Intrinsic value of MYnd Analytics, Inc. - MYND

Previous Close

$1.17

  Intrinsic Value

$0.06

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$1.17

 
Intrinsic value

$0.06

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MYND stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  2
  2
  4
  5
  8
  10
  14
  18
  24
  30
  37
  45
  55
  65
  76
  89
  102
  117
  132
  149
  166
  184
  203
  224
  245
  266
  289
  313
  338
  363
Variable operating expenses, $m
  17
  27
  40
  58
  82
  113
  151
  198
  255
  322
  400
  489
  589
  701
  824
  959
  1,104
  1,261
  1,428
  1,605
  1,793
  1,990
  2,198
  2,415
  2,641
  2,878
  3,124
  3,380
  3,646
  3,923
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
Total operating expenses, $m
  23
  33
  46
  65
  89
  120
  158
  205
  262
  329
  408
  497
  597
  709
  832
  967
  1,113
  1,270
  1,437
  1,614
  1,802
  2,000
  2,208
  2,425
  2,651
  2,889
  3,135
  3,391
  3,657
  3,935
Operating income, $m
  -22
  -31
  -43
  -59
  -81
  -109
  -144
  -187
  -239
  -300
  -370
  -451
  -542
  -644
  -756
  -878
  -1,011
  -1,153
  -1,305
  -1,466
  -1,636
  -1,816
  -2,004
  -2,201
  -2,407
  -2,622
  -2,845
  -3,078
  -3,320
  -3,571
EBITDA, $m
  -22
  -30
  -42
  -59
  -80
  -108
  -143
  -186
  -237
  -298
  -368
  -448
  -539
  -640
  -751
  -872
  -1,004
  -1,145
  -1,296
  -1,456
  -1,625
  -1,803
  -1,990
  -2,186
  -2,391
  -2,604
  -2,826
  -3,057
  -3,297
  -3,547
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
Earnings before tax, $m
  -22
  -31
  -43
  -60
  -81
  -109
  -145
  -188
  -240
  -301
  -372
  -453
  -545
  -647
  -760
  -883
  -1,016
  -1,159
  -1,312
  -1,474
  -1,645
  -1,826
  -2,015
  -2,214
  -2,421
  -2,637
  -2,862
  -3,096
  -3,339
  -3,592
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -22
  -31
  -43
  -60
  -81
  -109
  -145
  -188
  -240
  -301
  -372
  -453
  -545
  -647
  -760
  -883
  -1,016
  -1,159
  -1,312
  -1,474
  -1,645
  -1,826
  -2,015
  -2,214
  -2,421
  -2,637
  -2,862
  -3,096
  -3,339
  -3,592

