Intrinsic value of Newmont Mining - NEM

Previous Close

$33.61

  Intrinsic Value

$4.94

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-85%

Previous close

$33.61

 
Intrinsic value

$4.94

 
Up/down potential

-85%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NEM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 17.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  7,495
  7,667
  7,864
  8,086
  8,331
  8,600
  8,893
  9,210
  9,551
  9,918
  10,310
  10,728
  11,174
  11,647
  12,150
  12,682
  13,246
  13,842
  14,472
  15,136
  15,838
  16,578
  17,358
  18,180
  19,045
  19,956
  20,916
  21,925
  22,987
  24,103
Variable operating expenses, $m
  7,502
  7,675
  7,872
  8,094
  8,339
  8,608
  8,901
  9,219
  9,561
  9,928
  10,320
  10,739
  11,185
  11,659
  12,162
  12,695
  13,259
  13,856
  14,486
  15,152
  15,854
  16,595
  17,375
  18,198
  19,064
  19,976
  20,936
  21,947
  23,010
  24,128
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,502
  7,675
  7,872
  8,094
  8,339
  8,608
  8,901
  9,219
  9,561
  9,928
  10,320
  10,739
  11,185
  11,659
  12,162
  12,695
  13,259
  13,856
  14,486
  15,152
  15,854
  16,595
  17,375
  18,198
  19,064
  19,976
  20,936
  21,947
  23,010
  24,128
Operating income, $m
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
EBITDA, $m
  1,271
  1,300
  1,334
  1,371
  1,413
  1,459
  1,508
  1,562
  1,620
  1,682
  1,749
  1,820
  1,895
  1,975
  2,061
  2,151
  2,247
  2,348
  2,454
  2,567
  2,686
  2,812
  2,944
  3,083
  3,230
  3,385
  3,547
  3,719
  3,899
  4,088
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  228
  238
  252
  267
  284
  303
  323
  346
  370
  397
  425
  455
  487
  521
  558
  597
  637
  681
  727
  775
  826
  880
  937
  997
  1,061
  1,127
  1,197
  1,271
  1,349
  1,430
Earnings before tax, $m
  -235
  -246
  -259
  -275
  -292
  -311
  -332
  -355
  -380
  -406
  -435
  -466
  -498
  -533
  -570
  -609
  -651
  -695
  -741
  -790
  -842
  -897
  -955
  -1,015
  -1,080
  -1,147
  -1,218
  -1,293
  -1,372
  -1,454
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -235
  -246
  -259
  -275
  -292
  -311
  -332
  -355
  -380
  -406
  -435
  -466
  -498
  -533
  -570
  -609
  -651
  -695
  -741
  -790
  -842
  -897
  -955
  -1,015
  -1,080
  -1,147
  -1,218
  -1,293
  -1,372
  -1,454

