Intrinsic value of Naked Brand Group - NAKD

Previous Close

$1.17

  Intrinsic Value

$0.04

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

Previous close

$1.17

 
Intrinsic value

$0.04

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as NAKD.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NAKD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  5
  7
  11
  15
  22
  30
  40
  52
  67
  85
  106
  129
  156
  186
  218
  254
  292
  334
  378
  425
  475
  527
  582
  639
  699
  762
  827
  895
  966
  1,039
Variable operating expenses, $m
  31
  47
  70
  102
  144
  198
  266
  349
  450
  568
  705
  862
  1,039
  1,237
  1,454
  1,692
  1,948
  2,225
  2,520
  2,833
  3,164
  3,512
  3,878
  4,261
  4,661
  5,078
  5,513
  5,964
  6,434
  6,923
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  31
  47
  70
  102
  144
  198
  266
  349
  450
  568
  705
  862
  1,039
  1,237
  1,454
  1,692
  1,948
  2,225
  2,520
  2,833
  3,164
  3,512
  3,878
  4,261
  4,661
  5,078
  5,513
  5,964
  6,434
  6,923
Operating income, $m
  -26
  -40
  -60
  -87
  -123
  -169
  -226
  -297
  -382
  -483
  -599
  -733
  -883
  -1,051
  -1,236
  -1,438
  -1,656
  -1,891
  -2,141
  -2,408
  -2,689
  -2,985
  -3,296
  -3,622
  -3,962
  -4,316
  -4,685
  -5,069
  -5,469
  -5,884
EBITDA, $m
  -26
  -40
  -60
  -87
  -123
  -168
  -226
  -297
  -382
  -483
  -599
  -733
  -883
  -1,051
  -1,235
  -1,437
  -1,655
  -1,890
  -2,140
  -2,407
  -2,688
  -2,984
  -3,295
  -3,620
  -3,960
  -4,314
  -4,683
  -5,067
  -5,466
  -5,881
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
Earnings before tax, $m
  -26
  -40
  -60
  -87
  -123
  -169
  -227
  -297
  -383
  -483
  -600
  -734
  -885
  -1,053
  -1,238
  -1,440
  -1,659
  -1,894
  -2,145
  -2,412
  -2,694
  -2,990
  -3,302
  -3,628
  -3,969
  -4,324
  -4,694
  -5,078
  -5,479
  -5,894
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -26
  -40
  -60
  -87
  -123
  -169
  -227
  -297
  -383
  -483
  -600
  -734
  -885
  -1,053
  -1,238
  -1,440
  -1,659
  -1,894
  -2,145
  -2,412
  -2,694
  -2,990
  -3,302
  -3,628
  -3,969
  -4,324
  -4,694
  -5,078
  -5,479
  -5,894

