Intrinsic value of MasTec, Inc. - MTZ

Previous Close

$61.28

  Intrinsic Value

$103.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+69%

Previous close

$61.28

 
Intrinsic value

$103.64

 
Up/down potential

+69%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of MTZ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  19.60
  18.14
  16.83
  15.64
  14.58
  13.62
  12.76
  11.98
  11.28
  10.66
  10.09
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.01
  7.71
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
Revenue, $m
  8,263
  9,762
  11,405
  13,189
  15,112
  17,170
  19,361
  21,681
  24,127
  26,698
  29,392
  32,209
  35,147
  38,209
  41,396
  44,710
  48,155
  51,735
  55,455
  59,322
  63,341
  67,520
  71,867
  76,390
  81,099
  86,004
  91,116
  96,445
  102,004
  107,806
Variable operating expenses, $m
  7,602
  8,958
  10,444
  12,058
  13,797
  15,659
  17,641
  19,740
  21,953
  24,279
  26,589
  29,137
  31,795
  34,564
  37,447
  40,445
  43,562
  46,800
  50,166
  53,664
  57,299
  61,080
  65,012
  69,104
  73,364
  77,801
  82,425
  87,246
  92,275
  97,523
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  115
  118
  121
  123
  126
  129
  132
  134
  137
  140
  144
  147
  150
  153
  157
  160
  164
  167
  171
  175
  178
  182
  186
  191
  195
  199
  203
  208
  212
  217
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,717
  9,076
  10,565
  12,181
  13,923
  15,788
  17,773
  19,874
  22,090
  24,419
  26,733
  29,284
  31,945
  34,717
  37,604
  40,605
  43,726
  46,967
  50,337
  53,839
  57,477
  61,262
  65,198
  69,295
  73,559
  78,000
  82,628
  87,454
  92,487
  97,740
Operating income, $m
  546
  686
  840
  1,008
  1,188
  1,382
  1,588
  1,806
  2,037
  2,279
  2,660
  2,925
  3,202
  3,491
  3,792
  4,104
  4,430
  4,767
  5,119
  5,484
  5,863
  6,258
  6,668
  7,096
  7,541
  8,004
  8,487
  8,991
  9,517
  10,066
EBITDA, $m
  846
  1,018
  1,206
  1,411
  1,632
  1,869
  2,121
  2,388
  2,669
  2,965
  3,276
  3,600
  3,939
  4,292
  4,659
  5,041
  5,438
  5,851
  6,280
  6,726
  7,190
  7,672
  8,174
  8,696
  9,240
  9,806
  10,396
  11,012
  11,654
  12,324
Interest expense (income), $m
  48
  84
  120
  160
  204
  251
  302
  356
  414
  476
  541
  609
  680
  755
  832
  914
  998
  1,086
  1,177
  1,272
  1,370
  1,473
  1,579
  1,690
  1,805
  1,925
  2,050
  2,180
  2,315
  2,456
  2,604
Earnings before tax, $m
  461
  566
  680
  804
  938
  1,080
  1,232
  1,392
  1,561
  1,739
  2,051
  2,245
  2,448
  2,659
  2,878
  3,106
  3,344
  3,590
  3,847
  4,113
  4,390
  4,678
  4,978
  5,290
  5,616
  5,954
  6,308
  6,676
  7,061
  7,462
Tax expense, $m
  125
  153
  184
  217
  253
  292
  333
  376
  421
  469
  554
  606
  661
  718
  777
  839
  903
  969
  1,039
  1,111
  1,185
  1,263
  1,344
  1,428
  1,516
  1,608
  1,703
  1,803
  1,906
  2,015
Net income, $m
  337
  413
  497
  587
  684
  789
  899
  1,016
  1,140
  1,269
  1,497
  1,639
  1,787
  1,941
  2,101
  2,268
  2,441
  2,621
  2,808
  3,003
  3,205
  3,415
  3,634
  3,862
  4,099
  4,347
  4,605
  4,874
  5,154
  5,447

