Intrinsic value of MYR Group - MYRG

Previous Close

$35.06

  Intrinsic Value

$46.65

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+33%

Previous close

$35.06

 
Intrinsic value

$46.65

 
Up/down potential

+33%

 
Rating

buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MYRG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.53
  32.20
  29.48
  27.03
  24.83
  22.85
  21.06
  19.46
  18.01
  16.71
  15.54
  14.48
  13.54
  12.68
  11.91
  11.22
  10.60
  10.04
  9.54
  9.08
  8.67
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
Revenue, $m
  1,142
  1,510
  1,955
  2,483
  3,100
  3,808
  4,610
  5,507
  6,499
  7,584
  8,763
  10,032
  11,390
  12,834
  14,364
  15,975
  17,669
  19,443
  21,297
  23,231
  25,246
  27,344
  29,525
  31,792
  34,148
  36,596
  39,140
  41,785
  44,535
  47,396
  50,373
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,445
  1,869
  2,373
  2,962
  3,637
  4,402
  5,258
  6,204
  7,239
  8,363
  9,569
  10,865
  12,243
  13,701
  15,239
  16,854
  18,546
  20,315
  22,160
  24,082
  26,083
  28,163
  30,326
  32,573
  34,908
  37,335
  39,858
  42,482
  45,210
  48,050
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,104
  1,445
  1,869
  2,373
  2,962
  3,637
  4,402
  5,258
  6,204
  7,239
  8,363
  9,569
  10,865
  12,243
  13,701
  15,239
  16,854
  18,546
  20,315
  22,160
  24,082
  26,083
  28,163
  30,326
  32,573
  34,908
  37,335
  39,858
  42,482
  45,210
  48,050
Operating income, $m
  39
  65
  85
  110
  138
  171
  208
  249
  295
  345
  399
  463
  525
  592
  662
  737
  815
  897
  982
  1,071
  1,164
  1,261
  1,362
  1,466
  1,575
  1,688
  1,805
  1,927
  2,054
  2,186
  2,323
EBITDA, $m
  78
  110
  143
  181
  226
  278
  337
  402
  475
  554
  640
  733
  832
  937
  1,049
  1,167
  1,290
  1,420
  1,555
  1,696
  1,844
  1,997
  2,156
  2,322
  2,494
  2,672
  2,858
  3,051
  3,252
  3,461
  3,678
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  2
  6
  10
  15
  21
  28
  35
  44
  53
  63
  75
  87
  100
  113
  128
  143
  159
  176
  194
  212
  231
  251
  272
  294
  316
  339
  364
  389
  415
  442
Earnings before tax, $m
  38
  63
  80
  100
  123
  150
  180
  214
  251
  292
  336
  388
  439
  492
  549
  609
  672
  737
  806
  877
  952
  1,030
  1,110
  1,194
  1,281
  1,372
  1,466
  1,563
  1,665
  1,771
  1,881
Tax expense, $m
  17
  17
  22
  27
  33
  41
  49
  58
  68
  79
  91
  105
  118
  133
  148
  164
  181
  199
  218
  237
  257
  278
  300
  322
  346
  370
  396
  422
  450
  478
  508
Net income, $m
  21
  46
  58
  73
  90
  110
  132
  156
  183
  213
  245
  283
  320
  359
  401
  444
  490
  538
  588
  641
  695
  752
  810
  872
  935
  1,001
  1,070
  1,141
  1,216
  1,293
  1,373

