Intrinsic value of Maxim Integrated Products - MXIM

Previous Close

$59.58

  Intrinsic Value

$14.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-75%

Previous close

$59.58

 
Intrinsic value

$14.96

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MXIM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 16.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
Revenue, $m
  2,562
  2,842
  3,136
  3,444
  3,765
  4,100
  4,449
  4,812
  5,189
  5,581
  5,989
  6,412
  6,853
  7,310
  7,786
  8,281
  8,797
  9,333
  9,892
  10,475
  11,083
  11,717
  12,379
  13,071
  13,793
  14,548
  15,337
  16,163
  17,027
  17,931
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,189
  2,422
  2,666
  2,922
  3,190
  3,468
  3,758
  4,060
  4,374
  4,700
  4,981
  5,333
  5,699
  6,080
  6,475
  6,887
  7,316
  7,762
  8,227
  8,712
  9,217
  9,745
  10,295
  10,870
  11,471
  12,099
  12,755
  13,442
  14,161
  14,913
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,189
  2,422
  2,666
  2,922
  3,190
  3,468
  3,758
  4,060
  4,374
  4,700
  4,981
  5,333
  5,699
  6,080
  6,475
  6,887
  7,316
  7,762
  8,227
  8,712
  9,217
  9,745
  10,295
  10,870
  11,471
  12,099
  12,755
  13,442
  14,161
  14,913
Operating income, $m
  373
  420
  470
  522
  576
  632
  691
  752
  815
  881
  1,008
  1,080
  1,154
  1,231
  1,311
  1,394
  1,481
  1,571
  1,665
  1,763
  1,866
  1,973
  2,084
  2,200
  2,322
  2,449
  2,582
  2,721
  2,866
  3,019
EBITDA, $m
  570
  632
  697
  766
  837
  912
  989
  1,070
  1,154
  1,241
  1,332
  1,426
  1,524
  1,626
  1,731
  1,842
  1,956
  2,075
  2,200
  2,329
  2,465
  2,606
  2,753
  2,907
  3,067
  3,235
  3,411
  3,594
  3,786
  3,987
Interest expense (income), $m
  29
  80
  67
  79
  92
  106
  120
  135
  151
  167
  184
  201
  219
  238
  258
  278
  299
  321
  344
  368
  393
  419
  446
  474
  504
  535
  567
  601
  636
  672
  711
Earnings before tax, $m
  293
  354
  391
  429
  470
  512
  556
  601
  649
  698
  807
  860
  915
  973
  1,033
  1,095
  1,159
  1,227
  1,297
  1,370
  1,447
  1,526
  1,610
  1,696
  1,787
  1,882
  1,981
  2,085
  2,194
  2,308
Tax expense, $m
  79
  95
  105
  116
  127
  138
  150
  162
  175
  188
  218
  232
  247
  263
  279
  296
  313
  331
  350
  370
  391
  412
  435
  458
  483
  508
  535
  563
  592
  623
Net income, $m
  214
  258
  285
  313
  343
  374
  406
  439
  473
  509
  589
  628
  668
  710
  754
  799
  846
  896
  947
  1,000
  1,056
  1,114
  1,175
  1,238
  1,305
  1,374
  1,446
  1,522
  1,602
  1,685

