Intrinsic value of Navigant Consulting - NCI

Previous Close

$21.26

  Intrinsic Value

$27.13

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+28%

Previous close

$21.26

 
Intrinsic value

$27.13

 
Up/down potential

+28%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of NCI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,053
  1,077
  1,105
  1,136
  1,170
  1,208
  1,249
  1,293
  1,341
  1,393
  1,448
  1,507
  1,569
  1,636
  1,706
  1,781
  1,860
  1,944
  2,032
  2,126
  2,224
  2,328
  2,438
  2,553
  2,675
  2,803
  2,938
  3,079
  3,228
  3,385
Variable operating expenses, $m
  951
  972
  995
  1,021
  1,050
  1,082
  1,116
  1,154
  1,194
  1,238
  1,218
  1,268
  1,320
  1,376
  1,435
  1,498
  1,565
  1,635
  1,710
  1,788
  1,871
  1,959
  2,051
  2,148
  2,250
  2,358
  2,471
  2,590
  2,716
  2,848
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  951
  972
  995
  1,021
  1,050
  1,082
  1,116
  1,154
  1,194
  1,238
  1,218
  1,268
  1,320
  1,376
  1,435
  1,498
  1,565
  1,635
  1,710
  1,788
  1,871
  1,959
  2,051
  2,148
  2,250
  2,358
  2,471
  2,590
  2,716
  2,848
Operating income, $m
  101
  105
  110
  114
  120
  126
  132
  140
  147
  155
  230
  239
  249
  260
  271
  283
  295
  309
  323
  338
  353
  370
  387
  405
  425
  445
  466
  489
  513
  537
EBITDA, $m
  243
  248
  255
  262
  270
  279
  288
  298
  309
  321
  334
  348
  362
  377
  394
  411
  429
  448
  469
  490
  513
  537
  562
  589
  617
  646
  678
  710
  745
  781
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
Earnings before tax, $m
  94
  98
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  215
  223
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
  284
  297
  310
  323
  338
  353
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  463
  485
Tax expense, $m
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
Net income, $m
  69
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  104
  157
  163
  170
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  309
  323
  338
  354

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,101
  1,126
  1,155
  1,188
  1,224
  1,263
  1,306
  1,353
  1,403
  1,457
  1,515
  1,576
  1,642
  1,711
  1,785
  1,863
  1,946
  2,034
  2,126
  2,224
  2,327
  2,435
  2,550
  2,671
  2,798
  2,932
  3,073
  3,221
  3,377
  3,541
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,101
  1,126
  1,155
  1,188
  1,224
  1,263
  1,306
  1,353
  1,403
  1,457
  1,515
  1,576
  1,642
  1,711
  1,785
  1,863
  1,946
  2,034
  2,126
  2,224
  2,327
  2,435
  2,550
  2,671
  2,798
  2,932
  3,073
  3,221
  3,377
  3,541
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.956
  0.956
  0.957
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
  0.956
Average production assets, $m
  757
  774
  794
  816
  841
  868
  898
  930
  964
  1,002
  1,041
  1,083
  1,128
  1,176
  1,227
  1,281
  1,338
  1,398
  1,461
  1,528
  1,599
  1,674
  1,753
  1,836
  1,923
  2,015
  2,112
  2,214
  2,321
  2,434
Working capital, $m
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
Total debt, $m
  140
  150
  160
  172
  185
  200
  215
  232
  250
  270
  291
  313
  337
  363
  389
  418
  448
  480
  514
  549
  587
  626
  668
  712
  758
  807
  858
  912
  969
  1,029
Total liabilities, $m
  401
  410
  421
  432
  445
  460
  476
  492
  511
  530
  551
  574
  598
  623
  650
  678
  708
  740
  774
  809
  847
  887
  928
  972
  1,018
  1,067
  1,118
  1,172
  1,229
  1,289
Total equity, $m
  700
  716
  735
  755
  778
  804
  831
  861
  892
  927
  963
  1,002
  1,044
  1,088
  1,135
  1,185
  1,238
  1,293
  1,352
  1,414
  1,480
  1,549
  1,622
  1,699
  1,779
  1,865
  1,954
  2,049
  2,148
  2,252
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,101
  1,126
  1,156
  1,187
  1,223
  1,264
  1,307
  1,353
  1,403
  1,457
  1,514
  1,576
  1,642
  1,711
  1,785
  1,863
  1,946
  2,033
  2,126
  2,223
  2,327
  2,436
  2,550
  2,671
  2,797
  2,932
  3,072
  3,221
  3,377
  3,541
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636
  0.636