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,311
  6,274
  7,329
  8,476
  9,712
  11,035
  12,443
  13,934
  15,506
  17,158
  18,890
  20,700
  22,588
  24,556
  26,604
  28,734
  30,948
  33,249
  35,640
  38,125
  40,708
  43,393
  46,187
  49,094
  52,120
  55,273
  58,558
  61,983
  65,555
  69,284
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,311
  6,274
  7,329
  8,476
  9,712
  11,035
  12,443
  13,934
  15,506
  17,158
  18,890
  20,700
  22,588
  24,556
  26,604
  28,734
  30,948
  33,249
  35,640
  38,125
  40,708
  43,393
  46,187
  49,094
  52,120
  55,273
  58,558
  61,983
  65,555
  69,284
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
  1.556
Average production assets, $m
  1,644
  1,943
  2,270
  2,625
  3,007
  3,417
  3,853
  4,314
  4,801
  5,313
  5,849
  6,410
  6,994
  7,604
  8,238
  8,897
  9,583
  10,295
  11,036
  11,805
  12,605
  13,436
  14,301
  15,202
  16,139
  17,115
  18,132
  19,193
  20,299
  21,453
Working capital, $m
  1,124
  1,328
  1,551
  1,794
  2,055
  2,335
  2,633
  2,949
  3,281
  3,631
  3,997
  4,380
  4,780
  5,196
  5,630
  6,081
  6,549
  7,036
  7,542
  8,068
  8,614
  9,183
  9,774
  10,389
  11,029
  11,697
  12,392
  13,117
  13,873
  14,662
Total debt, $m
  2,005
  2,667
  3,392
  4,180
  5,029
  5,938
  6,905
  7,929
  9,009
  10,145
  11,334
  12,577
  13,875
  15,227
  16,634
  18,097
  19,618
  21,199
  22,841
  24,548
  26,323
  28,168
  30,087
  32,084
  34,163
  36,329
  38,586
  40,939
  43,393
  45,955
Total liabilities, $m
  3,648
  4,310
  5,035
  5,823
  6,672
  7,581
  8,548
  9,572
  10,653
  11,788
  12,977
  14,221
  15,518
  16,870
  18,277
  19,740
  21,261
  22,842
  24,485
  26,192
  27,966
  29,811
  31,730
  33,727
  35,807
  37,972
  40,229
  42,582
  45,037
  47,598
Total equity, $m
  1,662
  1,964
  2,294
  2,653
  3,040
  3,454
  3,895
  4,361
  4,853
  5,371
  5,912
  6,479
  7,070
  7,686
  8,327
  8,994
  9,687
  10,407
  11,155
  11,933
  12,741
  13,582
  14,456
  15,366
  16,314
  17,300
  18,329
  19,401
  20,519
  21,686
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,310
  6,274
  7,329
  8,476
  9,712
  11,035
  12,443
  13,933
  15,506
  17,159
  18,889
  20,700
  22,588
  24,556
  26,604
  28,734
  30,948
  33,249
  35,640
  38,125
  40,707
  43,393
  46,186
  49,093
  52,121
  55,272
  58,558
  61,983
  65,556
  69,284
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.210
  1.360
  1.480
  1.580
  1.650
  1.720
  1.770
  1.820
  1.860
  1.890
  1.920
  1.940
  1.960
  1.980
  2.000
  2.010
  2.030
  2.040
  2.050
  2.060
  2.070
  2.070
  2.080
  2.090
  2.090
  2.100
  2.110
  2.110
  2.110
  2.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313
  0.313