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,348
  2,605
  2,875
  3,157
  3,451
  3,758
  4,078
  4,411
  4,756
  5,116
  5,489
  5,878
  6,281
  6,700
  7,137
  7,590
  8,063
  8,555
  9,067
  9,601
  10,159
  10,740
  11,347
  11,980
  12,642
  13,334
  14,058
  14,815
  15,607
  16,436
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,348
  2,605
  2,875
  3,157
  3,451
  3,758
  4,078
  4,411
  4,756
  5,116
  5,489
  5,878
  6,281
  6,700
  7,137
  7,590
  8,063
  8,555
  9,067
  9,601
  10,159
  10,740
  11,347
  11,980
  12,642
  13,334
  14,058
  14,815
  15,607
  16,436
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
  1.091
Average production assets, $m
  1,066
  1,182
  1,305
  1,433
  1,566
  1,706
  1,851
  2,002
  2,159
  2,322
  2,491
  2,668
  2,851
  3,041
  3,239
  3,445
  3,659
  3,883
  4,115
  4,358
  4,611
  4,874
  5,150
  5,437
  5,738
  6,052
  6,380
  6,724
  7,083
  7,459
Working capital, $m
  315
  350
  386
  424
  463
  504
  547
  592
  638
  687
  737
  789
  843
  899
  958
  1,019
  1,082
  1,148
  1,217
  1,288
  1,363
  1,441
  1,523
  1,608
  1,697
  1,789
  1,886
  1,988
  2,094
  2,206
Total debt, $m
  1,234
  1,465
  1,707
  1,961
  2,226
  2,503
  2,790
  3,090
  3,401
  3,724
  4,061
  4,410
  4,773
  5,151
  5,543
  5,952
  6,377
  6,819
  7,281
  7,761
  8,263
  8,786
  9,332
  9,902
  10,498
  11,121
  11,772
  12,454
  13,166
  13,912
Total liabilities, $m
  2,113
  2,345
  2,587
  2,841
  3,106
  3,382
  3,670
  3,970
  4,281
  4,604
  4,941
  5,290
  5,653
  6,030
  6,423
  6,831
  7,257
  7,699
  8,161
  8,641
  9,143
  9,666
  10,212
  10,782
  11,378
  12,001
  12,652
  13,333
  14,046
  14,792
Total equity, $m
  235
  261
  287
  316
  345
  376
  408
  441
  476
  512
  549
  588
  628
  670
  714
  759
  806
  855
  907
  960
  1,016
  1,074
  1,135
  1,198
  1,264
  1,333
  1,406
  1,481
  1,561
  1,644
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,348
  2,606
  2,874
  3,157
  3,451
  3,758
  4,078
  4,411
  4,757
  5,116
  5,490
  5,878
  6,281
  6,700
  7,137
  7,590
  8,063
  8,554
  9,068
  9,601
  10,159
  10,740
  11,347
  11,980
  12,642
  13,334
  14,058
  14,814
  15,607
  16,436
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.250
  5.620
  5.940
  6.210
  6.450
  6.660
  6.840
  7.010
  7.150
  7.280
  7.400
  7.500
  7.600
  7.690
  7.770
  7.840
  7.910
  7.970
  8.030
  8.080
  8.130
  8.180
  8.220
  8.270
  8.300
  8.340
  8.370
  8.410
  8.440
  8.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  214
  258
  285
  313
  343
  374
  406
  439
  473
  509
  589
  628
  668
  710
  754
  799
  846
  896
  947
  1,000
  1,056
  1,114
  1,175
  1,238
  1,305
  1,374
  1,446
  1,522
  1,602
  1,685
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  197
  212
  228
  244
  262
  280
  299
  318
  339
  360
  324
  346
  370
  395
  421
  447
  475
  504
  534
  566
  599
  633
  669
  706
  745
  786
  829
  873
  920
  969
Funds from operations, $m
  410
  470
  513
  558
  605
  653
  704
  757
  812
  869
  913
  974
  1,039
  1,105
  1,174
  1,247
  1,322
  1,400
  1,481
  1,566
  1,655
  1,747
  1,844
  1,945
  2,050
  2,160
  2,275
  2,395
  2,521
  2,653
Change in working capital, $m
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
Cash from operations, $m
  378
  435
  477
  520
  565
  612
  661
  712
  766
  821
  863
  922
  984
  1,049
  1,116
  1,186
  1,258
  1,334
  1,413
  1,495
  1,580
  1,669
  1,762
  1,860
  1,961
  2,067
  2,178
  2,294
  2,415
  2,542
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -124
  -138
  -154
  -169
  -186
  -203
  -222
  -240
  -260
  -280
  -302
  -324
  -346
  -370
  -395
  -421
  -447
  -475
  -504
  -534
  -566
  -599
  -633
  -669
  -706
  -745
  -786
  -829
  -873
  -920
New CAPEX, $m
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -233
  -242
  -253
  -264
  -275
  -288
  -300
  -314
  -328
  -344
  -359
  -376
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -235
  -255
  -276
  -297
  -320
  -342
  -367
  -391
  -417
  -443
  -472
  -500
  -529
  -560
  -593
  -627
  -661
  -698
  -737
  -776
  -819
  -863
  -908
  -957
  -1,006
  -1,059
  -1,114
  -1,173
  -1,232
  -1,296
Free cash flow, $m
  142
  180
  201
  222
  245
  269
  295
  321
  349
  377
  392
  423
  455
  488
  523
  559
  597
  635
  676
  718
  761
  807
  854
  903
  954
  1,008
  1,064
  1,122
  1,183
  1,246
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -254
  231
  243
  254
  265
  276
  288
  299
  311
  324
  336
  349
  363
  377
  393
  408
  425
  443
  461
  481
  501
  523
  546
  570
  596
  623
  651
  681
  713
  746
