Intrinsic value of Maxwell Technologies, Inc. - MXWL

Previous Close

$4.54

  Intrinsic Value

$0.36

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

Previous close

$4.54

 
Intrinsic value

$0.36

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MXWL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  92
  94
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  295
Variable operating expenses, $m
  146
  149
  153
  157
  162
  167
  173
  179
  185
  192
  197
  205
  214
  223
  232
  243
  253
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
  364
  382
  400
  420
  440
  461
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  146
  149
  153
  157
  162
  167
  173
  179
  185
  192
  197
  205
  214
  223
  232
  243
  253
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
  364
  382
  400
  420
  440
  461
Operating income, $m
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
EBITDA, $m
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Earnings before tax, $m
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  136
  140
  143
  147
  152
  157
  162
  168
  174
  180
  188
  195
  203
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  288
  302
  316
  331
  347
  363
  381
  399
  418
  439
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  136
  140
  143
  147
  152
  157
  162
  168
  174
  180
  188
  195
  203
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  288
  302
  316
  331
  347
  363
  381
  399
  418
  439
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.676
  0.671
  0.671
  0.673
  0.671
  0.669
  0.673
  0.673
  0.672
  0.672
  0.670
  0.672
  0.675
  0.675
  0.674
  0.671
  0.672
  0.675
  0.673
  0.673
  0.674
  0.672
  0.674
  0.674
  0.671
  0.672
  0.672
  0.674
  0.675
  0.672
Average production assets, $m
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
Working capital, $m
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
Total debt, $m
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  154
  163
  173
  183
  193
  204
Total liabilities, $m
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
Total equity, $m
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  136
  140
  143
  147
  151
  156
  162
  167
  174
  180
  188
  195
  204
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  263
  276
  288
  302
  316
  331
  347
  364
  381
  399
  419
  439
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.640
  0.650
  0.670
  0.680
  0.700
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456
  0.456

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
Funds from operations, $m
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
Free cash flow, $m
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  82
  86
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  199
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  62
  63
  65
  67
  69
  73
  75
  78
  81
  85
  86
  90
  93
  98
  103
  107
  113
  118
  123
  130
  136
  142
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  200
  210
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -199
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -26
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -25
  -52
  -51
  -50
  -48
  -47
  -45
  -43
  -41
  -39
  -37
  -35
  -32
  -30
  -27
  -25
  -22
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  70.1
  49.1
  34.3
  23.9
  16.7
  11.6
  8.1
  5.6
  3.9
  2.7
  1.9
  1.3
  0.9
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
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Maxwell Technologies, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets energy storage and power delivery products for transportation, industrial, information technology and other applications and microelectronic products for space and satellite applications. The Company offers three product lines: Ultracapacitors, High-Voltage Capacitors and Radiation-Hardened Microelectronic Products. The Company's ultracapacitor cells and multi-cell packs, and modules provide energy storage and power delivery solutions for applications in multiple industries. The Company offers ultracapacitor cells with capacitances ranging from 1 to 3,400 farads. It designs and manufactures CONDIS high-voltage capacitors. These products include grading and coupling capacitors and electric voltage transformers. The Company's radiation-hardened microelectronic products for satellites and spacecraft include single board computers and components, such as high-density memory and data conversion modules.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Maxwell Technologies, Inc. (MXWL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -6.1
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -10.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -7.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -27.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -18.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -15.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.3%
Return On Total Capital -21.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.2%
Return On Equity -21.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.7%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
EBITDA Margin -8.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Operating Margin -21.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -16.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.5%
Net Profit Margin -19.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.1%
Effective Tax Rate -20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -80.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

MXWL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MXWL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $90 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Maxwell Technologies, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Maxwell Technologies, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MXWL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MXWL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Maxwell Technologies, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Maxwell Technologies, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MXWL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 158.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MXWL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 12.1% for Maxwell Technologies, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Maxwell Technologies, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MXWL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MXWL are equal to 38.7%.

Life of production assets of 5.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Maxwell Technologies, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MXWL is equal to 31.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $90.591 million for Maxwell Technologies, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46.009 million for Maxwell Technologies, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Maxwell Technologies, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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