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  69
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  104
  157
  163
  170
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  309
  323
  338
  354
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  141
  143
  145
  147
  150
  153
  156
  159
  162
  166
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  184
  192
  202
  211
  221
  232
  243
Funds from operations, $m
  210
  214
  219
  225
  231
  237
  244
  252
  261
  269
  261
  271
  282
  294
  306
  319
  333
  347
  363
  379
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  520
  544
  570
  598
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  210
  215
  220
  225
  231
  238
  245
  253
  261
  270
  262
  272
  283
  295
  307
  320
  334
  348
  364
  380
  397
  415
  434
  455
  476
  498
  521
  546
  572
  599
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -74
  -76
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -192
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -232
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -107
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -284
  -299
  -313
  -328
  -345
Free cash flow, $m
  122
  122
  122
  123
  125
  126
  129
  131
  134
  137
  122
  126
  130
  134
  139
  144
  149
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
  255
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  129
  131
  133
  135
  138
  141
  144
  148
  152
  156
  143
  148
  154
  159
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  287
  300
  314
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
Cash available for distribution, $m
  116
  115
  114
  114
  115
  116
  117
  118
  120
  122
  107
  109
  112
  115
  119
  122
  126
  131
  135
  140
  146
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  111
  105
  100
  94
  89
  84
  79
  74
  69
  64
  51
  47
  43
  39
  35
  31
  27
  24
  21
  18
  15
  13
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Navigant Consulting, Inc. is a global professional services company. The Company serves clients in the healthcare, energy and financial services industries. It operates through four segments. The Healthcare segment provides consulting services and business process management services. The Energy segment provides advisory solutions in business strategy and planning, distributed energy resources and renewables, energy efficiency and demand response and grid modernization The Financial Services Advisory and Compliance segment provides strategic, operational, valuation, risk management, investigative and compliance advisory services to clients primarily in the financial services industry. The Disputes, Forensics & Legal Technology segment offers professional services, including valuation and economic analysis, as well as accounting, regulatory, construction and computer forensic expertise.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Navigant Consulting (NCI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.2
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -27.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 21.3%
Total Debt to Equity 21.3%
Interest Coverage 24
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Total Capital 7.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Equity 9.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
EBITDA Margin 13.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Operating Margin 9.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 37.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Payout Ratio 0%

NCI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NCI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1032 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Navigant Consulting. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Navigant Consulting. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NCI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NCI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Navigant Consulting, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Navigant Consulting.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NCI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NCI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Navigant Consulting.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Navigant Consulting. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NCI stock is equal to 1.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NCI are equal to 71.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Navigant Consulting operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NCI is equal to -1.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $687 million for Navigant Consulting - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47 million for Navigant Consulting is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Navigant Consulting at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] Navigant to Sell Units to Madison Dearborn's Ankura for $470 Million   [Jun-25-18 01:33PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Navigant to Sell Units to Ankura for $470 Million   [10:44AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Top Cheap Stocks in June   [10:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Navigant Announces Agreement with Engine Capital   [May-10-18 07:14AM  Business Wire]
▶ Navigant: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 07:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Cheap Stocks This Week   [Apr-25-18 10:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Baptist Health signs joint venture with publicly-traded company   [Apr-11-18 06:22AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Top NasdaqGS Cheap Stocks To Buy   [Mar-19-18 10:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Navigant Expands into Australia   [Mar-12-18 03:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Valuation Expert Andrew Caldwell Joins Navigant   [Mar-05-18 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Navigant misses Street 4Q forecasts   [07:50AM  Associated Press]
▶ Navigant Elects Jeffrey Yingling to Board of Directors   [Feb-12-18 04:32PM  Business Wire]
▶ Navigant Appoints Managing Directors to Healthcare Segment   [Feb-01-18 07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Navigant Expands Presence in Berlin   [Jan-29-18 07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Navigant Comments on Letter from Engine Capital LP   [Jan-24-18 04:52PM  Business Wire]
▶ Navigant Announces Managing Director Promotions   [Dec-20-17 07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Navigant Expands Global Construction Practice in London   [Dec-18-17 07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Four Senior Leaders Join Navigants Global Energy Practice   [Nov-07-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Navigant misses Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-26-17 08:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Kathleen Walsh Joins Navigants Board of Directors   [Oct-24-17 09:19AM  Business Wire]
▶ Navigant misses Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-31-17 10:06PM  Associated Press]
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