Intrinsic value of National Instruments - NATI

Previous Close

$44.86

  Intrinsic Value

$18.74

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-58%

Previous close

$44.86

 
Intrinsic value

$18.74

 
Up/down potential

-58%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NATI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  1,353
  1,421
  1,492
  1,567
  1,645
  1,727
  1,814
  1,904
  2,000
  2,100
  2,205
  2,315
  2,431
  2,552
  2,680
  2,814
  2,954
  3,102
  3,257
  3,420
  3,591
  3,771
  3,959
  4,157
  4,365
  4,583
  4,812
  5,053
  5,306
  5,571
Variable operating expenses, $m
  776
  813
  852
  892
  935
  980
  1,027
  1,076
  1,128
  1,183
  1,201
  1,261
  1,324
  1,390
  1,460
  1,533
  1,609
  1,690
  1,774
  1,863
  1,956
  2,054
  2,157
  2,265
  2,378
  2,497
  2,622
  2,753
  2,890
  3,035
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  420
  429
  439
  448
  458
  468
  479
  489
  500
  511
  522
  534
  545
  557
  570
  582
  595
  608
  621
  635
  649
  663
  678
  693
  708
  724
  740
  756
  773
  790
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,196
  1,242
  1,291
  1,340
  1,393
  1,448
  1,506
  1,565
  1,628
  1,694
  1,723
  1,795
  1,869
  1,947
  2,030
  2,115
  2,204
  2,298
  2,395
  2,498
  2,605
  2,717
  2,835
  2,958
  3,086
  3,221
  3,362
  3,509
  3,663
  3,825
Operating income, $m
  157
  179
  202
  226
  252
  279
  308
  339
  371
  406
  482
  520
  561
  604
  650
  699
  750
  804
  861
  922
  986
  1,053
  1,124
  1,200
  1,279
  1,363
  1,451
  1,545
  1,643
  1,747
EBITDA, $m
  262
  287
  314
  342
  371
  403
  436
  471
  508
  548
  589
  633
  680
  729
  781
  836
  894
  956
  1,021
  1,089
  1,161
  1,238
  1,318
  1,403
  1,493
  1,587
  1,687
  1,792
  1,902
  2,019
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
Earnings before tax, $m
  157
  178
  199
  222
  247
  273
  300
  329
  360
  393
  467
  503
  542
  584
  627
  673
  722
  774
  828
  886
  947
  1,011
  1,079
  1,151
  1,226
  1,306
  1,391
  1,480
  1,574
  1,673
Tax expense, $m
  42
  48
  54
  60
  67
  74
  81
  89
  97
  106
  126
  136
  146
  158
  169
  182
  195
  209
  224
  239
  256
  273
  291
  311
  331
  353
  376
  400
  425
  452
Net income, $m
  115
  130
  145
  162
  180
  199
  219
  240
  263
  287
  341
  367
  396
  426
  458
  491
  527
  565
  605
  647
  691
  738
  788
  840
  895
  954
  1,015
  1,080
  1,149
  1,221

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,494
  1,569
  1,647
  1,729
  1,816
  1,907
  2,002
  2,102
  2,207
  2,317
  2,433
  2,555
  2,683
  2,817
  2,958
  3,106
  3,261
  3,424
  3,595
  3,775
  3,964
  4,162
  4,370
  4,588
  4,818
  5,059
  5,312
  5,577
  5,856
  6,149
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,494
  1,569
  1,647
  1,729
  1,816
  1,907
  2,002
  2,102
  2,207
  2,317
  2,433
  2,555
  2,683
  2,817
  2,958
  3,106
  3,261
  3,424
  3,595
  3,775
  3,964
  4,162
  4,370
  4,588
  4,818
  5,059
  5,312
  5,577
  5,856
  6,149
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
  0.906
Average production assets, $m
  662
  695
  730
  766
  804
  845
  887
  931
  978
  1,027
  1,078
  1,132
  1,189
  1,248
  1,310
  1,376
  1,445
  1,517
  1,593
  1,672
  1,756
  1,844
  1,936
  2,033
  2,134
  2,241
  2,353
  2,471
  2,594
  2,724
Working capital, $m
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  200
  210
  220
  231
  243
  255
  268
  281
  295
  310
  326
  342
  359
  377
  396
  416
  437
  458
  481
  505
  531
  557
  585
Total debt, $m
  22
  45
  69
  94
  121
  149
  178
  209
  241
  275
  311
  349
  388
  429
  473
  518
  566
  616
  669
  724
  782
  843
  908
  975
  1,045
  1,120
  1,198
  1,279
  1,365
  1,455
Total liabilities, $m
  460
  483
  507
  533
  559
  587
  617
  647
  680
  714
  749
  787
  826
  868
  911
  957
  1,004
  1,055
  1,107
  1,163
  1,221
  1,282
  1,346
  1,413
  1,484
  1,558
  1,636
  1,718
  1,804
  1,894
Total equity, $m
  1,034
  1,085
  1,140
  1,197
  1,257
  1,319
  1,385
  1,455
  1,527
  1,604
  1,684
  1,768
  1,856
  1,949
  2,047
  2,149
  2,257
  2,369
  2,488
  2,612
  2,743
  2,880
  3,024
  3,175
  3,334
  3,501
  3,676
  3,860
  4,052
  4,255
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,494
  1,568
  1,647
  1,730
  1,816
  1,906
  2,002
  2,102
  2,207
  2,318
  2,433
  2,555
  2,682
  2,817
  2,958
  3,106
  3,261
  3,424
  3,595
  3,775
  3,964
  4,162
  4,370
  4,588
  4,818
  5,059
  5,312
  5,578
  5,856
  6,149
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.040
  0.060
  0.080
  0.100
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692
  0.692