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  574
  727
  942
  1,196
  1,493
  1,834
  2,221
  2,653
  3,130
  3,653
  4,221
  4,832
  5,486
  6,182
  6,919
  7,695
  8,511
  9,366
  10,259
  11,190
  12,161
  13,171
  14,222
  15,314
  16,449
  17,628
  18,854
  20,128
  21,453
  22,831
  24,265
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  550
  727
  942
  1,196
  1,493
  1,834
  2,221
  2,653
  3,130
  3,653
  4,221
  4,832
  5,486
  6,182
  6,919
  7,695
  8,511
  9,366
  10,259
  11,190
  12,161
  13,171
  14,222
  15,314
  16,449
  17,628
  18,854
  20,128
  21,453
  22,831
  24,265
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.076
  2.077
  2.075
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
Average production assets, $m
  169
  223
  289
  368
  459
  564
  682
  815
  962
  1,122
  1,297
  1,485
  1,686
  1,899
  2,126
  2,364
  2,615
  2,878
  3,152
  3,438
  3,736
  4,047
  4,370
  4,705
  5,054
  5,416
  5,793
  6,184
  6,591
  7,015
  7,455
Working capital, $m
  147
  165
  213
  271
  338
  415
  502
  600
  708
  827
  955
  1,093
  1,242
  1,399
  1,566
  1,741
  1,926
  2,119
  2,321
  2,532
  2,752
  2,980
  3,218
  3,465
  3,722
  3,989
  4,266
  4,555
  4,854
  5,166
  5,491
Total debt, $m
  64
  163
  284
  428
  595
  788
  1,005
  1,249
  1,519
  1,813
  2,134
  2,478
  2,847
  3,240
  3,655
  4,093
  4,553
  5,035
  5,539
  6,064
  6,612
  7,182
  7,774
  8,390
  9,030
  9,695
  10,387
  11,105
  11,852
  12,629
  13,438
Total liabilities, $m
  310
  410
  531
  675
  842
  1,035
  1,252
  1,496
  1,766
  2,060
  2,381
  2,725
  3,094
  3,487
  3,902
  4,340
  4,800
  5,282
  5,786
  6,311
  6,859
  7,429
  8,021
  8,637
  9,277
  9,942
  10,634
  11,352
  12,099
  12,876
  13,685
Total equity, $m
  263
  317
  411
  522
  651
  800
  968
  1,157
  1,365
  1,593
  1,840
  2,107
  2,392
  2,695
  3,017
  3,355
  3,711
  4,083
  4,473
  4,879
  5,302
  5,743
  6,201
  6,677
  7,172
  7,686
  8,220
  8,776
  9,353
  9,954
  10,579
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  573
  727
  942
  1,197
  1,493
  1,835
  2,220
  2,653
  3,131
  3,653
  4,221
  4,832
  5,486
  6,182
  6,919
  7,695
  8,511
  9,365
  10,259
  11,190
  12,161
  13,172
  14,222
  15,314
  16,449
  17,628
  18,854
  20,128
  21,452
  22,830
  24,264
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.243
  0.510
  0.690
  0.820
  0.910
  0.980
  1.040
  1.080
  1.110
  1.140
  1.160
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
  1.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.435
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  21
  46
  58
  73
  90
  110
  132
  156
  183
  213
  245
  283
  320
  359
  401
  444
  490
  538
  588
  641
  695
  752
  810
  872
  935
  1,001
  1,070
  1,141
  1,216
  1,293
  1,373
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  45
  57
  72
  88
  107
  129
  153
  180
  209
  240
  270
  306
  345
  387
  430
  475
  523
  573
  625
  679
  736
  794
  855
  919
  985
  1,053
  1,124
  1,198
  1,275
  1,355
Funds from operations, $m
  40
  91
  116
  144
  178
  217
  260
  309
  363
  422
  486
  553
  627
  705
  787
  874
  966
  1,061
  1,161
  1,266
  1,374
  1,487
  1,605
  1,727
  1,854
  1,986
  2,123
  2,266
  2,414
  2,568
  2,729
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  40
  49
  58
  67
  77
  87
  98
  108
  118
  128
  138
  148
  157
  167
  176
  185
  193
  202
  211
  220
  229
  238
  247
  257
  267
  277
  288
  300
  312
  324
Cash from operations, $m
  54
  51
  67
  87
  111
  140
  173
  211
  255
  304
  357
  415
  479
  547
  621
  699
  781
  868
  959
  1,055
  1,155
  1,259
  1,367
  1,480
  1,597
  1,719
  1,846
  1,977
  2,114
  2,256
  2,404
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -31
  -41
  -53
  -67
  -83
  -102
  -124
  -148
  -175
  -204
  -236
  -270
  -306
  -345
  -387
  -430
  -475
  -523
  -573
  -625
  -679
  -736
  -794
  -855
  -919
  -985
  -1,053
  -1,124
  -1,198
  -1,275
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -54
  -66
  -78
  -91
  -105
  -119
  -133
  -147
  -161
  -174
  -188
  -201
  -214
  -226
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -274
  -286
  -298
  -310
  -323
  -336
  -349
  -362
  -377
  -391
  -407
  -423
  -441
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -34
  -85
  -107
  -131
  -158
  -188
  -221
  -257
  -295
  -336
  -378
  -424
  -471
  -520
  -571
  -626
  -681
  -738
  -797
  -859
  -923
  -989
  -1,059
  -1,130
  -1,204
  -1,281
  -1,362
  -1,444
  -1,531
  -1,621
  -1,716
Free cash flow, $m
  20
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -48
  -45
  -40
  -32
  -21
  -9
  8
  27
  49
  74
  101
  130
  162
  195
  231
  269
  309
  350
  393
  438
  484
  533
  583
  635
  688
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  58
  100
  121
  144
  168
  192
  218
  244
  269
  295
  320
  345
  369
  392
  415
  438
  460
  482
  504
  526
  547
  570
  593
  616
  640
  665
  691
  719
  747
  777
  809
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -95
  31
  35
  38
  39
  39
  37
  32
  25
  15
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -36
  131
  156
  182
  207
  231
  255
  276
  294
  310
  322
  345
  369
  392
  415
  438
  460
  482
  504
  526
  547
  570
  593
  616
  640
  665
  691
  719
  747
  777
  809
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -16
  97
  117
  138
  160
  183
  206
  230
  254
  278
  301
  336
  377
  419
  464
  511
  561
  612
  665
  721
  779
  839
  901
  966
  1,033
  1,103
  1,176
  1,251
  1,330
  1,412
  1,497
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  67
  -77
  -93
  -111
  -129
  -149
  -168
  -188
  -208
  -228
  -247
  -267
  -285
  -303
  -321
  -339
  -356
  -373
  -389
  -406
  -423
  -440
  -458
  -476
  -495
  -514
  -534
  -555
  -578
  -601
  -625
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  43
  23
  27
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  69
  91
  116
  143
  173
  205
  239
  276
  315
  356
  398
  443
  490
  538
  589
  641
  696
  752
  811
  872
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  41
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  28
  29
  29
  28
  33
  39
  44
  48
  51
  52
  52
  51
  48
  45
  41
  37
  32
  27
  23
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.4
  89.9
  86.2
  83.4
  81.1
  79.5
  78.3
  77.5
  77.2
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1
  77.1

