Intrinsic value of MTS Systems - MTSC

Previous Close

$54.75

  Intrinsic Value

$37.42

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-32%

Previous close

$54.75

 
Intrinsic value

$37.42

 
Up/down potential

-32%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MTSC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  804
  822
  843
  867
  893
  922
  954
  988
  1,024
  1,064
  1,106
  1,150
  1,198
  1,249
  1,303
  1,360
  1,420
  1,484
  1,552
  1,623
  1,698
  1,778
  1,861
  1,949
  2,042
  2,140
  2,243
  2,351
  2,465
  2,585
Variable operating expenses, $m
  726
  741
  759
  778
  800
  824
  850
  878
  908
  941
  913
  950
  989
  1,031
  1,076
  1,123
  1,173
  1,226
  1,281
  1,340
  1,402
  1,468
  1,537
  1,610
  1,686
  1,767
  1,852
  1,941
  2,035
  2,134
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
Total operating expenses, $m
  746
  762
  780
  800
  822
  847
  873
  902
  932
  966
  938
  976
  1,016
  1,058
  1,104
  1,151
  1,202
  1,256
  1,311
  1,371
  1,434
  1,500
  1,570
  1,644
  1,720
  1,802
  1,888
  1,978
  2,073
  2,172
Operating income, $m
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  167
  175
  182
  191
  199
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
  264
  278
  291
  306
  322
  338
  355
  373
  392
  412
EBITDA, $m
  140
  143
  147
  152
  156
  162
  167
  174
  180
  188
  196
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  294
  308
  323
  339
  356
  374
  393
  412
  433
  455
  478
Interest expense (income), $m
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
Earnings before tax, $m
  27
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  52
  119
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  273
Tax expense, $m
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
Net income, $m
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  38
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,214
  1,242
  1,274
  1,310
  1,349
  1,393
  1,440
  1,492
  1,547
  1,607
  1,670
  1,738
  1,810
  1,887
  1,968
  2,054
  2,146
  2,242
  2,344
  2,452
  2,566
  2,685
  2,812
  2,945
  3,085
  3,233
  3,388
  3,551
  3,723
  3,904
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,214
  1,242
  1,274
  1,310
  1,349
  1,393
  1,440
  1,492
  1,547
  1,607
  1,670
  1,738
  1,810
  1,887
  1,968
  2,054
  2,146
  2,242
  2,344
  2,452
  2,566
  2,685
  2,812
  2,945
  3,085
  3,233
  3,388
  3,551
  3,723
  3,904
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.663
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
  0.662
Average production assets, $m
  424
  434
  445
  458
  472
  487
  503
  521
  541
  562
  584
  607
  633
  659
  688
  718
  750
  784
  819
  857
  897
  939
  983
  1,029
  1,078
  1,130
  1,184
  1,241
  1,301
  1,365
Working capital, $m
  143
  146
  150
  154
  159
  164
  170
  176
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  364
  381
  399
  418
  439
  460
Total debt, $m
  474
  492
  512
  535
  560
  588
  619
  651
  687
  725
  766
  809
  855
  904
  956
  1,011
  1,070
  1,132
  1,197
  1,266
  1,339
  1,415
  1,496
  1,581
  1,671
  1,766
  1,865
  1,970
  2,080
  2,196
Total liabilities, $m
  777
  795
  815
  838
  864
  892
  922
  955
  990
  1,028
  1,069
  1,112
  1,158
  1,207
  1,260
  1,315
  1,373
  1,435
  1,500
  1,569
  1,642
  1,719
  1,800
  1,885
  1,974
  2,069
  2,168
  2,273
  2,383
  2,499
Total equity, $m
  437
  447
  459
  472
  486
  501
  519
  537
  557
  578
  601
  626
  652
  679
  709
  740
  772
  807
  844
  883
  924
  967
  1,012
  1,060
  1,111
  1,164
  1,220
  1,279
  1,340
  1,406
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,214
  1,242
  1,274
  1,310
  1,350
  1,393
  1,441
  1,492
  1,547
  1,606
  1,670
  1,738
  1,810
  1,886
  1,969
  2,055
  2,145
  2,242
  2,344
  2,452
  2,566
  2,686
  2,812
  2,945
  3,085
  3,233
  3,388
  3,552
  3,723
  3,905
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.080
  1.100
  1.120
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.210
  1.230
  1.250
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.370
  1.390
  1.400
  1.420
  1.430
  1.450
  1.460
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.520
  1.530
  1.540
  1.550
  1.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  38
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  83
  84
  84
  85
  85
  86
  87
  88
  89
  90
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
Funds from operations, $m
  102
  104
  106
  108
  111
  114
  117
  120
  124
  128
  115
  119
  124
  129
  135
  140
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Cash from operations, $m
  100
  101
  102
  104
  106
  109
  111
  114
  117
  121
  108
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  169
  176
  185
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
Free cash flow, $m
  71
  70
  70
  70
  70
  71
  71
  72
  73
  74
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  87
  88
  91
  93
  96
  98
  101
  105
  108
  112
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  79
  78
  79
  80
  81
  83
  84
  86
  88
  90
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  168
Discount rate, %
  6.80
  7.14
  7.50
  7.87
  8.27
  8.68
  9.11
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.14
  14.84
  15.59
  16.37
  17.18
  18.04
  18.94
  19.89
  20.89
  21.93
  23.03
  24.18
  25.39
  26.66
  27.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  74
  68
  64
  59
  55
  50
  46
  41
  37
  33
  24
  21
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
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MTS Systems Corporation is a supplier of test systems and position sensors. The Company operates through two segments: Test and Sensors. The Test segment provides testing solutions, including hardware, software and services to ground vehicles, materials and structures markets. The Sensors segment provides position sensors for a range of industrial and mobile hydraulic applications. The Sensors segment products are used by industrial machinery and mobile equipment manufacturers to automate the operation of their products for safety and end-user productivity. The Sensors segment manufactures products utilizing magnetostriction technology. Its technology, Temposonics, offers non-contact position sensing. Its Temposonics sensors provide position feedback for motion control systems. It also provides various service offerings, including calibration, maintenance, training and consulting. The Company has its manufacturing facilities in North America, Europe and Asia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MTS Systems (MTSC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.9
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 18
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -14.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 97.7%
Total Debt to Equity 106.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Return On Equity 6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.6%
EBITDA Margin 11.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Operating Margin 7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Effective Tax Rate -8.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Payout Ratio 80%