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  19,071
  19,510
  20,011
  20,574
  21,198
  21,882
  22,627
  23,434
  24,303
  25,236
  26,234
  27,298
  28,432
  29,637
  30,915
  32,270
  33,704
  35,221
  36,823
  38,515
  40,301
  42,183
  44,168
  46,259
  48,461
  50,780
  53,220
  55,788
  58,490
  61,332
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  19,071
  19,510
  20,011
  20,574
  21,198
  21,882
  22,627
  23,434
  24,303
  25,236
  26,234
  27,298
  28,432
  29,637
  30,915
  32,270
  33,704
  35,221
  36,823
  38,515
  40,301
  42,183
  44,168
  46,259
  48,461
  50,780
  53,220
  55,788
  58,490
  61,332
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
Average production assets, $m
  12,659
  12,950
  13,283
  13,657
  14,071
  14,525
  15,020
  15,555
  16,132
  16,751
  17,413
  18,120
  18,873
  19,672
  20,521
  21,420
  22,372
  23,379
  24,442
  25,566
  26,751
  28,000
  29,318
  30,705
  32,167
  33,706
  35,326
  37,031
  38,824
  40,711
Working capital, $m
  360
  368
  377
  388
  400
  413
  427
  442
  458
  476
  495
  515
  536
  559
  583
  609
  636
  664
  695
  727
  760
  796
  833
  873
  914
  958
  1,004
  1,052
  1,103
  1,157
Total debt, $m
  4,256
  4,493
  4,764
  5,068
  5,405
  5,774
  6,177
  6,612
  7,082
  7,585
  8,124
  8,699
  9,311
  9,962
  10,652
  11,384
  12,158
  12,977
  13,843
  14,756
  15,720
  16,737
  17,809
  18,938
  20,127
  21,379
  22,697
  24,084
  25,543
  27,077
Total liabilities, $m
  10,298
  10,535
  10,806
  11,110
  11,447
  11,816
  12,219
  12,654
  13,124
  13,627
  14,166
  14,741
  15,353
  16,004
  16,694
  17,426
  18,200
  19,019
  19,885
  20,798
  21,762
  22,779
  23,851
  24,980
  26,169
  27,421
  28,739
  30,126
  31,585
  33,119
Total equity, $m
  8,773
  8,974
  9,205
  9,464
  9,751
  10,066
  10,409
  10,780
  11,179
  11,609
  12,068
  12,557
  13,079
  13,633
  14,221
  14,844
  15,504
  16,202
  16,939
  17,717
  18,538
  19,404
  20,317
  21,279
  22,292
  23,359
  24,481
  25,663
  26,905
  28,213
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  19,071
  19,509
  20,011
  20,574
  21,198
  21,882
  22,628
  23,434
  24,303
  25,236
  26,234
  27,298
  28,432
  29,637
  30,915
  32,270
  33,704
  35,221
  36,824
  38,515
  40,300
  42,183
  44,168
  46,259
  48,461
  50,780
  53,220
  55,789
  58,490
  61,332
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.490
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.570
  0.590
  0.610
  0.630
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.850
  0.860
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -235
  -246
  -259
  -275
  -292
  -311
  -332
  -355
  -380
  -406
  -435
  -466
  -498
  -533
  -570
  -609
  -651
  -695
  -741
  -790
  -842
  -897
  -955
  -1,015
  -1,080
  -1,147
  -1,218
  -1,293
  -1,372
  -1,454
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,279
  1,308
  1,342
  1,379
  1,421
  1,467
  1,517
  1,571
  1,629
  1,692
  1,759
  1,830
  1,906
  1,987
  2,073
  2,164
  2,260
  2,361
  2,469
  2,582
  2,702
  2,828
  2,961
  3,102
  3,249
  3,405
  3,568
  3,741
  3,922
  4,112
Funds from operations, $m
  1,044
  1,062
  1,082
  1,105
  1,129
  1,156
  1,185
  1,216
  1,250
  1,286
  1,324
  1,365
  1,408
  1,454
  1,503
  1,554
  1,609
  1,667
  1,728
  1,792
  1,860
  1,931
  2,007
  2,086
  2,170
  2,258
  2,350
  2,448
  2,550
  2,658
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
Cash from operations, $m
  1,036
  1,054
  1,073
  1,094
  1,117
  1,143
  1,171
  1,201
  1,233
  1,268
  1,305
  1,345
  1,387
  1,431
  1,479
  1,529
  1,582
  1,638
  1,698
  1,760
  1,826
  1,896
  1,969
  2,047
  2,128
  2,214
  2,304
  2,399
  2,499
  2,604
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1,254
  -1,279
  -1,308
  -1,342
  -1,379
  -1,421
  -1,467
  -1,517
  -1,571
  -1,629
  -1,692
  -1,759
  -1,830
  -1,906
  -1,987
  -2,073
  -2,164
  -2,260
  -2,361
  -2,469
  -2,582
  -2,702
  -2,828
  -2,961
  -3,102
  -3,249
  -3,405
  -3,568
  -3,741
  -3,922
New CAPEX, $m
  -247
  -291
  -333
  -374
  -414
  -454
  -495
  -535
  -577
  -619
  -662
  -707
  -752
  -800
  -849
  -899
  -952
  -1,007
  -1,064
  -1,123
  -1,185
  -1,250
  -1,317
  -1,388
  -1,462
  -1,539
  -1,620
  -1,705
  -1,793
  -1,886
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,501
  -1,570
  -1,641
  -1,716
  -1,793
  -1,875
  -1,962
  -2,052
  -2,148
  -2,248
  -2,354
  -2,466
  -2,582
  -2,706
  -2,836
  -2,972
  -3,116
  -3,267
  -3,425
  -3,592
  -3,767
  -3,952
  -4,145
  -4,349
  -4,564
  -4,788
  -5,025
  -5,273
  -5,534
  -5,808
Free cash flow, $m
  -465
  -516
  -568
  -621
  -676
  -733
  -791
  -852
  -915
  -981
  -1,049
  -1,121
  -1,196
  -1,275
  -1,357
  -1,443
  -1,534
  -1,628
  -1,728
  -1,832
  -1,941
  -2,056
  -2,176
  -2,303
  -2,435
  -2,574
  -2,721
  -2,874
  -3,035
  -3,204
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  191
  237
  271
  304
  337
  370
  402
  436
  469
  504
  539
  575
  612
  651
  690
  732
  774
  819
  865
  914
  964
  1,017
  1,072
  1,129
  1,189
  1,252
  1,318
  1,387
  1,459
  1,535
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  396
  448
  490
  534
  579
  626
  675
  726
  780
  836
  894
  955
  1,020
  1,087
  1,158
  1,232
  1,310
  1,392
  1,478
  1,569
  1,663
  1,763
  1,868
  1,977
  2,093
  2,214
  2,341
  2,474
  2,615
  2,762
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  587
  685
  761
  838
  916
  996
  1,077
  1,162
  1,249
  1,340
  1,433
  1,530
  1,632
  1,738
  1,848
  1,964
  2,084
  2,211
  2,343
  2,483
  2,627
  2,780
  2,940
  3,106
  3,282
  3,466
  3,659
  3,861
  4,074
  4,297
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  123
  169
  193
  216
  240
  263
  286
  310
  334
  359
  384
  409
  436
  463
  491
  521
  551
  583
  616
  650
  686
  724
  763
  804
  847
  891
  938
  987
  1,039
  1,092
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -396
  -448
  -490
  -534
  -579
  -626
  -675
  -726
  -780
  -836
  -894
  -955
  -1,020
  -1,087
  -1,158
  -1,232
  -1,310
  -1,392
  -1,478
  -1,569
  -1,663
  -1,763
  -1,868
  -1,977
  -2,093
  -2,214
  -2,341
  -2,474
  -2,615
  -2,762
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1,923
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,650
  -279
  -297
  -317
  -339
  -363
  -389
  -416
  -446
  -477
  -511
  -546
  -584
  -624
  -667
  -712
  -759
  -809
  -862
  -918
  -977
  -1,039
  -1,105
  -1,174
  -1,246
  -1,322
  -1,403
  -1,487
  -1,576
  -1,669
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,582
  -256
  -259
  -261
  -263
  -263
  -263
  -260
  -256
  -250
  -242
  -233
  -222
  -210
  -196
  -181
  -165
  -149
  -133
  -117
  -101
  -86
  -72
  -60
  -48
  -39
  -30
  -23
  -17
  -13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.4
  94.5
  91.6
  88.6
  85.5
  82.4
  79.3
  76.1
  73.0
  70.0
  66.9
  64.0
  61.1
  58.2
  55.4
  52.8
  50.2
  47.6
  45.2
  42.9
  40.6
  38.5
  36.4
  34.5
  32.6
  30.8
  29.1
  27.4
  25.9
  24.4

