Intrinsic value of MYOS RENS Technology - MYOS

Previous Close

$1.43

  Intrinsic Value

$0.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-94%

Previous close

$1.43

 
Intrinsic value

$0.09

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MYOS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  49.20
  44.78
  40.80
  37.22
  34.00
  31.10
  28.49
  26.14
  24.03
  22.12
  20.41
  18.87
  17.48
  16.24
  15.11
  14.10
  13.19
  12.37
  11.63
  10.97
  10.37
  9.84
  9.35
  8.92
  8.53
  8.17
  7.86
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
Revenue, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  46
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  87
Variable operating expenses, $m
  11
  16
  22
  30
  40
  53
  68
  86
  106
  130
  156
  185
  218
  253
  292
  333
  377
  423
  472
  524
  579
  636
  695
  757
  821
  889
  958
  1,031
  1,106
  1,185
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  11
  16
  22
  30
  40
  53
  68
  86
  106
  130
  156
  185
  218
  253
  292
  333
  377
  423
  472
  524
  579
  636
  695
  757
  821
  889
  958
  1,031
  1,106
  1,185
Operating income, $m
  -10
  -15
  -20
  -28
  -37
  -49
  -63
  -79
  -99
  -120
  -145
  -172
  -202
  -235
  -270
  -308
  -349
  -392
  -438
  -486
  -536
  -589
  -644
  -702
  -761
  -824
  -888
  -956
  -1,026
  -1,098
EBITDA, $m
  -10
  -14
  -20
  -27
  -37
  -48
  -62
  -78
  -97
  -118
  -143
  -170
  -199
  -232
  -267
  -304
  -344
  -387
  -432
  -479
  -529
  -581
  -635
  -692
  -751
  -812
  -876
  -942
  -1,011
  -1,083
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
Earnings before tax, $m
  -10
  -15
  -20
  -28
  -38
  -49
  -63
  -80
  -99
  -120
  -145
  -172
  -202
  -235
  -271
  -309
  -350
  -393
  -439
  -487
  -537
  -590
  -645
  -703
  -763
  -825
  -890
  -957
  -1,027
  -1,100
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -10
  -15
  -20
  -28
  -38
  -49
  -63
  -80
  -99
  -120
  -145
  -172
  -202
  -235
  -271
  -309
  -350
  -393
  -439
  -487
  -537
  -590
  -645
  -703
  -763
  -825
  -890
  -957
  -1,027
  -1,100

