Intrinsic value of Naked Brand Group Limited - NAKD

Previous Close

$0.26

  Intrinsic Value

$0.03

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

Previous close

$0.26

 
Intrinsic value

$0.03

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as NAKD.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NAKD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  5
  7
  11
  16
  23
  31
  42
  55
  71
  89
  111
  136
  164
  195
  229
  266
  307
  350
  397
  446
  498
  553
  610
  671
  734
  799
  868
  939
  1,013
  1,090
Variable operating expenses, $m
  32
  49
  74
  107
  151
  208
  279
  367
  472
  596
  740
  905
  1,091
  1,298
  1,526
  1,775
  2,045
  2,335
  2,644
  2,973
  3,320
  3,686
  4,070
  4,472
  4,892
  5,329
  5,785
  6,259
  6,752
  7,265
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  32
  49
  74
  107
  151
  208
  279
  367
  472
  596
  740
  905
  1,091
  1,298
  1,526
  1,775
  2,045
  2,335
  2,644
  2,973
  3,320
  3,686
  4,070
  4,472
  4,892
  5,329
  5,785
  6,259
  6,752
  7,265
Operating income, $m
  -27
  -42
  -63
  -91
  -129
  -177
  -237
  -312
  -401
  -507
  -629
  -769
  -927
  -1,103
  -1,297
  -1,509
  -1,738
  -1,984
  -2,247
  -2,527
  -2,822
  -3,133
  -3,459
  -3,801
  -4,158
  -4,530
  -4,917
  -5,321
  -5,740
  -6,175
EBITDA, $m
  -27
  -42
  -63
  -91
  -129
  -177
  -237
  -312
  -401
  -506
  -629
  -769
  -927
  -1,103
  -1,297
  -1,508
  -1,737
  -1,984
  -2,246
  -2,526
  -2,821
  -3,132
  -3,458
  -3,799
  -4,156
  -4,528
  -4,915
  -5,318
  -5,737
  -6,173
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  -27
  -42
  -63
  -91
  -129
  -177
  -238
  -312
  -402
  -507
  -630
  -770
  -929
  -1,105
  -1,299
  -1,511
  -1,741
  -1,988
  -2,251
  -2,531
  -2,827
  -3,138
  -3,465
  -3,808
  -4,165
  -4,538
  -4,926
  -5,330
  -5,750
  -6,186
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -27
  -42
  -63
  -91
  -129
  -177
  -238
  -312
  -402
  -507
  -630
  -770
  -929
  -1,105
  -1,299
  -1,511
  -1,741
  -1,988
  -2,251
  -2,531
  -2,827
  -3,138
  -3,465
  -3,808
  -4,165
  -4,538
  -4,926
  -5,330
  -5,750
  -6,186