Newmont Mining Corporation is a mining company, which is focused on the production of and exploration for gold and copper. The Company is primarily a gold producer with operations and/or assets in the United States, Australia, Peru, Ghana and Suriname. The Company's segments include North America, South America, Asia Pacific and Africa. The Company's North America segment consists primarily of Carlin, Phoenix, Twin Creeks and Long Canyon in the state of Nevada, and Cripple Creek &Victor (CC&V) in the state of Colorado, in the United States. The Company's South America segment consists primarily of Yanacocha in Peru and Merian in Suriname. The Company's Asia Pacific segment consists primarily of Boddington, Tanami and Kalgoorlie in Australia. The Company's Africa segment consists primarily of Ahafo and Akyem in Ghana. As of December 31, 2016, it had gold reserves of 68.5 million ounces and an aggregate land position of approximately 23,000 square miles (59,000 square kilometers).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Newmont Mining (NEM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -28.4
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 37.8%
Total Debt to Equity 43%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Return On Total Capital -3.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Return On Equity -5.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.5%
EBITDA Margin 15%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
Operating Margin -1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Net Profit Margin -9.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Effective Tax Rate -263.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.2%
Payout Ratio -10.7%

NEM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NEM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7348 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Newmont Mining. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Newmont Mining. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NEM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NEM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Newmont Mining, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Newmont Mining.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NEM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NEM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Newmont Mining.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Newmont Mining. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NEM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NEM are equal to 168.9%.

Life of production assets of 9.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Newmont Mining operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NEM is equal to 4.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $10535 million for Newmont Mining - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 533.399 million for Newmont Mining is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Newmont Mining at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $17.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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