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5
  8
  11
  16
  23
  32
  43
  56
  72
  91
  113
  138
  167
  198
  233
  271
  313
  357
  404
  455
  508
  564
  622
  684
  748
  815
  885
  957
  1,032
  1,111
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5
  8
  11
  16
  23
  32
  43
  56
  72
  91
  113
  138
  167
  198
  233
  271
  313
  357
  404
  455
  508
  564
  622
  684
  748
  815
  885
  957
  1,032
  1,111
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.400
  0.250
  0.364
  0.313
  0.348
  0.313
  0.326
  0.321
  0.333
  0.330
  0.327
  0.326
  0.329
  0.328
  0.326
  0.328
  0.326
  0.328
  0.327
  0.327
  0.327
  0.326
  0.326
  0.327
  0.328
  0.326
  0.327
  0.327
  0.328
  0.327
Average production assets, $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  19
  23
  28
  33
  39
  45
  52
  59
  67
  75
  84
  93
  103
  113
  124
  135
  147
  159
  171
  184
Working capital, $m
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -27
  -34
  -41
  -50
  -59
  -69
  -81
  -93
  -106
  -120
  -135
  -151
  -167
  -185
  -203
  -222
  -242
  -263
  -284
  -307
  -330
Total debt, $m
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  15
  20
  26
  33
  41
  51
  61
  73
  86
  100
  115
  131
  149
  167
  187
  207
  229
  252
  275
  300
  326
  353
  380
  409
Total liabilities, $m
  2
  3
  4
  6
  9
  12
  16
  21
  27
  34
  42
  51
  62
  73
  86
  100
  115
  132
  149
  168
  187
  208
  230
  252
  276
  301
  326
  353
  381
  410
Total equity, $m
  3
  5
  7
  10
  15
  20
  27
  35
  46
  58
  71
  87
  105
  125
  147
  171
  197
  225
  255
  287
  320
  356
  393
  431
  472
  514
  558
  604
  651
  701
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5
  8
  11
  16
  24
  32
  43
  56
  73
  92
  113
  138
  167
  198
  233
  271
  312
  357
  404
  455
  507
  564
  623
  683
  748
  815
  884
  957
  1,032
  1,111
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.410
  0.470
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -22
  -31
  -43
  -60
  -81
  -109
  -145
  -188
  -240
  -301
  -372
  -453
  -545
  -647
  -760
  -883
  -1,016
  -1,159
  -1,312
  -1,474
  -1,645
  -1,826
  -2,015
  -2,214
  -2,421
  -2,637
  -2,862
  -3,096
  -3,339
  -3,592
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
Funds from operations, $m
  -22
  -30
  -43
  -59
  -81
  -109
  -144
  -186
  -238
  -299
  -370
  -450
  -542
  -643
  -755
  -877
  -1,009
  -1,151
  -1,303
  -1,464
  -1,634
  -1,813
  -2,002
  -2,199
  -2,404
  -2,619
  -2,842
  -3,075
  -3,316
  -3,568
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
Cash from operations, $m
  -21
  -30
  -41
  -57
  -79
  -106
  -140
  -182
  -233
  -293
  -363
  -443
  -533
  -634
  -745
  -866
  -997
  -1,138
  -1,289
  -1,449
  -1,618
  -1,797
  -1,984
  -2,180
  -2,385
  -2,599
  -2,822
  -3,053
  -3,294
  -3,544
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -30
  -31
  -34
  -36
Free cash flow, $m
  -22
  -30
  -42
  -59
  -80
  -108
  -143
  -186
  -237
  -298
  -369
  -450
  -541
  -642
  -755
  -877
  -1,010
  -1,152
  -1,304
  -1,466
  -1,637
  -1,817
  -2,006
  -2,204
  -2,411
  -2,626
  -2,851
  -3,084
  -3,327
  -3,580
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  23
  32
  45
  63
  86
  115
  152
  196
  250
  313
  386
  469
  563
  667
  782
  907
  1,042
  1,187
  1,342
  1,506
  1,679
  1,861
  2,052
  2,252
  2,461
  2,679
  2,906
  3,141
  3,386
  3,641
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  24
  33
  46
  65
  88
  118
  156
  201
  256
  320
  394
  478
  573
  679
  795
  921
  1,057
  1,203
  1,359
  1,525
  1,699
  1,882
  2,074
  2,275
  2,485
  2,704
  2,932
  3,168
  3,414
  3,670
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  33
  36
  40
  44
  48
  51
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  90
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -23
  -32
  -45
  -63
  -86
  -115
  -152
  -196
  -250
  -313
  -386
  -469
  -563
  -667
  -782
  -907
  -1,042
  -1,187
  -1,342
  -1,506
  -1,679
  -1,861
  -2,052
  -2,252
  -2,461
  -2,679
  -2,906
  -3,141
  -3,386
  -3,641
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -19
  -29
  -41
  -57
  -78
  -105
  -139
  -181
  -231
  -291
  -361
  -440
  -530
  -631
  -742
  -863
  -994
  -1,136
  -1,287
  -1,448
  -1,618
  -1,797
  -1,985
  -2,181
  -2,387
  -2,602
  -2,825
  -3,058
  -3,300
  -3,551
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -18
  -27
  -36
  -47
  -60
  -76
  -94
  -113
  -133
  -153
  -171
  -188
  -202
  -212
  -218
  -219
  -216
  -209
  -198
  -184
  -167
  -149
  -130
  -111
  -93
  -76
  -61
  -47
  -36
  -27
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  17.0
  3.2
  0.7
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

MYnd Analytics, Inc., formerly CNS Response, Inc., is a predictive analytics company. The Company has developed a decision support tool to help physicians reduce trial and error treatment in mental health, and provide personalized care to patients. The Company provides objective clinical decision support to mental healthcare providers for the personalized treatment of behavioral disorders, including depression, anxiety, bipolar disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and other non-psychotic disorders. The Company uses its neurometric platform, PEER Online, to generate Psychiatric electroencephalogram (EEG) Evaluation Registry (PEER) Reports to predict the likelihood of response by an individual to a range of medications prescribed for the treatment of behavioral disorders. As of September 30, 2016, the PEER Online database comprises over 38,000 clinical outcomes for over 10,200 patients with psychiatric or addictive problems.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MYnd Analytics, Inc. (MYND)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.4
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book -2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -600%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -400%
Return On Total Capital 400%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 266.7%
Return On Equity 200%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 145.2%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

MYND stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MYND stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MYnd Analytics, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of MYnd Analytics, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MYND stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MYND is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MYnd Analytics, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MYnd Analytics, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MYND stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 1100%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $6 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MYND stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for MYnd Analytics, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MYnd Analytics, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MYND stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MYND are equal to 50.7%.

Life of production assets of 7.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MYnd Analytics, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MYND is equal to -90.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4.0209 million for MYnd Analytics, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.427 million for MYnd Analytics, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MYnd Analytics, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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