Intrinsic value of Maxwell Technologies - MXWL

Previous Close

$2.46

  Intrinsic Value

$0.32

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

Previous close

$2.46

 
Intrinsic value

$0.32

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MXWL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  133
  136
  140
  143
  148
  153
  158
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  207
  216
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  281
  294
  308
  323
  338
  354
  371
  389
  408
  428
Variable operating expenses, $m
  161
  165
  169
  174
  179
  185
  191
  197
  204
  212
  216
  224
  234
  244
  254
  265
  277
  289
  303
  316
  331
  347
  363
  380
  398
  417
  437
  458
  481
  504
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  161
  165
  169
  174
  179
  185
  191
  197
  204
  212
  216
  224
  234
  244
  254
  265
  277
  289
  303
  316
  331
  347
  363
  380
  398
  417
  437
  458
  481
  504
Operating income, $m
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
EBITDA, $m
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Earnings before tax, $m
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  208
  213
  219
  225
  232
  239
  247
  256
  266
  276
  287
  298
  311
  324
  338
  353
  368
  385
  402
  421
  440
  461
  483
  506
  530
  555
  582
  610
  639
  670
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  208
  213
  219
  225
  232
  239
  247
  256
  266
  276
  287
  298
  311
  324
  338
  353
  368
  385
  402
  421
  440
  461
  483
  506
  530
  555
  582
  610
  639
  670
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.639
  0.638
  0.639
  0.636
  0.638
  0.640
  0.640
  0.637
  0.635
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.637
  0.639
  0.639
  0.637
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.638
  0.637
  0.638
  0.638
  0.639
Average production assets, $m
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
Working capital, $m
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
Total debt, $m
  37
  40
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  76
  81
  87
  94
  100
  108
  115
  123
  132
  141
  150
  160
  171
  182
  194
  206
  219
  233
  247
  262
Total liabilities, $m
  102
  104
  107
  110
  113
  116
  120
  125
  129
  134
  140
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  196
  205
  214
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
  311
  326
Total equity, $m
  107
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  127
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  216
  226
  236
  248
  259
  272
  285
  298
  313
  328
  344
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  209
  213
  219
  225
  232
  239
  247
  256
  265
  275
  287
  298
  310
  324
  338
  353
  368
  384
  402
  421
  440
  461
  483
  505
  530
  555
  581
  610
  639
  670
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.350
  0.360
  0.380
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.640
  0.650
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Funds from operations, $m
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
Free cash flow, $m
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  34
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  36
  36
  39
  40
  41
  44
  45
  47
  50
  51
  49
  52
  54
  56
  60
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  99
  103
  109
  115
  120
  126
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -34
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -23
  -24
  -23
  -23
  -22
  -21
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  76.7
  58.9
  45.1
  34.4
  26.2
  20.0
  15.2
  11.5
  8.7
  6.6
  5.1
  4.0
  3.1
  2.4
  1.8
  1.4
  1.1
  0.8
  0.6
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Maxwell Technologies, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets energy storage and power delivery products for transportation, industrial, information technology and other applications and microelectronic products for space and satellite applications. The Company offers three product lines: Ultracapacitors, High-Voltage Capacitors and Radiation-Hardened Microelectronic Products. The Company's ultracapacitor cells and multi-cell packs, and modules provide energy storage and power delivery solutions for applications in multiple industries. The Company offers ultracapacitor cells with capacitances ranging from 1 to 3,400 farads. It designs and manufactures CONDIS high-voltage capacitors. These products include grading and coupling capacitors and electric voltage transformers. The Company's radiation-hardened microelectronic products for satellites and spacecraft include single board computers and components, such as high-density memory and data conversion modules.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Maxwell Technologies (MXWL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.3
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -27.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -18.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -15.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.3%
Return On Total Capital -21.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.2%
Return On Equity -21.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.7%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
EBITDA Margin -8.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Operating Margin -21.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -16.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.5%
Net Profit Margin -19.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.1%
Effective Tax Rate -20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -80.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

MXWL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MXWL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $130.368 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Maxwell Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Maxwell Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MXWL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MXWL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Maxwell Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Maxwell Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MXWL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 121.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MXWL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.7% for Maxwell Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Maxwell Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MXWL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MXWL are equal to 34.4%.

Life of production assets of 6.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Maxwell Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MXWL is equal to 14.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $106.101 million for Maxwell Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45.745 million for Maxwell Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Maxwell Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Maxwell: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Maxwell Commences Public Offering of Common Stock   [Aug-07-18 04:45PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Maxwell: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Maxwell: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Maxwell reports 3Q loss   [Nov-08-17 05:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Maxwell reports 2Q loss   [Aug-07-17 07:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Maxwell Chairman of the Board Transition   [08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Maxwell reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 06:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Maxwell Completes Acquisition of Nesscap Energy Business   [Apr-28-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]

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