MTSC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MTSC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $787.955 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MTS Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of MTS Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MTSC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.8%, whose default value for MTSC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MTS Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MTS Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MTSC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $20 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MTSC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.7% for MTS Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MTS Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MTSC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MTSC are equal to 52.8%.

Life of production assets of 20.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MTS Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MTSC is equal to 17.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $428.777 million for MTS Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.86 million for MTS Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MTS Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ MTS Systems Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-07-18 08:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ MTS: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ MTS Announces Declaration of Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Aug-03-18 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ MTS Systems to Present at Intellisight 2018 Conference   [Aug-01-18 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Best Rated NasdaqGM Tech Dividend Stocks   [Jun-06-18 05:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ MTS Receives Energy Efficiency Award From Xcel Energy   [May-21-18 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ MTS: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-07-18 04:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ Earnings Preview For MTS Systems   [07:47AM  Benzinga]
▶ MTS Accelerates Growth With New Actuator Technologies   [Apr-27-18 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ MTS Announces Declaration of Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Feb-12-18 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Top Tech Dividend Yielding Stocks To Profit From   [Feb-08-18 04:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ MTS tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Feb-05-18 05:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Rated NasdaqGS Tech Dividend Stocks   [Jan-06-18 04:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ MTS Systems Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-28-17 08:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ MTS beats Street 4Q forecasts   [Nov-27-17 04:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ When Should You Buy MTS Systems Corporation (MTSC)?   [Nov-26-17 08:01PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ MTS Announces Declaration of Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Nov-14-17 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ MTS Systems to Present at Intellisight 2017 Conference   [Aug-09-17 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ MTS beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Aug-07-17 11:59PM  Associated Press]

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