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3
  5
  7
  9
  13
  17
  21
  27
  33
  41
  49
  58
  69
  80
  92
  105
  119
  133
  149
  165
  182
  200
  219
  238
  259
  280
  302
  325
  348
  373
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3
  5
  7
  9
  13
  17
  21
  27
  33
  41
  49
  58
  69
  80
  92
  105
  119
  133
  149
  165
  182
  200
  219
  238
  259
  280
  302
  325
  348
  373
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.333
  0.200
  0.286
  0.222
  0.231
  0.235
  0.238
  0.222
  0.242
  0.220
  0.224
  0.241
  0.232
  0.238
  0.228
  0.229
  0.235
  0.233
  0.235
  0.230
  0.231
  0.230
  0.233
  0.231
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.231
  0.233
  0.233
Average production assets, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  82
  89
  95
Working capital, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  38
  40
  43
Total debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
Total equity, $m
  3
  4
  6
  9
  11
  15
  19
  24
  30
  37
  44
  53
  62
  72
  83
  94
  107
  120
  134
  149
  164
  180
  197
  215
  233
  252
  272
  292
  314
  336
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3
  4
  7
  10
  12
  17
  21
  27
  33
  41
  49
  59
  69
  80
  92
  104
  119
  133
  149
  166
  182
  200
  219
  239
  259
  280
  302
  324
  349
  373
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -0.030
  0.010
  0.040
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -10
  -15
  -20
  -28
  -38
  -49
  -63
  -80
  -99
  -120
  -145
  -172
  -202
  -235
  -271
  -309
  -350
  -393
  -439
  -487
  -537
  -590
  -645
  -703
  -763
  -825
  -890
  -957
  -1,027
  -1,100
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
Funds from operations, $m
  -10
  -14
  -20
  -27
  -37
  -48
  -62
  -78
  -97
  -119
  -143
  -170
  -199
  -232
  -267
  -305
  -345
  -387
  -432
  -480
  -530
  -582
  -636
  -693
  -752
  -814
  -878
  -944
  -1,013
  -1,085
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  -10
  -14
  -20
  -28
  -37
  -49
  -63
  -79
  -98
  -119
  -144
  -171
  -201
  -233
  -268
  -306
  -346
  -389
  -434
  -482
  -532
  -584
  -638
  -695
  -754
  -816
  -880
  -947
  -1,016
  -1,088
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Free cash flow, $m
  -10
  -15
  -21
  -29
  -38
  -50
  -64
  -81
  -101
  -123
  -148
  -175
  -206
  -239
  -275
  -313
  -354
  -398
  -444
  -492
  -543
  -596
  -651
  -709
  -769
  -832
  -897
  -965
  -1,035
  -1,108
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  16
  22
  30
  40
  53
  67
  85
  104
  127
  152
  181
  211
  245
  282
  321
  362
  406
  453
  501
  553
  606
  662
  720
  781
  844
  910
  978
  1,049
  1,122
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  16
  22
  30
  40
  53
  67
  86
  105
  128
  153
  182
  212
  246
  283
  322
  363
  407
  455
  503
  555
  608
  664
  722
  783
  846
  912
  980
  1,051
  1,124
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -10
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -9
  -16
  -22
  -30
  -40
  -53
  -67
  -85
  -104
  -127
  -152
  -181
  -211
  -245
  -282
  -321
  -362
  -406
  -453
  -501
  -553
  -606
  -662
  -720
  -781
  -844
  -910
  -978
  -1,049
  -1,122
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -9
  -15
  -21
  -28
  -38
  -50
  -64
  -81
  -100
  -122
  -147
  -174
  -205
  -238
  -273
  -312
  -353
  -396
  -442
  -490
  -541
  -594
  -650
  -707
  -767
  -830
  -895
  -962
  -1,033
  -1,106
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -9
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -30
  -36
  -43
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -80
  -80
  -79
  -77
  -73
  -68
  -62
  -56
  -49
  -43
  -36
  -30
  -24
  -19
  -15
  -11
  -8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  31.9
  10.4
  3.5
  1.2
  0.4
  0.1
  0.1
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MYOS RENS Technology Inc. (MYOS), formerly MYOS Corporation, is an early-stage bionutrition and biotherapeutics company. The Company is focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of products that improve muscle health and function essential for the management of sarcopenia, cachexia and degenerative muscle diseases, and as an adjunct to the treatment of obesity. The Company is focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of nutritional supplements, functional foods, therapeutic products, and other technologies for maintaining the health and performance of muscle tissue. MYOS is evaluating the modulation of myostatin. Its research is focused on developing strategies and therapeutic interventions to address muscle related conditions, including sarcopenia, cachexia, and inherited and acquired muscle diseases. The Company, through its subsidiary, holds the intellectual property pertaining to Fortetropin, which is a dietary supplement.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MYOS RENS Technology (MYOS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.9
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -72.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -76.3%
Return On Total Capital -80%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -81.1%
Return On Equity -88.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -86.6%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -55.6%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -66.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -55.6%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

MYOS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MYOS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $0.526 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MYOS RENS Technology. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of MYOS RENS Technology. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MYOS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 49.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MYOS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MYOS RENS Technology, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MYOS RENS Technology.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MYOS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 1400%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MYOS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for MYOS RENS Technology.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MYOS RENS Technology. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MYOS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MYOS are equal to 109.5%.

Life of production assets of 6.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MYOS RENS Technology operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MYOS is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4.364 million for MYOS RENS Technology - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7.474 million for MYOS RENS Technology is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MYOS RENS Technology at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why MYOS Stock Is Skyrocketing Today   [Dec-11-18 12:11PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ MYOS: Yolked Well-Received, MYOS Canine Formula Launched   [Aug-17-18 02:00PM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ Should You Buy MYOS RENS Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MYOS) Now?   [May-24-18 10:11AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ MYOS: Several Development-Related Milestones Upcoming   [May-16-18 09:45AM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- MYOS RENS Technology Inc./   [May-03-18 08:02PM  PR Newswire]
▶ MYOS: A New Product For Sports Nutrition   [Apr-12-18 10:00AM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ MYOS: Initiation Report   [Apr-03-18 03:15PM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ MYOS RENS Technology CEO Issues Shareholder Letter   [Jan-11-18 06:05AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Who Really Owns MYOS RENS Technology Inc (MYOS)?   [Nov-03-17 02:59PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Why Are These Stocks Gaining Ground on Thursday?   [Dec-17  01:55PM  at Insider Monkey]

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