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  337
  413
  497
  587
  684
  789
  899
  1,016
  1,140
  1,269
  1,497
  1,639
  1,787
  1,941
  2,101
  2,268
  2,441
  2,621
  2,808
  3,003
  3,205
  3,415
  3,634
  3,862
  4,099
  4,347
  4,605
  4,874
  5,154
  5,447
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  300
  331
  366
  403
  444
  487
  533
  581
  632
  686
  616
  675
  736
  800
  867
  937
  1,009
  1,084
  1,162
  1,243
  1,327
  1,414
  1,505
  1,600
  1,699
  1,802
  1,909
  2,020
  2,137
  2,258
Funds from operations, $m
  637
  745
  862
  990
  1,128
  1,275
  1,432
  1,597
  1,772
  1,955
  2,113
  2,314
  2,523
  2,741
  2,968
  3,204
  3,450
  3,705
  3,970
  4,245
  4,532
  4,830
  5,140
  5,462
  5,798
  6,148
  6,513
  6,894
  7,291
  7,706
Change in working capital, $m
  184
  204
  223
  243
  262
  280
  298
  316
  333
  350
  366
  383
  400
  416
  433
  451
  469
  487
  506
  526
  547
  568
  591
  615
  640
  667
  695
  725
  756
  789
Cash from operations, $m
  453
  541
  639
  748
  866
  995
  1,134
  1,282
  1,439
  1,606
  1,747
  1,931
  2,123
  2,325
  2,535
  2,754
  2,981
  3,218
  3,464
  3,719
  3,985
  4,261
  4,548
  4,847
  5,158
  5,481
  5,818
  6,169
  6,535
  6,917
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -145
  -173
  -204
  -239
  -276
  -317
  -360
  -406
  -454
  -505
  -559
  -616
  -675
  -736
  -800
  -867
  -937
  -1,009
  -1,084
  -1,162
  -1,243
  -1,327
  -1,414
  -1,505
  -1,600
  -1,699
  -1,802
  -1,909
  -2,020
  -2,137
New CAPEX, $m
  -268
  -298
  -327
  -355
  -383
  -410
  -436
  -462
  -487
  -512
  -536
  -560
  -585
  -609
  -634
  -660
  -686
  -712
  -740
  -769
  -800
  -832
  -865
  -900
  -937
  -976
  -1,017
  -1,061
  -1,106
  -1,155
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -413
  -471
  -531
  -594
  -659
  -727
  -796
  -868
  -941
  -1,017
  -1,095
  -1,176
  -1,260
  -1,345
  -1,434
  -1,527
  -1,623
  -1,721
  -1,824
  -1,931
  -2,043
  -2,159
  -2,279
  -2,405
  -2,537
  -2,675
  -2,819
  -2,970
  -3,126
  -3,292
Free cash flow, $m
  40
  69
  108
  154
  208
  269
  338
  415
  498
  589
  651
  755
  864
  979
  1,100
  1,227
  1,359
  1,497
  1,640
  1,788
  1,943
  2,103
  2,269
  2,442
  2,620
  2,806
  2,999
  3,200
  3,408
  3,625
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  598
  662
  725
  788
  849
  909
  967
  1,024
  1,080
  1,135
  1,189
  1,243
  1,297
  1,352
  1,407
  1,463
  1,521
  1,581
  1,643
  1,707
  1,774
  1,845
  1,919
  1,997
  2,079
  2,166
  2,257
  2,353
  2,454
  2,562
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  598
  662
  725
  788
  849
  909
  967
  1,024
  1,080
  1,135
  1,189
  1,243
  1,297
  1,352
  1,407
  1,463
  1,521
  1,581
  1,643
  1,707
  1,774
  1,845
  1,919
  1,997
  2,079
  2,166
  2,257
  2,353
  2,454
  2,562
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  638
  731
  833
  941
  1,057
  1,178
  1,305
  1,439
  1,578
  1,724
  1,841
  1,998
  2,161
  2,331
  2,507
  2,690
  2,880
  3,077
  3,282
  3,495
  3,717
  3,948
  4,188
  4,439
  4,700
  4,972
  5,256
  5,553
  5,863
  6,187
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -272
  -302
  -330
  -359
  -387
  -414
  -441
  -467
  -492
  -517
  -542
  -567
  -591
  -616
  -641
  -667
  -693
  -720
  -748
  -778
  -808
  -841
  -874
  -910
  -947
  -987
  -1,028
  -1,072
  -1,118
  -1,167
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  366
  430
  502
  583
  670
  764
  865
  972
  1,086
  1,207
  1,299
  1,432
  1,570
  1,715
  1,866
  2,023
  2,187
  2,357
  2,534
  2,718
  2,909
  3,107
  3,314
  3,529
  3,752
  3,985
  4,228
  4,481
  4,745
  5,020
Discount rate, %
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
  25.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  344
  378
  411
  440
  463
  480
  490
  493
  488
  475
  443
  419
  390
  356
  320
  282
  245
  208
  173
  142
  113
  89
  68
  51
  37
  26
  18
  12
  8
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

MasTec, Inc. is an infrastructure construction company. The Company operates primarily across North America through a range of industries. The Company operates through five segments: Communications, Oil and Gas, Electrical Transmission, Power Generation and Industrial, and Other. Its primary activities include the engineering, building, installation, maintenance and upgrade of communications, energy and utility infrastructure, such as wireless, wireline/fiber, satellite communications and customer fulfillment activities; petroleum and natural gas pipeline infrastructure; electrical utility transmission and distribution; conventional and renewable power generation, and industrial infrastructure. The Company offered its services primarily under the MasTec service mark and had operations across 510 locations as of December 31, 2016. It provides services under master service and other service agreements, which are generally multi-year agreements.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MasTec, Inc. (MTZ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.6
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 4.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 56.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 39.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 87.6%
Total Debt to Equity 93.5%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 6.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Equity 12.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 13.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
EBITDA Margin 8.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Operating Margin 5.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Net Profit Margin 2.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Effective Tax Rate 40.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

MTZ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MTZ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6909 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MasTec, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of MasTec, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MTZ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.3%, whose default value for MTZ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MasTec, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MasTec, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MTZ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $113 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MTZ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6% for MasTec, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MasTec, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MTZ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MTZ are equal to 19.9%.

Life of production assets of 9.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MasTec, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MTZ is equal to 13.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1389.898 million for MasTec, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 75.971 million for MasTec, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MasTec, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.7 billion.

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