MYR Group Inc. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides specialty electrical construction services. The Company performs construction services in two segments: Transmission and Distribution (T&D), and Commercial and Industrial (C&I). The Company provides C&I electrical contracting services to general contractors, commercial and industrial facility owners, local governments and developers in the western and northeastern United States and western Canada. The Company's T&D segment serves the T&D sector of the electric utility industry. The Company provides a range of services on electric transmission and distribution networks and substation facilities, such as design, engineering, procurement, construction and upgrade. The Company's C&I segment provides services, such as the design, installation, maintenance and repair of commercial and industrial wiring, installation of traffic networks and the installation of bridge, roadway and tunnel lighting.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MYR Group (MYRG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.3
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -46.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 24
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 24%
Total Debt to Equity 24.3%
Interest Coverage 39
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 6.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Return On Equity 7.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
EBITDA Margin 6.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Operating Margin 3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Net Profit Margin 1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Effective Tax Rate 44.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

MYRG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MYRG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1142 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MYR Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of MYR Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MYRG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 32.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MYRG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MYR Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MYR Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MYRG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MYRG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for MYR Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MYR Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MYRG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MYRG are equal to 14.8%.

Life of production assets of 5.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MYR Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MYRG is equal to 10.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $263 million for MYR Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.499 million for MYR Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MYR Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to MYR Group, Inc. : November 27, 2017   [Nov-27-17 02:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MYR Group, Inc. : November 8, 2017   [Nov-08-17 06:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for November 3rd   [Nov-03-17 07:20AM  Zacks]
▶ MYR Group Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-02-17 08:35AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ MYR misses 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-01-17 05:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Investor Network: MYR Group Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-03-17 08:35AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ MYR misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-02-17 10:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MYR Group, Inc. : June 19, 2017   [Jun-19-17 03:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why MYR Group Inc.'s Shares Plunged 20% Today   [May-04-17 02:49PM  Motley Fool]
▶ MYR misses Street 1Q forecasts   [May-03-17 05:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is MYR Group Inc (MYRG) A Good Investment?   [Dec-08-16 04:29PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Three Picks to Play Oil Pipelines   [Aug-04-16 11:14AM  at Barrons.com]
Financial statements of MYRG
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