Intrinsic value of Nathan's Famous - NATH

Previous Close

$70.62

  Intrinsic Value

$2.92

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

Previous close

$70.62

 
Intrinsic value

$2.92

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NATH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  106
  109
  112
  115
  118
  122
  126
  131
  135
  141
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
  311
  326
  342
Variable operating expenses, $m
  78
  79
  82
  84
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
  238
  249
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  78
  79
  82
  84
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
  238
  249
Operating income, $m
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
EBITDA, $m
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  14
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
Earnings before tax, $m
  14
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
Tax expense, $m
  4
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
Net income, $m
  11
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.524
  2.535
  2.545
  2.556
  2.565
  2.542
  2.571
  2.569
  2.547
  2.564
  2.561
  2.533
  2.548
  2.538
  2.529
  2.571
  2.541
  2.545
  2.563
  2.560
  2.557
  2.554
  2.563
  2.554
  2.547
  2.550
  2.560
  2.549
  2.547
  2.552
Average production assets, $m
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
Working capital, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Total debt, $m
  18
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
Total liabilities, $m
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
Total equity, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  41
  42
  43
  44
  47
  48
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  68
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.220
  4.330
  4.450
  4.570
  4.700
  4.840
  4.970
  5.110
  5.250
  5.390
  5.530
  5.660
  5.790
  5.930
  6.050
  6.180
  6.300
  6.410
  6.530
  6.630
  6.740
  6.840
  6.940
  7.030
  7.120
  7.210
  7.290
  7.370
  7.440
  7.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  11
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Funds from operations, $m
  12
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  12
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Free cash flow, $m
  11
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -127
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  118
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -9
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -128
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -88
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
Discount rate, %
  12.80
  13.44
  14.11
  14.82
  15.56
  16.34
  17.15
  18.01
  18.91
  19.86
  20.85
  21.89
  22.99
  24.14
  25.34
  26.61
  27.94
  29.34
  30.80
  32.34
  33.96
  35.66
  37.44
  39.32
  41.28
  43.35
  45.51
  47.79
  50.18
  52.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -78
  16
  14
  13
  11
  10
  8
  7
  6
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Nathan's Famous, Inc. (Nathan's) is a licensor, wholesaler and retailer of products marketed under Nathan's Famous brand. The Company's products are marketed for sale in approximately 55,000 locations, including supermarkets, mass merchandisers and club stores, selected foodservice locations and Company-owned and franchised restaurants throughout the United States and in over 10 foreign territories and countries. The Company also owns, through its subsidiary, NF Treacher's Corp., the Arthur Treacher's brand and trademarks. Nathan's uses the Arthur Treacher's brand, products and trademarks as a branded seafood menu-line extension for inclusion in certain Nathan's Famous restaurants. The Company offers Natural Casing Beef Frankfurters, Cheddar Cheese Beef Franks, Bun-Length Skinless Beef Franks, Angus Beef Franks, Jumbo Crinkle Cut French Fries, Thick Sliced Battered Onion Rings, Cocktail Smokies, Beef Cocktail Franks and Beef Cocktail Franks Dual Pack.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Nathan's Famous (NATH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 42.2
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book -4.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 29.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -24.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -198.5%
Total Debt to Equity -198.5%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 20.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Return On Total Capital 11.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Return On Equity -10.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -56.4%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 42.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.1%
EBITDA Margin 27.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.3%
Operating Margin 27.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Net Profit Margin 7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Effective Tax Rate 41.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

NATH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NATH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $104.201 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Nathan's Famous. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Nathan's Famous. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NATH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.8%, whose default value for NATH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Nathan's Famous, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Nathan's Famous.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NATH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NATH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.8% for Nathan's Famous.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Nathan's Famous. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NATH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NATH are equal to 8.1%.

Life of production assets of 6.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Nathan's Famous operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NATH is equal to -3.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-84.568 million for Nathan's Famous - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 4.188 million for Nathan's Famous is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Nathan's Famous at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Nathan's: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Nov-02-18 08:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Nathan's: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-03-18 08:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest   [Jul-04-18 02:46PM  Bloomberg]
▶ Hot Dog Eaters Weigh-In For Competition   [Jul-03-18 03:19PM  Associated Press Videos]
▶ Would you pay $30 for bottled hot dog water?   [Jun-22-18 01:12PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Nathans Famous, Inc. Stock Pops on Q4 Earnings Results   [Jun-08-18 02:29PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Nathan's: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [09:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Nathans Famous Incs (NASDAQ:NATH) CEO Being Overpaid?   [Apr-20-18 08:18PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Nathan's reports 3Q loss   [Feb-02-18 04:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ The 3 Top Performing Restaurant Stocks of 2017   [Dec-17-17 02:44PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Nathan's posts 2Q profit   [Nov-03-17 11:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is It Time To Sell Nathans Famous Inc (NATH)?   [Oct-09-17 06:59PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Schlumberger, Nathan's Famous rise; BofA, Nvidia fall   [Sep-05-17 04:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Nathan's Famous Offers Tasty Growth at a Discount   [Sep-01-17 11:20PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Nathan's posts 1Q profit   [Aug-05-17 12:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Nathan's Famous, Inc. Reports First Quarter Results   [Aug-04-17 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Coney Island Hangs on With a Mix of Nostalgia and 21st-Century Sizzle   [Jul-05-17 12:12AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Nathans Hot-Dog Eaters Aim To Bring Title Home   [Jul-02-17 11:35PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Nathan's Hot-Dog Eaters Aim to Bring Title Home   [09:31PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Nathan's Hotdog Eating Contest: By The Numbers   [Jun-30-17 01:47PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Restaurateur Nathan Handwerker Doggedly Pursued The American Dream   [Jun-24-17 10:26AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ [$$] Hidden in Plain Sight: A Powerful Way to Beat the Market   [Jun-14-17 12:57AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Nathan's posts 4Q profit   [Jun-09-17 08:40AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hot Dog! Nathan's Enters Sponsorship Deal With MLB   [Mar-28-17 10:29AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Nathan's posts 3Q profit   [Feb-03-17 08:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ LD Micro Index Reconstitution as of February 1, 2017   [Feb-01-17 09:45AM  Accesswire]
▶ Heres What Smart Money Think about Jones Energy Inc (JONE)   [Dec-12-16 05:45PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ What Iconic Franchises Looked Like at the Very Beginning   [Nov-21-16 08:27AM  at The Wall Street Journal]

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