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  284
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  30
  231
  243
  254
  265
  276
  288
  299
  311
  324
  336
  349
  363
  377
  393
  408
  425
  443
  461
  481
  501
  523
  546
  570
  596
  623
  651
  681
  713
  746
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  172
  412
  443
  476
  510
  546
  582
  620
  660
  701
  728
  772
  818
  866
  916
  968
  1,022
  1,078
  1,137
  1,198
  1,263
  1,330
  1,400
  1,473
  1,550
  1,631
  1,715
  1,803
  1,895
  1,992
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -498
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  2,466
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  2,140
  386
  416
  448
  481
  515
  550
  587
  625
  665
  690
  733
  778
  824
  872
  922
  974
  1,029
  1,086
  1,145
  1,207
  1,272
  1,339
  1,410
  1,484
  1,561
  1,642
  1,727
  1,816
  1,909
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  2,052
  353
  362
  369
  373
  374
  372
  367
  359
  349
  328
  313
  296
  277
  256
  234
  212
  189
  167
  145
  125
  106
  88
  72
  58
  46
  35
  27
  20
  14
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Maxim Integrated Products, Inc. is engaged in designing, developing, manufacturing and marketing a range of linear and mixed-signal integrated circuits, referred to as analog circuits. The Company also provides a range of high-frequency process technologies and capabilities for use in custom designs. The Company caters to automotive, communications and data center, computing, consumer and industrial markets. It offers a range of products, such as switching regulators, battery management, isolated power, charge pumps, linear regulators, light emitting diode (LED) drivers, motor driver integrated circuits (ICs), monitors and sequencers, transceivers, controllers and expanders, level translators, signal line protection ICs, broadband switches, powerline communications, real-time clocks, embedded security, microcontrollers, 1-Wire, iButton, data loggers, clock generation and distribution, memory products, optical, signal integrity, high-speed signaling, and display power and control.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.5
Price to Sales 7.3
Price to Book 7.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -26.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -17.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 67.5%
Total Debt to Equity 67.5%
Interest Coverage 24
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Return On Total Capital 16.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Return On Equity 26.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 63%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.3%
EBITDA Margin 38%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.5%
Operating Margin 30.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 29.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Net Profit Margin 24.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Effective Tax Rate 15.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Payout Ratio 65.4%

MXIM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MXIM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2295.615 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Maxim Integrated Products. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Maxim Integrated Products. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MXIM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MXIM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Maxim Integrated Products, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Maxim Integrated Products.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MXIM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MXIM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Maxim Integrated Products.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Maxim Integrated Products. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MXIM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MXIM are equal to 41.6%.

Life of production assets of 7.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Maxim Integrated Products operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MXIM is equal to 12.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2202.694 million for Maxim Integrated Products - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 279.678 million for Maxim Integrated Products is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Maxim Integrated Products at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $16.7 billion.

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