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6
  9
  14
  20
  28
  39
  52
  69
  88
  112
  139
  170
  205
  243
  286
  333
  383
  438
  496
  557
  622
  691
  763
  838
  917
  999
  1,085
  1,174
  1,266
  1,362
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6
  9
  14
  20
  28
  39
  52
  69
  88
  112
  139
  170
  205
  243
  286
  333
  383
  438
  496
  557
  622
  691
  763
  838
  917
  999
  1,085
  1,174
  1,266
  1,362
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.833
  0.778
  0.786
  0.800
  0.821
  0.795
  0.808
  0.797
  0.807
  0.795
  0.799
  0.800
  0.800
  0.802
  0.801
  0.799
  0.802
  0.799
  0.800
  0.801
  0.801
  0.800
  0.799
  0.801
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
Working capital, $m
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  16
  21
  28
  35
  45
  56
  68
  82
  97
  114
  133
  153
  175
  198
  223
  249
  276
  305
  335
  367
  400
  434
  469
  506
  545
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  14
  17
  22
  27
  32
  38
  45
  53
  61
  69
  79
  89
  99
  110
  121
  134
  146
  159
  173
  187
  202
  217
Total liabilities, $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  11
  14
  18
  22
  27
  33
  39
  46
  53
  61
  70
  79
  89
  100
  111
  122
  134
  147
  160
  174
  188
  203
  218
Total equity, $m
  5
  8
  12
  17
  24
  33
  44
  58
  74
  94
  117
  143
  172
  204
  240
  280
  322
  368
  416
  468
  523
  581
  641
  704
  770
  839
  911
  986
  1,063
  1,144
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6
  9
  14
  20
  29
  39
  52
  69
  88
  112
  139
  170
  205
  243
  286
  333
  383
  438
  495
  557
  623
  692
  763
  838
  917
  999
  1,085
  1,174
  1,266
  1,362
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.070
  0.110
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -27
  -42
  -63
  -91
  -129
  -177
  -238
  -312
  -402
  -507
  -630
  -770
  -929
  -1,105
  -1,299
  -1,511
  -1,741
  -1,988
  -2,251
  -2,531
  -2,827
  -3,138
  -3,465
  -3,808
  -4,165
  -4,538
  -4,926
  -5,330
  -5,750
  -6,186
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
Funds from operations, $m
  -27
  -42
  -63
  -91
  -129
  -177
  -238
  -312
  -402
  -507
  -630
  -770
  -928
  -1,104
  -1,299
  -1,511
  -1,740
  -1,987
  -2,250
  -2,530
  -2,826
  -3,137
  -3,464
  -3,806
  -4,163
  -4,536
  -4,924
  -5,327
  -5,747
  -6,183
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
Cash from operations, $m
  -28
  -43
  -65
  -94
  -132
  -181
  -243
  -319
  -409
  -516
  -641
  -782
  -942
  -1,120
  -1,316
  -1,529
  -1,760
  -2,009
  -2,273
  -2,555
  -2,852
  -3,164
  -3,493
  -3,836
  -4,195
  -4,569
  -4,958
  -5,363
  -5,784
  -6,222
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
Free cash flow, $m
  -28
  -43
  -65
  -94
  -132
  -181
  -243
  -319
  -410
  -517
  -641
  -783
  -943
  -1,121
  -1,317
  -1,530
  -1,762
  -2,010
  -2,275
  -2,556
  -2,854
  -3,166
  -3,495
  -3,838
  -4,197
  -4,571
  -4,961
  -5,366
  -5,788
  -6,225
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  29
  45
  67
  97
  136
  186
  249
  326
  418
  527
  653
  796
  958
  1,138
  1,335
  1,551
  1,783
  2,033
  2,300
  2,583
  2,882
  3,196
  3,526
  3,871
  4,231
  4,607
  4,998
  5,405
  5,827
  6,267
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  29
  46
  68
  98
  137
  188
  251
  329
  421
  531
  657
  801
  964
  1,144
  1,342
  1,558
  1,791
  2,042
  2,309
  2,593
  2,892
  3,207
  3,538
  3,883
  4,244
  4,620
  5,012
  5,419
  5,842
  6,282
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -45
  -67
  -97
  -136
  -186
  -249
  -326
  -418
  -527
  -653
  -796
  -958
  -1,138
  -1,335
  -1,551
  -1,783
  -2,033
  -2,300
  -2,583
  -2,882
  -3,196
  -3,526
  -3,871
  -4,231
  -4,607
  -4,998
  -5,405
  -5,827
  -6,267
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -27
  -43
  -64
  -93
  -131
  -180
  -241
  -316
  -407
  -513
  -637
  -778
  -937
  -1,115
  -1,310
  -1,523
  -1,753
  -2,001
  -2,266
  -2,546
  -2,843
  -3,155
  -3,483
  -3,826
  -4,185
  -4,558
  -4,947
  -5,352
  -5,773
  -6,210
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -26
  -39
  -56
  -76
  -101
  -130
  -163
  -198
  -234
  -269
  -302
  -332
  -356
  -374
  -385
  -387
  -382
  -369
  -349
  -324
  -294
  -262
  -228
  -195
  -163
  -133
  -106
  -83
  -63
  -47
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  17.4
  3.1
  0.6
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Naked Brand Group Inc. is an apparel and lifestyle brand company. The Company is focused on innerwear products for women and men. The Company designs, manufactures and sells men's and women's underwear, intimate apparel, loungewear and sleepwear under Naked brand name. The Company sells its products through retail partners and direct to consumer through its online retail store www.wearnaked.com. The Company offers a range of innerwear products for men, including boxer briefs, trunks, briefs, undershirts, t-shirts, lounge pants, lounge shorts and robes. Its primary men's collections include Luxury, Active and Essential. Its women's collections include a range of products, such as boyshorts, hipsters, lounge pants and tops, camisoles, tank tops, pajamas, chemises and sleepshirts. The Company also makes French Terry robes, as well as Double Gauze woven cotton sleepwear.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Naked Brand Group Limited (NAKD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.2
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 100%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -200%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -543.3%
Return On Total Capital -275%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1055%
Return On Equity -366.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -77.8%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -550%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1516.7%
Operating Margin -550%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -850%
Pre-Tax Margin -550%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1516.7%
Net Profit Margin -550%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1516.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

NAKD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NAKD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Naked Brand Group Limited. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Naked Brand Group Limited. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NAKD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NAKD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Naked Brand Group Limited, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Naked Brand Group Limited.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NAKD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 666.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NAKD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Naked Brand Group Limited.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Naked Brand Group Limited. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NAKD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NAKD are equal to 1.3%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Naked Brand Group Limited operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NAKD is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3.962371 million for Naked Brand Group Limited - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.449 million for Naked Brand Group Limited is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Naked Brand Group Limited at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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