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6
  9
  13
  19
  27
  37
  50
  66
  84
  107
  132
  162
  195
  232
  273
  317
  365
  417
  473
  531
  593
  659
  727
  799
  874
  953
  1,034
  1,119
  1,207
  1,299
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6
  9
  13
  19
  27
  37
  50
  66
  84
  107
  132
  162
  195
  232
  273
  317
  365
  417
  473
  531
  593
  659
  727
  799
  874
  953
  1,034
  1,119
  1,207
  1,299
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.833
  0.778
  0.846
  0.789
  0.815
  0.811
  0.800
  0.788
  0.798
  0.794
  0.803
  0.796
  0.800
  0.802
  0.799
  0.801
  0.800
  0.801
  0.799
  0.800
  0.801
  0.800
  0.801
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
Working capital, $m
  2
  4
  5
  8
  11
  15
  20
  26
  34
  43
  53
  65
  78
  93
  109
  127
  146
  167
  189
  213
  237
  264
  291
  320
  350
  381
  414
  448
  483
  519
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  4
  5
  7
  10
  13
  16
  21
  25
  31
  37
  43
  50
  58
  66
  75
  84
  94
  105
  116
  127
  139
  152
  165
  178
  193
  207
Total liabilities, $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  17
  21
  26
  31
  37
  44
  51
  58
  67
  76
  85
  95
  105
  116
  128
  140
  152
  165
  179
  193
  208
Total equity, $m
  5
  7
  11
  16
  23
  31
  42
  55
  71
  89
  111
  136
  164
  195
  229
  267
  307
  351
  397
  446
  498
  553
  611
  671
  734
  800
  869
  940
  1,014
  1,091
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6
  8
  13
  19
  27
  37
  50
  65
  84
  106
  132
  162
  195
  232
  273
  318
  365
  418
  473
  531
  593
  658
  727
  799
  874
  952
  1,034
  1,119
  1,207
  1,299
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.070
  0.110
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -26
  -40
  -60
  -87
  -123
  -169
  -227
  -297
  -383
  -483
  -600
  -734
  -885
  -1,053
  -1,238
  -1,440
  -1,659
  -1,894
  -2,145
  -2,412
  -2,694
  -2,990
  -3,302
  -3,628
  -3,969
  -4,324
  -4,694
  -5,078
  -5,479
  -5,894
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
Funds from operations, $m
  -26
  -40
  -60
  -87
  -123
  -169
  -226
  -297
  -383
  -483
  -600
  -734
  -884
  -1,052
  -1,237
  -1,439
  -1,658
  -1,893
  -2,144
  -2,411
  -2,692
  -2,989
  -3,300
  -3,626
  -3,967
  -4,322
  -4,691
  -5,076
  -5,476
  -5,892
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
Cash from operations, $m
  -27
  -41
  -62
  -89
  -126
  -173
  -231
  -304
  -390
  -492
  -610
  -745
  -898
  -1,067
  -1,254
  -1,457
  -1,677
  -1,914
  -2,166
  -2,434
  -2,717
  -3,015
  -3,328
  -3,655
  -3,997
  -4,353
  -4,724
  -5,110
  -5,511
  -5,928
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
Free cash flow, $m
  -27
  -41
  -62
  -89
  -126
  -173
  -232
  -304
  -390
  -493
  -611
  -746
  -898
  -1,068
  -1,255
  -1,458
  -1,678
  -1,915
  -2,168
  -2,436
  -2,719
  -3,017
  -3,330
  -3,657
  -3,999
  -4,356
  -4,727
  -5,113
  -5,514
  -5,932
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  28
  43
  64
  92
  129
  177
  237
  311
  399
  502
  622
  759
  913
  1,084
  1,272
  1,477
  1,699
  1,937
  2,191
  2,461
  2,746
  3,045
  3,360
  3,688
  4,032
  4,389
  4,762
  5,150
  5,553
  5,971
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  28
  43
  65
  93
  130
  179
  239
  314
  402
  506
  626
  764
  918
  1,090
  1,279
  1,484
  1,707
  1,945
  2,200
  2,470
  2,756
  3,055
  3,371
  3,699
  4,044
  4,402
  4,775
  5,164
  5,567
  5,986
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -28
  -43
  -64
  -92
  -129
  -177
  -237
  -311
  -399
  -502
  -622
  -759
  -913
  -1,084
  -1,272
  -1,477
  -1,699
  -1,937
  -2,191
  -2,461
  -2,746
  -3,045
  -3,360
  -3,688
  -4,032
  -4,389
  -4,762
  -5,150
  -5,553
  -5,971
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -26
  -41
  -61
  -88
  -125
  -171
  -230
  -301
  -387
  -489
  -607
  -741
  -893
  -1,062
  -1,248
  -1,451
  -1,671
  -1,907
  -2,159
  -2,426
  -2,709
  -3,007
  -3,319
  -3,646
  -3,987
  -4,343
  -4,714
  -5,099
  -5,500
  -5,917
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -25
  -37
  -53
  -73
  -97
  -124
  -155
  -188
  -223
  -256
  -288
  -316
  -340
  -357
  -366
  -369
  -364
  -351
  -332
  -308
  -280
  -249
  -218
  -186
  -155
  -127
  -101
  -79
  -60
  -45
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  43.6
  18.9
  8.3
  3.8
  1.7
  0.8
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Naked Brand Group Inc. is an apparel and lifestyle brand company. The Company is focused on innerwear products for women and men. The Company designs, manufactures and sells men's and women's underwear, intimate apparel, loungewear and sleepwear under Naked brand name. The Company sells its products through retail partners and direct to consumer through its online retail store www.wearnaked.com. The Company offers a range of innerwear products for men, including boxer briefs, trunks, briefs, undershirts, t-shirts, lounge pants, lounge shorts and robes. Its primary men's collections include Luxury, Active and Essential. Its women's collections include a range of products, such as boyshorts, hipsters, lounge pants and tops, camisoles, tank tops, pajamas, chemises and sleepshirts. The Company also makes French Terry robes, as well as Double Gauze woven cotton sleepwear.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Naked Brand Group (NAKD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.7
Price to Sales 3.8
Price to Book 7.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 100%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -200%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -543.3%
Return On Total Capital -275%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1055%
Return On Equity -366.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -77.8%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -550%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1516.7%
Operating Margin -550%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -850%
Pre-Tax Margin -550%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1516.7%
Net Profit Margin -550%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1516.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

NAKD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NAKD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2.859884 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Naked Brand Group. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Naked Brand Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NAKD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NAKD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Naked Brand Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Naked Brand Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NAKD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 666.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NAKD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Naked Brand Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Naked Brand Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NAKD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NAKD are equal to 1.3%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Naked Brand Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NAKD is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3.962371 million for Naked Brand Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 22.958 million for Naked Brand Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Naked Brand Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Dont Be Left Exposed to Naked Brands Stock   [Aug-02-18 05:57PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Heidi Klum Seals Naked Deal With CVS; Stock Explodes   [04:00PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Heres What the Bendon Merger Means for Naked Brand Stock   [Jun-25-18 01:07PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Naked Brand Shares Fly Skyward on Bendon Merger   [Jun-20-18 01:32PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Naked Brand Group Inc Stock Flies on Approved Merger   [Jun-12-18 03:05PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Naked Brand Group Announces First Quarter 2018 Results   [Jun-14-17 05:18PM  Business Wire]
▶ Naked Brand Group Launches Comfortably You   [Feb-02-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ HSN and Naked Brand Group Partner to Launch Comfortably You   [Nov-17-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]

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