2,807
  2,972
  3,145
  3,327
  3,517
  3,716
  3,924
  4,143
  4,372
  4,612
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  585
  655
  728
  804
  883
  965
  1,050
  1,140
  1,232
  1,329
  1,408
  1,512
  1,621
  1,734
  1,852
  1,975
  2,104
  2,238
  2,378
  2,524
  2,677
  2,837
  3,004
  3,179
  3,362
  3,554
  3,755
  3,966
  4,186
  4,418
Discount rate, %
  5.20
  5.46
  5.73
  6.02
  6.32
  6.64
  6.97
  7.32
  7.68
  8.07
  8.47
  8.89
  9.34
  9.81
  10.30
  10.81
  11.35
  11.92
  12.51
  13.14
  13.80
  14.49
  15.21
  15.97
  16.77
  17.61
  18.49
  19.41
  20.38
  21.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  556
  589
  616
  636
  650
  656
  656
  648
  633
  612
  576
  544
  508
  468
  426
  382
  338
  295
  253
  214
  177
  145
  116
  91
  70
  52
  38
  28
  19
  13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Mettler-Toledo International Inc. is a supplier of precision instruments and services. The Company operates through five segments: U.S. Operations, Swiss Operations, Western European Operations, Chinese Operations and Other. The Company manufactures weighing instruments for use in laboratory, industrial, packaging, logistics and food retailing applications. The Company is also a provider of analytical instruments for use in life science, reaction engineering and real-time analytic systems used in drug and chemical compound development, and process analytics instruments used for in-line measurement in production processes. In addition, the Company is also a supplier of end-of-line inspection systems used in production and packaging for food, pharmaceutical and other industries. The Company serves food and beverage producers; food retailers; chemical, specialty chemicals and cosmetics companies, and the transportation and logistics industry, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mettler-Toledo International (MTD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 40.5
Price to Sales 6.2
Price to Book 35.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 35.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 48.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 49.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 201.1%
Total Debt to Equity 205.5%
Interest Coverage 19
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 19.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Return On Total Capital 30.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.2%
Return On Equity 75.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.9%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.1%
EBITDA Margin 24%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.8%
Operating Margin 20.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Net Profit Margin 15.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Effective Tax Rate 23.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

MTD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MTD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2725.053 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mettler-Toledo International. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Mettler-Toledo International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MTD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.2%, whose default value for MTD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mettler-Toledo International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mettler-Toledo International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MTD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $340 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MTD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Mettler-Toledo International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mettler-Toledo International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MTD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MTD are equal to 35.5%.

Life of production assets of 17.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mettler-Toledo International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MTD is equal to 6.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $547.28 million for Mettler-Toledo International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.214 million for Mettler-Toledo International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mettler-Toledo International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $15.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Should You Avoid Mettler-Toledo International Inc. (MTD)?   [Dec-09-18 11:42AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Mettler-Toledo: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ 4 Top Stocks to Buy for Superb Earnings Growth   [Oct-12-18 09:28AM  Zacks]
▶ Mettler-Toledo: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-26-18 04:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mettler-Toledo: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 04:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mettler-Toledo beats Street 4Q forecasts   [Feb-08-18 05:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mettler-Toledo tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-02-17 04:19PM  Associated Press]

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