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  115
  130
  145
  162
  180
  199
  219
  240
  263
  287
  341
  367
  396
  426
  458
  491
  527
  565
  605
  647
  691
  738
  788
  840
  895
  954
  1,015
  1,080
  1,149
  1,221
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  105
  108
  112
  116
  119
  123
  128
  132
  137
  142
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  144
  152
  159
  167
  176
  184
  194
  203
  213
  224
  235
  247
  259
  272
Funds from operations, $m
  220
  238
  257
  278
  299
  322
  347
  372
  400
  429
  448
  481
  515
  551
  589
  629
  672
  716
  764
  814
  867
  922
  981
  1,043
  1,109
  1,178
  1,251
  1,327
  1,408
  1,494
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Cash from operations, $m
  213
  231
  250
  270
  291
  314
  338
  363
  390
  418
  437
  469
  503
  538
  575
  615
  657
  701
  748
  797
  849
  904
  961
  1,022
  1,087
  1,155
  1,227
  1,302
  1,382
  1,466
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -184
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
New CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -216
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -264
  -276
  -291
  -305
  -320
  -336
  -353
  -371
  -389
Free cash flow, $m
  119
  132
  146
  161
  176
  193
  211
  230
  250
  271
  283
  307
  333
  360
  388
  418
  450
  484
  520
  558
  598
  640
  685
  732
  782
  835
  890
  949
  1,011
  1,077
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  141
  155
  170
  186
  203
  221
  240
  261
  282
  305
  319
  345
  372
  401
  432
  464
  498
  534
  573
  613
  656
  701
  749
  799
  853
  909
  968
  1,031
  1,097
  1,167
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -203
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  143
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
Cash available for distribution, $m
  235
  103
  116
  129
  143
  158
  174
  191
  210
  229
  239
  261
  284
  308
  334
  362
  391
  422
  454
  489
  525
  564
  605
  648
  694
  742
  793
  847
  904
  964
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  225
  94
  101
  106
  111
  115
  118
  120
  120
  120
  113
  111
  108
  103
  98
  92
  85
  78
  70
  62
  54
  47
  40
  33
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

National Instruments Corporation (NI) designs, manufactures and sells systems to engineers and scientists. The Company offers a line of measurement, automation and control products. It offers products, technology and services, which include system design software, programming tools, application software, modular hardware products and related driver software, production test systems, NI education platform, software products for teaching and hardware products for teaching. It also offers NI Services, including hardware services and maintenance, software maintenance services, and training and certification. Its products are used across various industries in a range of applications, including research and development, simulation and modeling, prototype and validation, production testing and industrial control and field and factory service and repair. It serves various industries and applications, such as consumer electronics, commercial aerospace, telecommunications and others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  National Instruments (NATI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 69.8
Price to Sales 4.7
Price to Book 5.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 29.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 49.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 2.2%
Total Debt to Equity 2.2%
Interest Coverage 116
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 7.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Return On Equity 7.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 74.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 74.4%
EBITDA Margin 15.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Operating Margin 9.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Net Profit Margin 6.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Effective Tax Rate 27.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
Payout Ratio 124.1%

NATI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NATI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1289 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by National Instruments. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of National Instruments. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NATI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NATI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of National Instruments, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of National Instruments.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NATI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 57.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $411 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NATI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for National Instruments.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for National Instruments. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NATI stock is equal to 2.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NATI are equal to 48.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in National Instruments operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NATI is equal to 10.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1128 million for National Instruments - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 130 million for National Instruments is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of National Instruments at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ National Instruments: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-26-18 05:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ NI Declares Quarterly Dividend   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ NI Showcases 5G Test with Skyworks   [08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ NI and NanoSemi Collaborate on Advanced 5G Test Capability   [Jun-12-18 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Best NasdaqGS Tech Dividend Picks For The Day   [Jun-08-18 05:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ The new king of Austin's publicly traded companies   [Jun-06-18 11:45AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ National Instruments to Host Investor Conference at NIWeek   [May-21-18 04:18PM  Business Wire]
▶ Why National Instruments Stock Fell 19% in April   [May-10-18 01:44PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Value-Adding Tech Dividend Stocks To Buy Now   [May-06-18 05:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ National Instruments Has High Hopes Despite Sales Slump   [Apr-26-18 06:43PM  Motley Fool]
▶ National Instruments: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ NI Declares Quarterly Dividend   [04:06PM  Business Wire]
▶ National Instruments Starts 2018 Strong   [Jan-30-18 07:18PM  Motley Fool]
▶ National Instruments reports 4Q loss   [04:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ NI Declares Quarterly Dividend   [04:08PM  Business Wire]
▶ Test Smarter With the Latest Enhancements to LabVIEW NXG   [Jan-23-18 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why National Instruments Corporation (NATI) Could Be A Buy   [Dec-05-17 05:35PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Record Revenue, Profit Lift National Instruments   [Oct-27-17 09:32AM  Motley Fool]
▶ National Instruments tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-26-17 05:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ NI Declares Quarterly Dividend   [04:06PM  Business Wire]
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